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Dangote Refinery Ends Nigeria’s Era of Fuel Import Dependence, Boosts GDP, FX Earnings — EIU

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NLC Commends Dangote Refinery, Urges FG to Sell Adequate Crude in Naira to Reduce Fuel Prices

Dangote Refinery Ends Nigeria’s Era of Fuel Import Dependence, Boosts GDP, FX Earnings — EIU

The operational ramp up of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals is fundamentally reshaping Nigeria’s downstream oil sector, significantly reducing the country’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products and strengthening its external position, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

In its latest assessment on Nigeria’s fuel market and regulatory environment, the EIU said the refinery has already transformed a sector that was previously characterised by heavy reliance on imported fuel despite Nigeria being Africa’s largest crude oil producer. The report noted that the refinery met nearly 80 per cent of domestic petrol demand in April and produced enough volumes to satisfy local consumption requirements as operations approached full capacity.

The EIU described Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector before the refinery as “long dysfunctional”, noting that the country had remained almost entirely dependent on costly imported fuel while producing nearly 1.5 million barrels of crude oil daily.

According to the report, the emergence of the refinery has reduced import dependence, improved domestic fuel availability and strengthened Nigeria’s balance of payments position through lower import demand and rising exports of refined petroleum products.

“The gradual ramp up of the 650,000 barrel/day Dangote refinery since May 2023 has transformed Nigeria’s long dysfunctional downstream sector,” the report stated. “The country’s main refineries, all state owned, had been inoperative for years and Nigeria was almost entirely reliant on costly imported fuel.”

The research and analysis division of The Economist Group, London added that the refinery’s attainment of full operational capacity and its planned expansion would further support Nigeria’s economic growth and foreign exchange earnings over the medium term.

“Meanwhile, the attainment of full capacity at, and an increase in exports from, the Dangote refinery will support real GDP growth and foreign exchange earnings in 2026 and 2027 and beyond, as a planned doubling of the plant’s output comes on stream around the end of the decade,” it added.

Industry analysts said the refinery is increasingly positioning Nigeria as an emerging refining and export hub, altering energy trade flows across Africa and reducing the vulnerability associated with fuel import dependence.

The EIU noted that the refinery’s expansion has coincided with major reforms in Nigeria’s downstream sector, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the introduction of market driven pricing mechanisms.

The report, however, said the transition from a state dominated fuel import structure to large scale domestic refining has triggered resistance from interests linked to the old import regime.

The latest tensions emerged following the decision by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to relax restrictions on petrol imports despite the refinery’s growing capacity to meet domestic demand.

Dangote Industries subsequently initiated legal action, arguing that continued import approvals undermine domestic refining investments and conflict with the objectives of the Petroleum Industry Act, which seeks to encourage local refining capacity and reduce import dependence.

Analysts noted that the availability of large-scale domestic refining capacity has improved Nigeria’s energy security and reduced exposure to external supply shocks and foreign exchange volatility.

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise also cautioned against unrestrained importation of petroleum products, warning that such a policy could weaken Nigeria’s industrialisation drive and discourage investments in domestic refining.

Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, Muda Yusuf, said continued dependence on imported fuel had historically contributed to pressure on foreign reserves, exchange rate instability and fiscal leakages.

The refinery’s growing impact is also being reflected in Nigeria’s broader macroeconomic indicators. Earlier this month, S&P Global Ratings cited increased domestic refining capacity and rising hydrocarbon exports among the major factors supporting Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating upgrade – the first in 14 years.

Beyond Nigeria, analysts said the refinery is increasingly being viewed as a strategic industrial asset for Africa, where many countries remain heavily dependent on imported fuel despite rising demand for transportation, manufacturing, and power generation.

