By Prince Adeyemi Shonibare

THE CITY, THE CROWN, AND THE CODE OF POWER

Lagos is not merely governed—it is engineered and meticulously organised. A megacity of over 25 million people, the economic heartbeat of Nigeria, and arguably the most strategic sub- national political ecosystem in Africa.

As 2027 approaches, a familiar but profound question echoes across corridors of influence—from Alausa to Marina, from the five Ibile divisions to the 57 LGs and LCDAs, down to wards and grassroots structures:

Who wears the crown?

Yet Lagos does not answer loudly. It whispers.

“Elections may be public, but power in Lagos is negotiated in private and through caucuses—long before ballots are cast.”

HISTORY: FROM PRIMROSE TO JUSTICE FORUM AND MANDATE — THE MAKING OF A POLITICAL MACHINE

Before the consolidation of today’s political order, Lagos politics was shaped by structured caucuses that defined leadership selection.

At the elite level stood the Primrose Group, a discreet but powerful screening body that assessed aspirants in the early 90s and late 1990s. It played a critical role in screening Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the Senate against political heavyweight Odu Onikosi, in what many described as a David-versus-Goliath contest. Tinubu emerged victorious.

Primrose also screened the 1998 governorship aspirants:

Bola Ahmed Tinubu

Wahab Dosunmu

Funsho Williams

The Primrose circle included:

Prince Tajudeen Olusi

Bushura Alebiosu

Mofutau Olatunji Hamzat

Alhaji Kola Oseni

Dapo Sarumi

Oyinlomo Danmole (the youngest member)

Notably, Mofutau Olatunji Hamzat, father of Kadri Obafemi Hamzat, chaired the screening process that produced Tinubu as the 1998 AD governorship candidate.

Alongside Primrose emerged two other critical blocs:

Mandate Group — the grassroots mobilisation engine

Justice Forum — the stabilising and conflict-resolution bloc

Together, they formed a strategic architecture:

Primrose — elite validation

Mandate Group — mass mobilisation

Justice Forum — internal balance and cohesion

From this convergence, Tinubu emerged—not by accident, but by design.

“He was not elected into power—he was processed into leadership.”

FROM BLOCS TO INSTITUTION: THE GAC EVOLUTION

Over time, these blocs evolved into a more formal structure—the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC).

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not create the GAC; he strengthened, harmonised, and institutionalised these legacy blocs into a central decision-making body.

“GAC is the institutional memory of Lagos politics.”

THE DOCTRINE OF SUCCESSION IN LAGOS

Lagos has developed a predictable pattern of leadership transition:

Babatunde Fashola — technocratic consolidation

Akinwunmi Ambode — performance with political rupture

Babajide Sanwo-Olu — consensus restoration

Each transition reinforces a central doctrine:

“The primary is the battlefield. The structure is the judge. Consensus is the verdict.”

And more fundamentally:

“The candidate will always come from within.”

THE INVISIBLE CABINET: GAC AS POWER SOVEREIGN

At the centre of Lagos political architecture sits the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC)—a body that does far more than advice.

Chairman:

Prince Tajudeen Olusi

Key Members Include:

Babatunde Fashola

Femi Gbajabiamila

Mudashiru Obasa

Adeyemi Ikuforiji

Senator Anthony Adefuye

Tokunbo Abiru,

Musiliu Obanikoro

Oluremi Tinubu

Sarah Sosan

Idiat Adebule

Femi Pedro

James Faleke

Adeseye Ogunlewe

Demola Seriki

Adejoke Adefulire

Kadri Obafemi Hamzat.

Other Influential Figures Within the Structure:

Henry Ajomale

Ganiyu Solomon

Rabiu Oluwa

Muraina Taiwo

Abdul-Wahab Ogundele

Sunmi Odesanya

Kaoli Olusanya.

In addition, almost all former governors, deputy governors, senators, and selected members of the House of Representatives and Primrose, mandate Group and justice forum are embedded within or aligned to the GAC structure.

“At critical moments, the GAC does not merely advise—it decides.”

CRACKS, CONFLICTS AND SYSTEM DISCIPLINE

The political history of Lagos has consistently demonstrated one principle: discipline within the system is non-negotiable.

The experience of Akinwunmi Ambode remains instructive.

“Performance alone is not enough—alignment with the structure is critical.”

In Lagos:

“No individual is bigger than the system.”

THE ASPIRANTS: POWER, PEDIGREE AND POSITIONING

The 2027 governorship race is no longer speculative—it is crystallising into a layered contest of insiders, technocrats, institutional loyalists, and strategic actors. Beneath the surface, resumes are being weighed as much as relationships; pedigree is being measured alongside perception.

Key Aspirants Include:

Kadri Obafemi Hamzat — Deputy Governor; perhaps the most deeply embedded institutional actor in the race. A technocrat with academic depth and governance continuity credentials. Notably headhunted from the United States banking sector by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, his return to public service reflects longstanding trust. His father, Mofutau Olatunji Hamzat, chaired the screening process that produced Tinubu in 1998—placing him at the intersection of legacy and continuity.

