Politics
Tinubu’s 2027 Defeat Is Inevitable; Even INEC Cannot Rescue a Failed Regime
Tinubu’s 2027 Defeat Is Inevitable; Even INEC Cannot Rescue a Failed Regime.
George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by SaharaWeeklyNG.com
Politics aside, the truth must be told without sugarcoating: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s chances of securing a second term in 2027 are not just slim; they are virtually non-existent. Even with the support of a compromised Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the intimidation tactics that have become hallmarks of his administration, the Nigerian people have grown weary of a regime marked by hardship, economic mismanagement, insecurity and an outright disconnect from the suffering of the average citizen. Nigeria under Tinubu has become a theatre of chaos and no amount of political gymnastics or propaganda can whitewash the truth: NIGERIANS ARE FED UP.
The Popularity Myth Has COLLAPSED. When Tinubu ascended the presidency in May 2023, he did so on the back of a controversial election riddled with irregularities. From late results transmission to the suppression of voters in opposition strongholds, the 2023 polls marked one of the most contentious electoral cycles since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999. Despite his victory, Tinubu has struggled to win the hearts of Nigerians. A 2024 Africa Polling Institute (API) survey revealed that over 76% of Nigerians disapprove of Tinubu’s performance, citing worsening economic hardship, insecurity and corruption.
Political analyst Jide Ojo put it bluntly in a Channels TV interview: “The legitimacy deficit is real. Tinubu has failed to govern in a way that wins public trust. His popularity is only on paper and within his shrinking political circle.”
IF POPULARITY IS A CURRENCY IN ELECTORAL POLITICS, THEN TINUBU IS BANKRUPT.
Economic Woes. The Breaking Point for Nigerians. The most glaring indictment of the Tinubu administration is its catastrophic handling of the Nigerian economy. From the abrupt REMOVAL of FUEL SUBSIDY without a comprehensive safety net, to the FREE-FLOATING of the NAIRA that triggered HYPERINFLATION, Tinubu’s policies have inflicted unbearable hardship on citizens.
As of mid-2025, inflation stands at 33.5%, food inflation has soared to 40.2%, and the naira continues its downward spiral, trading at over ₦1,700/$1. The removal of fuel subsidy, described by Tinubu as a “NECESSARY SACRIFICE,” has only benefitted oil marketers and rent-seeking politicians, while the masses endure endless queues, transportation nightmares and skyrocketing food prices.
In the words of Nigerian economist Bismarck Rewane: “There is no coherent economic philosophy guiding this administration. Policies are reactive not proactive. Tinubu’s approach has compounded the problem he claimed to solve.”
The average Nigerian is tired of empty promises. Tinubu’s slogan of “Renewed Hope” has turned into “Renewed Hunger.” When hunger walks into a room, no amount of ethnic sentiment or party loyalty can silence it’s cry.
Insecurity. The Phantom Commander-in-Chief. Tinubu promised to tackle insecurity head-on. Two years in, the reverse is the case. Banditry has escalated in the North-West, terrorism still thrives in the North-East, IPOB activities persist in the South-East and kidnappings have become a nationwide epidemic. From Borno to Benue, Zamfara to Enugu, the blood of innocent Nigerians continues to stain the soil daily.
In March 2025 alone, over 1,204 abductions were recorded and 221 people were killed by non-state actors across the country (SBM Intelligence). The government’s response? Recycled military operations and press statements devoid of action.
Security expert, Kabir Adamu, told Arise News: “We are seeing a government that is not only reactive but also shockingly silent on key security threats. Tinubu appears absent, aloof or unconcerned.”
The Nigerian people can no longer tolerate a president who cannot guarantee their basic right to life.
Disconnection from the People. What is perhaps most galling is the aloofness and arrogance of the Tinubu administration. From excessive foreign trips (over 21 in two years) to the extravagant ₦10 billion solar panel installation at Aso Rock, Nigerians are left wondering: Is this president living in the same country as the rest of us?
The hardship on the streets contrasts sharply with the luxury in the corridors of power. Civil servants are owed salaries, university students are frustrated by strikes and hospitals are crumbling; yet Tinubu’s government continues to behave like a monarchy, prioritising vanity projects over people-centered governance.
Ayo Sogunro, a legal scholar and activist, captured it perfectly: “A government that does not feel the pulse of its people is not a democracy, it’s a glorified dictatorship.”
