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INEC’S NEW REFEREE AND THE POLITICS OF POWER IN NIGERIA By Prince Adeyemi Aseperi-Shonibare
The clock of Nigeria’s democracy has struck again, marking the end of one era and the beginning of another at the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). With the expiration of his second and final term, Professor Mahmood Yakubu has formally exited the stage as Nigeria’s electoral umpire—closing a defining chapter in the nation’s democratic evolution.
Appointed in November 2015 as the 14th Chairman of INEC and reappointed in 2020, Professor Yakubu’s tenure has been one of transformation. Through his decade-long stewardship, he institutionalized technology-driven transparency, strengthened administrative independence, and delivered three consecutive general elections—2015, 2019, and 2023—amid political complexity and citizen skepticism.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while accepting Yakubu’s departure, commended his steadfastness and commitment to credible elections, describing him as “a patriot who held the line for democracy.” In recognition of his service, the President conferred on him the Commander of the Order of the Niger (CON).
With his exit, the mantle of leadership now rests on Mrs. May Agbamuche-Mbu, the most senior National Commissioner, who assumes office as Acting INEC Chairman pending the appointment and Senate confirmation of a substantive successor. Her assumption of duty is not only historic but symbolic—she becomes the first woman since independence to lead Nigeria’s electoral body, even in acting capacity. Should President Tinubu confirm her, she would become the first substantive female INEC Chairman in Nigeria’s democratic history.
A lawyer and publisher by profession, Mrs. Agbamuche-Mbu has long been known for her administrative clarity and sense of justice. Called to the bar in 1987, she brings to the position a blend of legal precision and public service ethos. Her appointment aligns with President Tinubu’s progressive inclusiveness, reflecting his belief that women, when empowered, bring balance and integrity to governance.
THE LAW AND THE PROCESS
Under Section 154(1) and Paragraph 14 of the Third Schedule to the 1999 Constitution (as amended), the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria has the power to appoint the Chairman of INEC, subject to confirmation by the Senate. The Council of State, composed of sitting and former leaders including Gen. Yakubu Gowon, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, and all serving governors, provides advisory counsel.
To qualify as INEC Chairman, one must be non-partisan, a person of unquestionable integrity, and knowledgeable in law, public administration, or political science. Once appointed, the Chairman oversees twelve National Commissioners and thirty-seven Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs) across the federation—forming a multi-tiered structure that ensures checks, transparency, and accountability.
Thus, while the President appoints, he cannot control the INEC Chairman. The Commission’s independence is constitutionally guaranteed, and the diversity of its members acts as an institutional firewall against executive interference.
HOW RESULTS FLOW
Elections in Nigeria are a bottom-up process, not top-down manipulation. Votes are cast and counted at polling units, witnessed by agents of all parties, and recorded on Form EC8A, which must be signed by all party agents. These results move sequentially: from polling unit → ward collation → local government collation → state collation → national center.
The INEC Chairman merely declares results already collated, verified, and endorsed by independent returning officers—mostly university dons and NYSC corps members, recruited on temporary basis as ad-hoc staff. The introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the IReV portal, both implemented during President Muhammadu Buhari’s reforms, have rendered election rigging a logistical nightmare.
Gone are the days when ballots were snatched or results written in hotel rooms. As one election observer remarked, “Any chairman who wishes to rig an election under BVAS must be omnipresent, for every unit is now a fortress of accountability.”
THE POLITICAL EVOLUTION AND LESSONS
From the days of PDP’s dominance—when votes were conjured in millions—to today’s keenly contested elections, the progress is evident. It was under President Buhari that scandalous figures of 15–20 million votes per region gave way to realistic numbers below 9 million nationwide. The All Progressives Congress (APC), through meticulous pre-election strategy, digital monitoring, and legal assertiveness, transformed Nigeria’s political consciousness.
