Due to increased postal voting some states will not consider counting of the presidential ballots complete until Friday. Donald Trump’s alleged false claim to have won the US presidential election while millions of votes remain to be counted has focused the spotlight once more on one of the big uncertainties of the 2020 race: when will we know the US election result? It could take days, weeks or even months, depending on what happens.
What usually happens?
US presidential elections are not won by the national popular vote. The winner in each state collects its electoral college votes – and needs a total of 270 to take the White House
In most elections the result is clear – although not officially confirmed – by the end of the night. Major American media outlets “call” each state for one of the candidates. While not based on the final vote count, that projection is almost invariably accurate.
This means an accurate tally of electoral college votes can be made and a winner declared. In 2016, that happened at 2.30am in Washington when Trump reached the required 270.
Why is that not happening this time?
Mainly because of the Covid-19 pandemic, large numbers of voters – about 68% of the total, compared with 34% in 2016 – cast their ballots early, including by post.
Counting postal votes is slower because voter and witness signatures and addresses must be checked, and ballots smoothed out before being fed into counting machines. Some states start that verification process long before election day, meaning the count itself can get under way as soon as polls close. Others, however, do not allow that.
Which states are we talking about?
Five states have yet to be called: Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Alaska. Several news organizations, including the Associated Press and Fox News’ decision desk, have called Arizona for Joe Biden. The Trump campaign is arguing, however, that call was made too early.
Pennsylvania officials have already said their count may not be finished by the end of Wednesday.Alaska will end up in the Republican column with near certainty.
The Democratic challenger is narrowly ahead in Nevada, with only Democratic-leaning late postal ballots left to tally. Officials have said no more results will be released in Nevada until midday on Thursday.
In North Carolina, while Trump is the clear favourite, the state accepts postal ballots until 12 November – although that is expected to make little difference.
What else is complicating matters?
Roughly half of all states will accept postal votes that arrive after election day as long as they carry a postmark of no later than 3 November, so postal delays may mean some ballots are not processed until days later: Pennsylvania has said results will not be considered complete until the deadline of Friday.
There has also reportedly been an increase in the number of provisional ballots cast by people who asked for a postal vote but then decided to go to the polling station in person instead. These need careful checking to make sure no one has voted twice.
In the 2000 race, the Democratic candidate, Al Gore, famously lost Florida by just more than 500 votes out of a total of nearly 6m, costing him the election. After a disputed recount and a supreme court ruling, George W Bush was declared the winner.
More than 300 lawsuits have already been filed over alleged breaches of electoral law in the 2020 election, according to reports, and more can be expected over accusations of postal voting irregularities and changes to voting rules due to the pandemic.
Recounts have to be a strong possibility in one or more of the key swing states, and Trump said in his first post election address late on Tuesday that he would be going to the supreme court in an attempt to stop ballot counting. While it is far from clear how feasible such a move would be, anything like it could delay a final vote for weeks.