Femi Gbajabiamila — Chief of Staff to the President; former Speaker of the House of Representatives. A consummate legislator with vast national reach, elite networks, and deep understanding of federal power dynamics. Bridges Lagos structure with Abuja influence seamlessly.

Tokunbo Abiru — Senator; former Managing Director in the banking sector. Represents fiscal discipline, financial system credibility, and investor reassurance. A technocrat-politician hybrid with strong appeal to the private sector and global investors.

Tokunbo Wahab — Commissioner for Environment. A bold regulator and reformist voice, known for enforcing urban order and environmental compliance. Projects decisiveness, discipline, and administrative courage.

Mudashiru Obasa — Long-serving Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly. A master of grassroots politics with deep control of legislative structures and ward-level mobilisation. Represents structure from the ground up.

Olajide Adediran (Jandor) — Media entrepreneur and political mobiliser. Built his base through grassroots engagement and alternative political messaging. Represents outsider energy attempting to penetrate a deeply structured system.

Akinwunmi Ambode — Former governor; technocrat with a proven governance record. His tenure still resonates in infrastructure and public sector efficiency. Carries a redemption narrative, but must reconcile history with structure.

Mojisola Lasbat Meranda — Legislative figure and symbol of gender inclusion. Represents institutional evolution and the expanding role of women in Lagos power architecture.

Kayode Egbetokun (speculative) — Security chief; represents discipline, order, and enforcement capability. A potential “stability candidate” in uncertain times.

Samuel Ajose (speculative) — Former Head of Service; experienced bureaucratic strategist with deep knowledge of Lagos governance machinery. Represents administrative continuity and institutional memory.

Tayo Ayinde (speculative) — Long-serving Chief of Staff in Lagos; a quiet but powerful insider with proximity to executive decision-making and operational governance.

“Some are building alliances. Others are building acceptance. A few are building inevitability.”

THE REAL TEST: CRITERIA FOR THE APC TICKET

Beyond ambition, the Lagos APC operates a strict, unwritten checklist for candidate selection:

Proven Loyalty to the Party

A party defector stands little chance.

Product of the System

The candidate must come from within.

Alignment with the Lagos Master Plan

Continuity over disruption.

Investor Confidence

Lagos cannot risk economic instability.

Political Discipline and Temperament

Arrogance and lawlessness are disqualifiers.

Ibile Balance and Broad Acceptability

Zonal sensitivity remains critical.

Ability to Work with the Structure

Collaboration over confrontation.

Presidential Trust Factor

National confidence is key—but not absolute.

Electoral Value and Grassroots Reach

Structure must meet the street.

Importantly, this will not be a solo decision.

A former, widely respected governor and former minister is expected to play a critical role as the eyes and ears of the President in determining the most suitable candidate.

A reliable source revealed that the President held a private meeting with this former governor and minister in Lagos during the Easter break—signaling early alignment consultations ahead of 2027.

UNDERCURRENTS: SILENT MOVES AND STRATEGIC HEDGING

Quiet political movements are already unfolding beneath the surface.

There are strong rumours that:

One top aspirant is in talks with the ADC to fly their fly.

Another is exploring alignment with the Accord Party.

“Those who sense resistance within the structure begin to shop for alternatives.”

Beyond party alignments, another layer of activity is emerging.

It is widely whispered in political circles that:

Some bank accounts of PR operatives, journalists, and lobbyists have begun to quietly interface with key GAC members.

Certain aspirants are already patronising columnists to shape favourable narratives.

Billions of naira have allegedly been earmarked for lobbying, influence, and perception management.

A reliable source suggests that the real contest has already begun—not on the ballot, but in boardrooms, private residences, and media corridors and newsrooms.

Yet history cautions:

“Breaking away from the Lagos APC structure rarely guarantees victory.”

THE CALCULUS OF POWER

Five decisive variables will ultimately determine the outcome:

GAC consensus

Presidential trust (shared, not unilateral)

Party loyalty

Economic confidence

Public acceptability

Notably, the private sector remains a critical stakeholder. Lagos, as Africa’s commercial nerve centre, cannot afford political uncertainty that threatens capital flow. Investors—local and international—are watching closely.

The international community is equally attentive. Lagos is no ordinary state—it is a golden economic enclave, a city of compounding value and strategic global interest.

The Presidency too cannot be indifferent—notwithstanding that Lagos is its political base. Stability in Lagos is stability in the broader national equation.

THE CROWN AND THE SYSTEM

Lagos does not gamble with leadership,it engineers and groomed it.

No emergency leader in Lagos.

From Primrose…

To Mandate…

To Justice Forum…

To GAC…

The philosophy remains unchanged:

“Power in Lagos is not taken. It is processed.”

As 2027 approaches, one truth stands firm:

The crown will not go to the loudest.

It will not go to the most desperate.

It will not go to ambition alone.

It will go to the most acceptable aspirant.

And in Lagos:

“Acceptability is not declared,it is decided by all the variables and joint gatekeepers before the general public cast their votes.”

