Business
Tinubu’s Economic Agenda in Crisis: North-South Divide Strikes Again
Tinubu’s Economic Agenda in Crisis: North-South Divide Strikes Again
By George Omagbemi Sylvester
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, elected in 2023 on the wings of political calculation and elite manipulation, has now found himself caught in the snare of Nigeria’s enduring historical curse: the north-south divide. His ambitious economic reform agenda, intended to liberalize the economy, remove structural inefficiencies, and reduce government expenditure—has hit a legislative wall. But this isn’t just about policy. This is about power, patronage, and the ancient scars of a fractured federation.
The rejection of critical aspects of Tinubu’s economic proposals by lawmakers is a stinging rebuke, not only to his administration but to the very idea that Nigeria can be reformed from the top down without confronting its structural imbalances. In many ways, Tinubu’s presidency is now facing the same nightmare that has haunted every Nigerian leader since independence: how do you govern a country that was never truly united?
The Crumbling Reform Agenda
At the center of the storm is Tinubu’s proposal to centralize and streamline federal subsidies and remove what he termed “wasteful duplication of agencies.” This was meant to continue the subsidy removal narrative started in June 2023, and reduce fiscal leakage. However, the backlash, particularly from legislators representing the northern states, was swift and coordinated.
The northern bloc, comprising lawmakers from Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Borno, objected on the grounds that Tinubu’s proposals disproportionately affect their regions, where federal allocation remains a critical lifeline in the absence of strong internally generated revenue. But critics argue this is a strategic form of sabotage, aimed at retaining an unsustainable status quo that prioritizes political patronage over national progress.
As Prof. Wale Adebanwi of Oxford University has argued, “Nigeria’s northern elite have historically benefited from the spoils of a rentier state, with oil wealth redistributed without the burden of productive contribution. Any move to reverse this equation is seen as existential.”
Tinubu, a southerner from Lagos, with strong Christian support from the Southwest and Southeast, is now facing the very brick wall that has impeded reforms since the First Republic. His own political survival now depends on how much compromise he’s willing to make—or whether he can break the mold entirely.
A Century-Old Fracture
The rejection of Tinubu’s reforms by northern lawmakers is not new. It is deeply rooted in a century-old tension embedded in the structure of the Nigerian state. The 1914 amalgamation, engineered by British colonialists, fused two vastly different regions, the industrializing, Western-educated Christian south and the feudal, Islamic north, into one artificial political entity.
From independence in 1960, this contradiction has remained unresolved. “Nigeria was created not to function as a cohesive nation, but as an economic convenience for its colonial masters,” noted historian Max Siollun. “What we’re seeing is the consequence of a nation built on convenience rather than consensus.”
The economic priorities of the north and south remain deeply divergent. While the south boasts ports, oil revenue, industries, and a growing tech sector, the north has remained largely agrarian, dependent on federal allocations and political appointments. Any attempt to tamper with this redistribution—whether via subsidy removal or cuts in federal spending, provokes immediate resistance.
Reform vs. Redistribution
Tinubu’s administration promised reforms: subsidy removal, tax reform, and investment in critical infrastructure. But all reforms require sacrifices, and those sacrifices must be nationally distributed to succeed. What Tinubu is discovering, painfully, is that reforms without inclusive buy-in are dead on arrival.
Economist Dr. Obiageli Ezekwesili captured the challenge succinctly: “Nigeria’s political economy is structured around the sharing of oil rents, not the creation of wealth. Any attempt to disrupt this structure will provoke fierce opposition from those who depend on the current dysfunction for survival.”
Indeed, the loudest resistance to Tinubu’s reforms has come not from the opposition PDP or Labour Party, but from within his own APC, particularly from northern senators and representatives who feel alienated by the president’s southern-centric economic vision.