 

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BREAKING: Court Dismisses $19.6 Million Claim Against NNPCL — Rules Contract Scope Cannot Be Changed Orally

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BREAKING: Court Dismisses $19.6 Million Claim Against NNPCL — Rules Contract Scope Cannot Be Changed Orally

 

In a landmark ruling on Friday, May 22, 2026, the Federal Capital Territory High Court in Abuja threw out a $19.6 million lawsuit filed by Alternate Dimensions Ventures Ltd against the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), affirming a key legal principle: a written contract cannot be expanded through oral agreements or conduct.

Alternate Dimensions had sought $19,600,000 in professional fees, claiming the scope of its Direct Sale, Direct Purchase (DSDP e-pro) contract with NNPCL was orally expanded. Represented by counsel Patrick Peter, the firm argued it was entitled to the revised sum for services rendered under the alleged new terms.

But NNPCL, through its lawyer Ituah Imhanze of KENNA LP, pushed back sharply, arguing that parties are bound exclusively by the clear terms of their written agreement. Imhanze contended that without any written amendment, the claim was legally unsound, and the court agreed.

Delivering judgment, Justice Hamza Mu’azu upheld NNPCL’s defense, stating that the contract was unambiguous and that no evidence was adduced during the trial, which supported the alleged scope expansion. The court further found that NNPCL fully complied with all contractual terms and committed no breach.

Dismissing the suit as meritless, Justice Mu’azu reinforced the doctrine of sanctity of contract: any amendment to a written agreement must be express, unequivocal, and documented, not implied or verbal.

The ruling spares NNPCL from the S19.6 million claim and also a floodgate of similar potential liabilities.

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Advanced Neonatal and Pediatric ICU births in Ikeja

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Advanced Neonatal and Pediatric ICU births in Ikeja

 

 

Haven Pediatric Practice has officially launched a state-of-the-art Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) in Ikeja, Lagos State today.

This facility is a direct response to the urgent need for specialized care, bridging the gap between despair and survival for families in Lagos and beyond.

 

In the world over, the dream for every expectant mother is simple: to carry to term and hold a healthy baby. But when that dream is interrupted by preterm birth, the emotional toll is devastating. In Nigeria, currently ranked as one of the most challenging environments for premature infant survival, the stakes have never been higher.

But by synergizing cutting-edge technology with the highest level of professional expertise, Haven Pediatric Practice has assembled a dedicated team of Neonatologists and pediatric specialists. Recognizing that respiration is the greatest hurdle for “born too early” champions, the clinic has invested in top of the range ventilation technology capable of supporting infants weighing as little as 0.4kg.

The Chief Medical Director of Haven Pediatric Practice Dr. Adebajo Odedina told our correspondent at the event that,
“We aren’t just launching a ward; we are deploying a lifeline. By combining world-class ventilators with specialized, experienced medical hands, we are significantly increasing the chances of survival for even our smallest warriors.”

This expansion reaffirms Haven Pediatrics’ commitment to providing comprehensive, advanced care from the very first breath, ensuring that being born early no longer means losing the fight for life.

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Nigeria’s Booming Banks And A Collapsing Economy

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Nigeria’s Booming Banks And A Collapsing Economy

BY BLAISE UDUNZE

 

 

Nigeria’s banking industry appears to be booming, largely driven by the policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), under Governor Olayemi Cardoso, while the real economy continues to suffocate.

 

 

 

At a time when millions of Nigerians are sinking deeper into poverty, when inflation continues to erode household incomes, when businesses are collapsing under unbearable operating costs, and when migration has become a survival strategy for many young professionals, Nigerian banks are announcing staggering profits, stronger capital positions and unprecedented liquidity growth.

 

 

 

According to the bank’s financial statements, the financial system appears healthy. In reality, the economy where citizens work, trade and survive is gasping for breath.

 

 

 

This growing disconnect between financial sector prosperity and economic suffering now represents one of the gravest threats to Nigeria’s long-term economic stability and its ambition of building a $1 trillion economy.

 

 

 

The numbers are indeed impressive. Nigerian banks’ shareholders’ funds reportedly surged to about N27 trillion following the recapitalisation exercise. The top five banks now command balance sheets estimated at over N164 trillion. Tier-1 banks collectively generated trillions in profits within the first quarter of 2026 alone, while the sector-wide recapitalisation exercise raised over N4.56 trillion.

