Nigeria on the Edge: Rising Violence, Economic Hardship and Weak Institutions Fuel Fears of State Failure

By George Omagbemi Sylvester

“A leading political scientist raises alarm over rising insecurity, weakening institutions, and economic policies that are deepening hardship for millions of Nigerians.”

Nigeria is facing a growing national crisis as insecurity spreads, democratic institutions weaken, and economic policies continue to deepen hardship for millions of citizens. The country is increasingly confronted with a dangerous convergence of political repression, worsening insecurity, and economic instability that many analysts warn could push the state toward systemic failure if urgent corrective actions are not taken.

Across the country, violence is spreading while government institutions that should safeguard democracy appear to be struggling to maintain credibility and independence. At the same time, economic reforms intended to stabilize the nation’s finances have imposed significant burdens on ordinary Nigerians already grappling with rising living costs.

Nigeria is currently confronting simultaneous challenges on several fronts. Insecurity remains one of the most pressing issues threatening national stability.

The insurgency led by Boko Haram and its splinter faction Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has persisted for more than a decade. Since the insurgency began in 2009, the conflict has killed more than 40,000 people and displaced over two million civilians in northeastern Nigeria.

Recent reports indicate that attacks on military formations have intensified, particularly around Maiduguri. Militants have continued to target security forces and civilian populations, raising fears that insurgent groups are attempting to strengthen their control in parts of the northeast.

Meanwhile, banditry and organized criminal networks have expanded across Nigeria’s northwest and north-central regions. Armed groups operate across territories stretching from Sokoto and Zamfara toward Niger and Kwara states, carrying out kidnappings, attacks on rural communities, and large-scale destruction of property.

States such as Borno, Zamfara, Sokoto, Benue, and Plateau continue to experience recurring violence, with communities frequently caught between insurgents, bandits, and overstretched security forces.

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Beyond the security crisis, concerns are also mounting over the state of Nigeria’s democratic institutions.

The judiciary, once widely regarded as a critical pillar of the country’s democracy, is increasingly perceived by critics as being vulnerable to political influence. Questions about judicial independence have intensified as legal decisions in politically sensitive cases continue to spark controversy.

Similarly, the role of the police has come under scrutiny. Critics argue that law enforcement agencies often focus heavily on protecting political elites and high-profile individuals while many communities remain exposed to crime and insecurity.

Such developments have fueled public debate about the strength of Nigeria’s institutional framework and its ability to uphold justice, accountability, and democratic governance.

At the same time, Nigeria’s economic situation continues to generate widespread public concern.

Economic reforms implemented under the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the national currency in 2023, were designed to stabilize public finances and attract investment. However, these policies have also contributed to a sharp rise in living costs.

Inflation, currency volatility, and increasing energy prices have significantly reduced the purchasing power of many Nigerian households. Electricity tariffs and various taxes have increased, placing additional pressure on citizens whose incomes have not kept pace with rising expenses.

While international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund have praised Nigeria’s macroeconomic reforms, many Nigerians argue that the benefits of these policies have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in their daily lives.

The agricultural sector provides a clear example of the difficulties currently facing the economy.

Nigeria spent roughly ₦51 billion on rice imports in 2024, signaling a reversal of earlier efforts aimed at achieving self-sufficiency in rice production. Rising production costs, expensive energy, and limited access to affordable financing have forced many farmers to abandon rice cultivation.

Farmers in major agricultural states such as Kano, Kebbi, and Jigawa are reportedly exiting rice production due to mounting losses. At the same time, local rice mills that once flourished are struggling to compete with cheaper imported rice.

Industry leaders have warned that Nigeria’s rice value chain could face serious collapse if current conditions persist. Many mills are now operating far below capacity, with high fuel costs and interest rates making it difficult to sustain operations.

Political tensions are also beginning to rise as the country gradually moves toward the 2027 general elections.

Observers warn that the normalization of political intimidation or violence could weaken democratic competition. History shows that democracies rarely collapse suddenly; instead, they erode gradually as intimidation, coercion, and reprisals become more common in political life.

If such trends continue, elections may still take place formally while the deeper democratic meaning of political participation becomes diminished.

Nigeria now faces what many observers describe as a defining moment in its modern history. The combination of insecurity, economic hardship, and institutional fragility presents serious challenges that require decisive leadership and comprehensive policy responses.

Strengthening democratic institutions, improving security coordination, and implementing economic policies that genuinely improve citizens’ living conditions will be essential to stabilizing the country.

Without meaningful reforms and renewed commitment to accountable governance, Nigeria risks drifting closer to a scenario that many citizens fear—a nation struggling to protect its people, sustain its economy, and preserve the democratic ideals upon which its republic was built.

U.S. Places $10 Million Bounty on Iran’s New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

By George Omagbemi Sylvester

“Washington Escalates Pressure on Tehran’s Leadership Amid Intensifying Middle East Tensions.”

The United States government has announced a $10 million reward for information leading to the whereabouts of Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, in a move widely interpreted as a significant escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran. The development comes amid an already volatile geopolitical environment in the Middle East, where hostilities involving Iran and its regional adversaries have intensified in recent weeks.

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On Friday, March 13, 2026, the U.S. State Department made the announcement through its “Rewards for Justice” programme, a long-standing initiative designed to encourage individuals around the world to provide information that helps the United States identify, track, and disrupt individuals linked to international terrorism or threats to global security. Under the programme, individuals who supply credible and actionable intelligence could receive financial compensation and, in some cases, relocation assistance to ensure their safety.

