Politics
Governorship Election: Kebbi Looks Good For PDP—Dr Abubakar Alkalii
Governorship Election: Kebbi Looks Good For PDP—Dr Abubakar Alkali
After the nationwide Presidential and National Assembly elections, attention is now shifted to the statewide Guber and state houses of assembly elections which promises to be another possible switch from the conventional nay traditional pattern of elections in Nigeria. There is the likelihood of surprises in some states, particularly in the South-East and the South-South including some parts of the middle belt owing to the Obi tsunami sweeping across mainly the southern and North central parts of the country.
The two main political parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may not have a smooth sail in some of the states under their control owing largely to the tsunami of the Labour Party in the SE and SS and parts of the North-central. From all indications, there is largely going to be a change of guard party-wise in many states including the North West and North -East although the power of incumbency will still play out in some states.
This Saturday, Gubernatorial elections are expected to hold in 28 out of the 36 states.
The states where the Guber elections will hold this Saturday are as follows:
Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara.
17 state governors have completed their second terms and will not be seeking re-election.
These states are Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Kano, Benue, Niger, Plateau, Taraba, Cross Rivers, Rivers, Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia, Ekiti, Delta.
The 11 states where Governors are seeking re-election: Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Zamfara, Kwara, Nassarawa, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo.
The 8 ‘off-season’ states where Guber elections will not be this Saturday are:
Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Osun, and Ondo
Likely outcome
Below is a state-by-state analysis of the likely outcome of the Guber elections this Saturday.
ABIA– The Labour Party is almost certainly winning this state by a wide margin. This will be part of the Obi tsunami sweeping across the SE and SS geopolitical zone and part of the North-central. The ruling PDP in the state will come a distant second.
ADAMAWA-The APC is fielding the first female Guber candidate in the state Sen Binani. Although she had made history, Sen Aishatu Binani will not be able to overcome the ‘men’ in the PDP. The PDP will win Adamawa but Sen Binani will almost certainly be involved in the incoming Tinubu administration as a minister and member of the federal executive council or something close to that. The PDP will retain this state by a reasonable margin.
AKWA IBOM– Despite the Obi tsunami sweeping across the SE and SS, the PDP will retain this state but Labour will come a close second.
BAUCHI– The PDP will win this state albeit it faces stiff opposition from the APC. If the APC can strike a realistic deal with the NNPP, it may make a better showing but the PDP will win it regardless.
BENUE– The Obedient Labour Party is on the rise in this state but the APC will win it. The APC has the advantage of fielding a very popular and charismatic candidate Rev Fr Hyacinth Alia. The influence of the kingmaker Sen George Akume will come into play here. However, if the PDP can negotiate a workable alliance with Labour, it may cause more problems for the APC.
BORNO: This is a classical APC territory. With the popularity of Governor Zulum and VP – elect Kashim Shettima, it will be a straightforward victory for the APC.
CROSS RIVERS- This state is controlled by the APC after governor Ben Ayade made a bold political suicide of decamping to the APC knowing full well that the state is traditionally PDP. The governor may have thought that he can use his influence as governor to build the APC in the state but this doesn’t appear to be the case. The APC and PDP will divide their votes thus allowing the Labour Party to sneak in and win the state. The state will fall to the Obidients.
DELTA: The Labour Party will win this state and the PDP will come a close second. Obi tsunami is fully grounded in this state and even the go-getter APC candidate DSP Omo-Agege cannot stop the Obidients
EBONYI: The ruling APC will likely lose this state to Labour Party by a wide margin. The Obi tsunami will sweep through Ebonyi with ease.
ENUGU- The Labour Party will easily win this state with PDP coming a distant second. The dark horse Guber candidate of the Labour Party in Enugu state is already banking on his luck
GOMBE: The PDP won the Presidential election convincingly in this state owing to a mix of anti-party activities by some APC leaders and the growing unpopularity of the current governor Inuwa. The PDP will likely have a smooth sale and win the state but it will be a tight race.
JIGAWA: A supposed APC territory although the PDP has a very good ground as well. The only stumbling block to APC’s victory is if the PDP can work out an alliance with the NNPP. This seems too late to happen though.
KADUNA- This state is a test case of Nigeria and a clear example of what happened during the Presidential election where the Labour Party ate into PDP’s votes to deny the PDP victory and allow the APC to sneak in and smile home. If the Labour Party contests the election, the APC will likely win the state because Labour will eat up PDP’s votes in Southern Kaduna. On the other hand, if the Labour Party candidate withdraws or goes into an alliance with the PDP, the APC will be out of Sir Kashim Ibrahim’s house in a jiffy. The PDP has a good chance to win the state.
