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A Tentative Recovery — OR WINDOW DRESSING? Nigeria’s GDP Grows 3.98% in Q3 2025: What the Number Hides and What Must Be Done
A Tentative Recovery — OR WINDOW DRESSING?
Nigeria’s GDP Grows 3.98% in Q3 2025: What the Number Hides and What Must Be Done.
By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by saharaweeklyng.com
“Separating Statistical Progress from Everyday Reality in Africa’s Most Complex Economy.”
Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98% year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). At first glance the figure looks like PROGRESS and it is PROGRESS of a kind. But beneath the tidy percentage lie a tangle of uneven sectoral performance, fragile price stability, fiscal strain and a persistent failure to translate macroeconomic numbers into better daily lives for ordinary Nigerians. This piece pulls apart the headline, explains what drove the expansion, flags the risks and offers an unvarnished judgment about what policymakers must do next.
What drove the 3.98% growth? The NBS report shows that the expansion in Q3 was BROAD-BASED but led by the non-oil economy (notably services and agriculture) even as the oil sector staged a modest recovery. Services accounted for the largest share of output and recorded one of the stronger growth rates, while agriculture returned to positive territory after weaker stretches in 2024. In aggregate, the non-oil sector contributed roughly 96% of GDP, underscoring how far Nigeria’s output composition has shifted away from hydrocarbons. Those structural shifts matter because they change the policy levers that actually move the economy.
The oil sector did record positive growth (helped by higher crude production) but its share of aggregate GDP remains small, a signal that oil is less of a direct growth engine than it used to be. In other words: while higher production matters for foreign exchange and government revenues, the day-to-day purchasing power and job creation that lift millions of households are overwhelmingly determined by non-oil activity.
Why the number is both WELCOME and WORRYING.
A WELCOME sign: sustained quarterly growth after a weak patch signals momentum. The World Bank has itself noted “POSITIVE ECONOMIC MOMENTUM” in 2025 and cautioned that reforms are beginning to yield results, while urging that gains be translated into tangible welfare improvements for the poor. As Mathew Verghis, World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, put it: “The Nigerian government has taken bold steps to stabilize the economy, and these efforts are beginning to yield results.” But the World Bank’s central caveat is crucial: macro stabilization is necessary but not sufficient; the poor still face high food inflation and widespread vulnerability.
The WORRYING side is immediate and stark. Inflation remains painfully high (double-digit and food inflation especially elevated) and borrowing costs are still punitive despite modest easing from earlier peaks to conditions that throttle business expansion and household welfare. Financial market and monetary policy improvements will not help families who spend the bulk of their income on food if the price of the basic food basket keeps rising. In short: GROWTH WITHOUT DISINFLATION AND REDISTRIBUTION IS A HOLLOW VICTORY. Sahara and other analysts reported inflation pressures and pointed to a still-high policy rate as part of the context for Q3 figures.
Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso has repeatedly insisted that credible, predictable policy will attract investment: “Stability is at the core of advancing Nigeria’s policy framework through inflation targeting. You do not need to beg anyone to invest.” That prescription is true, but only if the rest of the policy apparatus (fiscal discipline, supply-side fixes for food and energy, social protection) follows through. Stability without structural reform will not deliver jobs or lower the cost of living.
The fiscal and external backdrop. Growth does not occur in isolation. The Federal Government’s fiscal plans for 2026 (including a draft budget and medium-term fiscal framework) point to continued pressure on public finances, a SIZEABLE DEFICIT and RISING DEBT SERVICE OBLIGATIONS. The cabinet’s fiscal framework projects large budgetary needs, indicting the reality that public investment will be constrained unless revenue mobilization improves. In short: the state needs fiscal headroom to invest in the power, transport and logistics that convert growth into livable livelihoods.
On the external side, stronger oil production and higher non-oil exports have improved foreign exchange reserves and the external position compared with the crisis years. Those improvements matter: reserves and a more functional FX market reduce panic, allow imports of critical inputs and lower premium pressures. Yet, the gains remain delicate and reversible if confidence weakens or global commodity prices swing.
Where the gains must land: three urgent priorities
Tame inflation, especially food inflation. The World Bank and Nigerian policymakers agree: the single biggest tax on the poor is food price inflation. Targeted supply-side fixes (agricultural inputs, storage, logistics and trade measures) combined with a credible monetary framework, are indispensable. Without this, headline GDP growth will keep feeling distant from household reality.
