Business
Tinubu’s Economic Agenda in Crisis: North-South Divide Strikes Again
Tinubu’s Economic Agenda in Crisis: North-South Divide Strikes Again
By George Omagbemi Sylvester
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, elected in 2023 on the wings of political calculation and elite manipulation, has now found himself caught in the snare of Nigeria’s enduring historical curse: the north-south divide. His ambitious economic reform agenda, intended to liberalize the economy, remove structural inefficiencies, and reduce government expenditure—has hit a legislative wall. But this isn’t just about policy. This is about power, patronage, and the ancient scars of a fractured federation.
The rejection of critical aspects of Tinubu’s economic proposals by lawmakers is a stinging rebuke, not only to his administration but to the very idea that Nigeria can be reformed from the top down without confronting its structural imbalances. In many ways, Tinubu’s presidency is now facing the same nightmare that has haunted every Nigerian leader since independence: how do you govern a country that was never truly united?
The Crumbling Reform Agenda
At the center of the storm is Tinubu’s proposal to centralize and streamline federal subsidies and remove what he termed “wasteful duplication of agencies.” This was meant to continue the subsidy removal narrative started in June 2023, and reduce fiscal leakage. However, the backlash, particularly from legislators representing the northern states, was swift and coordinated.
The northern bloc, comprising lawmakers from Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Borno, objected on the grounds that Tinubu’s proposals disproportionately affect their regions, where federal allocation remains a critical lifeline in the absence of strong internally generated revenue. But critics argue this is a strategic form of sabotage, aimed at retaining an unsustainable status quo that prioritizes political patronage over national progress.
As Prof. Wale Adebanwi of Oxford University has argued, “Nigeria’s northern elite have historically benefited from the spoils of a rentier state, with oil wealth redistributed without the burden of productive contribution. Any move to reverse this equation is seen as existential.”
Tinubu, a southerner from Lagos, with strong Christian support from the Southwest and Southeast, is now facing the very brick wall that has impeded reforms since the First Republic. His own political survival now depends on how much compromise he’s willing to make—or whether he can break the mold entirely.
A Century-Old Fracture
The rejection of Tinubu’s reforms by northern lawmakers is not new. It is deeply rooted in a century-old tension embedded in the structure of the Nigerian state. The 1914 amalgamation, engineered by British colonialists, fused two vastly different regions, the industrializing, Western-educated Christian south and the feudal, Islamic north, into one artificial political entity.
From independence in 1960, this contradiction has remained unresolved. “Nigeria was created not to function as a cohesive nation, but as an economic convenience for its colonial masters,” noted historian Max Siollun. “What we’re seeing is the consequence of a nation built on convenience rather than consensus.”
The economic priorities of the north and south remain deeply divergent. While the south boasts ports, oil revenue, industries, and a growing tech sector, the north has remained largely agrarian, dependent on federal allocations and political appointments. Any attempt to tamper with this redistribution—whether via subsidy removal or cuts in federal spending, provokes immediate resistance.
Reform vs. Redistribution
Tinubu’s administration promised reforms: subsidy removal, tax reform, and investment in critical infrastructure. But all reforms require sacrifices, and those sacrifices must be nationally distributed to succeed. What Tinubu is discovering, painfully, is that reforms without inclusive buy-in are dead on arrival.
Economist Dr. Obiageli Ezekwesili captured the challenge succinctly: “Nigeria’s political economy is structured around the sharing of oil rents, not the creation of wealth. Any attempt to disrupt this structure will provoke fierce opposition from those who depend on the current dysfunction for survival.”
Indeed, the loudest resistance to Tinubu’s reforms has come not from the opposition PDP or Labour Party, but from within his own APC, particularly from northern senators and representatives who feel alienated by the president’s southern-centric economic vision.
The Ghost of Buhari
Many Nigerians are now drawing comparisons between Tinubu’s presidency and that of his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, a northern Muslim who governed with overwhelming support from the north. Buhari’s policies favored heavy spending, a bloated civil service, and minimal economic restructuring, a model that created illusions of stability while deepening the economic rot.