According to U.S. officials, the reward specifically targets information related to Mojtaba Khamenei and several senior Iranian officials believed to be connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a powerful military and political force within Iran. The United States has designated the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organisation, accusing it of coordinating militant networks across the Middle East and supporting groups involved in attacks against American interests and allies.

Officials in Washington argue that the bounty is part of a broader effort to increase pressure on Iran’s leadership structure, particularly at a time when tensions between Iran and Western powers are reaching dangerous levels. U.S. authorities maintain that identifying and tracking individuals involved in international militant activities remains essential to safeguarding global security and preventing further escalation in the region.

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The development also follows a dramatic shift in Iran’s leadership earlier this year. Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reportedly assumed the role of Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the death of his father. Ali Khamenei, who served as Iran’s Supreme Leader for more than three decades, was reportedly killed during joint U.S.–Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, an operation that marked one of the most significant confrontations between Iran and its adversaries in recent history.

Although the circumstances surrounding the elder Khamenei’s death remain contested in some quarters, the event has undeniably reshaped Iran’s political and religious leadership. The rise of Mojtaba Khamenei to the country’s highest authority has drawn international attention, partly because of his relatively limited public political profile compared with other senior Iranian figures.

Reports from various international sources suggest that Mojtaba Khamenei himself may have sustained injuries during the same wave of attacks that claimed his father’s life. Since assuming the leadership role, he has rarely appeared in public, choosing instead to communicate through written statements or messages delivered by intermediaries. This limited visibility has fueled speculation about his health, security arrangements, and the internal dynamics of Iran’s ruling establishment.

Analysts say the United States’ decision to offer a financial reward for information about Iran’s new Supreme Leader is likely to heighten diplomatic tensions and provoke strong reactions from Tehran. Iranian officials have historically condemned similar measures as violations of international norms and evidence of hostile intent by Western powers.

At the same time, the move underscores the increasingly confrontational posture adopted by Washington as geopolitical rivalries intensify across the Middle East. Security experts note that the region is already grappling with multiple flashpoints, including proxy conflicts, maritime security threats, and growing competition for strategic influence.

For many observers, the bounty announcement also highlights the information war that often accompanies military and political confrontations. In periods of heightened conflict, intelligence gathering, psychological operations, and strategic messaging frequently become as significant as traditional military engagements.

Critics of the U.S. decision warn that publicly offering a bounty on the head of a sitting national leader could further destabilise an already fragile regional environment. They argue that such actions risk escalating hostilities and complicating diplomatic efforts aimed at reducing tensions between Iran and Western governments.

Supporters of the move, however, contend that the measure is intended to disrupt networks linked to militant activities and demonstrate Washington’s determination to confront perceived threats emanating from Iran’s leadership circles.

As the geopolitical contest between the United States and Iran continues to evolve, the announcement of the $10 million bounty represents another chapter in a long-running confrontation that has shaped Middle Eastern politics for decades. Whether the move will yield actionable intelligence or simply deepen the rift between the two nations remains uncertain.

What is clear, however, is that the stakes in the region are rising, and decisions taken by global powers in the coming months could significantly influence the trajectory of security and stability across the Middle East.

*Oyo Teachers Hold Solemn Assembly, Pray for Peace, Security*

Teachers in Oyo State have been urged to be steadfast in prayers for the State Wing Executive Council of the Nigeria Union of Teachers (NUT) and Oyo State.

The Chairman, NUT, Oyo State wing, Comrade Raji Oladimeji made the call on Thursday during a Solemn Assembly held at the Union’s headquarters in Ibadan.

The Nigeria Union of Teachers (NUT) holds an annual Solemn Assembly in Ibadan to commit the union’s activities, teachers’ welfare, and Oyo State into God’s hands through prayers led by Christian and Muslim clerics.

Comrade Oladimeji said the programme was designed to draw the leadership of the Union and the entire members closer to God, stressing that nothing was impossible with God.

Comrade Oladimeji said: “We pray to God to lead us, and to teach us what we need to know and what we need to do. We are here today to surrender our petitions to the Lord God. We believe He will hear us and our demands will come to pass”.

The NUT Chairman revealed that a lot was being done to improve the welfare of Oyo teachers, expressing confidence that Governor Seyi Makinde’s administration in improving on the welfare of teachers in the state.

He applauded relevant government agencies, such as Oyo State Universal Basic Education Board, OYOSUBEB, Oyo State Post-Primary Teaching Service Commission, TESCOM, and the Ministry of Education for prioritising the welfare of teachers.

Oladimeji equally appreciated the National President, NUT, Com. Audu Titus Amba for his relentless advocacy for improved teacher welfare, and his efforts in ensuring better working conditions across the country.

He therefore charged the teachers to be role models to their pupils and students.

Oladimeji also emphasized the need for teachers to seek the face of God in their lives to be able to discharge their duties aright.

In their separate sermons, Pastor (Mrs) Margaret ‘Dayo Akinrinde, from the Redeemed Christian Church of God, RCCG Oyo Province 2, Ibadan and Comrade Alh. Haroon Lawal, a retired Permanent Secretary likened teachers to a Shephard who dedicated much of His time to caring for His flock, further describing the teachers as the “shepherds of our generation”.

Consequently, the Union also donated welfare materials to teachers in the 33 local government areas of the State.

The items which include customized clothing materials and other items were distributed to NUT leaders for onward distribution to the teachers.

While distributing the items, the Chairman, Com. Raji Oladimeji informed members that the materials were given to appreciate the efforts that teachers have been putting into the education of students.

The event, which was attended by relevant authorities, and teachers from across the state, featured Quran and Bible readings, prayer session for the leadership of the NUT at all levels, for teachers across the country, for Union staff and for the entire workforce of Nigeria, amongst other prayer points.