society
A Tentative Recovery — OR WINDOW DRESSING? Nigeria’s GDP Grows 3.98% in Q3 2025: What the Number Hides and What Must Be Done
A Tentative Recovery — OR WINDOW DRESSING?
Nigeria’s GDP Grows 3.98% in Q3 2025: What the Number Hides and What Must Be Done.
By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by saharaweeklyng.com
“Separating Statistical Progress from Everyday Reality in Africa’s Most Complex Economy.”
Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98% year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). At first glance the figure looks like PROGRESS and it is PROGRESS of a kind. But beneath the tidy percentage lie a tangle of uneven sectoral performance, fragile price stability, fiscal strain and a persistent failure to translate macroeconomic numbers into better daily lives for ordinary Nigerians. This piece pulls apart the headline, explains what drove the expansion, flags the risks and offers an unvarnished judgment about what policymakers must do next.
What drove the 3.98% growth? The NBS report shows that the expansion in Q3 was BROAD-BASED but led by the non-oil economy (notably services and agriculture) even as the oil sector staged a modest recovery. Services accounted for the largest share of output and recorded one of the stronger growth rates, while agriculture returned to positive territory after weaker stretches in 2024. In aggregate, the non-oil sector contributed roughly 96% of GDP, underscoring how far Nigeria’s output composition has shifted away from hydrocarbons. Those structural shifts matter because they change the policy levers that actually move the economy.
The oil sector did record positive growth (helped by higher crude production) but its share of aggregate GDP remains small, a signal that oil is less of a direct growth engine than it used to be. In other words: while higher production matters for foreign exchange and government revenues, the day-to-day purchasing power and job creation that lift millions of households are overwhelmingly determined by non-oil activity.
Why the number is both WELCOME and WORRYING.
A WELCOME sign: sustained quarterly growth after a weak patch signals momentum. The World Bank has itself noted “POSITIVE ECONOMIC MOMENTUM” in 2025 and cautioned that reforms are beginning to yield results, while urging that gains be translated into tangible welfare improvements for the poor. As Mathew Verghis, World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, put it: “The Nigerian government has taken bold steps to stabilize the economy, and these efforts are beginning to yield results.” But the World Bank’s central caveat is crucial: macro stabilization is necessary but not sufficient; the poor still face high food inflation and widespread vulnerability.
The WORRYING side is immediate and stark. Inflation remains painfully high (double-digit and food inflation especially elevated) and borrowing costs are still punitive despite modest easing from earlier peaks to conditions that throttle business expansion and household welfare. Financial market and monetary policy improvements will not help families who spend the bulk of their income on food if the price of the basic food basket keeps rising. In short: GROWTH WITHOUT DISINFLATION AND REDISTRIBUTION IS A HOLLOW VICTORY. Sahara and other analysts reported inflation pressures and pointed to a still-high policy rate as part of the context for Q3 figures.
Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso has repeatedly insisted that credible, predictable policy will attract investment: “Stability is at the core of advancing Nigeria’s policy framework through inflation targeting. You do not need to beg anyone to invest.” That prescription is true, but only if the rest of the policy apparatus (fiscal discipline, supply-side fixes for food and energy, social protection) follows through. Stability without structural reform will not deliver jobs or lower the cost of living.
The fiscal and external backdrop. Growth does not occur in isolation. The Federal Government’s fiscal plans for 2026 (including a draft budget and medium-term fiscal framework) point to continued pressure on public finances, a SIZEABLE DEFICIT and RISING DEBT SERVICE OBLIGATIONS. The cabinet’s fiscal framework projects large budgetary needs, indicting the reality that public investment will be constrained unless revenue mobilization improves. In short: the state needs fiscal headroom to invest in the power, transport and logistics that convert growth into livable livelihoods.
On the external side, stronger oil production and higher non-oil exports have improved foreign exchange reserves and the external position compared with the crisis years. Those improvements matter: reserves and a more functional FX market reduce panic, allow imports of critical inputs and lower premium pressures. Yet, the gains remain delicate and reversible if confidence weakens or global commodity prices swing.
Where the gains must land: three urgent priorities
Tame inflation, especially food inflation. The World Bank and Nigerian policymakers agree: the single biggest tax on the poor is food price inflation. Targeted supply-side fixes (agricultural inputs, storage, logistics and trade measures) combined with a credible monetary framework, are indispensable. Without this, headline GDP growth will keep feeling distant from household reality.
Restore fiscal space and spend smarter. The 2026 fiscal framework highlights a difficult trade-off: service large debt obligations or invest in growth-enhancing infrastructure. Nigeria must tighten revenue collection, eliminate leakages, and prioritize public spending that directly boosts productivity (power, roads, ports, irrigation). Otherwise, growth will be cyclical and shallow.
