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‘Economy might slip back into recession’- CBN Warns
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria on Tuesday warned that weak economic fundamentals currently being shown by the economy were putting the country’s exit from recession under threat.
The Nigerian economy exited recession in 2017 after suffering contraction for five consecutive quarters.
Addressing journalists shortly after the two-day meeting of the MPC members held at the headquarters of the apex bank, the CBN Governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, said the economy had started showing signs of weakness.
For instance, he said the committee was concerned that there was a fresh threat of recession as the economy recorded growth rate of 1.95 per cent and 1.5 per cent during the first and the second quarters of this year, respectively.
He noted that the slowdown emanated from the oil sector, with strong linkages to employment and growth.
For instance, the apex bank boss said the late implementation of the 2018 budget, weakening demand and consumer spending, rising contractor debts, and low minimum wage were some of the risks to output growth.
Others, according to him, are the impact of flooding on agricultural output, continued security challenges in the North-East and North-Central zones, and growing level of sovereign debts.
Emefiele stated, “The MPC observed that despite the underperformance of key monetary aggregates, headline inflation inched up to 11.23 per cent in August 2018 from 11.14 per cent in July 2018.
“The near time upside risks to inflation remain the dissipation of the base effect expected from 2019 election related spending, continued herdsmen attacks on farmers and episode of flooding, which destroyed farmlands and affected food supply ultimately.
“In this regard, the committee urges the fiscal authorities to sustain implementation of the 2018 budget to relieve the supply side growth constraints so that they can address the flooding, which has become perennial on a permanent basis.
“Relative stability has returned to the foreign exchange market buoyed by the robust external reserves, with inflation trending downward for the 18th consecutive month.”
He added, “The gains so far achieved appeared to be under threat following the new data, which provides evidence of weakening fundamentals. The committee identified rise in inflation and pressure on the external reserves created by the capital flows reversals as the current challenges to growth.
“It noted that the underlying pressures have started rebuilding and capital flows reversals have intensified as shown by the bearish trend in the equities’ market even though the exchange rate remains very stable.
“The committee was concerned that the exit from recession may be under threat as the economy slid to 1.95 per cent and 1.5 per cent during the first and the second quarters of 2018, respectively.
“The committee noted that the slowdown emanated from the oil sector with strong linkages to employment and growth.”
On what could be done to stimulate economic activities, the CBN governor said that though growth remained weak, the effective implementation of the 2018 Federal Government budget and policies that would encourage credit delivery to the real sector of the economy might boost aggregate demand, stimulate economic activity and reduce unemployment in the country.
The CBN governor said the committee urged government to take advantage of the current rising trend in oil prices to rebuild fiscal buffers, strengthen government finances in the medium term and reverse the current trend of decline in output growth.
The MPC, according to him, also called on the fiscal authority to intensify the implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan to stimulate economic activities, bridge the output gap and create employment.
The apex bank boss said the MPC expressed concern over the potential impact of liquidity injection from election-related spending and increase in federal allocations, which are rising in tandem with increase in oil receipts.
Emefiele added that the committee was concerned with the rising level of non-performing loans in the banking system, and urged the banks to closely monitor and address the situation.
He also expressed concern over the weak intermediation by Deposit Money Banks and its adverse impact on credit expansion as well as investment growth by the private sector.
While revealing the outcome of the meeting, Emefiele explained that seven out of the 10 members of the committee agreed to maintain the current monetary policy stance, while three voted to increase the rates.
According to him, the MPC decided to leave the Monetary Policy Rate unchanged at 14 per cent.
Apart from the MPR, which was retained at 14 per cent, the committee also retained the Cash Reserves Ratio at 22.5 per cent.
Also retained were the Liquidity Ratio which was left at 30 per cent; and the Asymmetric Window, which was left at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR.
Explaining the rationale for the decision, the CBN governor said, “Tightening will tame inflationary pressure, tame the reversal of portfolio capital, improve the external reserves, and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.
“Conversely, the committee also noted that raising rate would further weaken growth, as credit would become more expensive, non-performing loan would increase further, leading to a deceleration in output.
“In the committee opinion, the upward adjustment would not only signal the bank’s commitment to price stability, but also its desire to maintain all policy interest rates.”
He added, “A decision to hold all policy parameters will sustain natural improvement in output growth.
“There is need to maintain the current policy stand and await a clearer understanding of the quantum and timing of liquidity injection into the economy before deciding on possible adjustment.”
When asked about the state of the Nigerian banking system following the withdrawal of the licence of the defunct Skye Bank Plc, the governor insisted that the Nigerian banking system remained “sound and healthy.”
He said, “In every chain, there will always be strong points and weak points in a chain, but what we will continue to do is to make sure that that chain remains strong in all aspects of it. Notwithstanding that, as we see areas where there are weaknesses, we will do everything possible to make sure that we keep the chain linked together, and that is what we did with Skye Bank.