In 2007, when rigging was weaponized under President Obasanjo, it took forensic battles and legal discipline for APC’s progenitors to reclaim Osun, Edo, Ondo, and Ekiti States. The lesson was clear: democracy rewards those who prepare, not those who complain.
President Tinubu’s political machinery is scientific and methodical—driven by data, human intelligence, and ground mobilization. Behind every election are disciplined thinkers like Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), who oversee strategic situation rooms and escalation protocols. APC’s electoral success lies not in noise, but in organization, timing, and structure.
THE HISTORICAL LINEAGE OF INEC CHAIRMEN (1958–2025)
1. Eyo Esua (1958–1966) – Teacher and pioneer chairman of the Federal Electoral Commission.
2. Michael Ani (1976–1979) – Civil servant; conducted the 1979 elections.
3. Justice Victor Ovie-Whiskey (1980–1983) – Judge; oversaw the 1983 general elections.
4. Professor Eme Awa (1987–1989) – Political scientist; academic reformer.
5. Professor Humphrey Nwosu (1989–1993) – Political scientist; conducted the historic June 12 election.
6. Professor Okon Uya (1993) – Historian; acting chairman post-June 12 crisis.
7. Chief Sumner Karibi-Whyte (1994) – Jurist; led NECON under Abacha.
8. Professor Ephraim Akpata (1998–2000) – Lawyer; conducted 1999 transition elections.
9. Dr. Abel Guobadia (2000–2005) – Physicist; oversaw 2003 elections.
10. Professor Maurice Iwu (2005–2010) – Pharmacologist; conducted the controversial 2007 elections.
11. Professor Attahiru Jega (2010–2015) – Political scientist; introduced PVCs and card readers.
12. Professor Mahmood Yakubu (2015–2025) – Historian; introduced BVAS and IReV.
13. Mrs. May Agbamuche-Mbu (Acting, 2025–date) – Lawyer and publisher; first female INEC Chair in acting capacity.
Nearly all chairmen emerged from academia or law, underscoring the intellectual foundation of Nigeria’s electoral management.
If confirmed, Mrs. Agbamuche-Mbu would shatter a 66-year precedent, symbolizing gender progress and institutional renewal under President Tinubu’s watch.
TEN QUALITIES OF A WORTHY INEC CHAIRMAN
1. Integrity — incorruptible and impartial.
2. Courage — unwavering in crisis.
3. Administrative skill — decisive and disciplined.
4. Transparency — open to scrutiny.
5. Competence — mastery of election systems.
6. Patriotism — loyalty to the Constitution.
7. Emotional intelligence — calm under pressure.
8. Institutional vision — long-term reform mindset.
9. Digital fluency — understanding technology.
10. Moral authority — commanding respect through example.
TEN RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLITICAL PARTIES
1. Invest in structure, not slogans. Elections are won on the ground, not on social media.
2. Train and deploy agents to every polling unit; absence there is absence everywhere.
3. Collaborate among smaller parties—form regional alliances and adopt one common presidential candidate to gain national spread.
4. Share trusted agents across allied parties to reduce duplication and ensure credible oversight.
5. Focus on data analytics—voter demographics, turnout trends, and geography of influence.
6. Establish situation rooms in all states for real-time monitoring and crisis escalation.
7. Engage legal experts early to document irregularities and prepare prompt petitions.
8. Avoid over-reliance on religious or ethnic sentiment. Strategy must replace emotion.
9. Reward party loyalty through training, honorarium, and empowerment of unit-level agents.
10. Shift from noise to nuance. As President Tinubu exemplifies, “Serious politics is not about shouting the loudest, but about preparing the deepest.”
Lastly
The arrival of a new electoral referee signals another test of Nigeria’s democratic resilience. The task before Mrs. Agbamuche-Mbu is profound—to protect the sanctity of the ballot and sustain citizens’ trust.
As the philosopher Plato once said, “The penalty for refusing to participate in politics is to be governed by your inferiors.”
