THE POLITICAL MORALITY OF 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
On Monday the 29th of March, Kaduna state, North-West Nigeria was agog with the 12th Bola Ahmed Tinubu Colloquium, an annual ritual to celebrate the birthday of former Lagos State Governor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The Colloquium, initiated 12 years ago by a group of loyalists of the National Leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) led by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, was a colorful gathering of notable dignitaries who attended both in person and virtually, including President Muhammadu Buhari, the Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, the Senate President, Ahmed Lawan and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila, state governors, ministers and a couple of foreign presidents, including George Weah of Liberia.
This year’s edition, no doubt took a different dramatic structure that started first with Tinubu at the weekend delivering a lecture at the Arewa’s annual lecture, a robust strategic power play designed to intimidate potential opponents during the crunch APC primaries. It is equally a strong pointer to demonstrate his growing acceptance by the Northern establishment and an indication that his rumoured ambition to succeed President Buhari in 2023 may after all be real and gaining traction around the country.
Though the APC Leader has not officially declared to run, Nigerians will never easily forget that he played maximum strategic roles in showing the Pdp the red card through the exit in 2015 when Jonathan lost his bid for a second tenure. His deft moves and body language speaks volume. The APC succeeded in 2015 largely through his large army of strategists like Chief Tom Ikimi, Alhaji Shekarau, a two-term former Governor of the defunct ANPP in Kano State. I had also played a key role with Lai Mohammed to mobilize a national network of frontline Journalists under George Moghalu, former Secretary of the ANPP Caretaker Committee that midwifed the APC.
Notwithstanding the power show Bola Tinubu is putting up publicly, l don’t believe it will be an easy walkover for him to win the presidency without a serious rofo-rofo fight from within the APC and some hawks within the presidency who may pose a cog in his wheel. I think that the flurry of activities by associates of the former governor, with the launching of the Bola Tinubu support organizations across the country, are all geared towards the 2023 presidential contest. The wild receptions and jubilation with which he was welcomed to Kaduna the Kaduna Airport and on the streets of Kano have more than confirmed that Tinubu is not just eyeing the presidency but has a well-oiled support base working across the country.
Tinubu’s 69th birthday also attracted glowing tributes from the high and mighty, starting from President Buhari, who eulogized the party leader for his contributions to the development of the country, describing him as a patriot and statesman.
An intimidating statement by Femi Adesina, Buhari’s spokesman read: “President Muhammadu Buhari joins the governing party, All Progressives Congress, and its teeming members in congratulating Asiwaju Bola Tinubu on his 69th birthday, March 29, 2021, sharing the joyous occasion with the former two-term governor of Lagos State, whose acumen and influence continue to resonate around the country and beyond.
“The President rejoices with the ‘patriot and statesman’ on the 12th colloquium, an intellectual gathering to commemorate his birthday, that had over the years turned into a veritable opportunity for discussing topical national issues, and harnessing ideas that will move the nation forward.” These are powerful eulogies coming from a sitting and outgoing president in 2023.
On his part, the President of the Senate, Ahmed Lawan said: “A leader of leaders, political strategist and astute administrator, Asiwaju Tinubu has in three decades of active roles in the politics of Nigeria impacted many lives and greatly contributed to improving the polity”, while his deputy, Ovie Omo-Agege, praised Tinubu as working for the growth of Nigeria’s democracy.
“Without question, you have written your name in gold. You have devoted your life to public service with extraordinary courage, resilience, and tenacity of purpose. We appreciate your patriotic commitment to nation-building”, Omo-Agage said.
Femi Gbajabiamila, Tinubu’s unrepentant ally and Speaker of the House of Representatives, hailed Tinubu as living a fulfilled life others must emulate.
“The Jagaban of Borgu kingdom means many positive things to different people. To some, he is an emancipator; to others, he is a great philanthropist. Yet, to some people, Asiwaju is a rallying point, a unifying pillar. His democratic credentials are unrivaled. His philanthropic activities transcend borders. To the Asiwaju, life is nothing without touching the lives of people”, Gbajabiamila said glowingly of his leader.
The ruling party, APC, in a statement by its National Chairman Caretaker/Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee, Mai Mala Buni, said Tinubu is not just a man of excellence but a true democrat and a great leader.