“Buhari governed like a tribal chief, rewarding loyalty over competence, and expanding a culture of dependency,” said Prof. Kingsley Moghalu, former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank. “Tinubu’s efforts to break away from that legacy will require courage, strategy, and above all, an appeal to national interest.”
But appealing to national interest in Nigeria is easier said than done. The political class thrives on division. The north fears marginalization, the south resents over-centralization, and the middle belt remains trapped in identity crises. Tinubu, in failing to build a coalition around his reforms, is now paying the price of elite disunity.
The Danger of Ethno-Political Paralysis
The rejection of Tinubu’s agenda is not just a political problem, it is an economic time bomb. Nigeria is drowning in debt, with over 90% of its revenue now going to debt servicing. Inflation is running rampant, the naira has crashed, and unemployment remains alarmingly high. The country cannot afford to maintain the current level of government spending without reform.
But if every economic policy must first pass the tribal test, then reform is doomed. “A nation that filters every economic decision through the lens of ethnicity is a nation marching toward collapse,” warned Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka. “If Nigeria cannot rise above its primordial divisions, it cannot survive the 21st century.”
What Next for Tinubu?
Tinubu’s next steps are critical. Will he revise his reforms to appease northern lawmakers and keep the political peace? Or will he double down, use executive power, and mobilize the Nigerian people behind a populist push for structural change?
There is a middle path, dialogue, renegotiation of the federal structure, and regional empowerment. Many have called for fiscal federalism, where regions generate and control their own revenues, sending only a fraction to the center. This model, already practiced in countries like Canada and the United States, could reduce the perennial tension around federal allocation.
Political economist Ayo Teriba suggests, “Nigeria must move away from revenue-sharing to revenue-generation. That shift requires not just policy but a new national consensus, and that is where Tinubu must lead.”
In conclusion: Lead or Collapse
President Tinubu is at a crossroads. He can continue playing the dangerous game of balancing regional interests with national imperatives, or he can rise above the tribal chessboard and lead with boldness. The north-south divide is not just a historical relic, it is a living cancer that must be addressed through structural reform, not rhetorical appeasement.
The economic reform agenda is not a southern agenda. It is a Nigerian necessity. If lawmakers continue to sabotage reform because it threatens their regional comfort zones, then the entire nation will suffer. As the saying goes, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.”
In the end, Tinubu must decide: will he be a president of compromise, or a reformer of consequence?
Can We Have More Bankers Like Victoria Mulero? An epitome of ‘omoluabi’
In February of this year, I needed to open a new bank account for salary purposes, as required by the management of the new company I had just joined.
I considered First Bank, Access Bank, and Sterling Bank. After some thought, I chose Sterling Bank—not because I found them superior—but because I believed they had fewer customers, which I hoped would save me from long queues and unnecessary delays.
I visited the Sterling Bank branch at Akowonjo to open the account. Unfortunately, the staff member who attended to me didn’t inspire confidence. She appeared distracted—smiling at her phone, clearly engrossed in a private chat—far from the level of professionalism one would expect in a bank setting. I had a feeling this would lead to problems down the line.
When my first salary was paid into the account, my suspicion was confirmed. Sterling Bank restricted access to my funds—I couldn’t transfer money or make withdrawals at the counter. I visited their Fatai Atere branch at Ladipo, Mushin to complain, where I was informed that the account opened for me was a “Kaikai” account—a type I had never heard of. Apparently, this account type is meant for individuals who lack the required documents during account creation. But I had submitted all necessary documents, so why was such an account opened for me?
At the Fatai Atere branch, I was attended to by a remarkable banker named Victoria Mulero. She requested my NIN, which I didn’t have on me at the time. Rather than send me back home, she asked if I had a digital copy. I did, and she graciously gave me her email address so I could forward it to her. With that, she resolved the issue promptly and professionally.
However, the following month, in March, the same restriction happened again. I returned to the Fatai Atere branch, and once again, Victoria Mulero handled my complaint with efficiency and kindness, resolving it without delay.
I hoped the matter was finally settled, but when my April salary arrived, the restriction was imposed yet again. This time, I was beyond frustrated and ready to replace Sterling Bank as my salary account. Still, I visited the Fatai Atere branch one last time. Once more, Victoria Mulero resolved the issue with grace and determination.