And in the spirit of leadership, John C. Maxwell reminds us: “A leader is one who knows the way, goes the way, and shows the way.”
For Nigeria, the way forward is clear—credible elections, institutional independence, and responsible citizenship. For the new INEC leadership, the goal remains unchanged: to ensure that the people’s voice, not manipulation, decides the future of this nation.
By Prince Adeyemi Shonibare
THE CITY, THE CROWN, AND THE CODE OF POWER
Lagos is not merely governed—it is engineered and meticulously organised. A megacity of over 25 million people, the economic heartbeat of Nigeria, and arguably the most strategic sub- national political ecosystem in Africa.
As 2027 approaches, a familiar but profound question echoes across corridors of influence—from Alausa to Marina, from the five Ibile divisions to the 57 LGs and LCDAs, down to wards and grassroots structures:
Who wears the crown?
Yet Lagos does not answer loudly. It whispers.
“Elections may be public, but power in Lagos is negotiated in private and through caucuses—long before ballots are cast.”
HISTORY: FROM PRIMROSE TO JUSTICE FORUM AND MANDATE — THE MAKING OF A POLITICAL MACHINE
Before the consolidation of today’s political order, Lagos politics was shaped by structured caucuses that defined leadership selection.
At the elite level stood the Primrose Group, a discreet but powerful screening body that assessed aspirants in the early 90s and late 1990s. It played a critical role in screening Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the Senate against political heavyweight Odu Onikosi, in what many described as a David-versus-Goliath contest. Tinubu emerged victorious.
Primrose also screened the 1998 governorship aspirants:
Bola Ahmed Tinubu
Wahab Dosunmu
Funsho Williams
The Primrose circle included:
Prince Tajudeen Olusi
Bushura Alebiosu
Mofutau Olatunji Hamzat
Alhaji Kola Oseni
Dapo Sarumi
Oyinlomo Danmole (the youngest member)
Notably, Mofutau Olatunji Hamzat, father of Kadri Obafemi Hamzat, chaired the screening process that produced Tinubu as the 1998 AD governorship candidate.
Alongside Primrose emerged two other critical blocs:
Mandate Group — the grassroots mobilisation engine
Justice Forum — the stabilising and conflict-resolution bloc
Together, they formed a strategic architecture:
Primrose — elite validation
Mandate Group — mass mobilisation
Justice Forum — internal balance and cohesion
From this convergence, Tinubu emerged—not by accident, but by design.
“He was not elected into power—he was processed into leadership.”
FROM BLOCS TO INSTITUTION: THE GAC EVOLUTION
Over time, these blocs evolved into a more formal structure—the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC).
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not create the GAC; he strengthened, harmonised, and institutionalised these legacy blocs into a central decision-making body.
“GAC is the institutional memory of Lagos politics.”
THE DOCTRINE OF SUCCESSION IN LAGOS
Lagos has developed a predictable pattern of leadership transition:
Babatunde Fashola — technocratic consolidation
Akinwunmi Ambode — performance with political rupture
Babajide Sanwo-Olu — consensus restoration
Each transition reinforces a central doctrine:
“The primary is the battlefield. The structure is the judge. Consensus is the verdict.”
And more fundamentally:
“The candidate will always come from within.”
THE INVISIBLE CABINET: GAC AS POWER SOVEREIGN
At the centre of Lagos political architecture sits the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC)—a body that does far more than advice.
Chairman:
Prince Tajudeen Olusi
Key Members Include:
Babatunde Fashola
Femi Gbajabiamila
Mudashiru Obasa
Adeyemi Ikuforiji
Senator Anthony Adefuye
Tokunbo Abiru,
Musiliu Obanikoro
Oluremi Tinubu
Sarah Sosan
Idiat Adebule
Femi Pedro
James Faleke
Adeseye Ogunlewe
Demola Seriki
Adejoke Adefulire
Kadri Obafemi Hamzat.
