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Dangote, Monopoly Power, and Political Economy of Failure

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*Dangote, Monopoly Power, and Political Economy of Failure*

BY BLAISE UDUNZE

 

 

Nigeria’s refining crisis is one of the country’s most enduring economic contradictions. Africa’s largest crude oil producer, strategically located on the Atlantic coast and home to over 200 million people, has for decades depended on imported refined petroleum products. This illogicality has drained foreign exchange, weakened the naira, distorted investment incentives, and hollowed out state institutions. Instead of catalysing industrialisation, Nigeria’s oil wealth became a mechanism for capital flight, rent-seeking, and institutional decay.

 

 

With the challenges surrounding the refining of crude oil, the establishment of Dangote Refinery signifies an important historic moment. The refinery promises to reduce fuel imports to a bare minimum, sustain foreign exchange growth, ensure there is constant fuel domestically, and strategically position Nigeria as a regional exporter of refined oil products if functioned at full capacity. Dangote Refinery symbolises what private capital, technology, and ambition can achieve in Africa following years of fuel queues, subsidy scandals, and global embarrassment.

 

 

Nigerians must have a rethink in the cause of celebration. Nigeria’s refining problem is not simply about capacity; it is about systems. Without addressing the policy failures and institutional weaknesses that made Dangote an exception rather than the rule, the country risks replacing one failure with another, this time cloaked in private-sector success.

 

 

For a fact, Nigeria desperately needs the emergence of Dangote refinery, and its success is in the national interest. Hence, this is not an argument against the Dangote Refinery. But history warns that structural failures are not solved by scale alone. Over the year, situations have shown that without competition and strong institutions, concentrated market power, whether public or private, can undermine price stability, energy security, and consumer welfare.

 

 

 

The Long Silence of Refinery Investments

 

Perhaps the most troubling question in Nigeria’s oil history is why none of the global oil majors like Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, or Agip has built a major refinery in Nigeria for over four decades. These companies operated profitably in Nigeria, extracted their crude, and sold refined products back to the country, yet never committed capital to domestic refining.

 

Over the period, it has been shown that policy incoherence has been the cause, not a matter of technical incapacity, such as price controls, resistant licensing processes, subsidy arrears, frequent regulatory changes, and political interference, which made refining an unattractive investment. Importation, by contrast, offered quick returns, lower political risk, and guaranteed margins, often backed by government subsidies.

 

 

Nigeria carelessly designed a system that rather rewarded importers and punished refiners. Dangote did not succeed because the system improved; he succeeded despite it. His refinery exists largely because of the concessions from the government, exceptional financial capacity, political access, and a willingness to absorb risks that institutions should ordinarily mitigate. This raises a deeper concern; when institutions fail, progress becomes dependent on extraordinary individuals rather than predictable systems.

 

 

The Tragedy of NNPC Refineries

 

If private investors stayed away, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries should have filled the gap. Instead, the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries became monuments to mismanagement. Records have shown that between 2010 and 2025, Nigeria reportedly wasted between $18 billion and $25 billion, over N11 trillion, just for Turn Around Maintenance and rehabilitation. Kaduna Refinery alone is estimated to have consumed over N2.2 trillion in a decade.

 

Despite these expenditures, output remained negligible. This was not merely a technical failure but a governance one. Contracts were poorly monitored, accountability was absent, and consequences were nonexistent. In functional systems, such outcomes trigger investigations, sanctions, and reforms. In Nigeria, the cycle simply repeated itself, eroding public trust and deepening dependence on imports.

 

 

 

Where Is BUA?

 

Dangote is not the only Nigerian conglomerate to announce refinery ambitions. In 2020, BUA Group unveiled plans for a 200,000-barrels-per-day refinery. Years later, progress remains unclear, timelines have shifted, and execution appears stalled.

 

This pattern is revealing. When multiple large investors struggle to translate plans into reality, the issue is not ambition but environment. Refinery projects in Nigeria appear viable only at a massive scale and with extraordinary political leverage. Smaller or mid-sized players are effectively crowded out, not by market forces, but by systemic dysfunction.

 

 

 

Policy Failure and the Singapore Comparison

 

Nigeria often aspires to emulate Singapore’s refining and petrochemical success. The comparison is instructive. Singapore has no crude oil, yet built one of the world’s most sophisticated refining hubs through consistent policy, investor protection, infrastructure planning, and regulatory certainty.