The Ghost of Buhari
Many Nigerians are now drawing comparisons between Tinubu’s presidency and that of his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, a northern Muslim who governed with overwhelming support from the north. Buhari’s policies favored heavy spending, a bloated civil service, and minimal economic restructuring, a model that created illusions of stability while deepening the economic rot.
“Buhari governed like a tribal chief, rewarding loyalty over competence, and expanding a culture of dependency,” said Prof. Kingsley Moghalu, former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank. “Tinubu’s efforts to break away from that legacy will require courage, strategy, and above all, an appeal to national interest.”
But appealing to national interest in Nigeria is easier said than done. The political class thrives on division. The north fears marginalization, the south resents over-centralization, and the middle belt remains trapped in identity crises. Tinubu, in failing to build a coalition around his reforms, is now paying the price of elite disunity.
The Danger of Ethno-Political Paralysis
The rejection of Tinubu’s agenda is not just a political problem, it is an economic time bomb. Nigeria is drowning in debt, with over 90% of its revenue now going to debt servicing. Inflation is running rampant, the naira has crashed, and unemployment remains alarmingly high. The country cannot afford to maintain the current level of government spending without reform.
But if every economic policy must first pass the tribal test, then reform is doomed. “A nation that filters every economic decision through the lens of ethnicity is a nation marching toward collapse,” warned Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka. “If Nigeria cannot rise above its primordial divisions, it cannot survive the 21st century.”
What Next for Tinubu?
Tinubu’s next steps are critical. Will he revise his reforms to appease northern lawmakers and keep the political peace? Or will he double down, use executive power, and mobilize the Nigerian people behind a populist push for structural change?
There is a middle path, dialogue, renegotiation of the federal structure, and regional empowerment. Many have called for fiscal federalism, where regions generate and control their own revenues, sending only a fraction to the center. This model, already practiced in countries like Canada and the United States, could reduce the perennial tension around federal allocation.
Political economist Ayo Teriba suggests, “Nigeria must move away from revenue-sharing to revenue-generation. That shift requires not just policy but a new national consensus, and that is where Tinubu must lead.”
In conclusion: Lead or Collapse
President Tinubu is at a crossroads. He can continue playing the dangerous game of balancing regional interests with national imperatives, or he can rise above the tribal chessboard and lead with boldness. The north-south divide is not just a historical relic, it is a living cancer that must be addressed through structural reform, not rhetorical appeasement.
The economic reform agenda is not a southern agenda. It is a Nigerian necessity. If lawmakers continue to sabotage reform because it threatens their regional comfort zones, then the entire nation will suffer. As the saying goes, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.”
In the end, Tinubu must decide: will he be a president of compromise, or a reformer of consequence?
RABIU, ELUMELU ALIGN ON CAPITAL, SCALE, AND INDUSTRIAL EXPANSION AS BUA FOODS POSTS N1.77 TRILLION REVENUE, N28 DIVIDEND
Lagos, Nigeria | March 31, 2026
Nigeria’s industrial and financial heavyweights moved to deepen a partnership that has quietly underpinned decades of enterprise growth, as the Founder and Chairman of BUA Group, Abdul Samad Rabiu, hosted the Chairman of United Bank for Africa, Tony Elumelu and his executive management team at BUA Group’s corporate headquarters in Lagos.
More than a visit, the engagement brought together two institutions whose alignment of capital and industrial capacity has consistently translated into scale, execution, and long-term value creation across Nigeria and Africa’s economy.
At the centre of discussions was a renewed push to expand financing frameworks for large-scale manufacturing, deepen support for domestic production, and unlock the next phase of growth across food, infrastructure, and export-oriented value chains.
Rabiu, reflecting on a relationship that spans nearly three decades, traced its evolution from the early days of Standard Trust Bank to its present form as a mature, trusted partnership with UBA.
“Enduring partnerships are not built on transactions, but on conviction,” Rabiu said. “What we have built with UBA and the Nigerian financial industry over the years is a shared understanding of where Nigeria is going and what it will take to get there. That alignment remains as strong today as it was at the beginning.”