KANO: The NNPP is on a smooth sail in Kano and will almost certainly clinch victory this Saturday while the APC will come a distant second. Even an alliance between the APC and PDP cannot stop Kwankwaso’s NNPP from winning the state. Abba Kabir Yusuf, the Guber candidate of the NNPP is not far from it when he said Governor Ganduje should start preparing his handover notes.
KATSINA: The current level of insecurity will make the APC lose the state to the PDP. The people of Katsina state feel that the State Government under Aminu Masari is not doing enough to fight insecurity in the state. Bandits are calling the shots and holding innocent villagers to ransom in many villages of katsina state. Recall that Governor Aminu Masari had almost given up on insecurity and surrendered to the bandits when he flatly told the people of Kstsuna state to ‘protect yourselves against the bandits. If you cannot afford a gun, use a catapult.
The PDP will win this state in s very tight race. An alliance between the APC and NNPP could be the game changer for the APC.
KEBBI– There is almost an indescribable resentment against the APC government led by Atiku Bagudu hence it is almost a fait accompli that the PDP will win this state. The people felt Governor Bagudu didn’t deliver the dividend of democracy to them throughout his tenure, not even close.
The PDP won the Presidential election in the state with a reasonable margin of almost 40,000 votes.
KWARA– This is another APC territory. The party had cemented its impending victory this Saturday by consuming some of the smaller parties in the state such as Labour and NNPP under an alliance of inconvenience.
LAGOS: The die is cast here and you can literally feel the tension in Lagos from Abuja. Clearly it is advantage APC over Labour because most of the Obidients may not bother in the Guber election than they did in the Presidential. The towering stature of Peter Obi seems to be the factor rather than the ideology of the Labour Party. 9 out of 10, Obidients voted for Peter Obi not really the Labour Party. This could be linked to the man’s seeming innocent look, charisma on one hand and ethnicity and religion on the other. So the Obidients in Lagos may not have the taste to come out emmasse to vote, climb the skies and ‘push it’ for the Labour Party candidate Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour against incumbent Governor Sanwo-Olu as they did on February 25th for Peter Obi against Asiwaju Tinubu.
The APC also has the power of incumbency to go with. On the other hand, if the Labour Party can strike an alliance with the PDP (which is highly unlikely), it could change the game. Additionally, the President-elect Asiwaju Tinubu will want to deliver his state as it will help his focus to deliver good governance at the national level devoid of distractions from his home state.
NASSARAWA: This is a straight battle between the APC and Labour. The PDP could be the kingmaker. Any of the top two that can get the PDP into an alliance will win the election. APC could win it with the help of the incumbency factor.
NIGER- The APC will win this state with a slim margin over the PDP. Labour could change the game in PDP’s favour if it goes into an alliance with the PDP.
OGUN- A traditional APC territory. The APC will win it by a reasonable margin over the PDP.
OYO- The APC won the Presidential election in this state because Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is on the ballot. It will be different in the Guber election where the PDP is likely going to retain the state.
PLATEAU- The only factor stopping the Labour Party from winning this election is an alliance between the APC and the PDP which is highly unlikely. The time is up for the APC in this state as the Obi tsunami is likely going to come to play here.
RIVERS- The APC won the Presidential election in this state but the story will change in the Guber election as Governor Wike will deploy his arsenal to ensure victory for his party, the PDP. The Labour Party has an outside chance in this state.
SOKOTO- This is going to be interesting because the growing resentment of the people of Sokoto state against the Aminu Tambuwal administration will come to play. The people of Sokoto state feel that the Tambuwal administration has not delivered the dividends of democracy to them throughout the 8 years it held sway. Also, the huge grassroots support enjoyed by Sen Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, the APC leader in the state may win it for the APC. Clearly the Tambuwal administration has not connected with the people in the state hence the PDP in the state will struggle this Saturday. The APC will win Sokoto state this Saturday but it will be close as the PDP looks desperate and will maximally use its power of incumbency.
TARABA- You can always expect a PDP victory in Taraba state no matter the odds. The Labour Party will come second.
YOBE- The PDP won the Presidential election in this state but that may change in the Guber election. It is fair to say though, that without the incumbency factor, the state could slip into the hands of the PDP. Indeed an upgrade of political consciousness is apparent in Yobe state. The APC will win it.
