Business
Fuel Subsidy: Nigeria Faces Existential Threat- World bank
Fuel Subsidy: Nigeria Faces Existential Threat- World bank
The World Bank on Wednesday raised the alarm that Nigeria might be facing an existential threat.
The warning comes in the wake of Nigeria’s dwindling revenue, the continued payment of trillions of naira on fuel subsidy by the government and the attendant economic challenges it has brought.
The international financial institution warned that if the country failed to optimise its tax system and focus on other areas to boost its revenue, the already low revenue would continue to drop. It noted that despite the rise in the price of oil in the international market, Nigeria had not reaped the benefits because of the huge amount spent on fuel subsidy.
The Senior Public Sector Specialist, Domestic Resource Mobilisation, at the World Bank, Mr Rajul Awasthi, said these at a virtual pre-summit, with the theme ‘Critical Tax Reforms for Shared Prosperity’, organised by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group on Wednesday. He insisted Nigeria would have to eliminate the subsidy regime eventually.
After the Federal Government earmarked about N4tn for subsidy payment in 2022, the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, said recently that government might spend a whopping N6.72tn as fuel subsidy in 2023 or pay N3.36tn up to mid-2023 if the subsidy regime would was to end in May 2023.
Also, the minister had consistently said the nation was battling with revenue problems, which had compelled the government to keep borrowing. The debt stock had risen to N41.6tn in the first quarter of 2022 with projections that it could peak at N45tn by the end of the year. Nigeria is rated the fifth on the list of the World Bank’s debtors, with $11.7bn debt stock as of June 30, 2021.
The International Monetary Fund had in March projected that Nigeria might spend 93 per cent of its revenue on debt servicing in 2022, but the minister disclosed a few weeks ago that about 119 per cent of the country’s revenue was spent on debt servicing. This implied that government had to borrow to meet its debt financing obligations, a development many economists had described as disturbing and unsustainable.
The virtual event, anchored by the PwC’s Fiscal Policy Partner and Thematic Lead, NESG Fiscal Policy and Planning Thematic Group, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, was attended by several stakeholders, including the representative of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria and the Executive Secretary of the Joint Tax Board, Mrs Nana-Aisha Obomeghie.
Meanwhile, in a slide he shared during his presentation, which showed Nigeria’s Development Update, Awasthi explained that between 2015 and 2019, Nigeria’s non-oil revenues were among the lowest in the world and as a result the second lowest in spending, and that oil revenues were also falling even when oil prices were higher.
He stated, “Nigeria has the largest economy in Africa and the largest country in Africa by population, so it is critical to Africa’s progress. There is no doubt about that. But the government of Nigeria, from the public finance perspective, is really facing an existential threat. Let’s not downplay the situation. That is the actual reality.
“Nigeria is 115th out of 115 countries in terms of the average revenue to Gross Domestic Product ratio. Despite the oil prices rising the way they have been, net oil and gas revenues have been coming down because of the tremendous impact of the subsidy.
“So, what is going to happen in 2022? The federation’s revenues are going to be significantly lower. They are already very low, and Nigeria is already the lowest in the world out of 115 large countries and this year, it’s really going to be lower than what it was in 2020 because of the debilitating impact of fuel subsidy.”
On the perennial low revenue from tax in Nigeria, a former Finance Minister and Ahmed’s predecessor, Mrs Kemi Adeosun, had in 2017 revealed that only 214 persons in Nigeria paid N20m and above as tax and that most active taxpayers in the country were people whose PAYE were deducted from source. She had also decried the low tax to GDP ratio at about six per cent, which she described as the lowest in the world and far below the 18 per cent average on the continent.
Speaking on how to get out of the woods, Awasthi stated that in the non-oil sector, Value Added Tax compliance gaps were immense and they needed to be breached as well as rationalise tax expenditures.
Citing the tax expenditure statement of the Budget Office in 2020, he said, “The VAT gap in 2019 was over N3.1tn whereas the collection was N1.2tn. Of that gap, about two-thirds, which is about N2tn, came from compliance gaps. That’s a serious issue that needs to be addressed. It’s because of this that we have a low tax base and a lot of people feel they are being overtaxed.”
He also stressed the need for technology deployment in tax administration and data sharing between the Federal Inland Revenue Service and the states’ Internal revenue services to boost the revenue from personal income tax. He also called for an increase in the tax levied on certain goods, like wine, cigarettes and beer.
He added, “Property taxes at the state and local government levels are also critical. Nigeria has a tremendous potential, with about 50 million households, taxable properties and there are many rich people who need to be paying property taxes. There is a tremendous opportunity there.
“Also, I think there is a huge opportunity to raise excise on goods like beer, wine, spirit and cigarettes. There is a very tiny tax that has been introduced on them and this could be higher. These are the kinds of things that across the world there is a consensus that these rates should be higher because they are supposed to attack and address negative externalities of these products.
“There is also a need to reform the fuel subsidy regime, moving towards its full elimination at least by 2024. Nigeria needs to roll back the PMC subsidies and adopt the free market price. This is critical for this country. There is also the need to improve revenue from cross-border transactions and other international tax measures.”
While calling for increased enlightenment of the taxpayers, which he said the World Bank was collaborating with the World Bank to achieve, he noted that tax laws needed to be modernised and strengthened for a better outcome.