The End of Godfatherism. Tinubu’s political brand has long relied on his image as a kingmaker, a political strategist who pulls strings from behind the scenes. But in 2027, godfatherism will not be enough. The people are angry and that anger will translate into VOTES, PROTESTS or BOTH.
Peter Obi’s 2023 performance, despite massive sabotage, showed that a new political awakening has begun among NIGERIANS especially the YOUTH. With social media becoming a digital battleground and civic consciousness on the rise, Tinubu’s old playbook of political manipulation is quickly becoming obsolete.
The 2023 elections may have been rigged, but the 2027 election will be a referendum on suffering, not structure.
INEC: A Compromised Umpire? INEC’s credibility is at an all-time low. The failure of the 2023 elections (especially the inability to electronically transmit results as promised) has tainted its image. Nigerians no longer believe INEC is impartial and any attempt to repeat the same in 2027 could lead to unprecedented chaos.
INEC Chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, has already been under intense criticism with civil society groups calling for his resignation. Even foreign observers from the European Union and the U.S. Department of State have criticized the 2023 elections as deeply flawed.
It is highly unlikely that INEC will be able to manipulate public sentiment the same way again. Not when the nation is boiling with frustration.
2027: A Political Earthquake Looms. If Tinubu dares to contest again in 2027, the backlash will be seismic. The opposition is already re-aligning, and even within the APC, there are cracks forming. Disgruntled governors, sidelined northern politicians and betrayed political allies are beginning to distance themselves from the failed regime.
In the North, where Tinubu initially gained support through the help of certain elite blocs, disillusionment has set in. The Middle Belt has turned against him. The South-East was never with him. Even the South-West (his supposed stronghold) is groaning under the weight of discontent.
Professor Usman Yusuf, former NHIS Executive Secretary, summed it up on national TV: “Even if you gift Tinubu a second term, he won’t be able to govern. The nation is rejecting him. The APC has become a symbol of betrayal.”
Endnote: A Government on Borrowed Time. No matter how many billions Tinubu throws at propaganda, no matter how many traditional rulers he bribes, no matter how many press statements are released by sycophants in the corridors of power, one truth remains unshakable: NIGERIANS ARE DONE WITH THIS ADMINISTRATION.
Tinubu has failed, not because of sabotage or international conspiracies; but because of his own incompetence, arrogance and refusal to connect with the realities of the people he was elected to serve.
2027 will not be about party LOYALTY. It will not be about TRIBALISM. It will be about SURVIVAL. For millions of Nigerians, survival means rejecting the very regime that has plunged them into misery.
INEC cannot rescue a failed presidency. The people are watching. The streets are restless. The countdown to rejection has already begun.
By George Omagbemi Sylvester
Published by SaharaWeeklyNG.com
Politics
Amupitan: Why the ADC is Chasing Shadows
Amupitan: Why the ADC is Chasing Shadows
Sanya Oni
It is no surprise that the African Democratic Congress is insistent on the immediate resignation of the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Prof. Joash Amupitan. First, was for the ‘high crime’ of seeking to play safe over a judgment of the court which demanded that ADC’s feuding parties and INEC under the leadership of Amupitan in particular take no further step to present the court with a fait accompli over a matter before it. Not sufficient to play the judge and jury in its own cause, it also insists on treating the appearance of any position deemed contrary to its own as treasonable.
Now, they want the head of the electoral body served on the platter over an alleged pro-President Bola Tinubu tweet in 2023. And so determined to press its case, the ADC, in a statement by its rambunctious National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, would on Saturday, lob yet another charge at the INEC boss for what it claimed were attempts (by who?) to erase the digital trail of the offending tweet – which it also says amounted to a dangerous cover-up that undermined the credibility and neutrality of Nigeria’s electoral system.
Talk of an unproven tweet suddenly becoming an issue over which the chief electoral umpire’s integrity is not only being called into question but constituting the grounds for demanding for his head!
Of course, save for the party’s army of salesmen with their all-familiar talking points on prime time television, few Nigerians would be surprised by such antics which border on desperation. Before now, the party had, much earlier, raised the alarm over what it described as a calculated plot to impose a one-party state ahead of the 2027 general elections, accusing the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) of using INEC to weaken opposition parties.