Other Influential Figures Within the Structure:
Henry Ajomale
Ganiyu Solomon
Rabiu Oluwa
Muraina Taiwo
Abdul-Wahab Ogundele
Sunmi Odesanya
Kaoli Olusanya.
In addition, almost all former governors, deputy governors, senators, and selected members of the House of Representatives and Primrose, mandate Group and justice forum are embedded within or aligned to the GAC structure.
“At critical moments, the GAC does not merely advise—it decides.”
CRACKS, CONFLICTS AND SYSTEM DISCIPLINE
The political history of Lagos has consistently demonstrated one principle: discipline within the system is non-negotiable.
The experience of Akinwunmi Ambode remains instructive.
“Performance alone is not enough—alignment with the structure is critical.”
In Lagos:
“No individual is bigger than the system.”
THE ASPIRANTS: POWER, PEDIGREE AND POSITIONING
The 2027 governorship race is no longer speculative—it is crystallising into a layered contest of insiders, technocrats, institutional loyalists, and strategic actors. Beneath the surface, resumes are being weighed as much as relationships; pedigree is being measured alongside perception.
Key Aspirants Include:
Kadri Obafemi Hamzat — Deputy Governor; perhaps the most deeply embedded institutional actor in the race. A technocrat with academic depth and governance continuity credentials. Notably headhunted from the United States banking sector by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, his return to public service reflects longstanding trust. His father, Mofutau Olatunji Hamzat, chaired the screening process that produced Tinubu in 1998—placing him at the intersection of legacy and continuity.
Femi Gbajabiamila — Chief of Staff to the President; former Speaker of the House of Representatives. A consummate legislator with vast national reach, elite networks, and deep understanding of federal power dynamics. Bridges Lagos structure with Abuja influence seamlessly.
Tokunbo Abiru — Senator; former Managing Director in the banking sector. Represents fiscal discipline, financial system credibility, and investor reassurance. A technocrat-politician hybrid with strong appeal to the private sector and global investors.
Tokunbo Wahab — Commissioner for Environment. A bold regulator and reformist voice, known for enforcing urban order and environmental compliance. Projects decisiveness, discipline, and administrative courage.
Mudashiru Obasa — Long-serving Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly. A master of grassroots politics with deep control of legislative structures and ward-level mobilisation. Represents structure from the ground up.
Olajide Adediran (Jandor) — Media entrepreneur and political mobiliser. Built his base through grassroots engagement and alternative political messaging. Represents outsider energy attempting to penetrate a deeply structured system.
Akinwunmi Ambode — Former governor; technocrat with a proven governance record. His tenure still resonates in infrastructure and public sector efficiency. Carries a redemption narrative, but must reconcile history with structure.
Mojisola Lasbat Meranda — Legislative figure and symbol of gender inclusion. Represents institutional evolution and the expanding role of women in Lagos power architecture.
Kayode Egbetokun (speculative) — Security chief; represents discipline, order, and enforcement capability. A potential “stability candidate” in uncertain times.
Samuel Ajose (speculative) — Former Head of Service; experienced bureaucratic strategist with deep knowledge of Lagos governance machinery. Represents administrative continuity and institutional memory.
Tayo Ayinde (speculative) — Long-serving Chief of Staff in Lagos; a quiet but powerful insider with proximity to executive decision-making and operational governance.
“Some are building alliances. Others are building acceptance. A few are building inevitability.”
THE REAL TEST: CRITERIA FOR THE APC TICKET
Beyond ambition, the Lagos APC operates a strict, unwritten checklist for candidate selection:
Proven Loyalty to the Party
A party defector stands little chance.
Product of the System
The candidate must come from within.
Alignment with the Lagos Master Plan
Continuity over disruption.
Investor Confidence
Lagos cannot risk economic instability.
Political Discipline and Temperament
Arrogance and lawlessness are disqualifiers.
Ibile Balance and Broad Acceptability
Zonal sensitivity remains critical.