Translate macro stability into real investment and jobs. As CBN Governor Cardoso has argued, predictable, transparent policy attracts investors. But to convert investment into jobs, governments must fix regulatory uncertainty, unblock transport bottlenecks, and support SMEs with affordable credit and market access. A solid monetary stance alone will not produce mass employment.
A candid verdict. A 3.98% growth rate is not a tragedy, it is evidence the economy is moving in the right direction after years of dislocations. But it is also a warning: growth that does not reduce costs for ordinary citizens, create stable jobs, and expand social protection is a fragile and politically toxic victory. The leadership in Abuja must stop treating statistics as an end in themselves and embrace a people-centered economic strategy that combines stabilization with direct interventions for food security, job creation and fiscal transparency.
If policymakers act with urgency (tightening the link between macro stability and social outcomes, spending smartly, and fixing supply bottlenecks) Nigeria can convert this modest momentum into sustained, inclusive growth. If they do not, the headline percentages will become yet another number that comforts elites while ordinary Nigerians continue to pay the price.
My Final note. Numbers matter and the NBS’s Q3 figure is worth acknowledging. But the measure of success is whether mothers can afford food, whether small businesses can borrow without choking on interest, and whether young people can find dignified work. Until those metrics improve, a 3.98% GDP print remains a TENTATIVE step and NOT a TRIUMPH.
society
Leading Islamic hip-hop and Afro Pop singer, Hyb Addis drops new single ‘MA-LO-BE’
Leading Islamic hip-hop and Afro Pop singer, Hyb Addis drops new single ‘MA-LO-BE’
Leading Islamic hip-hop and rap artist
Hyb Addis, popularly known as Omo Ilorin Original, is back with a brand-new visual titled MALOBE — a powerful blend of culture, spirituality, and street inspiration.
Signed under Jummiey Entertainment International, Hyb Addis continues to stand out with his exceptional musical style, mixing Arabic, English, and Yoruba lyrics to deliver thought-provoking messages and energetic rhythms.
With years of consistency in the music industry, Addis has earned multiple local and international awards and continues to push boundaries. His latest album features three international artists from the USA, India, and Indonesia, expanding his global footprint.
MALOBE is another masterpiece that showcases Hyb Addis’s talent, originality, and connection to his roots — infused with Quranic references, street wisdom, and Afro-pop vibes.
Enjoy the new single via this linkhttps://youtu.be/IXg0p3tvMOs?feature=shared
Don’t forget to LIKE, COMMENT & SUBSCRIBE for more amazing music from Hyb Addis. Turn on notifications so you don’t miss upcoming releases — more hits are on the way!
Connect With Hyb Addis
Facebook: Hyb Addis
Instagram: @hyb_addis
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society
Africa’s Energy Icon: Dr Olakunle Williams Turns 38, Bags Honorary Doctorate Award as His Legacies Resounds Across Africa
Africa’s Energy Icon: Dr Olakunle Williams Turns 38, Bags Honorary Doctorate Award as His Legacies Resounds Across Africa
By Chinedu Nsofor
Today the African energy community joins family, friends, partners and admirers around the world to celebrate a man whose life has become a testimony of brilliance purpose and visionary leadership. Dr Olakunle Williams (President and Chief Executive Officer of Tetracore Energy Group) and one of Africas most influential voices in the natural gas and power industry as he marks his thirty eighth birthday today.
His birthday this year carries a deeper glow, a richer meaning and a wider celebration. Only a few days ago on the 3rd of December Lead City University Ibadan conferred on him the Doctor of Business Administration in recognition of his outstanding achievements and transformative contributions to the energy sector. The timing could not be more symbolic. It is as if the universe chose to honour a life of excellence just before another year of impact began. His new doctorate is not only an academic distinction. It is a mirror reflecting the depth of his work across Africa.
Dr Williams’s journey is one defined by clarity of purpose and an uncommon drive. With over sixteen years of experience across the natural gas and power value chain he has contributed to some of the most impactful energy developments in the region. His story began in the world of finance and advisory where he distinguished himself at Akintola Williams Deloitte as a Senior Tax Consultant. His brilliance earned him the Outstanding Tax Consultant award in the twenty eleven twenty twelve financial year. He advised major global companies including Agip Energy and Natural Resources Heineken International and Siemens Nigeria shaping tax strategies mergers acquisitions and investment structuring.