Restore fiscal space and spend smarter. The 2026 fiscal framework highlights a difficult trade-off: service large debt obligations or invest in growth-enhancing infrastructure. Nigeria must tighten revenue collection, eliminate leakages, and prioritize public spending that directly boosts productivity (power, roads, ports, irrigation). Otherwise, growth will be cyclical and shallow.
Translate macro stability into real investment and jobs. As CBN Governor Cardoso has argued, predictable, transparent policy attracts investors. But to convert investment into jobs, governments must fix regulatory uncertainty, unblock transport bottlenecks, and support SMEs with affordable credit and market access. A solid monetary stance alone will not produce mass employment.
A candid verdict. A 3.98% growth rate is not a tragedy, it is evidence the economy is moving in the right direction after years of dislocations. But it is also a warning: growth that does not reduce costs for ordinary citizens, create stable jobs, and expand social protection is a fragile and politically toxic victory. The leadership in Abuja must stop treating statistics as an end in themselves and embrace a people-centered economic strategy that combines stabilization with direct interventions for food security, job creation and fiscal transparency.
If policymakers act with urgency (tightening the link between macro stability and social outcomes, spending smartly, and fixing supply bottlenecks) Nigeria can convert this modest momentum into sustained, inclusive growth. If they do not, the headline percentages will become yet another number that comforts elites while ordinary Nigerians continue to pay the price.
My Final note. Numbers matter and the NBS’s Q3 figure is worth acknowledging. But the measure of success is whether mothers can afford food, whether small businesses can borrow without choking on interest, and whether young people can find dignified work. Until those metrics improve, a 3.98% GDP print remains a TENTATIVE step and NOT a TRIUMPH.
news
Journalists for Good Governance Shines Searchlight on Local Government Administration
Journalists for Good Governance Shines Searchlight on Local Government Administration
…Calls for Accountability in Nigeria’s Grassroots Governance
LAGOS, Nigeria — A civil society coalition known as Journalists for Good Governance(JGG) has intensified public debate on transparency and accountability within Nigeria’s local government system, urging media professionals, civil society actors, and citizens to hold grassroots leaders accountable.
Speaking an event in Lagos recently, the acting chairman of the society, Comrade Bunmi Obarotimi said that despite reforms such as the Supreme Court’s 2024 ruling granting financial autonomy to all 774 Local Government Areas (LGAs), systemic challenges continues to hinder effective service delivery and responsible stewardship of public funds.
“Local governments are the closest tier of government to the people — yet too often they remain the least transparent. Without civic oversight and vibrant media, promises of autonomy ring hollow.” the acting chairman said.
The Journalist for Good Governance emphasised crucial roles that journalists can play in uncovering discrepancies in council spending, flagging poor service delivery, and educating citizens on their rights. Their call comes amid wider efforts by media and civic organisations to bridge accountability gaps. The civil society initiatives had previously launched monitoring campaigns to track local government expenditures and have been quietly advocating for transparency in how public money is deployed.
The leaders of the Journalists for Good Governance (JGG) highlighted the importance of physical assessment and citizens engagement on projects to boost people’s confidence, urging local councils to adopt open data platforms and proactive information dissemination in compliance with the Freedom of Information Act. Experts say the majority of LGAs currently lack operational websites or digital portals, further limiting public scrutiny.
The Journalists for Good Governance initiative aligns with sustained advocacy by civil society groups and governance experts calling for a collective approach to strengthening democratic accountability, and has decided to engage in critical and holistic assessments of how Local Governments is being run and the impact and quality of projects they embark-on and to address deficits in transparency and public trust.
Meanwhile, some state governments have signalled support for improved community engagement. In Lagos State, authorities reiterated a commitment to enhancing community media platforms as vehicles for civic participation and accountability at the grassroots level.
The renewed spotlight on local government administration has reignited public debate over fiscal responsibility and priorities. Controversies such as the widely criticised Adamawa council chairmen’s wives trip to Istanbul — which drew public outrage for perceived misuse of public funds — underscore why watchdog groups say stronger oversight mechanisms are urgently needed at the grassroots.
Citizens and activists have welcomed the journalists’ initiative, calling for sustained media engagement that goes beyond headlines to influence policy and accountability reform.
The civic rights advocates note that real change will require robust legal frameworks, a free press, and empowered communities equipped to demand transparency at every level of governance.