Ability to Work with the Structure
Collaboration over confrontation.
Presidential Trust Factor
National confidence is key—but not absolute.
Electoral Value and Grassroots Reach
Structure must meet the street.
Importantly, this will not be a solo decision.
A former, widely respected governor and former minister is expected to play a critical role as the eyes and ears of the President in determining the most suitable candidate.
A reliable source revealed that the President held a private meeting with this former governor and minister in Lagos during the Easter break—signaling early alignment consultations ahead of 2027.
UNDERCURRENTS: SILENT MOVES AND STRATEGIC HEDGING
Quiet political movements are already unfolding beneath the surface.
There are strong rumours that:
One top aspirant is in talks with the ADC to fly their fly.
Another is exploring alignment with the Accord Party.
“Those who sense resistance within the structure begin to shop for alternatives.”
Beyond party alignments, another layer of activity is emerging.
It is widely whispered in political circles that:
Some bank accounts of PR operatives, journalists, and lobbyists have begun to quietly interface with key GAC members.
Certain aspirants are already patronising columnists to shape favourable narratives.
Billions of naira have allegedly been earmarked for lobbying, influence, and perception management.
A reliable source suggests that the real contest has already begun—not on the ballot, but in boardrooms, private residences, and media corridors and newsrooms.
Yet history cautions:
“Breaking away from the Lagos APC structure rarely guarantees victory.”
THE CALCULUS OF POWER
Five decisive variables will ultimately determine the outcome:
GAC consensus
Presidential trust (shared, not unilateral)
Party loyalty
Economic confidence
Public acceptability
Notably, the private sector remains a critical stakeholder. Lagos, as Africa’s commercial nerve centre, cannot afford political uncertainty that threatens capital flow. Investors—local and international—are watching closely.
The international community is equally attentive. Lagos is no ordinary state—it is a golden economic enclave, a city of compounding value and strategic global interest.
The Presidency too cannot be indifferent—notwithstanding that Lagos is its political base. Stability in Lagos is stability in the broader national equation.
THE CROWN AND THE SYSTEM
Lagos does not gamble with leadership,it engineers and groomed it.
No emergency leader in Lagos.
From Primrose…
To Mandate…
To Justice Forum…
To GAC…
The philosophy remains unchanged:
“Power in Lagos is not taken. It is processed.”
As 2027 approaches, one truth stands firm:
The crown will not go to the loudest.
It will not go to the most desperate.
It will not go to ambition alone.
It will go to the most acceptable aspirant.
And in Lagos:
“Acceptability is not declared,it is decided by all the variables and joint gatekeepers before the general public cast their votes.”
Politics, in the end, remains a temple of many tendencies—
the good, the bad, the pretenders, and the presumed righteous.
All contending for one crown.
More than ₦3 billion was targeted, but about ₦677 million reached the culprits, with recovery and prosecutions underway, reflecting how banks are responding to more sophisticated fraud risks.
Nigeria’s expanding digital banking sector is facing increasingly sophisticated fraud attempts, as financial institutions adapt to faster transactions and broader online services.
A recent case involving First City Monument Bank (FCMB), linked to fraudulent activity detected in December 2025, has drawn attention to how banks are responding to such incidents, with a focus on limiting exposure, recovering funds and working with law enforcement.
According to findings referenced in proceedings before the Lagos State Special Offences Court, the incident involved unauthorised transactions tied to a digital product. Early reports erroneously suggested more than ₦3 billion was lost. Subsequent clarification shows that over ₦3 billion was targeted, ₦2.4 billion was blocked and recovered, while ₦677 million got into the possession of the culprits. This outcome reflects the bank’s cyber security and monitoring capabilities, as well as improved collaboration among regulated financial institutions and with law enforcement agencies. Several suspects and beneficiaries have been apprehended, while recovery and prosecution efforts are ongoing, led by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
Proceedings at the Lagos State Special Offences Court have resulted in convictions, including that of a repeat offender, with restitution orders issued. Related matters are also being handled at the Federal High Court in Lagos, where additional suspects are being tried in connection with the scheme. This process is aimed at ensuring that bad actors are identified and permanently blacklisted from the financial system.