Elumelu underscored the strategic importance of the relationship, positioning it within a broader vision of African-led growth.
“Institutions like BUA Group demonstrate what is possible when long-term capital meets disciplined execution,” Elumelu said. “Our role is to continue enabling that scale, supporting enterprises that are not only growing, but reshaping the Nigerian economy.”
The meeting signals a continued convergence between capital and industry at a time when Nigeria’s growth story is increasingly being driven by indigenous scale, operational depth, positive government action, and sustained investment in real sectors.
In a parallel demonstration of that scale, BUA Foods, a BUA company, has released its audited results for the financial year ended December 31, 2025, delivering revenue of N1.77 trillion, a 16 per cent increase from N1.53 trillion in 2024.
The performance reflects sustained demand across its core segments including sugar, flour, pasta, and rice, alongside continued execution of its expansion strategy.
Gross profit rose to N737.26 billion, up from N540.82 billion, while profit after tax surged by 95 per cent to N518.4 billion, compared to N265.99 billion in the prior year.
Earnings per share increased to N28.80, reinforcing the strength of the Company’s earnings profile.
In line with its commitment to shareholder value, the Board has proposed a dividend of N28 per share, representing a 115 per cent increase from N13 in 2024, with a total proposed payout of N504 billion, subject to shareholder approval.
Cost of sales stood at N1.037 trillion, while total assets grew by 27 per cent to N1.39 trillion, reflecting sustained investment across operations and the broader value chain.
Speaking on the results, the Chairman of BUA Foods, Abdul Samad Rabiu said, “Our 2025 performance reflects a business that is not only growing, but scaling with discipline. We are building capacity, deepening local production, and delivering consistent value to shareholders, all while positioning for the future.”
The Managing Director, Engr. Ayodele Abioye, added; “Our strategy remains to expand capacity, strengthen market presence, and optimise the full supply chain. The demand signals are strong, and we are well positioned to sustain this momentum.”
Taken together, the meeting between BUA Group and UBA, alongside BUA Foods’ record performance, points to a broader shift for Nigeria. Nigeria’s growth is increasingly being shaped by institutions that combine scale, capital discipline, and long-term vision and should be seen as not just an expansion but a consolidation of industrial leadership.
Governor Dauda Lawal Set To Unlock Zamfara’s Economic Potentials with Tinubu’s UK State Visit
By Oladapo Sofowora
As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu commences his landmark state visit to the United Kingdom the first by a Nigerian leader in 37 years, the inclusion of Zamfara State Governor Dauda Lawal in the presidential entourage is not a fluke; rather, it signals a strategic opportunity for the northwest state to transform its economic fortunes. Beyond the ceremonial pageantry, this high-level diplomatic engagement holds concrete prospects for Zamfara, particularly in agriculture and solid minerals development, sectors where the state possesses a comparative advantage but has struggled to attract meaningful investment. With Governor Lawal working assiduously to generate more IGR for the state and also position it as an economically advanced hub within the region with the construction of a Cargo Airport, this ushers in an era where the state is about to witness a great turnaround championed by Governor Lawal.
The timing of the bilateral engagement between the UK and Nigeria is significant, as the trade surplus between the two countries has reached a record £8.1 billion annually, and both nations are intensifying collaboration under the UK–Nigeria Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership (ETIP) framework.
According to economic pundits, key sectors targeted for cooperation include trade and investment, energy transition, solid minerals development, and security collaboration – all areas with direct implications for subnational governments like Zamfara. For Governor Lawal, being part of this engagement provides direct access to British investors and development partners that could reshape Zamfara’s economic landscape.
