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Delay in crude supply to Dangote Refinery Poses Risk to Nigeria’s economy – EIU Report

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Delay in crude supply to Dangote Refinery Poses Risk to Nigeria’s economy – EIU Report

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sahara Weekly Reports That The Economist Intelligence Unit has issued a warning that further delays in crude oil feedstock to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals could jeopardise Nigeria’s economic recovery and put additional pressure on the naira.

 

 

 

Delay in crude supply to Dangote Refinery Poses Risk to Nigeria’s economy – EIU Report

 

 

 

The research and analysis division of the Economist Group said the Dangote refinery which began production in January has encountered setbacks in petrol production due to a shortage of crude oil feedstock.

 

 

 

 

 

It said the $20 billion facility has successfully exported various products, including fuel oil, naphtha, nitrogen fertilisers, gasoil, jet fuel, and diesel but has been able to ramp up petrol production due to challenges in sourcing adequate crude oil.

 

 

Delay in crude supply to Dangote Refinery Poses Risk to Nigeria’s economy – EIU Report

 

 

 

These delays are expected to have significant economic repercussions for Nigeria, potentially worsening the already strained relationship between public finances and the management of the naira, the country’s currency.

 

 

 

The report said though the government had previously scrapped the official petrol subsidy in June 2023, the practice of unofficially subsidizing petrol continues, with substantial implications for the national budget. It pointed out that this has led to increased currency losses, contributing to a widening budget deficit that has become increasingly difficult to manage and could force the Central Bank of Nigeria to revert to stronger management of the currency.

 

 

 

“As the federal government unofficially subsidises petrol (the official subsidy was scrapped in June 2023), currency losses feed into a widening budget deficit that is becoming more challenging to finance. This provides extra incentive for the central bank to revert to stronger management of the currency, as we already expect, but the degree of market intervention could become heavier. Meanwhile, ongoing fuel imports would reduce the current-account surplus from the 1.9% of GDP that we currently project for 2025, potentially leading to lower foreign reserves and the return to a more rigid and unstable foreign-exchange system,” it said.

 

 

 

The delay in securing a reliable pipeline of affordable crude oil feedstock was attributed to low crude production due to oil theft and underinvestment, as well as using crude oil to repay outstanding loans.

 

 

 

“The refinery has encountered a range of problems, both practical and political in nature. The most publicly discussed issue is how the refinery can secure a reliable pipeline of crude oil feedstock at affordable prices. NNPC, the state oil firm, has not been able to provide enough volume. The government has promised to deliver 450,000 b/d of oil to the refinery through NNPC in a pilot scheme, sold in naira, but the state oil company is not in a position to make this a reliable arrangement. Crude production in Nigeria is stubbornly low, as a result of oil theft and underinvestment. Output was 1.31m b/d in July, against an OPEC+ target of 1.38m b/d. NNPC receives a varying minority share of this and, moreover, a sizable quantity (about 90,000 b/d) is being committed as loan collateral,” it added.

 

 

 

The situation, it said, has been worsened by International Oil Companies (IOCs) operating in Nigeria, which demand a premium of $3-$4 per barrel over the prices they receive elsewhere. It noted that regulators are hesitant to enforce the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO)—which requires IOCs to sell crude to local refineries—out of concern that such enforcement might lead to divestment.

 

 

 

The report emphasised that producing fuel locally would significantly benefit Nigeria’s fiscal position and currency, given that petroleum products account for 15% to 20% of the country’s goods import bill. The Dangote refinery, hailed as a transformative development, is expected to resolve the paradox of Nigeria being a major crude oil producer yet still dependent on fuel imports. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (b/d), the refinery could potentially eliminate the need for fuel imports and shield local fuel prices from exchange-rate fluctuations.

 

 

 

“The Dangote fuel refinery is potentially transformational for Nigeria, which has always been an oil exporter and fuel importer. This fact is often regarded as a failure and an embarrassment by politicians, businesses and the media alike, but the new refinery has the ability to change this,” it said.

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Sahara weekly online is published by First Sahara weekly international. contact [email protected]

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Setting the Record Straight: Clarifying NNPCL’s Role in the Dangote Refinery Investment

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December 18, 2024

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General Buratai Urges Dangote Not To Succumb To Marketers Blackmail, Reveals Why

Setting the Record Straight: Clarifying NNPCL’s Role in the Dangote Refinery Investment

We have received numerous inquiries from the media and concerned stakeholders seeking clarification regarding a recent report attributed to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL). The report suggested that NNPCL’s decision to secure a $1 billion loan backed by its crude was instrumental in supporting the Dangote Refinery during liquidity challenges.

Setting the Record Straight: Clarifying NNPCL's Role in the Dangote Refinery Investment

We wish to categorically state that this narrative is a misrepresentation of the facts. The $1 billion referenced constitutes just about 5% of the total investment in building the Dangote Refinery.

Our partnership with NNPCL was established based on their strategic importance as the largest offtaker of Nigerian crude and, at the time, the sole supplier of gasoline into Nigeria. As part of this agreement, a 20% stake in the refinery was valued at $2.76 billion. Of this amount, NNPCL agreed to pay $1 billion upfront, while the remaining balance was structured to be recovered over five years through crude oil supply deductions and dividends.

If we had been facing liquidity challenges, such generous credit terms would not have been feasible. At the time of the agreement in 2021, the refinery was still in its pre-commissioning phase. Any claims suggesting financial struggles are inconsistent with the structure and nature of this agreement.

