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‘Economy might slip back into recession’- CBN Warns

Published

8 years ago

September 26, 2018

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria on Tuesday warned that weak economic fundamentals currently being shown by the economy were putting the country’s exit from recession under threat.

The Nigerian economy exited recession in 2017 after suffering contraction for five consecutive quarters.

Addressing journalists shortly after the two-day meeting of the MPC members held at the headquarters of the apex bank, the CBN Governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, said the economy had started showing signs of weakness.

For instance, he said the committee was concerned that there was a fresh threat of recession as the economy recorded growth rate of 1.95 per cent and 1.5 per cent during the first and the second quarters of this year, respectively.

He noted that the slowdown emanated from the oil sector, with strong linkages to employment and growth.

For instance, the apex bank boss said the late implementation of the 2018 budget, weakening demand and consumer spending, rising contractor debts, and low minimum wage were some of the risks to output growth.

Others, according to him, are the impact of flooding on agricultural output, continued security challenges in the North-East and North-Central zones, and growing level of sovereign debts.

Emefiele stated, “The MPC observed that despite the underperformance of key monetary aggregates, headline inflation inched up to 11.23 per cent in August 2018 from 11.14 per cent in July 2018.

“The near time upside risks to inflation remain the dissipation of the base effect expected from 2019 election related spending, continued herdsmen attacks on farmers and episode of flooding, which destroyed farmlands and affected food supply ultimately.

“In this regard, the committee urges the fiscal authorities to sustain implementation of the 2018 budget to relieve the supply side growth constraints so that they can address the flooding, which has become perennial on a permanent basis.

“Relative stability has returned to the foreign exchange market buoyed by the robust external reserves, with inflation trending downward for the 18th consecutive month.”

He added, “The gains so far achieved appeared to be under threat following the new data, which provides evidence of weakening fundamentals. The committee identified rise in inflation and pressure on the external reserves created by the capital flows reversals as the current challenges to growth.

“It noted that the underlying pressures have started rebuilding and capital flows reversals have intensified as shown by the bearish trend in the equities’ market even though the exchange rate remains very stable.

“The committee was concerned that the exit from recession may be under threat as the economy slid to 1.95 per cent and 1.5 per cent during the first and the second quarters of 2018, respectively.

“The committee noted that the slowdown emanated from the oil sector with strong linkages to employment and growth.”

On what could be done to stimulate economic activities, the CBN governor said that though growth remained weak, the effective implementation of the 2018 Federal Government budget and policies that would encourage credit delivery to the real sector of the economy might boost aggregate demand, stimulate economic activity and reduce unemployment in the country.

The CBN governor said the committee urged government to take advantage of the current rising trend in oil prices to rebuild fiscal buffers, strengthen government finances in the medium term and reverse the current trend of decline in output growth.

The MPC, according to him, also called on the fiscal authority to intensify the implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan to stimulate economic activities, bridge the output gap and create employment.

The apex bank boss said the MPC expressed concern over the potential impact of liquidity injection from election-related spending and increase in federal allocations, which are rising in tandem with increase in oil receipts.

Emefiele added that the committee was concerned with the rising level of non-performing loans in the banking system, and urged the banks to closely monitor and address the situation.

He also expressed concern over the weak intermediation by Deposit Money Banks and its adverse impact on credit expansion as well as investment growth by the private sector.

While revealing the outcome of the meeting, Emefiele explained that seven out of the 10 members of the committee agreed to maintain the current monetary policy stance, while three voted to increase the rates.

According to him, the MPC decided to leave the Monetary Policy Rate unchanged at 14 per cent.

Apart from the MPR, which was retained at 14 per cent, the committee also retained the Cash Reserves Ratio at 22.5 per cent.

Also retained were the Liquidity Ratio which was left at 30 per cent; and the Asymmetric Window, which was left at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR.

Explaining the rationale for the decision, the CBN governor said, “Tightening will tame inflationary pressure, tame the reversal of portfolio capital, improve the external reserves, and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.

“Conversely, the committee also noted that raising rate would further weaken growth, as credit would become more expensive, non-performing loan would increase further, leading to a deceleration in output.

“In the committee opinion, the upward adjustment would not only signal the bank’s commitment to price stability, but also its desire to maintain all policy interest rates.”

He added, “A decision to hold all policy parameters will sustain natural improvement in output growth.

“There is need to maintain the current policy stand and await a clearer understanding of the quantum and timing of liquidity injection into the economy before deciding on possible adjustment.”