Governor Lawal arrives in London with ambitious development plans to corroborate the budget he presented in December 2024, a ₦861.3 billion budget proposal for the 2025 fiscal year submitted to the Zamfara State House of Assembly, a document he described as “a roadmap for transformation and a declaration that Zamfara will rise stronger.” The budget allocates ₦714.05 billion (83 per cent) to capital expenditure, with sectoral allocations including ₦86 billion for agriculture and significant provisions for infrastructure development. However, these ambitious plans require corresponding revenue streams and investment partnerships to allow them to materialise and reach their full potential.
The governor has been implementing domestic reforms to strengthen the state’s fiscal position. In March 2025, he abolished cash revenue collection across Zamfara, directing all Ministries, Departments, and Agencies to adopt digital systems for revenue collection. His administration set an Internally Generated Revenue target of ₦38 billion to ₦42 billion for 2025, building on 2024’s revenue performance of ₦358.9 billion. With all these impeccable performance indicators, domestic resource mobilisation alone cannot fund the scale of transformation he envisions for the state. The only way to scale up is through Foreign Direct Investment, particularly in agriculture and mining, which represents the missing piece of Zamfara’s development puzzle.
Zamfara State is predominantly agrarian, with the majority of its indigenous population engaged in farming. The state’s favourable climate and vast arable land position it as a potential breadbasket for northern Nigeria. However, the sector remains largely subsistence-based, with limited processing capacity and weak linkages to export markets.
The UK state visit offers opportunities to change this dynamic. British companies have demonstrated growing interest in Nigerian agriculture, as evidenced by Twinings Ovaltine’s £24 million manufacturing facility launch in Lagos its first in Africa creating over 100 direct jobs. Similar investments could be directed toward Zamfara’s agricultural sector, which would be a boost and also create more income for farmers in the production of specific crops with value-addition potential. These include:
Zamfara lies within Nigeria’s cotton belt, but the state lacks ginning and textile processing facilities. Partnerships with British textile companies could establish local cotton processing capacity, capturing value currently lost to exports of raw lint. Groundnut is also a major export commodity from northern Nigeria, but production has declined due to neglect of the sector. British confectionery and food processing companies represent potential off-takers for processed groundnuts.
With growing demand for animal feed and industrial starch, Maize and Sorghum crops offer processing opportunities. British agribusiness firms with expertise in agro-processing could establish milling and processing facilities in Zamfara.
With Sesame Seeds already an export crop, sesame production could benefit from improved processing and certification to meet international standards, particularly for the UK market.
For Zamfara, “opportunities for Nigerian businesses” translates directly to potential agricultural partnerships that could modernise farming practices, establish processing infrastructure, and create export linkages.
Perhaps the most significant potential gains for Zamfara lie in the solid minerals sector. The state is renowned for its gold deposits, which have historically attracted both licensed operators and illegal miners. However, the sector has been characterised by informality, environmental degradation, security challenges, and loss of revenue to the state.
Recent developments at the federal level underscore the growing importance of the minerals sector. The Federal Government recently announced the commencement of operations at a high-purity gold refinery in Lagos – a private-sector initiative led by Kian Smith in partnership with UAE-based Suvarna Royal Gold Trading. For Zamfara, this means advocating for gold processing facilities within the state, not merely exporting overseas, but creating a gold refinery which helps create more jobs within the mining value chain. Governor Lawal’s presence in London provides an opportunity to position Zamfara as a preferred location for one of these gold refineries, particularly with British investment partners.
In a bid to redefine the regulatory framework and investment readiness, Zamfara has been taking steps to create an enabling environment for mineral investment. In February 2025, the Federal Ministry of Solid Mineral Development, in collaboration with the Zamfara State Mineral Resources and Environmental Management Committee (MIREMCO), convened a stakeholders’ meeting with quarry operators, mineral processors, and gold dealers to promote safety and regulatory compliance. The Federal Mines Officer in Zamfara State emphasised that both the federal and Zamfara State governments are determined to promote responsible mining practices that enhance security, safeguard the environment, and ensure that solid mineral resources contribute meaningfully to economic development.