 

 

 

Ordinarily, such figures should inspire confidence about the future of the economy. Stronger banks are expected to translate into stronger businesses, more jobs, industrial expansion and wider economic opportunities. But Nigeria’s experience is proving otherwise.

 

 

 

Instead of serving as engines of productive growth, banks are increasingly becoming custodians of liquidity trapped within the financial system itself. That is the real danger.

 

 

 

Even as banking liquidity expands sharply, lending to the productive economy remains weak and constrained. Reports indicate that banks parked a record N24.13 trillion with the CBN, while simultaneously increasing investments in government securities and treasury bills because these avenues are safer, more profitable and less risky than lending to businesses operating within Nigeria’s harsh economic climate. This reality exposes a dangerous contradiction.

 

 

 

A developing economy desperately in need of industrialisation, manufacturing growth, infrastructure expansion and job creation cannot afford a banking system that prefers financial safety over productive economic risk.

 

A sustainable economy cannot thrive where the real sector is starved of funds. Yet this is exactly where Nigeria now stands.

 

 

 

Despite the massive liquidity in the banking system, growth in lending to the private sector continues to lag behind the pace of liquidity expansion. The implication is clear. Financial sector strength is no longer translating into real economic development. This is not how healthy economies function.

 

 

 

Ordinarily, banks in developing economies are expected to operate as catalysts for economic transformation. Across successful economies, commercial banks finance manufacturing, agriculture, innovation, infrastructure and entrepreneurship because those sectors generate jobs, productivity and national wealth.

 

 

 

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), especially, are globally recognised as the backbone of grassroots economic development. Nigeria is no exception.

 

 

 

SMEs account for over 70 percent of registered businesses, contribute nearly half of Nigeria’s GDP and generate between 84 and 90 percent of employment opportunities. Yet despite their overwhelming importance, SMEs reportedly receive barely between 0.5 percent and one percent of total commercial bank lending. That is not merely a policy failure. It is an economic tragedy.

 

 

 

Every denied SME loan is a denied employment opportunity. Every failed business represents another frustrated entrepreneur. Every frustrated entrepreneur becomes another Nigerian contemplating migration.

 

 

 

This is how economic dysfunction transforms into human displacement. The so-called “Japa” phenomenon did not emerge in isolation. It is deeply connected to economic hopelessness. When productive citizens lose faith in their country’s economic future, migration stops being a lifestyle choice and becomes a survival mechanism.

 

 

 

Unbeknownst to the policymakers is that Nigeria cannot realistically build a $1 trillion economy while productive sectors remain financially suffocated.

 

 

 

A closer glance at the trend of events helps to reveal that the danger becomes even more severe when viewed against the backdrop of the recent outcome of the 305th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, where the CBN retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.5 percent in its bid to sustain disinflation and macroeconomic stability.

 

 

 

It is understandable and certain that inflation control is important, but the fact is that at 15.69 percent, inflation remains painfully high and continues to weaken purchasing power. Food prices remain elevated. Transportation costs remain unbearable. Consumer demand is weakening. The middle class is shrinking rapidly.

 

 

 

But maintaining elevated interest rates also comes with painful consequences. Simple arithmetic tells us that higher interest rates mean higher lending costs. Higher lending costs mean higher production costs. Higher production costs worsen inflationary pressures and weaken business survival rates.

 

 

 

Invariably, this also tells us that for Nigerian manufacturers and corporates already battling a weak naira, volatile exchange rates, expensive diesel, energy insecurity and declining consumer demand, access to affordable credit is becoming almost impossible.

 

 

 

Many businesses are no longer borrowing to expand production or employ workers. They are borrowing merely to survive. This is economic suffocation.