Regrettably, NNPCL was unable to meet its commitment to supply the agreed 300,000 barrels per day of crude oil due to pre-existing financial commitments tied to their crude cargoes. Given this, we extended a 12-month period for NNPCL to pay cash for the balance of their equity. However, they were unable to meet the deadline, which expired on June 30, 2024. Consequently, NNPCL’s equity stake in the refinery was adjusted to 7.24%.

It is therefore inaccurate to claim that NNPCL facilitated a $1 billion investment amid liquidity challenges. Their $1 billion investment secured a 7.24% ownership stake in the Dangote Refinery, a strategic partnership beneficial to their interests.

NNPCL remains a valued partner, and we urge all stakeholders to adhere to the facts and provide accurate information to ensure proper media representation for the benefit of all stakeholders and the public.

Anthony Chiejina
Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer
18th December, 2024

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MTN Contributes N200bn Monthly in VAT, Driving Tax Reform Debate

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December 18, 2024

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MTN Contributes N200bn Monthly in VAT, Driving Tax Reform Debate

MTN Contributes N200bn Monthly in VAT, Driving Tax Reform Debate

 

MTN Nigeria, the nation’s largest telecom company, pays over N200 billion in Value Added Tax (VAT) monthly, making it the single biggest contributor to the country’s VAT revenue, according to Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee.

Speaking at Channels Television’s Town Hall on Tax Reforms, Oyedele highlighted significant disparities in the current VAT allocation system, revealing that all VAT paid by MTN is credited solely to Lagos State, where the company’s headquarters is located, despite the fact that services generating this revenue are consumed nationwide.

“MTN is the largest contributor to VAT in Nigeria,” Oyedele stated. “They pay over N200bn every month, and the gap between them and the second-largest contributor is massive. However, all this VAT is currently allocated to Lagos, even as calls are made across states like Kano, the FCT, Ekiti, Edo, and Kebbi.”

As part of the ongoing tax reform efforts, the committee has proposed a new framework to ensure equitable distribution of VAT revenues based on consumption rather than the corporate headquarters’ location.

Under the proposed redistribution model, Lagos State, which now retains the full N200bn from MTN, would see its share reduced to around 20 per cent. The remaining revenue would be distributed more fairly among other states where the services are consumed.

“This adjustment ensures states where VAT is generated get their fair share,” Oyedele explained. “While Lagos State’s share decreases slightly, every other state stands to gain under the new system.”

The tax reform bill, designed to address inefficiencies and promote fairness in Nigeria’s fiscal policies, has sparked debate among stakeholders. Critics have accused the committee of advancing policies that may negatively impact certain regions.

Oyedele, however, dismissed these claims, arguing that the current system is flawed and in need of urgent correction. “If something is being done wrongly, how can Lagos State or anyone oppose reforms aimed at fixing it?” he questioned.

The proposed reforms, which include provisions for revenue redistribution and efficiency improvements, are seen as pivotal to ensuring fairness and sustainability in Nigeria’s tax system.

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Foreign Digital Giants Boost FG Revenue with N3.8tn Tax Payment in 2024

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December 18, 2024

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Foreign Digital Giants Boost FG Revenue with N3.8tn Tax Payment in 2024

Foreign Digital Giants Boost FG Revenue with N3.8tn Tax Payment in 2024

 

Google, Netflix, Facebook, and other foreign companies operating in Nigeria contributed N3.85tn in taxes to the Federal Government in the first nine months of 2024. This represents a 68.12 per cent increase compared to the N2.29tn collected in the same period of 2023.

The tax revenue includes payments from Company Income Tax (CIT) and Value Added Tax (VAT), as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. The report highlighted a progressive increase, with collections rising from N1.03tn in the first quarter to N1.52tn in the second quarter and N1.30tn in the third quarter.

An analysis of the data shows a significant boost in tax remittance, with N2.57tn collected as CIT between January and September 2024—a 43.65 per cent rise from N1.789tn during the same period in 2023. VAT collections also surged by 157.03 per cent, reaching N1.28tn, up from N498.34bn in 2023. This growth underscores the Federal Inland Revenue Service’s (FIRS) improved collection efforts.

CIT is a 30 per cent tax on corporate profits, while VAT, set at 7.5 per cent, is levied on goods and services and ultimately paid by the final consumer.

Quarterly analysis reveals that CIT revenue climbed from N598.13bn in Q1 to N1.12tn in Q2, before slightly dipping to N852.29bn in Q3. VAT collections rose from N435.73bn in Q1 to N448.85bn in Q3, reflecting a 3.01 per cent increase.

The Federal Government’s efforts to tax foreign digital service providers have further bolstered revenues. These companies, including Netflix, Facebook, and Amazon, earn income in naira without physical offices in Nigeria. Digital tax policies require these entities to remit taxes for services like video streaming, social media advertising, and e-commerce.

Compliance among foreign platforms remains uneven, with Google, LinkedIn, and Meta adhering to regulations outlined in the “Code of Practice for Interactive Computer Service Platforms and Internet Intermediaries.” Meanwhile, TikTok and X (formerly Twitter) are yet to fulfill tax obligations.

The former Accountant-General of the Federation, Oluwatoyin Madein, noted earlier this year that tax revenue has become Nigeria’s highest income source. She emphasized its importance in supporting government activities across federal, state, and local levels, describing it as a critical contributor to the nation’s economic stability.

With the Federal Government’s tax revenue target set at N19.4tn for 2024, these gains bring Nigeria closer to its fiscal goals.

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