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139M Poor, Yet Counting “Progress”: Nigeria’s Poverty Crisis Demands More Than Policy

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139M Poor, Yet Counting “Progress”: Nigeria’s Poverty Crisis Demands More Than Policy

BY BLAISE UDUNZE 

The latest World Bank Nigeria Development Update delivers a chilling verdict, as 139 million Nigerians, over half of the nation’s population, are said to be living in poverty. The report, titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” praises Nigeria’s bold macroeconomic reforms but warns that the gains have yet to trickle down to the people.

Poverty in Nigeria is not just growing; it’s metastasizing. The World Bank’s 139 million estimate translates to roughly six in ten Nigerians living below the poverty line.

The numbers are stark. The implications are severe. And the solutions will require more than incremental policy tweaks. What the nation is witnessing is an emergency, one that demands bold leadership, systemic change, and national resolve.

Despite measurable progress on paper indicating improved revenue inflows, a more stable foreign exchange market, and the easing of inflationary pressures, the truth in the streets tells a very different story. Nigeria today sits at a troubling crossroads where official statistics clash with the bitter truth of daily survival. Each month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases inflation figures suggesting a country “stabilising.” Yet in the kitchens of Lagos, in the weary sighs of market women, and in the hollowed eyes of hungry children, a harsher reality unfolds, which is that empty pots don’t lie. Hunger, not percentages, is Nigeria’s truest inflation index.

When the new administration came in 2023, it promised sweeping reforms to “reset” the economy. Subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and fiscal discipline were its first acts, as these policies were hailed internationally for courage and long-term vision. But domestically, they unleashed an economic storm that continues to batter households. A bag of rice that sold for N35,000 two years ago now costs between N70,000 and N90,000. A crate of eggs has jumped from N1,200 to N6,200. Tomatoes, garri, and pepper, which are staples of everyday life, have drifted beyond the reach of ordinary Nigerians.

Yet, the NBS insists food inflation dropped to 21.87 percent in August 2025, down from 37.52 percent a year earlier, attributing the decline to a rebased Consumer Price Index. This statistical adjustment may appear elegant on paper, but for millions who now spend 70 to 80 percent of their income on food, such figures are not just implausible; they’re insulting. Nigeria may have changed its base year, but it hasn’t changed the harsh arithmetic of survival.

Even after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) eased its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 27.5 percent to 27 percent, which is the first modest cut in over a year, the relief has been invisible. For businesses and households, borrowing costs remain punishingly high. For small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which drive job creation, loans are still largely inaccessible. The 50-basis-point cut may have symbolic weight, signaling that inflation is moderating, but its real-world impact has been muted.

For millions of Nigerians, the inflation rate is not a percentage on a chart; it is the daily question of whether today’s wage will buy one meal or none. Even with the reported decline in inflation, the World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that over 30.6 million Nigerians will face acute hunger in 2025. The situation is compounded by the fact that more than 133 million people are already trapped in multidimensional poverty.

The government’s removal of the decades-old fuel subsidy in 2023 was meant to free up over $10 billion annually for education, healthcare, and infrastructure. International institutions like the IMF and World Bank praised it as a bold step toward fiscal discipline. Yet one year later, the results are disheartening. Fuel prices have surged by more than 514 percent, inflation hovers around 21.88 percent, and the cost of living continues to spiral. More troubling still, Nigeria’s external reserves remain stagnant at around $41.046 billion, which is roughly the same level as before the subsidy was removed.

For many Nigerians, the obvious question is, where did the money go?

What’s even more baffling is the federal government’s muted and defensive reaction to the World Bank’s sobering findings. Rather than acknowledging the scale of the crisis, official statements have downplayed the report, insisting that Nigeria is on the “right trajectory toward recovery and inclusive growth.” But inclusive growth for whom? While policymakers in Abuja celebrate macroeconomic stabilisation, hunger and despair continue to expand across the country.

If 139 million Nigerians are poor, as the World Bank and multiple local surveys affirm, how can the government claim recovery? A country cannot be said to be “on the right path” when its citizens cannot afford rice, fuel, or transport fare. The insistence on optimism in the face of deepening hardship has become not only tone-deaf but dangerous. It reflects a disconnect between governance and lived reality, between data manipulation and human experience.

The World Bank’s Country Director for Nigeria, Dr. Mathew Verghis, underscored this truth when he said, “Despite these stabilisation gains, many Nigerians are still struggling. The challenge is clear: how to translate reform gains into better living standards for all.” That translation from macroeconomic stability to microeconomic relief is the missing bridge in Nigeria’s policy landscape.

Across the country, churches, mosques, and NGOs now fill the gap left by weakened social safety nets. Community kitchens have sprung up in many cities across the country, serving meals to the poor, the homeless, and internally displaced persons. Welfare arms of faith-based organisations now feed widows, orphans, and jobless youth, providing the kind of direct social intervention that the government has yet to institutionalise.