 

 

Nigeria chose a different path: price controls, subsidies, weak contract enforcement, and politically motivated policy reversals. Refineries became tools of patronage rather than productivity. Capital exited, infrastructure decayed, and import dependence deepened. The outcome was predictable.

 

 

 

The Cost of Import Dependence

 

For years, Nigeria spent billions of dollars annually importing petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel. This placed constant pressure on foreign reserves and the naira. Petrol subsidies alone were estimated at N4-N6 trillion per year, often exceeding national spending on health, education, or infrastructure.

 

 

Even after subsidy removal, legacy costs remain: distorted consumption patterns, weakened public finances, and entrenched interests built around importation. These interests did not disappear quietly.

 

 

 

Who Really Benefited from the Subsidy?

 

Although framed as pro-poor, fuel subsidies disproportionately benefited importers, traders, shipping firms, depot owners, financiers, and politically connected intermediaries. Smuggling across borders meant Nigerians subsidised fuel consumption in neighbouring countries.

 

Ordinary citizens received marginal relief at the pump but paid far more through inflation, deteriorating infrastructure, and underfunded public services. The subsidy system functioned less as social protection and more as elite redistribution.

 

 

 

The Traders’ Dilemma

 

Why did major fuel marketers like Oando invest in refineries abroad but not in Nigeria? Again, incentives explain behaviour. Importation offered faster returns, lower capital requirements, and political insulation. Domestic refining demanded long-term investment under unstable rules.

 

In an irrational system, rational actors optimise accordingly. Importation thrived not because it was efficient, but because policy made it so.

 

 

 

FDI and the Confidence Problem

 

Sustainable Foreign Direct Investment follows domestic confidence. When local investors, who best understand political and regulatory risks, avoid long-term industrial projects, foreign investors take note. Capital flows to environments with predictable pricing, rule of law, and policy consistency.

 

Nigeria’s challenge is not attracting speculative capital, but building conditions for patient, productive investment.

 

 

 

Dangote and the Monopoly Question

 

Dangote Refinery deserves credit. But scale brings power, and power demands oversight. If importers exit and no competing refineries emerge, Dangote could dominate refining, pricing, and supply. Nigeria’s experience with cement, where domestic production rose but prices soared due to limited competition, offers a cautionary tale.

 

Markets function best with competition. Without it, price manipulation, supply risks, and weakened energy security become real dangers, especially in countries with fragile regulatory institutions.

 

 

 

The Way Forward: Competition, Not Replacement

 

Nigeria does not need to weaken Dangote; it needs to multiply Dangotes. The goal should be a competitive refining ecosystem, not a replacement of a public monopoly with a private monopoly.

 

 

This requires transparent crude allocation, open access to pipelines and storage, fair pricing mechanisms, and strong antitrust enforcement. State refineries must either be professionally concessional or decisively restructured. Stalled projects like BUA’s should be unblocked, and modular refineries should be supported.

 

 

The Litmus Test

Nigeria’s refining crisis was decades in the making and cannot be solved by one refinery, however large. Dangote Refinery is a turning point, but only if embedded within systemic reform. Otherwise, Nigeria risks trading one form of dependency for another.

 

The true test is not whether Nigeria can refine fuel, but whether it can build fair, open, and resilient institutions that serve the public interest. In refining, as in democracy, excessive concentration of power is dangerous. Competition remains the strongest safeguard.

 

 

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]

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Alpha Morgan Bank Deepens Presence in Abuja with New Branch in Utako

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Alpha Morgan Bank Deepens Presence in Abuja with New Branch in Utako

 

Marking another milestone in its expansion drive, Alpha Morgan Bank has opened a new branch in Utako, Abuja, reinforcing its strategy of building closer institutional ties within key business communities and bringing its financial expertise closer to individuals, and enterprises driving the city’s growth.

 

 

The new branch, located at Plot 1121 Obafemi Awolowo Way, Utako, Abuja is strategically positioned to serve individuals, entrepreneurs, and corporate clients within Utako and surrounding districts.

 

 

The expansion follows the Bank’s recently concluded Economic Review Webinar held in February 2026, as the bank continues to position as a thought-leader in the financial services industry.

 

 

Speaking on the opening, Ade Buraimo, Managing Director of Alpha Morgan Bank, said the move underscores the Bank’s commitment to accessibility and service excellence.

 

 

“Proximity matters in banking. As communities grow and commercial activity expands, financial institutions also evolve to meet customers where they are. The Utako Branch allows us to deliver our services to people in that community efficiently while maintaining the high standards our customers expect,”

 

 

The Utako location will provide a full suite of retail and corporate banking services, including account opening, deposits, transfers, business banking solutions, and financial advisory support.

