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A Tentative Recovery — OR WINDOW DRESSING? Nigeria’s GDP Grows 3.98% in Q3 2025: What the Number Hides and What Must Be Done
A Tentative Recovery — OR WINDOW DRESSING?
Nigeria’s GDP Grows 3.98% in Q3 2025: What the Number Hides and What Must Be Done.
By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by saharaweeklyng.com
“Separating Statistical Progress from Everyday Reality in Africa’s Most Complex Economy.”
Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98% year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). At first glance the figure looks like PROGRESS and it is PROGRESS of a kind. But beneath the tidy percentage lie a tangle of uneven sectoral performance, fragile price stability, fiscal strain and a persistent failure to translate macroeconomic numbers into better daily lives for ordinary Nigerians. This piece pulls apart the headline, explains what drove the expansion, flags the risks and offers an unvarnished judgment about what policymakers must do next.
What drove the 3.98% growth? The NBS report shows that the expansion in Q3 was BROAD-BASED but led by the non-oil economy (notably services and agriculture) even as the oil sector staged a modest recovery. Services accounted for the largest share of output and recorded one of the stronger growth rates, while agriculture returned to positive territory after weaker stretches in 2024. In aggregate, the non-oil sector contributed roughly 96% of GDP, underscoring how far Nigeria’s output composition has shifted away from hydrocarbons. Those structural shifts matter because they change the policy levers that actually move the economy.
The oil sector did record positive growth (helped by higher crude production) but its share of aggregate GDP remains small, a signal that oil is less of a direct growth engine than it used to be. In other words: while higher production matters for foreign exchange and government revenues, the day-to-day purchasing power and job creation that lift millions of households are overwhelmingly determined by non-oil activity.
Why the number is both WELCOME and WORRYING.
A WELCOME sign: sustained quarterly growth after a weak patch signals momentum. The World Bank has itself noted “POSITIVE ECONOMIC MOMENTUM” in 2025 and cautioned that reforms are beginning to yield results, while urging that gains be translated into tangible welfare improvements for the poor. As Mathew Verghis, World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, put it: “The Nigerian government has taken bold steps to stabilize the economy, and these efforts are beginning to yield results.” But the World Bank’s central caveat is crucial: macro stabilization is necessary but not sufficient; the poor still face high food inflation and widespread vulnerability.
The WORRYING side is immediate and stark. Inflation remains painfully high (double-digit and food inflation especially elevated) and borrowing costs are still punitive despite modest easing from earlier peaks to conditions that throttle business expansion and household welfare. Financial market and monetary policy improvements will not help families who spend the bulk of their income on food if the price of the basic food basket keeps rising. In short: GROWTH WITHOUT DISINFLATION AND REDISTRIBUTION IS A HOLLOW VICTORY. Sahara and other analysts reported inflation pressures and pointed to a still-high policy rate as part of the context for Q3 figures.
Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso has repeatedly insisted that credible, predictable policy will attract investment: “Stability is at the core of advancing Nigeria’s policy framework through inflation targeting. You do not need to beg anyone to invest.” That prescription is true, but only if the rest of the policy apparatus (fiscal discipline, supply-side fixes for food and energy, social protection) follows through. Stability without structural reform will not deliver jobs or lower the cost of living.
The fiscal and external backdrop. Growth does not occur in isolation. The Federal Government’s fiscal plans for 2026 (including a draft budget and medium-term fiscal framework) point to continued pressure on public finances, a SIZEABLE DEFICIT and RISING DEBT SERVICE OBLIGATIONS. The cabinet’s fiscal framework projects large budgetary needs, indicting the reality that public investment will be constrained unless revenue mobilization improves. In short: the state needs fiscal headroom to invest in the power, transport and logistics that convert growth into livable livelihoods.
On the external side, stronger oil production and higher non-oil exports have improved foreign exchange reserves and the external position compared with the crisis years. Those improvements matter: reserves and a more functional FX market reduce panic, allow imports of critical inputs and lower premium pressures. Yet, the gains remain delicate and reversible if confidence weakens or global commodity prices swing.
Where the gains must land: three urgent priorities
Tame inflation, especially food inflation. The World Bank and Nigerian policymakers agree: the single biggest tax on the poor is food price inflation. Targeted supply-side fixes (agricultural inputs, storage, logistics and trade measures) combined with a credible monetary framework, are indispensable. Without this, headline GDP growth will keep feeling distant from household reality.
Restore fiscal space and spend smarter. The 2026 fiscal framework highlights a difficult trade-off: service large debt obligations or invest in growth-enhancing infrastructure. Nigeria must tighten revenue collection, eliminate leakages, and prioritize public spending that directly boosts productivity (power, roads, ports, irrigation). Otherwise, growth will be cyclical and shallow.