Let’s take a look at the tragedy of a party which seeks to pride itself as a leading opposition but has done practically nothing to earn its stripes. It started with a horde of angry, internally displaced politicians overrunning the organs of a once-marginal party, the ADC in a spectacular act of a hostile take-over. Unfortunately, if the image presented by the party from the outside at the time was one of cohesion, it certainly did not help that the invaders neither possessed the patience nor the discipline to undertake the required due diligence! Now that it turns out that what they thought they had bought with pride was in every sense, a damaged good, Nigerians as a whole are being blackmailed, accused of being an accessory to their grand act of dereliction.
Yet, as the presidential candidate of the party in the 2023, general election, Dumebi Kachikwu, would care to remind, the takeover bid, being a flawed process is akin to erecting a castle on shifting sand. The tenure of the so-called chairman of the party, Ralph Nwosu, with whom the invaders negotiated, had long been rendered invalid by the effluxion of time. Not only that, the constitution of the party also made clear that those seeking the leadership of the party must have spent no less than two years in the party! These are supposed to be the issues before the courts!
Across the states, it is the same story of a party riven with crises from top to bottom. Yet, convinced that their good – as illegitimate as could be – was already theirs for keeps, the caretakers-turned undertakers plodded on, choosing to ignore the feelings of a section of the party hierarchs that needed to be placated. With just enough crude blackmail, impunity, cash and more cash in their armoury to waltz through, the conquistadors actually assumed they were unstoppable.
Of course, they pretended that the court processes are merely a side-show. The Federal High Court ruling which required the invaders to show cause why the prayers of the aggrieved ADC members should not be granted was thought of as a joke; the same way the judgment of the appellate court which directed the parties to return to status quo ante bellum was deemed by the ADC invaders a non-binding opinion hence their plans to proceed with a convention fraught with potential legal jeopardy.
To the invaders – Mark, Rauf Aregbesola et al, their interpretation, as against that of INEC with its tilt on neutrality – was sacrosanct.
While these drag on, trust the lawyers with their boring whining about how Section 83 of the Electoral Act, 2026 ousts the jurisdiction of the courts. Yes, it provides that “No court in Nigeria shall entertain jurisdiction over any suit or matter pertaining the internal affairs of a political party” as if that effectively translates to shutting the doors of mediation to aggrieved party men even on issues bordering on their rights or non-observance of party constitutions. In like manner, it is like the express provisions of Section 6(6)(b) which also provides that: “The judicial powers vested in accordance with the foregoing provisions of this section – shall extend to all matters between persons, or between government or authority and to any persons in Nigeria, and to all actions and proceedings relating thereto, for the determination of any question as to the civil rights and obligations of that person” has suddenly become superfluous in the current electoral cycle!
To return to the Amupitan matter: Should anyone be fooled by the orchestrated blackmail by those whose record private and public can’t hold a candle to Amupitan’s? Certainly not with what I had earlier described as a programmed de-legitimisation of the 2027 elections by overrated political actors being already an open book. Sure enough, the matter, in the coming days, would not be whether or not the gentleman from Kogi can take the heat, but how far those in the business of concocting lies would go to undermine the process simply because the odds are not going their way. While they are at it, they have still not told Nigerians how the lone individual – out of 37 odd Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs) and 12 National Commissioners, with two representing each of the six geopolitical zones, has suddenly become the ultimate decider of how things will go in 2027.
Reminds of the bad workman perennially blaming his tools.
First published in The Nation on April 14, 2026
Politics
Ogun’s Future at Risk, Says MAO, Faults ‘Anointed’ Consensus Candidate Yayi
*Ogun’s Future at Risk, Says MAO, Faults ‘Anointed’ Consensus Candidate Yayi*
“In a land starved of vision, even the barely capable are crowned as kings.”
With this striking illustration, Chairman of the Egba Agenda Forum, High Chief Mustapha Abdulakeem Owolabi (MAO), has condemned the emergence of Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, as the consensus governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ogun State.
In a strongly worded statement issued on Tuesday, Owolabi described the development as a “quiet and almost shameful orchestration,” insisting that the process reflects calculated imposition rather than the genuine will of the people.
According to him, while Yayi may have found political footing in Ogun about six years ago through Yewa, his elevation as a statewide consensus candidate without what he termed “a true test of popular mandate” raises fundamental concerns about the state of democracy in Ogun.
“This is not democracy; it is orchestration,” Owolabi declared.
The Egba Agenda Forum chairman further alleged that the move represents a stepping stone in a broader political design, suggesting that Ogun State risks becoming an extension of entrenched political influence beyond its borders.
He argued that the ambition behind the arrangement is “structured, patient and deliberate,” warning that such consolidation threatens the independence of the state’s political space.