 

 

Customers and members of the public are invited to visit the new Utako Branch to experience the Bank’s approach to satisfying banking.

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Dangote Refinery Prioritises Domestic Supply Amid Global Energy Turbulence

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Dangote Refinery Prioritises Domestic Supply Amid Global Energy Turbulence

By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by SaharaWeeklyNG 

“Nigeria insulated from international fuel shocks as Dangote Petroleum commits to uninterrupted local delivery.”

 

Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has reaffirmed its commitment to prioritising the domestic market, pledging to shield Nigerians from the ripple effects of ongoing global energy disruptions. The assurance, delivered in Lagos on 5 March 2026, comes as international refinery operations experience shutdowns or reduced output due to escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, which have sent crude oil and petroleum product prices soaring worldwide.

 

“Our mandate remains clear: Nigeria’s local market takes precedence. In times of global supply shocks, we will continue to ensure that domestic availability of petrol, diesel, and kerosene is uninterrupted,” said Mr. Folorunsho Alakija, spokesperson for Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

 

The refinery’s declaration arrives amid mounting concerns over fuel scarcity, triggered by export restrictions imposed by major international producers, including China, and shipping delays that have further tightened global petroleum supply chains. Industry analysts have hailed the domestic focus as a critical buffer against volatility that could otherwise push Nigeria into deeper energy insecurity.

 

Domestic Shield Against Global Disruption

Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest oil processing facility, has leveraged its multi-million-barrel refining capacity to mitigate Nigeria’s historical dependence on imported petroleum products. The company emphasised that prioritising local supply provides a strategic advantage in insulating the nation from international market shocks.

 

“Our refinery’s scale allows Nigeria to withstand short-term external disruptions. We have the infrastructure and capacity to meet local demand even when global supply chains falter,” explained Mr. Chijioke Okonkwo, Operations Director at Dangote Refinery.

 

The proactive approach is particularly significant as several international refineries have either reduced throughput or temporarily halted operations, causing a global scarcity of refined products. Experts warn that without domestic cushioning, fuel prices in Nigeria could have surged sharply, exacerbating inflationary pressures in a fragile economy.

 

Managing Costs While Prioritising Supply

In response to rising procurement costs for crude oil amid the international crisis, Dangote Refinery introduced a modest ₦100 per litre increase in the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), absorbing roughly 20 percent of the cost escalation to lessen the impact on consumers.

 

“We are balancing operational sustainability with affordability. While global prices have risen sharply, we have chosen to absorb a significant portion to protect Nigerian households and businesses,” noted Mr. Emmanuel Adeyemi, Chief Finance Officer.

 

This pricing strategy underscores the refinery’s dual focus: ensuring uninterrupted supply while cushioning the public from abrupt spikes that could destabilize economic activity. Industry observers have lauded the approach as pragmatic, considering the volatility in international oil markets.

 

Strategic Distribution Initiatives

Beyond refining, Dangote Petroleum has initiated Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) powered trucks to enhance nationwide distribution efficiency. The initiative seeks to reduce logistics costs and carbon emissions while ensuring a more reliable delivery network to petrol stations across urban and rural areas.

 

“Logistics is a critical part of the energy supply chain. By deploying CNG-powered trucks, we reduce dependency on expensive diesel, lower delivery costs, and improve supply reliability across the country,” explained Ms. Funke Adedoyin, Head of Logistics Operations.

 

This strategic move reflects a broader commitment to modernising Nigeria’s petroleum distribution infrastructure, reducing bottlenecks that have historically contributed to scarcity at retail outlets.

 

Implications for National Energy Security

Nigeria has historically struggled with fuel imports to meet domestic demand, making the country vulnerable to international market fluctuations. Dangote Refinery’s prioritisation of local supply mitigates this vulnerability by leveraging home-grown refining capacity, which allows for timely access to petroleum products and less reliance on foreign shipments.

 

“With Dangote Refinery leading local prioritisation, Nigeria is less exposed to global fuel shocks. The country is moving towards self-reliance in petroleum product supply,” commented Dr. Halima Suleiman, energy sector analyst.

 

Experts note that sustained operations at the refinery not only enhance energy security but also preserve foreign exchange, reduce import bills, and stabilise domestic market prices.

