society
A Tentative Recovery — OR WINDOW DRESSING? Nigeria’s GDP Grows 3.98% in Q3 2025: What the Number Hides and What Must Be Done
A Tentative Recovery — OR WINDOW DRESSING?
Nigeria’s GDP Grows 3.98% in Q3 2025: What the Number Hides and What Must Be Done.
By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by saharaweeklyng.com
“Separating Statistical Progress from Everyday Reality in Africa’s Most Complex Economy.”
Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98% year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). At first glance the figure looks like PROGRESS and it is PROGRESS of a kind. But beneath the tidy percentage lie a tangle of uneven sectoral performance, fragile price stability, fiscal strain and a persistent failure to translate macroeconomic numbers into better daily lives for ordinary Nigerians. This piece pulls apart the headline, explains what drove the expansion, flags the risks and offers an unvarnished judgment about what policymakers must do next.
What drove the 3.98% growth? The NBS report shows that the expansion in Q3 was BROAD-BASED but led by the non-oil economy (notably services and agriculture) even as the oil sector staged a modest recovery. Services accounted for the largest share of output and recorded one of the stronger growth rates, while agriculture returned to positive territory after weaker stretches in 2024. In aggregate, the non-oil sector contributed roughly 96% of GDP, underscoring how far Nigeria’s output composition has shifted away from hydrocarbons. Those structural shifts matter because they change the policy levers that actually move the economy.
The oil sector did record positive growth (helped by higher crude production) but its share of aggregate GDP remains small, a signal that oil is less of a direct growth engine than it used to be. In other words: while higher production matters for foreign exchange and government revenues, the day-to-day purchasing power and job creation that lift millions of households are overwhelmingly determined by non-oil activity.
Why the number is both WELCOME and WORRYING.
A WELCOME sign: sustained quarterly growth after a weak patch signals momentum. The World Bank has itself noted “POSITIVE ECONOMIC MOMENTUM” in 2025 and cautioned that reforms are beginning to yield results, while urging that gains be translated into tangible welfare improvements for the poor. As Mathew Verghis, World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, put it: “The Nigerian government has taken bold steps to stabilize the economy, and these efforts are beginning to yield results.” But the World Bank’s central caveat is crucial: macro stabilization is necessary but not sufficient; the poor still face high food inflation and widespread vulnerability.
The WORRYING side is immediate and stark. Inflation remains painfully high (double-digit and food inflation especially elevated) and borrowing costs are still punitive despite modest easing from earlier peaks to conditions that throttle business expansion and household welfare. Financial market and monetary policy improvements will not help families who spend the bulk of their income on food if the price of the basic food basket keeps rising. In short: GROWTH WITHOUT DISINFLATION AND REDISTRIBUTION IS A HOLLOW VICTORY. Sahara and other analysts reported inflation pressures and pointed to a still-high policy rate as part of the context for Q3 figures.
Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso has repeatedly insisted that credible, predictable policy will attract investment: “Stability is at the core of advancing Nigeria’s policy framework through inflation targeting. You do not need to beg anyone to invest.” That prescription is true, but only if the rest of the policy apparatus (fiscal discipline, supply-side fixes for food and energy, social protection) follows through. Stability without structural reform will not deliver jobs or lower the cost of living.
The fiscal and external backdrop. Growth does not occur in isolation. The Federal Government’s fiscal plans for 2026 (including a draft budget and medium-term fiscal framework) point to continued pressure on public finances, a SIZEABLE DEFICIT and RISING DEBT SERVICE OBLIGATIONS. The cabinet’s fiscal framework projects large budgetary needs, indicting the reality that public investment will be constrained unless revenue mobilization improves. In short: the state needs fiscal headroom to invest in the power, transport and logistics that convert growth into livable livelihoods.
On the external side, stronger oil production and higher non-oil exports have improved foreign exchange reserves and the external position compared with the crisis years. Those improvements matter: reserves and a more functional FX market reduce panic, allow imports of critical inputs and lower premium pressures. Yet, the gains remain delicate and reversible if confidence weakens or global commodity prices swing.
Where the gains must land: three urgent priorities
Tame inflation, especially food inflation. The World Bank and Nigerian policymakers agree: the single biggest tax on the poor is food price inflation. Targeted supply-side fixes (agricultural inputs, storage, logistics and trade measures) combined with a credible monetary framework, are indispensable. Without this, headline GDP growth will keep feeling distant from household reality.