 

 

 

Meanwhile, banks continue to profit massively from high-yield government securities and treasury investments. Reports indicate that major Nigerian banks generated over N6.68 trillion from investment securities and treasury bills instead of financing productive enterprises capable of stimulating growth and employment.

 

 

 

Government’s appetite for borrowing itself shows no sign of slowing down. Public borrowing reportedly climbed above N39 trillion. Historically, excessive government borrowing crowds out private sector investment because banks naturally prefer lending to government rather than exposing themselves to risks associated with businesses operating in unstable economic conditions.

 

 

 

The result is predictable. The real sector weakens while speculative and non-productive financial activities flourish. This explains why Nigeria increasingly resembles a financial system disconnected from the realities of ordinary citizens.

 

 

 

While banks celebrate rising profits, poverty and hunger worsen visibly across the country. Unemployment continues to rise. Small businesses are dying quietly. Household purchasing power is collapsing under inflationary pressure.

 

Yet the financial system appears more liquid than ever. That contradiction should alarm policymakers. The recapitalisation exercise itself now raises difficult questions.

 

What exactly is the purpose of stronger banks if stronger banks do not strengthen national productivity?

 

 

 

If recapitalisation merely empowers banks to deepen investments in government debt instruments while manufacturers, farmers, exporters and SMEs remain starved of affordable credit, then the exercise risks becoming financially impressive but economically hollow.

 

Indeed, the current monetary environment appears to reward financial conservatism over productive risk-taking.

 

 

 

The stringent Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR), elevated interest rates and broader macroeconomic uncertainty continue to discourage aggressive lending to the private sector. Banks understandably seek safety. But nations do not industrialise through excessive financial caution.

 

 

 

No economy develops when capital circulates primarily within treasury bills and government securities instead of flowing into factories, farms, logistics, housing, innovation and production.

 

This is the larger danger confronting Nigeria today. Economic crises rarely begin with recession statistics alone. Sometimes, they begin when financial institutions become detached from the suffering realities of the wider economy. They begin when growth exists only within banking balance sheets but disappears from households, factories and streets.

 

 

 

Without productive credit expansion, economic growth becomes artificial and exclusionary. Without affordable financing, businesses cannot scale. Without business expansion, jobs cannot emerge. Also, it must be noted that without jobs, insecurity, poverty and migration inevitably worsen. The implications for social stability are enormous.

 

 

 

One painful fact is that citizens already burdened by inflation, debt pressures and widespread distrust now face a system where economic opportunities continue shrinking despite apparent financial sector prosperity. One of the lurking dangers is that this deepens resentment, weakens confidence in institutions and threatens long-term economic cohesion.

 

 

 

The CBN’s inflation fight may be necessary, but monetary stability alone cannot substitute for productive economic expansion. Financial stability without inclusive growth eventually becomes unsustainable.

 

The real economy matters more than banking optics. Nigeria urgently needs policies that incentivise real sector lending, reduce structural risks facing manufacturers and SMEs, strengthen credit infrastructure, lower production bottlenecks and redirect liquidity toward productive economic activity.

 

 

 

As a matter of fact, it is high time for Nigeria to start rethinking the growing dependence on debt-driven fiscal management that continues to crowd out private investment. Development cannot occur when government borrowing consumes the financial oxygen needed by businesses.

 

 

 

Ultimately, banking profitability should not become an isolated island of prosperity surrounded by a collapsing productive economy.

 

 

 

A nation cannot celebrate trillion-naira banking profits while millions of citizens sink deeper into economic despair. No society sustains such a contradiction indefinitely.

 

 

 

If Nigeria truly hopes to build a resilient and inclusive economy, then the banking sector must once again become a vehicle for national development rather than merely a beneficiary of government debt and monetary tightening.

 

 

 

Otherwise, the country risks creating a contradictory economy where banks grow richer while citizens grow poorer and where financial prosperity exists only on paper while economic hardship defines everyday life.

 

Nigeria’s Booming Banks And A Collapsing Economy
BY BLAISE UDUNZE

 

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]

 

 

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