 

Corporate Social Responsibility and Market Stability

The refinery’s commitment is part of a broader corporate responsibility framework. Dangote Petroleum continues to engage with government agencies and regulatory bodies, ensuring that domestic supply is coordinated with Nigeria’s Petroleum Product Pricing and Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) to prevent panic buying and market distortions.

 

“We are in constant consultation with the government to ensure that our supply strategies align with national economic priorities,” said Mr. Alakija.

 

Such collaboration helps avert artificial shortages, stabilises pump prices, and maintains confidence in the domestic fuel market. Analysts argue that this approach exemplifies how private sector capabilities can complement governmental policies to enhance national resilience.

 

Navigating Global Uncertainties

The refinery operates in a complex global environment, where geopolitical crises, shipping constraints, and crude oil volatility can trigger disruptions. Dangote Petroleum’s domestic-first approach positions Nigeria to weather such crises more effectively.

 

“Global uncertainties are unavoidable, but our infrastructure and strategy ensure that Nigerians remain insulated from immediate shocks,” said Mr. Okonkwo.

 

This emphasis on resilience aligns with global best practices, where national refining capacity is leveraged to protect local markets from international supply disruptions.

 

Stakeholder Reactions

The government, civil society, and industry stakeholders have welcomed Dangote Petroleum’s strategy. Officials from the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources noted that prioritising local supply aligns with Nigeria’s energy security policies and reduces the burden of foreign exchange expenditures on crude imports.

 

“Dangote Refinery is demonstrating leadership. Its domestic prioritisation ensures that the Nigerian economy remains insulated during turbulent global markets,” said Dr. Tunji Olumide, Special Adviser on Energy.

 

Consumers have also expressed cautious optimism. Retail operators and commuters reported steadier fuel availability in Lagos and other cities, though concerns remain about sustained pricing and distribution efficiency.

 

The Road Ahead

While Dangote Refinery’s strategy provides immediate relief, experts argue that long-term stability requires further investments in alternative energy, diversified refining infrastructure, and strategic reserves. This ensures that Nigeria can withstand global shocks without relying excessively on imports or temporary supply adjustments.

 

“Short-term measures like prioritising local supply are critical, but long-term energy security demands diversification, renewables adoption, and consistent policy implementation,” said Dr. Suleiman.

 

The refinery is exploring additional initiatives, including expanding storage capacity, upgrading pipeline networks, and adopting technology-driven monitoring systems to ensure supply continuity across the country.

 

Final Take

By prioritising domestic fuel supply amid global market turbulence, Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has demonstrated its role as a stabilising force in Nigeria’s energy sector. Through strategic logistics, modest pricing adjustments, and engagement with government regulators, the refinery is insulating the nation from international shocks while maintaining operational sustainability.

 

“Our responsibility extends beyond profitability; it’s about ensuring Nigerians have reliable access to essential fuel. We take that mandate seriously,” concluded Mr. Adeyemi.

 

The refinery’s actions offer a blueprint for how large-scale domestic capacity can protect national economies in times of global energy instability, underscoring the critical intersection of private sector resilience, public policy, and national energy security.

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Time is of the essence,” the group stressed. “Every delay compounds the hardship and weakens faith in the system.”

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Trapped Funds, Fading Trust: Heritage Bank Depositors Demand Urgent CBN Bailout

By Ifeoma Ikem 

 

 

Nearly two years after the collapse of Heritage Bank, thousands of depositors say they are still living with the financial and emotional aftershocks of a liquidation they insist was never meant to end this way. What began as regulatory reassurances has, in their view, spiralled into prolonged uncertainty, partial payments, and mounting hardship, thus prompting a fresh and urgent appeal to President Bola Tinubu and the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olayemi Cardoso, to intervene decisively.

Trapped Funds, Fading Trust: Heritage Bank Depositors Demand Urgent CBN Bailout

By Ifeoma Ikem 
 

In a strongly-worded statement issued in Lagos, the depositors framed their demand not simply as a financial request but as a test of the country’s commitment to safeguarding public trust in its banking system. They are asking the Central Bank to provide immediate bailout funds to the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) to enable full reimbursement of all affected customers, arguing that the pace of recovery so far has been painfully slow and grossly inadequate.

 

According to them, while insured deposits up to ₦5 million were covered under statutory provisions, payments beyond that threshold (known as liquidation dividends) have amounted to just 14.2 percent of their total balances in nearly two years. The first tranche of 9.2 percent was paid in April 2024. A second installment of 5 percent followed recently. For many, that has been the extent of relief.