ZAMFARA- There is some sort of desperation by the APC to retain power in this state despite the growing unpopularity of the Bello Matawalle administration. The APC administration resorted to scare-mongering to win the Presidential election in the state but that will change this Saturday as the people feel that the state Governor is not doing enough to deal with the very high insecurity in the state just as some feel that he (Governor Matawalle) has a soft spot for the bandits who are on a mission to destroy Zamfara state and are continuously killing many innocent indigenes of the state. The lackadaisical attitude of the Matawalle administration towards tackling banditry in the state has led to the state being dubbed ‘capital of banditry in Nigeria. The people of Zamfara state are obviously not happy and would want to send a very strong and clear message this Saturday.
It will be very close but the PDP will win the state.
Politics
2027 BATTLE: How Much Nigeria Can Save, Invest In Infrastructure By Rotating Power Among Six Geo-political Zones For A Single Term Of Five Or Six Years
2027 BATTLE: How Much Nigeria Can Save, Invest In Infrastructure By Rotating Power Among Six Geo-political Zones For A Single Term Of Five Or Six Years
As a Southernern, particularly from the South East Geo-Political Zone, I believe the most potent argument for us in 2027 is that the North/South zoning arrangement of political power at the center is a scam. It’s a scam because it has only benefitted the South West and the North West geo-political zones since the return of ‘democracy’ (civil rule) in Nigeria on May 29, 1999. Nigeria, it must be clarified has six geo-political zones, not two.
Nigeria was divided into six geo-political zones in 1996 by the military government of General Sanni Abacha. This new zoning arrangement was a brainchild of the 1994/1995 Constitutional Conference chaired by the late Justice Adolphus Karibi-Whyte and empaneled by General Sanni Abacha.
At that Conference, no less a person than former Vice President Chief Alex Ekwueme and a group called Mkpoko Igbo proposed that since Nigeria will now be divided into six geo-political zones, to give all zones a sense of belonging within the Nigerian State, that power at the center should rotate among the six geo-political zones for a single term of five or six years. In their thinking, if power was rotated among the six geo-political zones for a single term of five or six years, within 30 years or 36 years, all six zones would have had one of their own leading Nigeria, particularly, from their first 11 (primus inter pares). The North and the South West delegations at that conference pooh-poohed Chief Alex Ekwueme and summarily shut down that all-important proposal. The rest they say is history.
More than 30 years later, there is yet no national peace, national cohesion, national political stability, national unity, and national loyalty to the Nigerian State. Had the proposal of Chief Alex Ekwueme and Mkpoko Igbo been adopted and implemented since 1999, at least, the 5th Geo-Political Zone would have had one of their own in Aso Villa today, and by 2035, the last geo-political zone would have being sending us one of their own to contest the Presidency across Nigeria’s current 18 political parties. This mathematics is if we had gone with a single term of six years (the maximum limit) as proposed by Dr. Ekwueme and the South East and South South delegates in that 1994/1995 Constitutional Conference.
Fast forward to today, in his recent Arise TV interview, and in some other public and private fora, H.E. Atiku Abubakar asked for Dr. Ekwueme’s forgiveness as he was among key Northern delegates in that Constitutional Conference from the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua group that opposed the rotational presidency among Nigeria’s geo-political zones. Waziri Adamawa had disclosed that he even apologized to Alex Ekwueme when he visited Oko, Anambra State, to pay homage to the former late vice president sometime in 2017/2018.
By and large, for 2027, I believe that the most potent argument that will sell in the South East is that the North East where Waziri Adamawa hails from, just like the South East (our region), had also been marginalized in the scheme of things in Nigeria. Aside from Alhaji Tafawa Balewa from Bauchi State (North East), nobody from the region/zone has been head of national government, head of state, or even president since 1966.
So, H.E. Atiku Abubakar is right in contesting the Presidential election billed for January 16, 2027, to right this wrong, and return Nigeria’s presidency to an equitable distribution of power at the center. When elected, and it’s entrenched in the Nigerian 1999 Constitution (as amended), that power rotates among the six geo-political zones for a single term of five or six years, this new formula will bring about national peace, national cohesion, national unity, and tremendously commandeer national loyalty among Nigerians from across the six geo-political zones for their beloved country, the Nigerian State.