This is the irony of Nigeria’s moment, as macroeconomic gains are celebrated abroad, but despair is deepening at home. Inflation is easing, yet hunger is rising. The MPR is lower, yet credit remains tight. Subsidies are gone, yet the fiscal space they were meant to create remains invisible. Poverty, instead of retreating, has expanded its frontiers.

If reforms continue to benefit numbers and not people, the danger is not merely economic; it is existential. A hungry population cannot sustain democracy, peace, or productivity. Protests, strikes, and growing insecurity are already evidence that social tension is simmering beneath the surface.

Nigeria must confront this crisis with urgency and empathy. Reforms must now turn toward people. The government must strengthen social protection programs, expand food security initiatives, and ensure fiscal transparency so that citizens can see how savings are spent. There must be deliberate investment in human capital like education, healthcare, and job creation to restore hope where despair is fast becoming the norm.

The World Bank’s report released in October 2025 is both a warning and a roadmap. It shows that Nigeria is not without progress, only that progress must now be measured not by GDP or reserves, but by the number of citizens lifted out of hunger and poverty. The real reform test is not in Aso Rock’s figures but in the food markets, the classrooms, and the homes of millions across the country who go to bed hungry.

Until policy gains translate into food on tables, jobs for the youth, and dignity for families, Nigeria’s poverty crisis will remain an emergency beyond policy adjustments.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]

Education

NIGERIA’S EDUCATION STRIDES, GLOBAL ACKNOWLEDGMENT: When Evidence Travels from Jigawa

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Governing Through Hardship: How Tinubu’s Policies Targets the Poor. By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by SaharaWeeklyNG.com 

NIGERIA’S EDUCATION STRIDES, GLOBAL ACKNOWLEDGMENT: When Evidence Travels from Jigawa

…as President Tinubu set to commission Africa’s largest schools complex in Lagos

By O’tega Ogra

 

There is a quiet shift happening in Nigeria’s education system. You will not find it in speeches neither will you find it in long policy documents. But if you look closely, you will see it in something far more difficult to dismiss. Evidence.

Last week in San Francisco, at the Comparative and International Education Society (CIES) conference, data from classrooms in Jigawa State was presented before a global audience. Not projections. Not estimates. A record of what is happening inside a public system in Nigeria. 

That distinction matters. For years, much of what the world has understood about education in countries like ours has been assembled from a distance. National averages. Modelled estimates and reports written long after the fact. What was presented this time came from within. Attendance tracked daily. Teachers reassigned based on need. Classrooms observed as they function. All under a digitalised ecosystem.

In Jigawa, under the JigawaUNITE foundational learning digital programme, the numbers tell a simple story. Within roughly 150 days of implementation which commenced at the end of 2024, 95 previously understaffed schools were fully staffed. Pupil teacher ratio moved from 114:1 to 70:1. Daily attendance rose from 39 per cent to 77 per cent. This remarkable improvement was not achieved by expanding the workforce. It came from reorganising what already existed under a digital umbrella.

There is something instructive in that. Nigeria has never lacked policy. What we have often lacked is the discipline of execution. The ability to take what already exists and make it work as intended. That is where the real shift is beginning to show.

But it would be too convenient to reduce this to one programme.

At the federal level, the direction has also been adjusting. The Minister of Education, Dr. Maruf Tunji Alausa, has placed measurable outcomes, foundational learning, and teacher quality back at the centre of policy. UBEC, the Federal Government’s Universal Basic Education body, continues to drive national interventions around school improvement and teacher development, even as it insists that reform must remain system-led and not fragmented.

The First Lady’s education interventions, through the Renewed Hope Initiative, have reinforced education as a national priority, particularly around access, learning materials, and inclusion. These are different levers, but they are part of the same ecosystem.

And then there is the fiscal reality.

Recent reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu have increased allocations to subnational governments, creating more room for states to act. In a federation like Nigeria, that matters. Because education is not delivered from Abuja. It is delivered in states. In schools. In classrooms.

What Jigawa has done is to use that room and the Executive Governor of the state, the State Universal Basic Education Board, and their partners on the JigawaUNITE project, New Globe, must be given kudos.

However, Jigawa is not alone in this journey.

In Kwara, efforts to align teaching with actual learning levels are beginning to correct a structural mismatch in classrooms. In Lagos and Edo, structured pedagogy and closer monitoring are improving consistency in teaching. Across the entire ecosystem, state governments, federal institutions like UBEC, and delivery partners like NewGlobe are pushing at the same question from different angles.

How do children actually learn better?

In a prior reflection, Ifeyinwa Ugochukwu, VP at NewGlobe, captured the urgency clearly. With the right tools, training, and use of data, foundational learning outcomes can improve at scale. The real risk, she noted, is delay, allowing learning gaps to become permanent.