“As a leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is passionate about the future of the people; as a developmental democrat, he is a proponent of due process and rule of law. His humble and humane disposition made him a great philanthropist. The APC family is proud of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s many achievements”, the ruling party said, while the Progressives Governors Forum (PGF), said the governors elected on the platform of the APC “will always continue to look up to you (Tinubu) for inspiring guidance.”
On his part, Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State, one of the beneficiaries of Tinubu’s political leadership in the South-West, described him as a distinguished Nigerian and a reliable leader.
“Asiwaju Tinubu’s ability to identify, nurture and engage talents is unequalled. His life has been a testimony of human capital development in an unrelenting struggle for a better life for the people,” the Ekiti Governor said, while the Northern Governors Forum described Tinubu as an accomplished politician and seasoned administrator, whose strides in the nation’s socio-political landscape have remained outstanding.
The NGF also described the former Lagos State Governor as a politician, statesman, and patriot, who exemplifies vision, dexterity, and versatility in the course of nation-building and national dialogue, adding that he is a bridge-builder, who has continued to work for unity, peace, and progress of Nigeria, as well as consistently offering wise counsel toward addressing national issues.
Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, Tinubu’s latest beneficiary in the Centre of Excellence, also has kind words for him, describing him as a visionary leader and a rare mentor with exceptional abilities in various areas of human endeavors.
He also credited his mentor and benefactor as a political pathfinder, nationalist, and detribalized Nigerian, who has contributed in no small measure to the socio-political and economic growth of Lagos State and Nigeria as a whole.
“As a pathfinder, Asiwaju charted the developmental trajectory of modern Lagos, raising the bar of governance and public service in the State and indeed, Nigeria.
“A cheerful giver who cares about the welfare of the people, Asiwaju personifies tolerance and humanity. The story of Nigeria’s democracy cannot be told without the name of the Jagaban Borgu written in gold. Thousands are today direct beneficiaries of his political benevolence”, Sanwo-Olu said.
On the face value, the APC ticket should have been given to him but the current realities within the party, especially in his home zone of South-West, point to an apparent groundswell of opposition, and he may as a result of that face a stiff opposition, even from among his trusted allies.
Among such associates and former allies allegedly opposing his ambition from the South-West are the Ekiti State Governor, Fayemi, who is also the Chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum, a position that has given him national prominence, and former Ogun State Governor, Ibikunle Amosun, who is a serving Senator.
In a recent television interview, Fayemi parried questions on his rumoured presidential ambition, choosing to go spiritual by saying God will reveal what he has for him in due course, while in another breath, he said there is no politician that will not be excited with the prospect of becoming president.
While Fayemi has failed to deny his potential opposition to his benefactor, Amosun, who has been unusually quiet lately, is believed to be actively banking on his famed closeness to President Buhari since their days in the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), for the actualization of his ambition.
Also, within the South-West is a greater form of opposition to Tinubu’s ambition, with growing followership. This group includes both the young and the old, especially those who are yet to forgive him for the role he played in bringing the current administration of President Muhammadu Buhari to power, seen by them as the worst thing to have happened to the region.
Leading this group is the Yoruba social-cultural organisation, Afenifere, whose leaders have consistently vowed to oppose and work against Tinubu’s ambition to become president. For them, they have every reason to oppose the former governor, who they accused of selling Yoruba people to the Hausa/Fulani.
Among this group are also younger elements in the region, some of whom are supporters of Yoruba self-determination groups, agitating for Oduduwa Republic. For these younger elements, Tinubu is only wasting his time, as they insisted there won’t be an election in 2023, especially in their ‘Oduduwa Republic ‘.This group also has an axe to grind with the APC National Leader, accusing him of criminal silence in the face of the murderous activities of Fulani herdsmen in the region, while others dismissed his late coming statement on the herders’ crisis in the zone as a mere exercise in political correctness.
The new leader of the Afenifere, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, however, has a different view of Tinubu’s ambition, as he believes the former Lagos State governor is merely engaging in a wild goose chase. According to him, Tinubu is only deceiving himself if he thinks President Buhari will hand over to him.
“I have said it openly before and I would say it again that Buhari is deceiving Tinubu and Tinubu is deceiving Buhari. I’m an old man and I’m a funeral candidate already, so quote me. If Tinubu contests the primary in APC today, he will fail.