As a budding political scientist of repute and ardent student of contemporary Nigerian history and politics, let me tell us what this formular would do for the Nigerian State. The battle for the soul of the Nigerian State will be ferocious at the zonal level, while the center will become unattractive. So, let’s say it is the turn of the North East Geo-Political Zone to produce the Presidency in 2027, the battle to gift Nigerians their First 11 (primus inter pares) will be ferocious across the States in the region. The people of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe will now be more interested in partisan politics, thus being proactive participants within the current 18 political parties in Nigeria.
Giving Nigeria’s configurations and peculiarities, one of the positives of this political proactiveness is that it’s a win-win situation for the entire region if a man from Adamawa becomes President of Nigeria in 2027. The people from Yobe, Borno, Taraba, Gombe, and Bauchi will be largely happy, contented, hold their peace, love Nigeria better, and be more loyal to the Nigerian State because one of their own is now the GCFR, the primus inter pares, and the No. 1 Citizen of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The steep insecurity that has ravaged the North East Geo-Political Zone since 2009, largely owing to perceived agelong marginalisation, oppression, injustices, would largely die down.
This will be the same case for the South East Geo-Political Zone. Biafra secessionist agitations, IPOB, ESN led by Nnamdi Kanu, will die a natural death. Justice and equity for all breeds contentment among men, and contentment among men births peace, unity, commandeers loyalty, and tremendously brings about prosperity. I stand to be challenged on this self-evident truth on any national television station.
When it is the turn of another region to produce the Presidency, after the North East has had their turn, all political parties in Nigeria must constitutionally present a Presidential candidate from the region whose turn it is to produce the presidency for a single term of six years. This rotational presidency formula must be entrenched in Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution (as amended) by May 29, 2027.
I avow that rotational presidency among Nigeria’s six geo-political zones for a single term of five or six years is the best political science solution to the agelong hydra-headed problem of Nigeria, especially in the guise of disunity, unpeaceful, and disloyalty problems among Nigerian citizens. Doing this will also largely curtail the executive rascalities, legislative rascalities, and judicial rascalities currently being perpetrated by the Bola Ahmed Tinubu led Executive arm; the Godswill Akpabio led Legislative arm; and the CJN Kudirat Motonmori Olatokunbo Kekere-Ekun led Judiciary arm.
The over desperation of getting re-elected for a second term in office, as shown today by Bola Tinubu, will be eraced for future Nigerian Presidents. The humongous money and depletion of Nigeria’s national treasury just for seeking re-election at all cost, and conducting elections will also be erased.
The Highfalutin, Draining Cost Of Conducting Elections In Nigeria?
For the 2023 general election, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) proposed N305 billion in May 2022, which was a 62 percent increase over the 2019 budget. Ultimately, the National Assembly approved N355 billion for the exercise, though the commission spent N313.4 billion as of September 2023.
For the 2027 general election, INEC Chairman Prof. Joash Amupitan proposed a total budget of N873.78 billion to the National Assembly in February 2026. This proposal includes N375.75 billion for election operations, N209.21 billion for technology, and N92.31 billion for administrative costs. The Bola Ahmed Tinubu led APC regime had previously allocated N1.01 trillion to INEC in the 2026 budget presented in January 2026.
Ladies and gentlemen, INEC’s election budget ballooned from N355 billion in 2023 to a whopping N873.78 billion for a re-election season in 2027? This is approximately a percentage increase of 146.13%. This is unacceptable, opprobrious, and insalubrious.
If we entrench in the Nigerian 1999 Constitution (as amended), zoning the presidency among the six geo-political zones for a single term of five or six years, this proposed N873.78 billion to coduct the 2027 re-election season would have been eliminated.
What Can N873.78 billion Do For Nigerians In Terms Of Infrastructural Developmental Projects?
If hypothetically redirected or matched in scale for infrastructure development, N873.78 billion could significantly advance Nigeria’s infrastructure across key sectors:
1. Roads and Transportation: This amount could fund the rehabilitation of over 10,000 kilometers (6213.712 miles) of rural and urban roads, especially when combined with technical support from institutions like the World Bank’s RAAMP-SU project.
It could complete critical projects like the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway or support the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, enhancing regional connectivity and trade.
2. Railway Development: Based on past projects, N873 billion could finance a new 600–800 km (373-497 miles) standard gauge rail line, similar to the Abuja-Kaduna or Lagos-Ibadan lines, which were partially funded by Chinese loans.
Rail expansion would boost freight movement, reduce road congestion, and create thousands of jobs.