Owolabi blamed past administrations for laying the groundwork for what he described as the recycling of failure. He accused previous leaders of governing “without building,” entrenching poverty, weakening institutions and replacing sustainable development with dependency.
“The next generation has learned the system too well,” he said. “They understand that you don’t need to fix the people; you only need to manage them.”
He criticized what is often presented as empowerment programmes, describing them as tools of control rather than genuine development initiatives. According to him, with education weakened, healthcare struggling, infrastructure decaying and debt mounting, citizens are left vulnerable to “small relief packages and symbolic gestures” that replace accountability with gratitude.
“This is not progress. It is recycling failure,” the statement read.
The Forum also expressed concern over what it called the systematic weakening of opposition parties, alleging that fractured and destabilized opposition voices leave citizens with “no real alternative only the illusion of choice.”
“True democracy thrives on vibrant, credible opposition. It demands competition, accountability and the constant testing of ideas,” Owolabi stated. “What we are witnessing is a slow drift toward political monopoly disguised as consensus.”
He further criticized former aspirants and political actors who, according to him, have abandoned principles in a bid to secure appointments and remain in the good graces of the “anointed.”
“Principles abandoned, convictions traded, ambition preserved at all costs. Shameful is an understatement,” he said.
Owolabi warned that the situation sends the wrong message to emerging political leaders, who he fears are being trained to perfect the same political playbook rather than inspired to chart a new course.
“A nation cannot rise on manipulation. A people cannot thrive on crumbs,” he added.
Concluding his statement, the Egba Agenda Forum chairman called on Nigerians to reflect deeply on the direction of the country’s democracy.
“‘Nigeria, we hail thee’ but surely, this cannot be the nation our forefathers envisioned, nor the system they hoped to build. If this cycle is not broken, then the future is already compromised. May Nigeria find the courage to demand more.”
Politics
APC Picks Adeola Yayi as Consensus Candidate, Declares ‘New Ogun State Is Born’
APC Picks Adeola Yayi as Consensus Candidate, Declares ‘New Ogun State Is Born’
ABEOKUTA, OGUN STATE — The Ogun State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has adopted Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, as its consensus governorship candidate ahead of the 2027 election.
The decision was announced on Monday, April 13, 2026, during a high-level party congress held in Abeokuta, drawing party leaders and stakeholders from across the state.
Governor Dapo Abiodun, who presided over the gathering, said the consensus arrangement was a strategic move to promote equity and inclusiveness, particularly by addressing what he described as a decades-long marginalisation of Ogun West Senatorial District in the state’s leadership structure.
He noted that the decision reflects a deliberate effort by the party to rotate power fairly among the state’s senatorial zones.
“Nothing will give me more joy than to fulfill the dreams of my predecessors — especially ensuring that Ogun West produces the next governor,” Abiodun said.
“I look forward to a time when I will sit proudly with my successor and my fellow former governors at the swearing-in of a new APC governor.”
Amid applause from party faithful, the governor formally unveiled Adeola as the party’s flagbearer, describing him as the most suitable candidate to lead the state into its next phase of development.
The announcement triggered jubilant reactions, with chants of “Yayi” echoing across the venue.
In his acceptance speech, Adeola expressed gratitude to party leaders and members, describing his emergence as a product of unity, sacrifice, and collective vision.
“I believe in oneness and the unity of our dear state and Ogun West by extension,” he said, pledging to justify the confidence reposed in him.
Adeola highlighted Ogun State’s growing economic relevance, noting its status as one of Nigeria’s most industrialised states. He promised to consolidate existing gains while advancing policies that would further drive development and prosperity.
“I will not let you down. I promise to keep the flag flying and maintain the unity, peace, and progress achieved in Ogun State,” he added.
Using a nautical metaphor, the senator assured party members of steady leadership, saying, “The ship I’m about to take over, I will make sure that it does not derail.”
He also emphasized inclusiveness, pledging to unite all factions within the party and across the state, regardless of political differences.
“By the grace of God, I will do my utmost best to keep every member of our great party together and ensure that we remain one indivisible family,” he said.
Declaring a new chapter for the state, Adeola proclaimed, “A new Ogun State is born,” promising a renewed focus on unity, development, and shared prosperity.
The endorsement, which took place during the APC Strategic Caucus Meeting, is widely seen as a defining moment in Ogun State politics, setting the stage for the 2027 governorship race and signaling strong internal cohesion within the ruling party.
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