He added, “Going forward, the approach to revenue mobilisation has to be more strategic. We need to be more strategic and it’s not just about taxing more, Nigeria needs to tax better. We need to review the collection system and not just about what to collect and from who. There have been discussions about how the tax system has to be progressive and efficient in terms of compliance and making sure we are targeting the right tax bases.”
In his submission, the Director-General of MAN, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadiri, represented by the Director of Mr Oluwasegun Osidipe, said there was no doubt that the country needed money but that the government must exercise caution in introducing more taxes.
He tasked the government to expand the tax base, ensure the inclusion of more people in the informal sector and make the tax system progressive such that the rich would pay more than the poor.
…Dangote, an Entrepreneurial Genius, Providing Innovative Solutions’
The President/Chief Executive, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, has urged young entrepreneurs and scholars to rise above limitations and push their ambitions to help transform the world into a better place.
The prominent industrialist made this call on Wednesday when a delegation of Harvard Kennedy School scholars visited the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals complex and Dangote Fertiliser Limited in Ibeju Lekki, Lagos.
Addressing the 50 scholars, representing 18 different nationalities from across the globe, Dangote emphasised the importance of being driven by ambition and a ‘can-do’ spirit, as exemplified by the Dangote Group in constructing the world’s largest single-train refinery.
He stressed that ambition should be paired with a desire to create a legacy and make an impact, not simply for profit.
“Life is not worth living without ambition. In this life, nothing is impossible. Don’t allow fear to hold you back. Be knowledgeable about the business you want to pursue. I am not an engineer, but I don’t engage in any business I don’t understand,” he said.
Dangote, who spent over 40 minutes answering questions from the scholars, recalled being advised against building the refinery, as many argued that such mega projects were only feasible for sovereign nations, not individuals. He shared that, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the company had to find ways to sustain the project. He also noted that the ingenuity involved in constructing a world-class refinery, which meets global best practices, produces Euro V products, and is capable of processing over 100 different types of crude oil, has kept it running despite shortage of Nigerian crude oil.
Vice President, Oil & Gas, Dangote Group, Edwin Devakumar, explained that building the 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery was a monumental feat that required immense courage, vision, and determination. He pointed out that the group acted as its own Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contractor for the project – a refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day – a feat that had never been attempted before.
“Our Group President has a plaque in his office that reads, ‘nothing is impossible.’ This is the mindset he instilled in us when faced with challenges. He does not accept impossibilities and always aims for excellence. This approach was the same when we revolutionised the cement industry in Nigeria. We turned the country from one of the largest importers of cement into a net exporter. Today, after decades of depending on imported refined products, we now have the capacity to meet all of Nigeria’s refined product demands, with surplus supplies of jet A1, gasoline, and diesel for export. Other products from the refinery include polypropylene, carbon black feedstock, and sulphur,” he said.
Devakumar highlighted the significant investments made to realise the project, including dredging 65 million cubic metres of sand to raise the height of the site by 1.5 metres to safeguard against potential sea level rises due to global warming. The group also procured 330 cranes and lifting equipment due to the lack of local capacity, built the world’s largest granite quarry to supply materials such as coarse aggregates, stone columns, and stone dust, and constructed the refinery on 250,000 piles – potentially the largest number ever used for a single project.
The scholars, who toured the magnificent complexes, were in awe and praised Dangote for his ambitious vision, which seeks to address global needs. They commended him as an inspiration and entrepreneurial genius, with many describing the visit to the refinery as the highlight of their tour, which also included stops in Ghana and Abuja.
Sheffy Kolade, leader of the Harvard Kennedy School student-led Nigeria-Ghana Trek and a global advisor for the Women for Prosperity project with the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Center, said that the Dangote Group symbolises Nigeria’s resilience and economic transformation.
“I want to start by saying that the Dangote Group is not just a business. It is a symbol of Nigeria’s resilience. It is a symbol of the bright future that lies ahead for us. It represents the extraordinary achievements possible when we put our minds to something. I am happy that we are here to witness the economic progress happening in Nigeria. We’ve seen the largest single-train refinery in the world, and we’ve visited a fertiliser plant that exports to South America and the US,” she said.
A social entrepreneur and a member of the Forbes Business Council, Kolade added, “From where we are standing, thousands of people earn their daily livelihood. This business has created numerous jobs and energy security for our country. It has reduced our reliance on imported petroleum products, and, of course, it is increasing our foreign reserves. I want to thank you, sir, for everything you’re doing for our country and for Africa. We appreciate it. It’s truly inspiring for us.”
Speaking about her team and their mission at the refinery, Kolade noted, “My team consists of 50 people from 18 different nationalities. We have people from nearly every continent. We are a blend of policy, business, sustainability, and development-minded individuals, most of whom are from the Harvard Kennedy School. There’s one from the Harvard Business School, one from Harvard Public Health, and others pursuing joint degrees with Harvard, Stanford, and MIT. We are all curious-minded people who value impact, sustainability, and progress.”
Another member of the team, Darrow Merton, a Foreign Service Officer with the United States, described Dangote’s vision and resilience as an inspiration to entrepreneurs. He praised Dangote for not only breaking barriers to build the refinery but also for his ability to provide innovative solutions in the face of adversity.
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