This regulatory clarity is essential for attracting foreign investors. British mining companies and equipment manufacturers require assurance that their investments will operate within a predictable legal framework. The UK–Nigeria ETIP discussions in London provide a platform for Governor Lawal to articulate Zamfara’s investment readiness and regulatory improvements directly to potential partners.
No discussion of Zamfara’s economic potential can ignore the security challenges that have plagued the state. Banditry, kidnapping, and community conflicts have disrupted farming, hindered mining operations, and deterred investment. Governor Lawal’s 2025 budget allocates ₦45 billion to public order and safety, recognising that security is foundational to economic development. The UK visit offers opportunities for security collaboration. Improved security cooperation between Nigeria and the UK could translate to enhanced capacity to protect farming communities and mining sites, creating conditions for agricultural and mineral investments to flourish.
As Governor Lawal engages with British investors and policymakers, he would do well to study how other resource-rich regions have successfully attracted investment while ensuring local benefits. For Zamfara under Governor Lawal, the lesson is clear: attracting investment in extraction must be accompanied by deliberate strategies to build local processing capacity. Simply exporting raw gold or agricultural commodities perpetuates the “resource trap” that has left many African regions impoverished despite abundant natural wealth.
If Governor Lawal’s participation in the UK state visit yields tangible results, Zamfara could experience, in agriculture, British investment in agro-processing facilities, creating jobs for local farmers and capturing value from crops like cotton, groundnuts, and sesame. Technical partnerships to improve farming practices and access to UK markets for certified organic or fair-trade products.
In solid minerals, partnerships with British mining companies for responsible gold extraction, potentially including a gold refinery within Zamfara. Technical assistance for artisanal miners to formalise operations and improve safety. Investment in environmental remediation of degraded mining areas.
For Zamfara State, Governor Lawal’s inclusion in the presidential entourage transforms a diplomatic milestone into a concrete opportunity for subnational economic development. The state’s abundant agricultural land, mineral wealth, and a population eager for economic opportunities hold immense potential. The journey from potential to prosperity is long, but it begins with a single step or in this case, a transatlantic flight carrying Zamfara’s hopes to the corridors of British power and finance.
*Oceangate Engineering Oil & Gas LTD to appeal Federal High ruling over forfeiture assets*
Oceangate Engineering Oil & Gas Limited has said it will appeal to the recent ruling of the Federal High Court ordering the forfeiture of certain assets.
Barr. Nnenna Onyeaso, the Company Secretary said in a statement on Thursday insisting that neither the company nor its leadership was found guilty of any wrongdoing.
Onyeaso said that the firm has described the court’s decision as a civil asset forfeiture order based on suspicion rather than proof, stressing that the judgment did not establish any criminal liability against the organisation.
According to her, the company maintain that it has already directed its legal team to file an appeal, expressing confidence in the judicial process and the outcome of a thorough review of the case.
“To be clear, this ruling is a civil asset forfeiture order with no finding of wrongdoing against Oceangate or its leadership.
“The court’s decision rested on a legal standard of suspicion, not proof, and it is one we intend to pursue fully through the appeals process,” she said in a statement.
The firm secretary also said that Oceangate has reiterated its belief in the rule of law, noting that the appellate system exists to address such outcomes.
She added that the company remained confident that the facts of the case will ultimately affirm its integrity and business practices.
Onyeaso said that the firm also emphasised that its operations remained unaffected, stating that it continues to provide employment for many Nigerians while contributing to the country’s energy sector and broader economy.
“We have always believed in the ability of the judicial process, and that belief has not wavered,” she added.
She noted that Oceangate further expressed appreciation to its employees, partners, and clients for their continued support amid the development, assuring stakeholders of its commitment to transparency and accountability.
The Secretary said that the company reaffirmed its confidence in Nigeria as a viable destination for investment, describing the country as a land of equity, growth, and opportunity.
“We remain committed to the continued growth of our business and the communities we serve as we are optimistic that justice will prevail at the end of the legal process.
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