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139M Poor, Yet Counting “Progress”: Nigeria’s Poverty Crisis Demands More Than Policy

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139M Poor, Yet Counting “Progress”: Nigeria’s Poverty Crisis Demands More Than Policy

BY BLAISE UDUNZE 

The latest World Bank Nigeria Development Update delivers a chilling verdict, as 139 million Nigerians, over half of the nation’s population, are said to be living in poverty. The report, titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” praises Nigeria’s bold macroeconomic reforms but warns that the gains have yet to trickle down to the people.

Poverty in Nigeria is not just growing; it’s metastasizing. The World Bank’s 139 million estimate translates to roughly six in ten Nigerians living below the poverty line.

The numbers are stark. The implications are severe. And the solutions will require more than incremental policy tweaks. What the nation is witnessing is an emergency, one that demands bold leadership, systemic change, and national resolve.

Despite measurable progress on paper indicating improved revenue inflows, a more stable foreign exchange market, and the easing of inflationary pressures, the truth in the streets tells a very different story. Nigeria today sits at a troubling crossroads where official statistics clash with the bitter truth of daily survival. Each month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases inflation figures suggesting a country “stabilising.” Yet in the kitchens of Lagos, in the weary sighs of market women, and in the hollowed eyes of hungry children, a harsher reality unfolds, which is that empty pots don’t lie. Hunger, not percentages, is Nigeria’s truest inflation index.

When the new administration came in 2023, it promised sweeping reforms to “reset” the economy. Subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and fiscal discipline were its first acts, as these policies were hailed internationally for courage and long-term vision. But domestically, they unleashed an economic storm that continues to batter households. A bag of rice that sold for N35,000 two years ago now costs between N70,000 and N90,000. A crate of eggs has jumped from N1,200 to N6,200. Tomatoes, garri, and pepper, which are staples of everyday life, have drifted beyond the reach of ordinary Nigerians.

Yet, the NBS insists food inflation dropped to 21.87 percent in August 2025, down from 37.52 percent a year earlier, attributing the decline to a rebased Consumer Price Index. This statistical adjustment may appear elegant on paper, but for millions who now spend 70 to 80 percent of their income on food, such figures are not just implausible; they’re insulting. Nigeria may have changed its base year, but it hasn’t changed the harsh arithmetic of survival.

Even after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) eased its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 27.5 percent to 27 percent, which is the first modest cut in over a year, the relief has been invisible. For businesses and households, borrowing costs remain punishingly high. For small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which drive job creation, loans are still largely inaccessible. The 50-basis-point cut may have symbolic weight, signaling that inflation is moderating, but its real-world impact has been muted.

For millions of Nigerians, the inflation rate is not a percentage on a chart; it is the daily question of whether today’s wage will buy one meal or none. Even with the reported decline in inflation, the World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that over 30.6 million Nigerians will face acute hunger in 2025. The situation is compounded by the fact that more than 133 million people are already trapped in multidimensional poverty.

The government’s removal of the decades-old fuel subsidy in 2023 was meant to free up over $10 billion annually for education, healthcare, and infrastructure. International institutions like the IMF and World Bank praised it as a bold step toward fiscal discipline. Yet one year later, the results are disheartening. Fuel prices have surged by more than 514 percent, inflation hovers around 21.88 percent, and the cost of living continues to spiral. More troubling still, Nigeria’s external reserves remain stagnant at around $41.046 billion, which is roughly the same level as before the subsidy was removed.

For many Nigerians, the obvious question is, where did the money go?

What’s even more baffling is the federal government’s muted and defensive reaction to the World Bank’s sobering findings. Rather than acknowledging the scale of the crisis, official statements have downplayed the report, insisting that Nigeria is on the “right trajectory toward recovery and inclusive growth.” But inclusive growth for whom? While policymakers in Abuja celebrate macroeconomic stabilisation, hunger and despair continue to expand across the country.

If 139 million Nigerians are poor, as the World Bank and multiple local surveys affirm, how can the government claim recovery? A country cannot be said to be “on the right path” when its citizens cannot afford rice, fuel, or transport fare. The insistence on optimism in the face of deepening hardship has become not only tone-deaf but dangerous. It reflects a disconnect between governance and lived reality, between data manipulation and human experience.

The World Bank’s Country Director for Nigeria, Dr. Mathew Verghis, underscored this truth when he said, “Despite these stabilisation gains, many Nigerians are still struggling. The challenge is clear: how to translate reform gains into better living standards for all.” That translation from macroeconomic stability to microeconomic relief is the missing bridge in Nigeria’s policy landscape.