Restore fiscal space and spend smarter. The 2026 fiscal framework highlights a difficult trade-off: service large debt obligations or invest in growth-enhancing infrastructure. Nigeria must tighten revenue collection, eliminate leakages, and prioritize public spending that directly boosts productivity (power, roads, ports, irrigation). Otherwise, growth will be cyclical and shallow.
Translate macro stability into real investment and jobs. As CBN Governor Cardoso has argued, predictable, transparent policy attracts investors. But to convert investment into jobs, governments must fix regulatory uncertainty, unblock transport bottlenecks, and support SMEs with affordable credit and market access. A solid monetary stance alone will not produce mass employment.
A candid verdict. A 3.98% growth rate is not a tragedy, it is evidence the economy is moving in the right direction after years of dislocations. But it is also a warning: growth that does not reduce costs for ordinary citizens, create stable jobs, and expand social protection is a fragile and politically toxic victory. The leadership in Abuja must stop treating statistics as an end in themselves and embrace a people-centered economic strategy that combines stabilization with direct interventions for food security, job creation and fiscal transparency.
If policymakers act with urgency (tightening the link between macro stability and social outcomes, spending smartly, and fixing supply bottlenecks) Nigeria can convert this modest momentum into sustained, inclusive growth. If they do not, the headline percentages will become yet another number that comforts elites while ordinary Nigerians continue to pay the price.
My Final note. Numbers matter and the NBS’s Q3 figure is worth acknowledging. But the measure of success is whether mothers can afford food, whether small businesses can borrow without choking on interest, and whether young people can find dignified work. Until those metrics improve, a 3.98% GDP print remains a TENTATIVE step and NOT a TRIUMPH.
society
Discipleship: “Walk with the Wise and You Will Become Wise” — Dr Chris Okafor
Discipleship: “Walk with the Wise and You Will Become Wise”
— Dr Chris Okafor
…Evil communication corrupts good character
…The Holy Spirit is the seal of redemption
True Christian living, beyond winning souls, requires nurturing and sustaining new converts in the faith. This was the central message delivered by the Generational Prophet and Senior Pastor of Grace Nation Global, Dr Chris Okafor, during a teaching on “Understanding the Act of Discipleship.”
According to him, soul winning without proper establishment and follow-up defeats its purpose. “The goal is not just conversion but fruitfulness and continuity in Christ,” he emphasized, noting that believers must also understand the conditions that make prayers effective.
The Necessity of Discipleship
Dr Okafor outlined why discipleship is essential in the Christian journey:
New converts require guidance to withstand temptations that could pull them back into their former ways.
They must gradually disconnect from relationships and habits that previously weakened their faith.
Support systems should be in place to help them navigate personal and spiritual challenges.
Consistent follow-up, rooted in love and care, helps prevent discouragement and negative perceptions.
Proper integration into the body of Christ strengthens their sense of belonging and commitment.
Understanding Discipleship
He described discipleship as a deliberate process of helping believers grow in Christ and align with godly principles rather than worldly influences. It involves:
Guiding converts until Christ is fully formed in them.
Transmitting biblical values that strengthen their faith and daily conduct.
Practical Approach to Discipleship
The cleric highlighted key methods for effective discipleship:
Fervent prayer for the spiritual stability of new believers.
Demonstrating genuine love and consistent care.
Regular follow-up visits and visible engagement.
Encouraging early infilling of the Holy Spirit.
Teaching habits that sustain spiritual growth.
Habits That Strengthen Faith
To remain grounded, believers were encouraged to cultivate:
Daily study of the Word of God
Consistent prayer and fellowship with God
Active participation in church gatherings
Bold expression of their faith
A conscious rejection of unrighteousness
Deep-rooted commitment to the house of God
A Foundation for Growth
In conclusion, Dr Chris Okafor stressed that discipleship thrives when believers are rooted in sound spiritual guidance. “When you walk with the wise, you become wise,” he said, adding that strong spiritual formation protects individuals from negative influences and preserves godly character.
The Grace Nation Global Sunday Communion Service, observed by members worldwide, featured testimonies, healing sessions, deliverance, and a special child dedication, rounding off the service on a note of faith and celebration.