Translate macro stability into real investment and jobs. As CBN Governor Cardoso has argued, predictable, transparent policy attracts investors. But to convert investment into jobs, governments must fix regulatory uncertainty, unblock transport bottlenecks, and support SMEs with affordable credit and market access. A solid monetary stance alone will not produce mass employment.
A candid verdict. A 3.98% growth rate is not a tragedy, it is evidence the economy is moving in the right direction after years of dislocations. But it is also a warning: growth that does not reduce costs for ordinary citizens, create stable jobs, and expand social protection is a fragile and politically toxic victory. The leadership in Abuja must stop treating statistics as an end in themselves and embrace a people-centered economic strategy that combines stabilization with direct interventions for food security, job creation and fiscal transparency.
If policymakers act with urgency (tightening the link between macro stability and social outcomes, spending smartly, and fixing supply bottlenecks) Nigeria can convert this modest momentum into sustained, inclusive growth. If they do not, the headline percentages will become yet another number that comforts elites while ordinary Nigerians continue to pay the price.
My Final note. Numbers matter and the NBS’s Q3 figure is worth acknowledging. But the measure of success is whether mothers can afford food, whether small businesses can borrow without choking on interest, and whether young people can find dignified work. Until those metrics improve, a 3.98% GDP print remains a TENTATIVE step and NOT a TRIUMPH.
society
OWUTU FM 2026 Ramadan Lecture: Sheikh Jamiu Asanbe Urges Muslims to Avoid Showboating in Worship
OWUTU FM 2026 Ramadan Lecture: Sheikh Jamiu Asanbe Urges Muslims to Avoid Showboating in Worship.
The Chief Imam of Agelete Central Mosque, Ikoyi Lagos, Alhaji Jamiu Asanbe, has urged Muslims to remain sincere in their acts of worship and avoid the temptation of seeking public praise for good deeds.
The respected Islamic scholar gave this admonition while delivering a lecture at the OWUTU FM 2026 Ramadan Lecture, held on Saturday, February 28, 2026, in Lagos.
Speaking on the importance of sincerity in Islam, Sheikh Asanbe cautioned Muslim faithful against what he described as “showboating” — the practice of performing charitable acts or religious duties merely to gain recognition or admiration from others.
According to him, every act of worship in Islam must be done purely for the sake of Almighty Allah.
He explained that while acts such as prayer, fasting, and charity are fundamental pillars of faith, their true value lies in the intention behind them.
The cleric therefore encouraged Muslims to remain genuine in their devotion and avoid mixing their faith with the desire for worldly praise or attention.
Sheikh Asanbe also reminded the faithful that the holy month of Ramadan presents a unique opportunity for spiritual renewal. He urged believers to increase acts of generosity, particularly by supporting the needy, vulnerable members of society, and orphans.
Earlier in her remarks, the Convener of the Ramadan Lecture and CEO of OWUTU FM, Hajia Adejoke Muyibat Balogun, encouraged attendees to use the sacred month as a time for reflection, self-improvement, and community development.
She described the lecture theme as carefully selected to promote spirituality, strengthen faith, and encourage peaceful coexistence within the community.
Balogun expressed appreciation to the numerous guests and supporters who attended the event, noting that their presence reflected the strong bond within the community.
She further reaffirmed OWUTU FM’s commitment to sustaining the annual Ramadan Lecture, praying for Allah’s continued guidance and mercy in the years ahead.
The 2026 edition of the Ramadan Lecture attracted dignitaries and representatives from various organisations including Uzamot Communications, Okutex Fabrics, and the Yeye Asiwaju of Ojota Kingdom.
The event also featured engaging activities such as a quiz competition, where winners were presented with gifts. In the spirit of Ramadan, iftar meals were shared with guests, reinforcing the values of unity, generosity, and compassion that define the holy month.
Through initiatives like this, OWUTU FM continues to play a vital role in promoting faith-based dialogue, community engagement, and social harmony.
Tinubu Abroad, Nigeria in Chaos: The Spectacle of Elite Excess
By George Omagbemi Sylvester
“Government officials queue to bid him farewell as he departs, only to rush ahead and line up again to welcome him at his destination; a stark display of misaligned priorities in Nigerian leadership.”
Wednesday, March18, 2026
In a spectacle that has plunged Nigeria’s political class into fresh ignominy, a long line of federal ministers, governors, senators and political hangers‑on queued outside a London hotel this week to welcome President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR upon his arrival in the United Kingdom for a two‑day state visit.
Not only did these government officials send off Mr. Tinubu as he departed Nigeria (a ritual in itself excessive given the scale of pressing national crises) they rushed ahead to London to line the halls of his hotel, applauding and greeting him like conquering heroes arriving on foreign shores. This is how Nigeria’s elites now comport themselves while millions of citizens endure ever‑deepening hardship.