“When I say Buhari is fake and he has a private agenda, I know what I’m saying. He wants Fulani to take over and that was why he allowed them to come in. When we ask them about the herders killing people, they would say they are foreigners.”
The Afenifere leader however called on Tinubu and others to retrace their steps and queue behind the demand for the restructuring of the country.
“I have always told them, from Tinubu downwards, that it’s better they save themselves speedily. I’m talking to all of them, that in the interest of Yorubaland and the country, they should get out of the carcass they call APC. I made a public pronouncement that they were a conglomeration of incompatibles. It’s on record. I said it then and I’m still saying it now; if they don’t save themselves early enough, then they are ready for a disaster.”
For me, enforcing a strong geopolitical balance in Nigeria’s polity breeds sociopolitical stability. Basically, having another president from the southwest zone after Obasanjo’s 2-term tenure as president amounts to political immorality. Period! Any sort of jaundiced or bereft political calculations that excludes the Southeast with regard to 2023 will amount to geopolitical gang-up against the zone. That will be unfair for a zone that is feverish about the development of the Nigerian Project. Speaking with Dr. Law Mefor, the National Coordinator of the PROJECT NIGERIAN PRESIDENT OF THE SOUTHEAST who literally started the frenzy about a president from the Southeast says: “The basic logic proving that the South East is next in line to produce the President of Nigeria in 2023 is predicated on the zoning within rotation principle which has been the convention since the return of Nigeria to democracy in 1999“. Note that the principle has two parts: the first part is a rotation between North and Southern Nigeria. We saw it with Obasanjo/Falae, with Yar’Adua/Atiku/ Buhari, with Goodluck Jonathan vs Buhari in which Buhari won based on that same sentiment that power ought to shift North in 2015. Then in 2019 when it was Buhari and Atiku – all northerners in the 2 two main political parties, APC and PDP.
Power having stayed in the North for two straight terms of 8 years, by the same rotation principle, the power ought to move South in 2023.
The second part of the principle is zoning within the rotation. It simply means that power rotates also between the part of the country to produce the President of Nigeria. And since South-South and South West have both produced Nigerian President in this dispensation, in the persons of Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan, the principle in question leaves the South East as the only logical zone to produce the South Nigerian President.
In its wisdom and patriotic zeal, the PDP has allowed power to rotate between North and South and made it both a manifesto and a constitutional matter. What this means is that going by the party constitution, which outlays where its presidential candidate must come from between North and South Nigeria, the subsisting principle of rotation leaves PDP with no political party with an option. Those encouraging the political parties to violate this Convention such as Tinubu are unfairly bent on obliterating the interest of the southeast to produce the President of the Country based on zoning in rotation principle.
In fact, based on this principle of zoning within the rotation, both the North and the South aspirants cannot vie for the presidential ticket in the parties’ primaries or convention at the same time. One divide – either North or South – is barred since the express acclamation of one is an express exclusion of the other. In the case of 2023, northern aspirants cannot vie if they really love Nigeria, equity, and justice.
In the avalanche of well-qualified persons for Nigerian President of Igbo/South East extraction, I can easily single out 4, namely: Peter Obi, who has maintained visibility and is known to have integrity and strong on the economy. Though he is still reluctant to declare for President and seems to be still hiding in the shadows of Atiku. In the same PDP, I can also easily see Anyim Pius Anyim. He has played at the apex levels in both the Legislature and the Executive as Senate President and SGF. He is also a consummate politician and well-educated. I hope he doesn’t have a hard time explaining to Ndigbo what he did for them with such positions. The man I see in APC is Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, another thoroughbred, consummate politician, knowledgeable, and a team player. He has been governor and now a minister. I am unsure of the value chain he brings to the table of Nigerians as a Minister. Though some say he is too quiet and could be a weak President I think Nigeria needs such a bridge builder now to reconnect North and South and inspire confidence in Nigeria and engender unity.
Nigerians may also look to the corporate world and there, Igbos qualified to govern Nigeria creditably and acquit themselves with distinction are also an avalanche. Top on the list should Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa, the President of the Pharmaceutical Association of Nigeria. He may not be a politician but he is sufficiently politically exposed. My problem with Ibo kinsmen is the who will bell the cat syndrome.