When asked about the state of the Nigerian banking system following the withdrawal of the licence of the defunct Skye Bank Plc, the governor insisted that the Nigerian banking system remained “sound and healthy.”

He said, “In every chain, there will always be strong points and weak points in a chain, but what we will continue to do is to make sure that that chain remains strong in all aspects of it. Notwithstanding that, as we see areas where there are weaknesses, we will do everything possible to make sure that we keep the chain linked together, and that is what we did with Skye Bank.

“As I have said before, I will love to see a situation where banks are not liquidated, that we have to think outside the box to see how much we can ensure that we have more banks in the country than have less number of banks in the country, and that is what we are doing.

“The situation with Skye Bank, as you well know, is that as at two years ago when the news broke that the bank had slide into negative capital as a result of Non-Performing Loan, at that time, we compelled the entire board and executives to resign and they did.”

Emefiele added, “After that, before we conducted an internal audit, the hole (financial gap) was about N370bn. After the forensic audit, it came to the level it is today, which is almost about N800bn

“So what we did was to say that having established a hole at this level, taxpayers’ money will be invested in this bank as a loan. So, we decided that there is a need to let shareholders know, particularly those that have lost their investments; we will try to make sure that small investors remain protected.

“It is for this reason that the name had to be changed for legal reasons. Having got to the point where the Central Bank of Nigeria has invested close to N800bn in this bank, at some point it must be seen to be owned by the CBN until we find investors that can pay a fair price for the bank.”

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FCMB Limits Exposure in Fraud Attempt

Published

2 weeks ago

March 28, 2026

Sahara Weekly

More than ₦3 billion was targeted, but about ₦677 million reached the culprits, with recovery and prosecutions underway, reflecting how banks are responding to more sophisticated fraud risks.

Nigeria’s expanding digital banking sector is facing increasingly sophisticated fraud attempts, as financial institutions adapt to faster transactions and broader online services.

A recent case involving First City Monument Bank (FCMB), linked to fraudulent activity detected in December 2025, has drawn attention to how banks are responding to such incidents, with a focus on limiting exposure, recovering funds and working with law enforcement.

According to findings referenced in proceedings before the Lagos State Special Offences Court, the incident involved unauthorised transactions tied to a digital product. Early reports erroneously suggested more than ₦3 billion was lost. Subsequent clarification shows that over ₦3 billion was targeted, ₦2.4 billion was blocked and recovered, while ₦677 million got into the possession of the culprits. This outcome reflects the bank’s cyber security and monitoring capabilities, as well as improved collaboration among regulated financial institutions and with law enforcement agencies. Several suspects and beneficiaries have been apprehended, while recovery and prosecution efforts are ongoing, led by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

Proceedings at the Lagos State Special Offences Court have resulted in convictions, including that of a repeat offender, with restitution orders issued. Related matters are also being handled at the Federal High Court in Lagos, where additional suspects are being tried in connection with the scheme. This process is aimed at ensuring that bad actors are identified and permanently blacklisted from the financial system.

Authorities say recovery efforts are continuing as additional funds are traced.

Analysts note that the pace of legal action reflects closer coordination between financial institutions and enforcement agencies in addressing cyber-related financial crime.

The case comes as banks contend with more complex fraud methods, including social engineering and automated exploitation of system processes.

As digital products and platforms expand, so too does the risk associated with cyber-crime and related fraud.

“The scale of digital banking means risks are evolving alongside the systems,” said a Lagos-based financial analyst. “Institutions are now judged by how they manage these events.”

Observers say the sector is moving toward a stronger focus on response and recovery, rather than prevention alone.

This includes improving monitoring capabilities, strengthening transaction controls and enhancing collaboration with regulators and law enforcement. The FCMB case, with limited exposure relative to the amount targeted and ongoing recovery, reflects that shift.

For customers, the primary concern is the safety of their funds. In this case, there has been no indication of losses affecting customer deposits. Maintaining that level of protection remains central to sustaining trust in the financial system.

Nigeria’s financial sector continues to grow, supported by digital innovation and expanding access to banking services.

However, analysts say fraud attempts are likely to persist as systems become more complex and interconnected.

They say institutions will increasingly be judged not only on their ability to prevent incidents, but on how effectively they respond and recover when they occur.