By Sunday Adeyemi
[email protected]
society
APC’s Misrepresentation of Makinde’s Remarks: A Disturbing Display of Intellectual Dishonesty* -Olufemi Aduwo
*APC’s Misrepresentation of Makinde’s Remarks: A Disturbing Display of Intellectual Dishonesty* -Olufemi Aduwo
The attention of right-thinking Nigerians has been drawn to the misguided and politically contrived statement issued by the All Progressives Congress (APC), in which it accused Governor Seyi Makinde of incitement over his reference to “Operation Wetie”. Let it be stated without equivocation, the APC’s reaction is not only a gross distortion of context but also a troubling exhibition of either wilful ignorance or a fundamental inability to comprehend even the most elementary use of historical analogy. One is left to wonder whether those who crafted that statement possess even a kindergarten grasp of the English language, let alone the intellectual depth required for serious political discourse.
Governor Makinde’s remarks were clearly cautionary and not incendiary. His reference to “Operation Wetie” was an invocation of history, nothing more and nothing less. It was a sober reminder of the catastrophic consequences that follow when democratic processes are subverted, dissent is stifled and political arrogance is allowed to fester unchecked.To interpret such a warning as a call to violence is either intellectually dishonest or deliberately mischievous.
By attempting to criminalise a legitimate historical reference, the APC exposes a deeper anxiety, an unease with truth and a discomfort with reminders of what unchecked political excess can produce. The tragedy of the Western Region crisis is not a subject to be buried under partisan convenience, it is a lesson to be studied, understood and heeded.
It is both ironic and alarming that a party which claims to defend democracy would seek to undermine historical consciousness. Such conduct betrays a troubling tendency towards authoritarian thinking, where even words of caution are twisted into offences and dissenting voices are vilified rather than engaged.
The statement by Felix Morka, in particular, collapses under the weight of its own exaggeration. To leap from a historical reference to claims of “anarchy” and “murderous rage” is not only illogical but borders on the absurd. It is political theatre of the lowest quality. Furthermore, the attempt to cloak this mischaracterisation in the language of “national security” is both reckless and disingenuous. National security is far too important to be reduced to a tool for partisan intimidation.
The APC would do well to engage in introspection rather than projection. This pattern of deliberate misrepresentation and inflammatory overreach poses a greater risk to Nigeria’s democratic stability.
Nigeria deserves a political culture rooted in honesty, maturity and intellectual rigour not one diminished by propaganda, distortion and opportunism. In the final analysis, the issue is simple, those who cannot understand history are often the first to misinterpret it and unfortunately, the most likely to repeat its errors.
-Olufemi Aduwo is a
Permanent Representative of CCDI to the ECOSOC/United Nations.
NB: Centre for Convention on Democratic Integrity, is a non-profit organisation with Consultative Status of United Nations
society
Prophet Oladele Ogundipe Genesis Hosts Jehoshaphat Night 2026 : A Powerful Night of Praise, Power, And Prophetic Encounter in Lagos
Prophet Oladele Ogundipe Genesis Hosts Jehoshaphat Night 2026 : A Powerful Night of Praise, Power, And Prophetic Encounter in Lagos
Genesis Global Isheri is set to host an extraordinary spiritual gathering tagged PPP, Praise, Power & Prophetic Night, themed Jehoshaphat Night, on May 1st, 2026, from 8PM till dawn. This highly anticipated event will take place at Genesis Bus Stop, LASU–Igando Road, Isheri Idimu, Lagos, bringing together worshippers, believers, and seekers from across the city for a night of intense spiritual upliftment. With a vibrant atmosphere already expected, the event promises a unique blend of deep worship, prophetic ministrations, and life-transforming encounters.
The night will be led by Prophet Israel Oladele Ogundipe, the host and founder of Genesis Global, known for his dynamic prophetic ministry and impactful teachings. Attendees can also look forward to powerful ministrations from guest ministers Minister Dare Oxygen and Mista Olamilekan, who are set to usher in an atmosphere of heartfelt praise and spiritual revival. The theme “Jehoshaphat Night” draws inspiration from the biblical account of King Jehoshaphat, where praise became a weapon for victory setting the tone for a night centered on breakthrough, faith, and divine intervention.
Beyond just a gathering, Jehoshaphat Night is positioned as a transformative experience where attendees can expect spiritual renewal, prophetic direction, and a deeper connection with God through music and the Word. With a carefully curated lineup and a strong spiritual focus, this all night event aims to ignite faith and inspire testimonies. Whether you’re seeking clarity, breakthrough, or simply a powerful worship experience, this is a night not to be missed in Lagos. Make it an event.
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