His transition into the national energy space marked the arrival of a new force. At the Nigerian National Petroleum Company he was instrumental in the establishment of the Nigerian Gas Marketing Company and in a span of only two years drove gas marketing initiatives that delivered more than twenty five million standard cubic feet of gas daily. His work in expanding gas supply into the West African region demonstrated his continental foresight and ability to convert vision into value.
As an alumnus of Lead City University where he graduated with First Class Honours in Law and as a holder of an international Master of Business Administration he embodies both academic excellence and corporate mastery. He is also a Fellow of the Institute of Management Consultants a Certified Management Consultant a Project Management Professional and a member of international professional bodies including the International Bar Association the Chartered Institute of Taxation and the Institute of Arbitrators.
His greatest imprint however lives in the legacy he is building through Tetracore Energy Group. Under his leadership Tetracore has become a continental powerhouse and one of the most important players in Africa’s gas future. Tetracore today maintains the largest gas trading portfolio in Nigeria with over ninety million standard cubic feet delivered daily. His projects power more than three hundred megawatts of industrial generation across the country. His forty million cubic feet City Gate in Edo State energizes more than eighteen industries. His compressed gas facility in Ogun State continues to strengthen the southwest industrial corridor. His development of a ten million cubic feet LNG plant and a one hundred megawatt power project demonstrates his unwavering commitment to energy security.
Beyond Nigeria his vision travels across borders. With a regional shippers license he is expanding gas into Ghana where Tetracore is developing the first compressed gas mother station in Tema. In Central Africa he has advanced liquefied gas infrastructure for power generation and industrial manufacturing. These are not ordinary achievements. They are the works of a man who sees Africa not as it is but as it can become.
His numerous recognitions reflect this greatness. He has been celebrated as the Nigeria Domestic Gas Ambassador. He has been named among the twenty five energy personalities to watch in Africa. He has received the Innovative Gas Company award the Fin Forbes Award of Excellence the Vanguard Energy Icon award the Nigeria Energy Champion award and a feature among the Choiseul one hundred Africa which honours the continent’s most influential young leaders. He was recently named Business Icon of the Year and decorated with the Professional Doctorate and Corporate Leadership Excellence Award in Ghana.
As he turns thirty eight today we celebrate not just the years he has lived but the lives he has touched, the industries he has shaped and the future he continues to power. May this new year open even greater doors. May his light shine brighter than every city his work has illuminated. May favour surround him like a shield and may the wisdom that guides him grow richer and deeper.
Happy birthday Dr Olakunle Williams(President/CEO Tetracore Energy Group). Africa celebrates you. The energy world honours you. The future waits for your next chapter.
You are Africa’s energy champion today and always.
society
From Boom to Burden: Nigeria’s Public Debt Skyrockets to ₦152.39 Trillion; The Fiscal Timebomb No One Can Afford to Ignore
From Boom to Burden: Nigeria’s Public Debt Skyrockets to ₦152.39 Trillion; The Fiscal Timebomb No One Can Afford to Ignore.
By George Omagbemi Sylvester, published on saharaweeklyng.com
“A deep dive into the National Bureau of Statistics’ Q2 2025 debt report, the drivers of the surge, its human and macroeconomic costs and urgent remedies the country must adopt.”
Nigeria’s public debt stock climbed to ₦152.39 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, a number so large it should break the complacency of every policymaker, investor and citizen. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed the figure in its Nigerian Domestic and Foreign Debt Report for Q2 2025, noting that the total represents an increase from ₦149.38 trillion in Q1 2025 and an eye-watering year-on-year rise of about ₦18.09 trillion from Q2 2024.
This is not arithmetic on a spreadsheet. It is a health check on the nation’s financial body and the diagnosis is troubling. The report shows that external debt stood at ₦71.84 trillion (about US$46.98 billion) while domestic debt reached ₦80.55 trillion (about US$52.67 billion), meaning domestic borrowing now accounts for just over half of the stock and is driving much of the recent rise.
What the numbers mean and why they are dangerous. A 2.01% quarter-on-quarter rise to ₦152.39 trillion may look modest in percentage terms, but the absolute jump and its composition carry several threats:
Debt service crowding-out. Debt servicing already consumes a growing share of government revenues. In the first quarter of 2025, public debt servicing ran into the trillions of naira monthly, a drain on funds that would otherwise finance hospitals, schools, roads and social safety nets. When more revenue goes to pay creditors, less remains for capital expenditure that lifts living standards.
Exchange rate and currency risk. A large external component exposes Nigeria to exchange rate volatility. When the naira weakens, the naira-equivalent cost of external obligations rises, inflating the debt stock in naira terms even when dollar liabilities are unchanged. This mechanism has pushed Nigeria’s debt figures higher in recent quarters.