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Ex-APC Deputy Guber flag bearer, Joshua MacIver backs Tinubu, express fears over implosion in Bayelsa APC

Published

3 weeks ago

March 21, 2026

Sahara Weekly

….congratulates new State Party Chairman, Warman Ogoriba

APC Deputy Governorship Candidate in the 2023 general elections in Bayelsa State, Great Joshua MacIver has declared his total commitment to the re-election of President Bola Tinubu come 2027, declaring that the Tinubu re-election project is non-negotiable.

Great Joshua MacIver, in his statement titled ” BAYELSA APC CONGRESSES: GOING FORWARD, A CALL TO LOOK INWARDS” and made available to newsmen in Yenagoa, warned APC leaders in the state to look Inward and take note of certain factors which may hinder or cut short our victory.

According to Great Joshua MacIver, such noticeable pitfalls include the imbalance in the united front being put up by the State Governor,Senator Douye Diri among various political blocs in the state.

In the statement issued at the weekend. Great Joshua MacIver stated that “First, before His Excellency, Senator Douye Diri, joined the APC in the state, there were clearly two political blocs that made up the party, with the approximate population ratios of the blocs standing at 95% to 5%.”

“After the entrance of His Excellency, Senator Douye Diri, ONLY THE SMALLER BLOC IS BEING CARRIED ALONG IN THE AFFAIRS OF THE PARTY, leaving the greater percentage to their fate, and this situation has the potential to build anger and dissatisfaction in our dear party.”

” The consequence of this has been the high level defection we have witnessed in the party recently and we believe more may likely follow, if we do not put our house in order.”

” If we do not pull together as a party, we may witness a situation where we will lose key stakeholders, especially after the State and National Assembly Primaries as well the Gubernatorial Primaries.”

“Finally, while it is very clear that we are the party to beat in the 2027 elections and that our loyalty to Mr. President IS NON-NEGOTIABLE, we must make haste to say that we cannot afford to create situations or loopholes in our unity which will be exploited by other political interests in the state. We cannot afford to under-rate anyone.”

“Our core interest remains the re-election of Mr. President, a project to which we have committed our all. We also pledge our total loyalty to the party as we have no alternative to the APC. However, our concern is that we must, as a party, look inwards and ensure that we do not create loopholes that can impede our common goal.”

Great Joshua MacIver, however congratulated the newly elected State Executives of the APC in Bayelsà State led by Hon. Warman Ogoriba, saying their emergence is welcomed at this critical time in our national history.

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How Primate Ayodele Foretold Borno Suicide Bomb Attack A Few Weeks Ago (VIDEO)

Published

3 weeks ago

March 17, 2026

Sahara Weekly

“You Can’t Use Primate Ayodele To Score Points For Your Failed Political Ambitions” – Fulani Group Blasts Umar Ardo

At least 23 people were killed in a series of suspected suicide bombings, police in Nigeria’s northeastern city of Maiduguri said on Tuesday.

https://www.stanbicibtcbank.com/nigeriabank/personal/products-and-services/all-loans/stanbic-ibtc-mreif-home-loans

More than 100 other people were injured in the blasts that took place on Monday evening in the capital of Nigeria’s restive Borno state.

No group has claimed responsibility for the suspected attacks.

The deadly blasts come after a military post was attacked overnight Sunday to Monday, which authorities blamed on suspected Islamist militants.

This sad incident is coming barely two weeks after Primate Elijah Ayodele, the Leader of INRI Evangelical Spiritual Church specifically warned against attacks in some states. He mentioned these states while calling on security operatives to pay close attention to them.

These were his words:

“Another attack is coming up in these following states where the military must watch carefully and intelligently; Kano, Kaduna, Zamfara, Kebbi, Niger, Borno, Kwara and Kogi state. They want to do a deadly attack, it’s preventable but it depends on how they will handle it. I have told you about the danger coming up.”

@primateayodele

#borno #nigeria #fulfillment #security #primateayodele

♬ original sound – Primate Ayodele

Unfortunately, some of our military agencies don’t believe spiritual intelligence can save the country from so much danger hence, their neglect of this prophetic warning but now, it has been fulfilled with the miliary losing credibility by the day while Primate Ayodele continues to gain momentum.

Likewise, At least 26 passengers and crew sustained varying degrees of injuries on Monday following an accident involving the Kaduna–Abuja train, according to the Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC).

Opeifa explained that the train departed Rigasa in Kaduna at 7:15 a.m. and was approaching Asham station around 9:16 a.m. when a loud bang was heard after the power car and trailing locomotive collided with one of the passenger coaches.

In July 2025, Primate Ayodele asked nigerians to pray not to see train mishap on the Kaduna-Abuja route.