That warning should not be ignored because the context remains difficult. Nigeria still carries one of the largest out of school populations in the world. Learning gaps remain. Progress in one state does not resolve a national challenge, but it does something else.

It proves that movement is possible.

What was presented in Washington did not claim success. It demonstrated function. It showed that a Nigerian sub-national can generate evidence that holds up in a global room. That reform does not always require something new. Sometimes it requires using what already exists more honestly and more efficiently.

The real question now is whether this remains an exception.

Or whether it becomes a pattern.

Because reform at scale is never built on isolated wins. It is built on systems that can reproduce them.

And perhaps that is why the timing matters.

This week, another subnational, Lagos State, is expected to commission the Tolu Schools Complex in Ajegunle, a sprawling 36-school integrated facility spread across 11.7 hectares, designed to serve over 20,000 students, and described as the largest school community in Africa. 

There is a connection here that should not be missed.

On one hand, a classroom system in Jigawa is learning how to organise itself better. On the other, a state like Lagos is building the physical scale required to carry thousands of learners at once.

One is structure. The other is capacity.

Real progress sits where both meet because education reform is not only about what we build, it is about how well what we build actually works.

For once, the data was not explaining Nigeria from the outside.

It was coming from within.

And it carried weight.

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BREAKING: Onireti Appointed Director-General of City Boy Movement in Oyo State

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*BREAKING: Onireti Appointed Director-General of City Boy Movement in Oyo State*

 

The political atmosphere in Oyo State recorded a major development on Monday with the appointment of Hon. Olufemi Onireti as the new Director-General of the City Boy Movement, the grassroots mobilisation structure championing support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu across the country.

 

The appointment was announced by the movement’s Director-General, Mr Francis Shoga, in Abuja on Tuesday during the handover of the appointment letter to Onireti.

 

This is coming days after his resignation from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), where he had been an active figure and former House of Representatives candidate.

 

His new role is expected to reposition the group’s activities and strengthen its outreach ahead of future political engagements in Oyo State.

 

According to the movement’s leadership, Onireti was chosen based on his “wide political network, proven organisational capacity and strong presence among the youth and grassroots stakeholders.”

 

Speaking with newsmen, Onireti expressed gratitude for the confidence reposed in him and pledged to deploy his experience to advance the objectives of the City Boy Movement across the state.

 

Onireti said his decision to join the ruling party was a personal conviction shaped by ongoing political realignments and his commitment to supporting a broader progressive coalition at both state and national levels.

 

Hon. Onireti added that his appointment followed extensive consultations and harmonisation with his followers.

 

He assured supporters that his leadership would prioritise inclusiveness, strategic mobilisation and effective communication.

 

“I am committed to galvanising our structures and ensuring that Oyo State remains a stronghold for the ideals we stand for,” he said.

 

Political observers note that his appointment may shift the dynamics of political mobilisation in Oyo State, given his influence and recent political moves.

 

The City Boy Movement is expected to unveil its new operational roadmap in the coming days.

 

The movement, a prominent youth-driven support platform advancing President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda, positions Onireti to lead its grassroots mobilisation efforts in Oyo as part of its national structure ahead of the 2027 elections.

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Ariko Church Attack: IGP Disu Deploys DIG As Police Rescue Seven Kidnap Victims

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Ariko Church Attack: IGP Disu Deploys DIG As Police Rescue Seven Kidnap Victims

 

The Inspector-General of Police, Olatunji Rilwan Disu, has ordered the immediate deployment of the Deputy Inspector-General of Police in charge of Operations, Shehu Umar Nadada, to Kaduna State following a deadly bandit attack on Ariko Village near Gurara Dam.

 

The assault, which occurred on April 5, 2026, targeted worshippers at ECWA and Catholic churches in the community, with gunmen opening fire indiscriminately. Five persons were confirmed dead, while no fewer than fourteen others were abducted during the coordinated হাম.

In a swift operational response, the police high command mandated a high-level intervention, tasking DIG Nadada with leading on-the-ground coordination of security efforts aimed at stabilising the area and facilitating the safe recovery of the victims.

Security operations conducted in collaboration with the Nigerian Army and the Department of State Services (DSS) have already yielded results, with seven of the abducted persons rescued. The victims were evacuated to Katari Hospital for urgent medical attention and are reported to be in stable condition, awaiting reunification with their families.

Police authorities disclosed that tactical operations remain ongoing to secure the release of the remaining captives and apprehend those responsible for the ആക്രമം, underscoring a renewed push to degrade criminal networks operating within the axis.

Reaffirming the Force’s commitment to public safety, the IGP called on residents to remain vigilant and support ongoing operations by providing credible and actionable intelligence to security agencies.

Ariko Church Attack: IGP Disu Deploys DIG As Police Rescue Seven Kidnap Victims

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