Across the country, churches, mosques, and NGOs now fill the gap left by weakened social safety nets. Community kitchens have sprung up in many cities across the country, serving meals to the poor, the homeless, and internally displaced persons. Welfare arms of faith-based organisations now feed widows, orphans, and jobless youth, providing the kind of direct social intervention that the government has yet to institutionalise.

This is the irony of Nigeria’s moment, as macroeconomic gains are celebrated abroad, but despair is deepening at home. Inflation is easing, yet hunger is rising. The MPR is lower, yet credit remains tight. Subsidies are gone, yet the fiscal space they were meant to create remains invisible. Poverty, instead of retreating, has expanded its frontiers.

If reforms continue to benefit numbers and not people, the danger is not merely economic; it is existential. A hungry population cannot sustain democracy, peace, or productivity. Protests, strikes, and growing insecurity are already evidence that social tension is simmering beneath the surface.

Nigeria must confront this crisis with urgency and empathy. Reforms must now turn toward people. The government must strengthen social protection programs, expand food security initiatives, and ensure fiscal transparency so that citizens can see how savings are spent. There must be deliberate investment in human capital like education, healthcare, and job creation to restore hope where despair is fast becoming the norm.

The World Bank’s report released in October 2025 is both a warning and a roadmap. It shows that Nigeria is not without progress, only that progress must now be measured not by GDP or reserves, but by the number of citizens lifted out of hunger and poverty. The real reform test is not in Aso Rock’s figures but in the food markets, the classrooms, and the homes of millions across the country who go to bed hungry.

Until policy gains translate into food on tables, jobs for the youth, and dignity for families, Nigeria’s poverty crisis will remain an emergency beyond policy adjustments.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]

Sahara weekly online is published by First Sahara weekly international. contact [email protected]

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SPIKING HIKE IN COOKING GAS PRICE: THE INSENSITIVITY OF THE GOVERNMENT

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SPIKING HIKE IN COOKING GAS PRICE: THE INSENSITIVITY OF THE GOVERNMENT

 

Considering the present hardship in the economy, NNPP Chieftain, Hon. Rasaq Segun Shofowora have condemns the sudden hike in the price of cooking Gas (LPG) in the economy .

He stated this in a press release sent to our office. He said the scarcity of the gas is now generate a lot of crisis and it is time for government to find lasting solution to it.

He said “You will recall that subsidy was removed from Petroleum-PMS and Diesel-AGO due to inappropriate distribution of its benefit, we expect the government to subsidise the cooking Gas, the food sector and the transportation sector so that all levels of citizens can be relieved and feel the much acclaimed palliative care from the Federal Government.

It is disheartening that instead of subsidising the basic commodities, the government has even crippled the access to them.

We recall vividly when this governement resumed power, the slogan was LET THE POOR BREATHE…but reverse is the case here.

Shofowora now begged the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to address this throat shocking issue as our mothers, fathers and aged parents are suffocating in hardship.

“We sincerely need more competition in the Oil and Gas stream. I wonder what we stand to benefit from DANGOTE PETROLEUM company if the owner enjoys discounted purchase of our National resources and still find it difficult to give back little to his fellow citizens. Is he taking the money to his grave?

“If truly Gas is a waste product and by product of refinery production, let us at least feel and breathe like a citizen sharing the same colour’

He said NNPC stations, MRS, Ardova Plc (AP), and Heyden Petroleum could have been franchised to distribute cooking Gas(LPG) at a subsidised rate so that this present hardship be relieved.

“The exerted effort the goverment is using to lay pipes accross West Africa to Francisco Countries in order to supply them Gas, same effort could be chanelled accross the Nation to ensuring steady supply of LPG at a subsidised rate.

“No matter how good a governement policy is, if it doesn’t impact the citizens, then it’s not a good policy.

“The primary objective of every Goverment is to protect her citizens, but how do you protect citizens you have skinned alive with hardship.So many citizens today can not even feed 3 square meals a day again not to talk of feeding their children appropriately.

“The earlier the better for this governement to be sensitive to people yearnings. The pain is becoming unbearable and we are sitting on a keg of gun powder.

“There is always an end to every journey and, as much as we appreciate the reformation policy of the present Government, we want to be alive in good health to witness the end result”.