Shift toward domestic borrowing. The tilt to domestic markets can temporarily shield Nigeria from forex swings but it is not benign: domestic borrowing competes with the private sector for savings, can raise interest rates and risks “crowding out” private investment. The NBS data show domestic debt now represents roughly 52.9% of the total stock which is a structural shift with consequences for growth.
Fiscal sustainability and bond market appetite. Investors will demand higher yields if they sense fiscal slippage or that borrowing is financing consumption rather than productive investment. Higher yields increase future debt service costs and can precipitate a vicious cycle of borrowing and servicing. International lenders and rating agencies watch these trends closely.
Voices of alarm; experts weigh in. This is not just a numbers story. Economists and fiscal watchdogs have repeatedly warned that Nigeria’s rising debt service burden risks displacing essential public investment. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, has stressed that the country’s growing debt-service obligations are already outpacing capital expenditure and that if left unchecked the trend will “CROWD OUT ESSENTIAL GOVERNMENT FUNCTIONS.” His warning is a sober reminder that borrowing without a credible plan for revenue growth and efficiency is a recipe for stagnation.
From the policy side, Finance Minister Olawale (Wale) Edun has defended ongoing reforms while acknowledging the fiscal pressures they aim to correct; his public commentary has emphasized the need to balance reform momentum with debt sustainability. But words must be matched with concrete measures and revenue reform, expenditure prioritization and transparent use of loan proceeds.
BudgIT and other civil-society monitors have also cautioned that fresh borrowing plans risk breaching prudential thresholds unless accompanied by aggressive fiscal consolidation and transparency. The public deserves clear accounting of what loans are for and how they translate into jobs, services and growth.
Who owes what? – sub-national contributions and the Lagos effect. The NBS report flagged that several sub-national governments (states and local councils) account for a material portion of liabilities. Lagos State, Africa’s commercial powerhouse, tops the list of state debtors, reflecting a mix of infrastructure projects and financing strategies used by its government. This raises questions about the sustainability of state borrowing and coordination with federal debt strategy.
State borrowing is not inherently wrong: cities and states need capital for roads, water and urban services. But the danger comes when short-term revenue mismatches finance long-term projects, or when guarantees and contingent liabilities are not transparently recorded in public accounts, risks that compound national exposure.
The human cost; AUSTERITY by another name. Debt is not an abstract macro variable; it is translated into policy choices that affect ordinary Nigerians. When debt servicing eats into the budget, governments face stark options: cut capital projects, raise taxes, reduce subsidies or borrow more. Each option hits households. Higher taxes and reduced services fall hardest on the poor; heavier borrowing sows the seeds of future austerity. The recent rounds of subsidy reform and tariff adjustments illustrate how fiscal tightening quickly becomes a matter of daily survival for vulnerable families.
Practical policy prescriptions; what must happen now. Nigeria needs a coherent, aggressive and transparent strategy to arrest unsustainable debt dynamics. Key policy measures should include:
Fiscal consolidation anchored on revenue growth, not just austerity. Close tax gaps, widen the tax base, modernize collection and rationalize exemptions. Without credible revenue mobilization, debt reduction will be cosmetic.
Prioritize productive borrowing. New loans must be costed against expected economic returns. Borrow for infrastructure that catalyzes private investment and jobs; avoid borrowing to fund recurrent consumption.
Strengthen debt transparency and sub-national coordination. Publish timely, disaggregated debt data (federal, state, guaranteed, contingent liabilities) and enforce borrowing rules for states. Citizens must be able to see what is owed and for what purpose.
Protect capital expenditure. Ring-fence a minimum share of spending for capital projects; prioritize those with measurable social returns. Debt that finances growth pays for itself; debt that finances consumption destroys fiscal space.
Engage creditors for smarter terms. Where appropriate, renegotiate maturities, explore concessional windows, and pursue blended finance with private partners to reduce direct government exposure.
A closing warning and a call to action. Nigeria’s rise to ₦152.39 trillion in public debt is not destiny; it is a consequence of choices. The challenge for leaders is to choose policies that restore fiscal balance, revive growth and protect the poorest. As Muda Yusuf cautioned, the country cannot allow debt servicing to outpace capital spending or to become the tail that wags the dog.
If policymakers fail to act decisively, the result will be slow growth, higher costs of living and a future generation saddled with the obligation to repay a debt that did not translate into durable prosperity. The NBS report is a clarion call and EVERY RESPONSIBLE NIGERIAN, from the PRESIDENCY to the STREET, must treat it as such.
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