Politics, in the end, remains a temple of many tendencies—

the good, the bad, the pretenders, and the presumed righteous.

All contending for one crown.

More than ₦3 billion was targeted, but about ₦677 million reached the culprits, with recovery and prosecutions underway, reflecting how banks are responding to more sophisticated fraud risks.

Nigeria’s expanding digital banking sector is facing increasingly sophisticated fraud attempts, as financial institutions adapt to faster transactions and broader online services.

A recent case involving First City Monument Bank (FCMB), linked to fraudulent activity detected in December 2025, has drawn attention to how banks are responding to such incidents, with a focus on limiting exposure, recovering funds and working with law enforcement.

According to findings referenced in proceedings before the Lagos State Special Offences Court, the incident involved unauthorised transactions tied to a digital product. Early reports erroneously suggested more than ₦3 billion was lost. Subsequent clarification shows that over ₦3 billion was targeted, ₦2.4 billion was blocked and recovered, while ₦677 million got into the possession of the culprits. This outcome reflects the bank’s cyber security and monitoring capabilities, as well as improved collaboration among regulated financial institutions and with law enforcement agencies. Several suspects and beneficiaries have been apprehended, while recovery and prosecution efforts are ongoing, led by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

Proceedings at the Lagos State Special Offences Court have resulted in convictions, including that of a repeat offender, with restitution orders issued. Related matters are also being handled at the Federal High Court in Lagos, where additional suspects are being tried in connection with the scheme. This process is aimed at ensuring that bad actors are identified and permanently blacklisted from the financial system.

Authorities say recovery efforts are continuing as additional funds are traced.

Analysts note that the pace of legal action reflects closer coordination between financial institutions and enforcement agencies in addressing cyber-related financial crime.

The case comes as banks contend with more complex fraud methods, including social engineering and automated exploitation of system processes.

As digital products and platforms expand, so too does the risk associated with cyber-crime and related fraud.

“The scale of digital banking means risks are evolving alongside the systems,” said a Lagos-based financial analyst. “Institutions are now judged by how they manage these events.”

Observers say the sector is moving toward a stronger focus on response and recovery, rather than prevention alone.

This includes improving monitoring capabilities, strengthening transaction controls and enhancing collaboration with regulators and law enforcement. The FCMB case, with limited exposure relative to the amount targeted and ongoing recovery, reflects that shift.

For customers, the primary concern is the safety of their funds. In this case, there has been no indication of losses affecting customer deposits. Maintaining that level of protection remains central to sustaining trust in the financial system.

Nigeria’s financial sector continues to grow, supported by digital innovation and expanding access to banking services.

However, analysts say fraud attempts are likely to persist as systems become more complex and interconnected.

They say institutions will increasingly be judged not only on their ability to prevent incidents, but on how effectively they respond and recover when they occur.

….congratulates new State Party Chairman, Warman Ogoriba

APC Deputy Governorship Candidate in the 2023 general elections in Bayelsa State, Great Joshua MacIver has declared his total commitment to the re-election of President Bola Tinubu come 2027, declaring that the Tinubu re-election project is non-negotiable.

Great Joshua MacIver, in his statement titled ” BAYELSA APC CONGRESSES: GOING FORWARD, A CALL TO LOOK INWARDS” and made available to newsmen in Yenagoa, warned APC leaders in the state to look Inward and take note of certain factors which may hinder or cut short our victory.

According to Great Joshua MacIver, such noticeable pitfalls include the imbalance in the united front being put up by the State Governor,Senator Douye Diri among various political blocs in the state.

In the statement issued at the weekend. Great Joshua MacIver stated that “First, before His Excellency, Senator Douye Diri, joined the APC in the state, there were clearly two political blocs that made up the party, with the approximate population ratios of the blocs standing at 95% to 5%.”

“After the entrance of His Excellency, Senator Douye Diri, ONLY THE SMALLER BLOC IS BEING CARRIED ALONG IN THE AFFAIRS OF THE PARTY, leaving the greater percentage to their fate, and this situation has the potential to build anger and dissatisfaction in our dear party.”

” The consequence of this has been the high level defection we have witnessed in the party recently and we believe more may likely follow, if we do not put our house in order.”

” If we do not pull together as a party, we may witness a situation where we will lose key stakeholders, especially after the State and National Assembly Primaries as well the Gubernatorial Primaries.”

“Finally, while it is very clear that we are the party to beat in the 2027 elections and that our loyalty to Mr. President IS NON-NEGOTIABLE, we must make haste to say that we cannot afford to create situations or loopholes in our unity which will be exploited by other political interests in the state. We cannot afford to under-rate anyone.”

“Our core interest remains the re-election of Mr. President, a project to which we have committed our all. We also pledge our total loyalty to the party as we have no alternative to the APC. However, our concern is that we must, as a party, look inwards and ensure that we do not create loopholes that can impede our common goal.”

Great Joshua MacIver, however congratulated the newly elected State Executives of the APC in Bayelsà State led by Hon. Warman Ogoriba, saying their emergence is welcomed at this critical time in our national history.