This write-up is a tribute to Victoria Mulero of Sterling Bank, Fatai Atere branch. She is a rare gem—respectful, diligent, and genuinely customer-focused. She went above and beyond, following up with the Akowonjo branch through calls and emails until the matter was fully resolved. She handled every situation with patience and empathy, treating the job as if the bank belonged to her family.
To be honest, I’ve had unpleasant experiences with many bankers, especially female staff. Too often, they carry personal frustrations into the banking hall and take it out on customers. But Victoria is different. She exemplifies what true customer service should be.
We may not all be the same, but treating people with respect and kindness is a skill that can be learned—and Victoria clearly has. Let’s celebrate her for being a model professional and a beacon of hope in an industry that too often lacks empathy.
Without any fear of contradiction, I say boldly that Victoria Mulero is a good ambassador of Sterling Bank and her parents too deserve encomium for raising a well trained daughter and impacting an attitude of ‘ omoluabi’ in her. We need more of Victoria Mulero in our banking industry.
Seun Jacob Ogunbiyi
Known as Olùkọ́, the therapeutic writer and Lagos based journalist
Business
Air Peace Airlines’ failure to adhere to scheduled departure times results in prolonged delays …causing undue hardship for Nigerians on board
Air Peace Airlines’ failure to adhere to scheduled departure times results in prolonged delays
…causing undue hardship for Nigerians on board
~Oluwaseun Fabiyi
Traveling is undoubtedly the most effective form of education, enabling individuals to observe human quirks from diverse perspectives
On Saturday, 3rd May 2025, an Air Peace Airlines flight from Akure Airport was delayed, causing undue inconvenience to a Nigerian traveller and a prominent Nigerian man of God, an unfortunate incident that befell the nation’s citizens
Does Nigerian law consider it a criminal offense for travelers to book flights with Air Peace, a leading Nigerian airline, instead of other airlines that fail to depart on schedule, such as remaining at 10am instead of departing at 10am? Certainly, some Nigerian citizens may opt to travel with airlines like Arik, Aero, Dana, rather than Air Peace.
It is evident that many Nigerians actually believe Air Peace airline came to rescue Nigerians from the subpar fly-and-die experience of other airlines, such as Dana, which is why many have fallen in love with Air Peace Airlines’ domestic operations
Air Peace Airlines’ decision to reschedule a 12:00 flight from Akure in Ondo State to 3:00 on Saturday, 3rd May 2025, has been met with disappointment from some affected Nigerian passengers, who deem this change unreasonable and unjustified.
Nigeria is hindered by self-imposed challenges that impede our collective advancement. I remain optimistic that future leadership will emerge, focusing on nuanced details that cumulatively enhance the lives of citizens, including access to housing, affordable food, petrol, quality healthcare, and a decent standard of living. The fact that we produce rice, only to have its price inflated by some, thereby rendering it unaffordable, is a pressing concern
It is baffling to me why some people or airlines deliberately provide poor services, causing undue hardship for their passengers, without taking the courtesy to apologize
How can passengers ensure they arrive at Akure Airport by 10 a.m. to catch a 12 p.m. flight from Akure to Lagos and complete check-in as usual
Only for them to fall victim to an extremely harrowing experience. The first indication was the outrage of a passenger at the Nigeria Air Peace counters. He yelled at the ticketing officials that his time had been wasted by three hours and demanded to be refunded his money, as his business was equally affected.
The scene was remarkably congested, and indeed there was an exceedingly large number of passengers traveling to Lagos on this particular Air Peace flight.Which none of them can comprehend what could cause a delay from 12 O’clock to 3:15 pm, without considering individuals with an assignment or occasion in Lagos, is so crazy and devastating.
*How Passengers suffer through endless delays waiting for Air Peace aircraft.*
Accordingly, they embarked on an extended wait after Air Peace notified them that the flight had been postponed by an hour. Ultimately, the delay proved to be three hours, with the flight arriving at 3:30 pm, followed by the commencement of boarding procedures
On a final note the Nigerian aviation industry, including airlines, can certainly improve their treatment of fellow Nigerians
Onboard passengers display concern and raise eyebrows.
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