3. Power and Energy: The sum could support renewable energy projects, such as solar mini-grids for 10,000 rural communities, or fund transmission infrastructure to reduce power losses.
For context, Power Africa facilitated $63 million in renewable energy investments over 26 months—N873 billion could scale such efforts dramatically.
4. Water and Sanitation: Funds could build or upgrade water treatment plants, boreholes, and sanitation systems in underserved urban and rural areas, improving public health and reducing waterborne diseases.
5. Agricultural Infrastructure: The NSIA’s Multipurpose Industrial Platform Ltd (MIPL) in Akwa Ibom, including an ammonia and fertilizer plant, is a multi-billion-dollar project. N873 billion could fund multiple such agro-industrial hubs, boosting food security and reducing import dependence.
Analyzing The Current Infrastructure Spending In Nigeria In Relation To N873.78 Billion?
For comparison, Nigeria’s actual infrastructure allocations are much lower than the humongous money INEC is proposing to conduct the shaky 2027 general elections in Nigeria.
The 2025 Federal Budget allocated ₦4.06 trillion ($2.7 billion) for infrastructure—about 7.4% of total spending.
The National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIIMP) aims to raise infrastructure stock to 70% of GDP by 2043, requiring $100 billion annually—far above current spending levels.
Pension funds invested ₦262.57 billion in infrastructure in the first 10 months of 2025. This is below N873.78 billion being earmarked for the 2027 elections.
Without mincing words, let me aver that the N873.78 billion could transform infrastructural developmental projects in Nigeria, But the fact that this amount is proposed for elections, not infrastructural developmental projects, highlights a mismatch between public needs and government spending priorities in Nigeria, especially under the disastrous APC regime of Bola Tinubu.
Conclusion
While N873.78 billion is earmarked for elections, its scale underscores what Nigeria could achieve in infrastructure if similar resources were consistently invested. Redirecting even a fraction of election budgets toward roads, power, rail, water, and agriculture could accelerate economic growth, create jobs, and improve quality of life in Nigeria. However, transparency, accountability, and long-term planning are essential to ensure such investments yield lasting benefits.
Finally, ladies and gentlemen, let’s consider the substantial ingredients of this political seminal and fix this mess of power rotation at the center among Nigeria’s six geo-political zones for a single term of five or six years. Let’s stop wasting scarce resources in Nigeria conducting re-elections at the center and across state levels. Let’s stop wasting everybody’s time in Nigeria.
Ikenna Asomba is a political scientist and journalist. He writes from the State of Illinois, United States.
Politics
2027 BOMBSHELL: Dismantling The Myth Around Kwankwaso’s So-Called Electoral Dominance In Kano
2027 BOMBSHELL: Dismantling The Myth Around Kwankwaso’s So-Called Electoral Dominance In Kano
Politics
I am fully ready for the 2027 general elections”- ADP, presidential aspirant, Prof. Omolaja, declares
“I am fully ready for the 2027 general elections”- ADP, presidential aspirant, Prof. Omolaja, declares.
By Comrade Samson Ajibade Alabi, NLP Media Director
A presidential aspirant under the Action Democratic Party (ADP), Prof Muhammad Omolaja, has said that he is fully ready for the 2027 general elections especially the presidential contest.
Prof. Omolaja who disclosed this in an exclusive interview with pressmen in Abuja on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, said he has done his consultations with leaders of the Party, boasting that he is the next president of Nigeria by the grace of God.
He submitted that he has won the heart of the people at the grassroots across all the States and geopolitical zones including the federal capital territory (FCT); and convinced them about his clear vision and mission for Nigeria.
According to him, Nigerians are tired of the APC government and ready to vote them out in favour of his Party; the ADP!
Prof. Omolaja added that ADP is the only Party that can liberate Nigeria and rescue the citizens from the prevailing insecurity and other challenges facing the country.
The presidential aspirant said “you are asking me if I am ready for the 2027 general elections or not, I hereby inform you categorically that I am fully ready for the election; we have done what to be done, we have systematically carried Nigerians along in our preparations especially the people at the grassroots; and we have let them know that ADP is the only credible alternative Party that can liberate them from all the challenges the country is facing under the prevailing APC government. I am confident that I will get the ticket of our great Party being the leading contestant, and win the upcoming 2027 presidential election by the special grace of the Almighty God”
He therefore urged Nigerians to rally support for him and his Party (ADP) at the polls in the spirit of peace, love, unity, and patriotism in Nigeria.
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