“As I have said before, I will love to see a situation where banks are not liquidated, that we have to think outside the box to see how much we can ensure that we have more banks in the country than have less number of banks in the country, and that is what we are doing.
“The situation with Skye Bank, as you well know, is that as at two years ago when the news broke that the bank had slide into negative capital as a result of Non-Performing Loan, at that time, we compelled the entire board and executives to resign and they did.”
Emefiele added, “After that, before we conducted an internal audit, the hole (financial gap) was about N370bn. After the forensic audit, it came to the level it is today, which is almost about N800bn
“So what we did was to say that having established a hole at this level, taxpayers’ money will be invested in this bank as a loan. So, we decided that there is a need to let shareholders know, particularly those that have lost their investments; we will try to make sure that small investors remain protected.
“It is for this reason that the name had to be changed for legal reasons. Having got to the point where the Central Bank of Nigeria has invested close to N800bn in this bank, at some point it must be seen to be owned by the CBN until we find investors that can pay a fair price for the bank.”
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Director General NSC, Bar. Bukola Olopade Extends Christmas Greetings to Christians in Abeokuta South and Across Nigeria
Director General NSC, Bar. Bukola Olopade Extends Christmas Greetings to Christians in Abeokuta South and Across Nigeria
By Solanke Ayomideji Taiwo
In a heartfelt message, The Director General of the National Sports Commission (NSC), Honourable Bukola Olopade, has extended warm festive greetings to Christians in Abeokuta South, Ogun State, and across Nigeria as the nation embarks on the joyous celebration of Christmas.
Recognizing the significance of this time of year, Olopade emphasized the essence of unity, love, and gratitude that the Christmas season embodies. He urged citizens to reflect on the virtues of compassion and generosity, which are particularly vital in fostering peace and harmony in communities.
“Christmas is a time for joy, reflection, and togetherness. It reminds us of the values of love and kindness, which are fundamental to our social fabric,” said Olopade. “As we celebrate this festive season, let us remember those in need and extend a hand of support to one another.”
The Director General of the National Sports Commission (NSC), Honourable Bukola Olopade, acknowledged the challenges that many have faced over the past year, including economic hardships and social unrest, yet he expressed optimism for the future. “In the spirit of Christmas, let us embrace hope and look forward to a brighter tomorrow. Our unity and resilience can overcome any challenges we face.”
Olopade also highlighted the importance of sports in promoting peace and national unity, noting that the NSC is committed to fostering an inclusive environment where all Nigerians can participate in sports and recreational activities. He encouraged communities to engage in sports events during the festive period as a means to strengthen bonds and celebrate togetherness.
As part of his Christmas message, Olopade called on everyone to prioritize the welfare of others, particularly the less fortunate. He urged individuals and organizations to consider charitable acts that can uplift those in need during this season of giving.
In closing, Bar. Bukola Olopade wished all Nigerians a Merry Christmas filled with love, peace, and joy. He expressed hope that the spirit of the season would inspire a renewed commitment to community service and cooperation among citizens.
As the festivities continue, the Chairman’s message resonates with the values of compassion, unity, and hope, encouraging all to celebrate the true meaning of Christmas.
Dangote Hails Tinubu on Impact of Crude for Naira Swap Deal
…As Dangote Refinery partners MRS to sell PMS at N935 per litre nationwide at its retail outlets
Sahara Weekly Unveils That The Foremost entrepreneur and President of the Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote has commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the positive impact of the naira for crude swap deal on the Nigerian economy, which has led to reduction in prices of petroleum products in the country.
To provide succour to Nigerians, Dangote recently reduced the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from N970 to N899.50 at its Refinery loading gantry and provided generous credit terms to marketers.
“To ensure that this price reduction gets to the end consumer, we have signed a partnership with MRS to sell petrol from its retail outlets nationwide at N935 per litre” he added. This price has already commenced in Lagos, and it will be offered nationwide from Monday.
In his statement, he called on other oil marketers such as the NNPC Retail and all other marketers, “to work with us to ensure that Nigerians enjoy high-quality petrol at discounted prices.”
According to him, “The Dangote Refinery is for the benefit of Nigeria and Nigerians. We will therefore continue to work with various value chain players to deliver high quality petrol at cheaper prices. Our aim is for all Nigerians to have ready access to high quality petroleum products that are good for their vehicles, good for their health, and good for their pockets.
Recall that in September, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) under the leadership of Mr. President approved the sale of crude to local refineries in Naira and corresponding purchase of petroleum products in Naira. The move, which commenced on October 1, led to reduced pressure on the dollar and ensured the stability of the local currency.
Dangote thanked Nigerians for their unwavering support and the government for creating an enabling environment for the domestic refining industry.
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