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FAZAMSS Commends Governor Dauda Lawal for Paying ₦163 Million Backlog for Crescent University Students After 10 Years of Waiting

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FAZAMSS Commends Governor Dauda Lawal for Paying ₦163 Million Backlog for Crescent University Students After 10 Years of Waiting

The Federated Association of Zamfara State Students (FAZAMSS), the apex umbrella body of all Zamfara State students across tertiary institutions, wishes to express its profound appreciation to His Excellency, Dr. Dauda Lawal, Executive Governor of Zamfara State, for approving and releasing the long-awaited ₦163 million backlog payment owed to 149 Zamfara State–sponsored students at Crescent University, Abeokuta.

This historic gesture comes after a decade of uncertainty and hardship, during which affected students and their families endured immense emotional and financial struggles due to unpaid tuition fees inherited from past administrations.

The payment, which commenced in August 2025 and will be fully completed by the end of October 2025, stands as a landmark achievement in restoring the dignity of Zamfara students and renewing faith in government-sponsored education.

FAZAMSS recognizes this action as a clear demonstration of Governor Dauda Lawal’s sincerity, compassion, and unwavering commitment to rescuing the educational sector of Zamfara State from years of neglect. His administration’s proactive approach to settling inherited liabilities reflects true leadership grounded in justice and service to humanity.

We also extend our deepest appreciation to Professor Rasheedah Liman, the Executive Secretary of the Zamfara State Scholarship Board, whose discipline, transparency, and dedication have been instrumental in achieving this milestone. Her hands-on supervision and open-door policy have redefined the scholarship system, creating new confidence among students statewide.

This development has rekindled hope across the student community — not only among those studying outside the state but also those within our local institutions. We are therefore optimistic and encouraged by signals that Governor Dauda Lawal’s administration is also working toward reinstating the Local Scholarship Scheme to ensure that every Zamfara student, regardless of location, receives fair support to pursue academic excellence.

FAZAMSS, on behalf of all Zamfara State students home and abroad, pledges continued cooperation and partnership with the government to ensure transparency, accountability, and sustained progress in the management of student welfare.

Once again, we salute His Excellency Dr. Dauda Lawal for this bold and humane intervention and reaffirm our commitment to supporting every policy that uplifts the educational standard of Zamfara State.

Signed:
Muhammad Musa
National Assistant Secretary General

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Matters Arising as Nigeria’s Komolafe Leads AFRIPERF

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Matters Arising as Nigeria’s Komolafe Leads AFRIPERF

By Moses Dan

When Gbenga Komolafe, chief executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), assumed the role of interim chairman of the newly launched African Petroleum Regulators Forum (AFRIPERF), many across the continent’s oil and gas sector hailed it as a watershed moment. His elevation was not just a personal milestone but a recognition of Nigeria’s growing influence in shaping the governance of Africa’s energy future. Yet, even as praise pours in, questions linger about capacity, politics, and the sustainability of the project.

The launch and charter-signing of AFRIPERF took place on September 18, 2025, during Africa Oil Week in Accra, Ghana. Sixteen African countries participated, and eight of them — including Nigeria, Ghana, Somalia, Gambia, Madagascar, Sudan, Guinea, and Togo — formally endorsed the AFRIPERF Charter. Seven others pledged to join after domestic consultations. Komolafe was unanimously selected as interim chairman, a role that effectively positions Nigeria at the forefront of continental oil and gas regulation.

The forum’s objective is ambitious but urgent: to harmonise petroleum laws, standards, and regulatory practices across Africa. Over the decades, differences in national legislation, fiscal regimes, and licensing procedures have discouraged cross-border investments and weakened collective bargaining power. AFRIPERF is conceived to bridge those divides by creating a platform for knowledge exchange, peer review, and regional cooperation.

According to its charter, AFRIPERF will operate through an Executive Committee of national regulators, a Technical Committee of industry experts, and a rotating Secretariat to coordinate activities among member states. The framework builds on Nigeria’s earlier leadership in regulatory reform under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021.

Komolafe, who first proposed the idea of a continental regulatory network in 2023, has long argued that Africa must “own its resources with efficiency and integrity” rather than compete in isolation. The Abuja Declaration, introduced during Nigeria Oil and Gas Week in 2024, laid the philosophical foundation for AFRIPERF — emphasising transparency, environmental responsibility, and collaboration. The Accra meeting in 2025 marked the institutional birth of that vision.

The symbolism is significant. Nigeria remains one of Africa’s most experienced hydrocarbon producers, and its reform-driven regulatory commission has been widely seen as a model of post-PIA transformation. Komolafe’s emergence as the forum’s interim head therefore reinforces the view that Nigeria can export regulatory expertise in addition to crude oil.