Authorities say recovery efforts are continuing as additional funds are traced.
Analysts note that the pace of legal action reflects closer coordination between financial institutions and enforcement agencies in addressing cyber-related financial crime.
The case comes as banks contend with more complex fraud methods, including social engineering and automated exploitation of system processes.
As digital products and platforms expand, so too does the risk associated with cyber-crime and related fraud.
“The scale of digital banking means risks are evolving alongside the systems,” said a Lagos-based financial analyst. “Institutions are now judged by how they manage these events.”
Observers say the sector is moving toward a stronger focus on response and recovery, rather than prevention alone.
This includes improving monitoring capabilities, strengthening transaction controls and enhancing collaboration with regulators and law enforcement. The FCMB case, with limited exposure relative to the amount targeted and ongoing recovery, reflects that shift.
For customers, the primary concern is the safety of their funds. In this case, there has been no indication of losses affecting customer deposits. Maintaining that level of protection remains central to sustaining trust in the financial system.
Nigeria’s financial sector continues to grow, supported by digital innovation and expanding access to banking services.
However, analysts say fraud attempts are likely to persist as systems become more complex and interconnected.
They say institutions will increasingly be judged not only on their ability to prevent incidents, but on how effectively they respond and recover when they occur.
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Ex-APC Deputy Guber flag bearer, Joshua MacIver backs Tinubu, express fears over implosion in Bayelsa APC
….congratulates new State Party Chairman, Warman Ogoriba
APC Deputy Governorship Candidate in the 2023 general elections in Bayelsa State, Great Joshua MacIver has declared his total commitment to the re-election of President Bola Tinubu come 2027, declaring that the Tinubu re-election project is non-negotiable.
Great Joshua MacIver, in his statement titled ” BAYELSA APC CONGRESSES: GOING FORWARD, A CALL TO LOOK INWARDS” and made available to newsmen in Yenagoa, warned APC leaders in the state to look Inward and take note of certain factors which may hinder or cut short our victory.
According to Great Joshua MacIver, such noticeable pitfalls include the imbalance in the united front being put up by the State Governor,Senator Douye Diri among various political blocs in the state.
In the statement issued at the weekend. Great Joshua MacIver stated that “First, before His Excellency, Senator Douye Diri, joined the APC in the state, there were clearly two political blocs that made up the party, with the approximate population ratios of the blocs standing at 95% to 5%.”
“After the entrance of His Excellency, Senator Douye Diri, ONLY THE SMALLER BLOC IS BEING CARRIED ALONG IN THE AFFAIRS OF THE PARTY, leaving the greater percentage to their fate, and this situation has the potential to build anger and dissatisfaction in our dear party.”
” The consequence of this has been the high level defection we have witnessed in the party recently and we believe more may likely follow, if we do not put our house in order.”
” If we do not pull together as a party, we may witness a situation where we will lose key stakeholders, especially after the State and National Assembly Primaries as well the Gubernatorial Primaries.”
“Finally, while it is very clear that we are the party to beat in the 2027 elections and that our loyalty to Mr. President IS NON-NEGOTIABLE, we must make haste to say that we cannot afford to create situations or loopholes in our unity which will be exploited by other political interests in the state. We cannot afford to under-rate anyone.”
“Our core interest remains the re-election of Mr. President, a project to which we have committed our all. We also pledge our total loyalty to the party as we have no alternative to the APC. However, our concern is that we must, as a party, look inwards and ensure that we do not create loopholes that can impede our common goal.”
Great Joshua MacIver, however congratulated the newly elected State Executives of the APC in Bayelsà State led by Hon. Warman Ogoriba, saying their emergence is welcomed at this critical time in our national history.
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