A Travesty of Priorities
Tinubu’s visit to the UK, hosted by King Charles III and Queen Camilla, is officially billed as an effort to deepen trade relations, attract investment and strengthen bilateral cooperation between Britain and Africa’s most populous nation. While those diplomatic objectives in theory could benefit Nigeria, the optics of an entire political class fawning over a president abroad are unbearably grim against the backdrop of domestic suffering.
According to recent economic analysis, despite macroeconomic adjustments such as ending fuel subsidies and floating the naira, more than 60% of Nigerians still live in poverty and daily hardships are rampant. Security remains a grave concern with violence and banditry destabilising large swathes of the country. Instead of addressing these crises with urgency, Nigeria’s leadership appears fascinated with photo‑ops overseas.
“A System of Self‑Centred Elites”
Critics within Nigeria have not minced words. Political observers describe the spectacle as a display of self‑centred politics divorced from the realities facing ordinary citizens. One observer on social platforms summed up the broader sentiment: “Tinubu represents a system of self‑centred elites (elite consensus over popular will) and this is exactly the performative politics that lines like these embody.”
Dr. Godfrey Mwakikagile, a respected African scholar on post‑colonial governance, has long warned that bad leadership and lack of accountability are Africa’s greatest challenges. “Power in many African states is too centralised and concentrated in the hands of elites who use it to perpetuate themselves at the expense of the public good,” Mwakikagile recently argued; a critique that resonates all the more when ministers fly abroad not to pursue tangible policy but to line up like admirers.
The Cost of Foreign Pageantry
This isn’t the first time Tinubu’s foreign engagements have attracted scrutiny. His administration’s frequent travels (often with large entourages) have drawn criticism for prioritising optics over outcomes, especially when Nigeria’s economy contracts and its people struggle with food inflation and insecurity.
Former presidential candidate Peter Obi has been among the most vocal domestic critics of these priorities, noting that Tinubu’s extensive foreign travel (including to the UK) distracts from urgent national needs and has become a “matter of grave concern.” Obi insists that such actions reveal a leadership more interested in global visibility than domestic wellbeing.
Nigeria Jagajaga!
The phrase “Nigeria jagajaga” (loosely translated as Nigeria being in disarray) has never felt more apt. A nation where ministers greet presidents in plush foreign suites while citizens queue for food and services is a country deeply out of balance.
Instead of being welcomed like dignitaries abroad, ministers and governors should be at home addressing the root causes of Nigeria’s struggles: insecurity that displaces communities and kills livelihoods, an economy that leaves the majority impoverished despite reforms, and the persistent failings of governance that erode public trust.
What Nigerians Deserve
President Tinubu and his entourage should be judged not by the number of ministers who lined up to greet him in London, but by the lives changed back in Nigeria.
As scholars like Mwakikagile and critics like Obi remind us, political leadership must be accountable and grounded in service, not spectacle. Nigeria’s leaders owe the people more than applause at international hotels; they owe them safety, economic opportunity, and genuine progress.
If this nation is ever to break free from the cycle of “jagajaga,” then those in power must demonstrate sincerity, not pageantry; action, not admiration. The lines outside a London hotel are not a testament to leadership; they are a testament to where Nigeria’s priorities have tragically come to rest.
GENERAL BULAMA BIU MOURNS VICTIMS OF BORNO ATTACKS, CALLS FOR UNITY AND VIGILANCE**
In a solemn and heartfelt message, Major General Abdulmalik Bulama Biu (Rtd), mni, the Sarkin Yakin Biu, has expressed profound grief over the recent tragic incidents of bomb explosions in Maiduguri and renewed violent attacks in several communities across Borno State.
This was contained in a statement he personally signed and made available to the press.
The retired senior military officer described the assaults which affected areas including Ngoshe, Mandiragirau, Ajiri, and Buratai as “cruel and most barbaric,” particularly as they occurred during a period of deep religious observance for many residents. General Biu extended his condolences to His Excellency, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum, the Executive Governor of Borno State, the people of the state, and especially the immediate families of the victims.
“These unfortunate attacks have painfully led to the loss of innocent lives and destruction of properties, a painful reminder of the challenges we continue to face as a people,” he stated.
General Biu prayed that Almighty Allah grants the deceased eternal rest (Jannatul Firdaus) and grants the injured a speedy recovery. He also commended the bravery and swift response of security agencies and emergency responders, acknowledging their tireless efforts to protect lives and restore peace in the state.
Addressing the resilient people of Borno, including elders, community leaders, associations, and the vibrant youth, General Biu urged steadfastness, unity, and increased vigilance. “Let us once again rejig our commitment and ensure we overcome this development. We have done it in time past, we can still do it now together,” he emphasized.
He further called on citizens not to allow “these cowardly acts to break our spirit or weaken our collective resolve to achieve lasting peace and stability.”
In strong terms, General Biu declared his solidarity with Governor Zulum, the state government, stakeholders, and all well-meaning citizens in condemning the attacks. He concluded his message with a prayer: “May Allah (SWT) bring lasting peace to Borno State and the entire nation.”
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