*Nigeria’s Reformist Reputation Meets Continental Expectations*

Komolafe’s tenure at NUPRC offers clues about what to expect from his new continental assignment. Since assuming office, he has pushed reforms to digitise upstream licensing, streamline approvals, strengthen host community engagement, and curb oil theft through tighter metering systems. Under his leadership, the Commission has prioritised data transparency, community participation, and gas monetisation — themes that resonate with AFRIPERF’s founding principles.

But moving from national regulation to continental coordination is an entirely different challenge. Africa’s oil-producing nations operate under vastly different fiscal models, political pressures, and institutional capacities. Some have mature frameworks with digital monitoring systems; others still rely on paper records and manual audits. Aligning these disparities will test both Komolafe’s diplomatic skill and the credibility of the new forum.

In a statement issued on Monday, the Pan-African Regulatory Excellence Forum (PAREF), an industry think tank, commended Komolafe’s appointment as “a fitting recognition of Nigeria’s reform trajectory and the strength of his leadership.” The statement, signed by its executive director, Dr Aisha Njoroge, described the AFRIPERF chairmanship as “an opportunity to turn the rhetoric of regional cooperation into measurable results”.

According to her, “The success of AFRIPERF will depend not on the size of its membership but on the quality of its deliverables. It must demonstrate practical value by harmonising gas measurement standards, emissions regulations, and digital compliance systems. Otherwise, it risks becoming another talk shop”.

Dr Njoroge urged the interim chair to prioritise inclusivity and transparency in early decisions, ensuring that smaller or less-resourced countries are not marginalised. “Regulatory convergence should not become regulatory domination,” she added.

Beyond institutional design, several issues now dominate the agenda. The first is capacity disparity. Many African regulators lack technical manpower, laboratory infrastructure, and stable funding. Without a plan for shared resources or training exchanges, the forum could reinforce existing inequalities. The second is the question of authority. AFRIPERF’s recommendations are currently advisory, not binding, which may limit their impact unless member states voluntarily adopt harmonised frameworks.

Another pressing challenge is financing. Sustaining the forum will require predictable revenue — either through member dues, donor partnerships, or cost-sharing arrangements. Overreliance on external funding, especially from Western partners with decarbonisation agendas, could tilt priorities away from Africa’s own developmental needs.

There is also the matter of political independence. Regulators in several countries remain vulnerable to executive interference, particularly during licensing rounds and fiscal negotiations. Komolafe’s reputation for professionalism and non-partisanship at NUPRC will be critical in keeping AFRIPERF free from political capture.

*The Road Ahead for Africa’s Energy Governance*

Meanwhile, energy transition pressures loom large. Global investment in fossil fuels is tightening amid climate-related restrictions, yet Africa still relies on hydrocarbons for more than 70 per cent of government revenue in producing countries. AFRIPERF will need to navigate this paradox — promoting efficiency and environmental stewardship while defending the continent’s right to exploit its resources responsibly.

For Komolafe, the ultimate test will be turning vision into execution. The first set of deliverables expected from AFRIPERF include harmonised reporting templates for production data, a regional petroleum data repository, and shared capacity-building programmes for regulatory staff. Progress on these fronts will determine whether the forum becomes a genuine platform for transformation or fades into the background of African bureaucracy.

In his remarks at the Accra signing ceremony, Komolafe was clear about his priorities. “This is not just about creating another institution,” he said. “It is about aligning Africa’s regulatory systems with the demands of a new global energy order — one that rewards transparency, innovation, and sustainability.” He pledged that under his leadership, the forum would set measurable goals and enforce accountability through peer review.

Nigeria’s oil reforms have already strengthened its domestic regulatory identity. If Komolafe can translate that momentum into continental cooperation, AFRIPERF could become a defining institution for Africa’s late-oil era — a forum that speaks with one voice in global energy diplomacy while setting common rules for its own internal market.

But ambition alone will not suffice. The forum’s success depends on political will across capitals, not just the competence of its chairman. Africa has seen many grand alliances fade for lack of sustained follow-through. As one senior industry observer put it, “Komolafe’s leadership gives AFRIPERF credibility; now it must earn legitimacy.”

The months ahead will reveal whether Nigeria’s stewardship can turn this continental experiment into a lasting framework for energy governance. For now, the mood within the sector is one of cautious optimism — and a growing sense that, at least this time, Africa’s regulators might finally be speaking the same language.

Dan is an oil and gas expert writing from Port Harcourt.

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