 

At this rate, they argue, the mathematics simply does not inspire confidence.

 

“These are not abstract figures,” one depositor said. “They represent school fees, retirement savings, working capital for small businesses, cooperative funds, and life savings built over decades.” Among those affected, they say, are civil servants, retirees, entrepreneurs, and families whose livelihoods have been upended by the prolonged wait.

 

What deepens their frustration, they contend, is the memory of official assurances given before the bank’s collapse. When signs of distress first emerged, depositors recall that the Central Bank publicly and privately reassured customers that their funds were safe and that the institution remained sound. Those assurances, they say, influenced their decision not to withdraw their savings at the time.

 

The eventual liquidation therefore came as a shock, both financially and psychologically. “We trusted the regulator,” the group noted. “Between the Central Bank and the NDIC, we were told our funds would be repaid 100 percent.”

 

It is that promise, they argue, that must now be honored in full.

 

While acknowledging that the NDIC has begun verification and payment processes, the depositors insist that the agency lacks the financial capacity to conclude the exercise within a reasonable timeframe. They point to the scale of total deposits — estimated at about ₦650 billion — and the fact that only around ₦54 billion has been paid out in 18 months. In their view, that ratio raises serious questions about whether the liquidation process, left solely to asset recovery, can realistically guarantee timely reimbursement.

 

The group also referenced previous instances in which the Central Bank stepped in to stabilize distressed institutions, arguing that regulatory precedent supports intervention. They cited the reported ₦460 billion facility linked to Heritage Bank before its collapse, as well as substantial financial support extended to other banks to facilitate mergers or recapitalization. In one example, they noted, a ₦700 billion support package reportedly enabled a struggling bank to qualify for a merger, with favorable repayment terms that included a five-year moratorium and extended repayment window at below-market interest rates. They also referenced regulatory intervention in Keystone Bank as evidence that decisive action is possible when systemic stability is at stake.

 

Given that history, they say, it is difficult to understand why a direct bailout to protect depositors is not being prioritized.

 

Beyond financial restitution, the depositors are also calling for accountability. They demanded a thorough investigation and immediate prosecution of any individuals or entities found culpable of asset diversion, mismanagement, or actions that may have contributed to the bank’s collapse. To them, justice is as important as compensation.

 

They argue that without visible consequences, public confidence in the banking system could erode further. “The integrity of the financial sector rests not only on liquidity, but on accountability,” one stakeholder said. “If people believe that funds can disappear without consequences, trust collapses.”

 

The broader concern, they warn, is systemic. Nigeria has not witnessed a full commercial bank liquidation in over two decades, as troubled institutions have typically been resolved through mergers, acquisitions, or regulatory restructuring. Many depositors therefore assumed that a similar pathway would apply in this case. Instead, they say, liquidation has exposed gaps in depositor protection mechanisms.

 

They also question the broader insurance framework, noting that banks have paid premiums to the NDIC for years precisely to safeguard depositors. If recovery remains this limited, they argue, the protective purpose of that insurance scheme comes under scrutiny.

 

For small business owners, the implications have been severe. Some report shutting down operations due to frozen capital. Others speak of properties sold under distress or retirement plans abruptly altered. The social cost, they insist, is real and growing.

 

At the heart of their appeal is a request for clarity. They want a clear, binding timeline for completion of the liquidation process and a transparent roadmap outlining how and when full repayment will occur. Without that, they fear that partial dividends will continue indefinitely, eroded by inflation and the time value of money.

 

They have also urged the Presidency and the National Assembly to step in, arguing that the matter transcends a single bank and touches on Nigeria’s financial credibility before the global community. Prolonged uncertainty, they warn, risks signaling regulatory inconsistency at a time when the country seeks to attract investment and deepen financial inclusion.

 

For the depositors, the issue is no longer simply about numbers on a ledger. It is about confidence in regulators, in institutions, and in the promise that money kept within the formal banking system is secure.

 

They believe the Central Bank must now assume full responsibility for resolving what they describe as a crisis of trust. Whether through direct financial support to the NDIC, accelerated asset recovery, or a hybrid intervention model, they insist that swift action is essential.

 

“Time is of the essence,” the group stressed. “Every delay compounds the hardship and weakens faith in the system.”

 

In a nation striving to strengthen its financial architecture and restore economic stability, the resolution of the Heritage Bank liquidation may well become a defining test — not only of regulatory capacity, but of the enduring covenant between citizens and the institutions entrusted with their savings.

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