As Journalists for Good Governance mobilises its members, the coming months are likely to see heightened media attention on grassroots administration — from council budgets and service delivery to the enforcement of public information laws and digital transparency initiatives.
society
Good Politics Or Just Power? Two Years After The Elections
Good Politics Or Just Power? Two Years After The Elections
Two years after the last general election, Nigerians are justified in asking a direct question: is our democracy stronger today than it was then? Democracy is not measured by how many offices a party controls or how loudly politicians speak. It is measured by integrity, accountability, and the lived experience of the people. Good Politics demands more than victory at the polls; it demands moral leadership and visible progress in the lives of citizens.
The debate over amendments to the Electoral Act should have provided an opportunity to deepen transparency and strengthen public confidence. Instead, hesitation to fully embrace reforms that safeguard credible vote transmission and accountability has fueled doubt. In a nation where electoral credibility remains fragile, any reluctance to reinforce safeguards sends the wrong signal. Good Politics stands firmly for processes that are open, fair, and beyond suspicion.
The party in power commands significant authority across the federation. With control of the presidency, many state governments, a strong presence in the National Assembly, and influence at local levels, there should be no anxiety about reforms that ensure free and fair elections. Confidence in leadership is demonstrated not by dominance, but by a willingness to subject power to scrutiny. Politics rooted in the omoluabi ethos embraces fairness, transparency, and responsibility, even when inconvenient.
This is the standard long associated with Awolowo, whose politics emphasized discipline, social welfare, education, and institutional strength. His vision was not merely about holding office, but about transforming society through principled governance. Good Politics follows that tradition. It rejects manipulation, arrogance, and the concentration of power without accountability. It insists that authority must serve the people, not itself.
Beyond electoral reforms, democracy must deliver tangible relief. Across the country, households struggle with rising prices and shrinking purchasing power. Small businesses are burdened by escalating costs. Young people search for opportunities that remain scarce. When economic hardship deepens, democracy feels abstract. Good Politics recognizes that political legitimacy is reinforced when citizens can see and feel the benefits of governance.
The concentration of power within a single political structure should translate into coordinated reform and measurable development. When it does not, questions naturally arise. Democracy weakens when dominance replaces performance. It weakens when loyalty to party eclipses loyalty to principle. The omoluabi tradition teaches that character defines leadership. Without character, authority becomes hollow.
A healthy democracy requires credible elections and compassionate governance. It requires leaders who understand that politics is a moral enterprise. Two years into this administration, many Nigerians remain uncertain about the direction of both our democratic processes and their daily welfare. If democracy is to endure, it must reflect Good Politics: fairness in competition, integrity in conduct, and compassion in governance. Anything less falls short of the standard that our history and our values demand.
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GEN CHRISTOPHER GWABIN MUSA SUPPORT INITIATIVE COMMENDS STATE-FEDERAL COLLABORATION IN ZAMFARA
GEN CHRISTOPHER GWABIN MUSA SUPPORT INITIATIVE COMMENDS STATE-FEDERAL COLLABORATION IN ZAMFARA
The Gen Christopher Gwabin Musa Support Initiative (GCGMSI) has commended the Zamfara State Government for its decisive contribution to security operations through the donation of newly acquired armoured personnel carriers (APCs), surveillance drones, and other critical operational equipment to troops and security agencies in the state.
This commendation was contained in a statement signed by the Convener of the GCGMSI, Ibrahim Dahiru Danfulani, Sadaukin Garkuwan Keffi/Betara Biu, and made available to the press.
The equipment was formally commissioned on Wednesday, February 18, by the Grand Patron of the GCGMSI and Minister of Defence, General Christopher Gwabin Musa, OFR (rtd.), in a ceremony at the Government House, Gusau. The event was attended by senior military officers, heads of security agencies, and top officials of the Zamfara State Government.
The GCGMSI, in its statement, hailed the donation as a “transformative and timely intervention” that aligns perfectly with its core objective of advocating for and supporting tangible measures that enhance the operational capacity and welfare of Nigeria’s security forces. The Initiative praised Governor Dauda Lawal’s administration for moving beyond rhetoric to actionable, material support, describing the move as a “blueprint for state-level collaboration in national security.”
“The provision of these assets by the Zamfara State Government is a testament to visionary leadership and a profound commitment to the peace and stability of its people,” the GCGMSI statement read. “It represents the exact kind of synergistic partnership between state and federal authorities that the GCGMSI champions. This initiative will significantly close operational gaps, boost the confidence of our gallant troops, and send a strong message to criminal elements.”
Speaking at the commissioning, General Musa emphasized that sustained collaboration is indispensable in confronting the nation’s evolving security challenges. He specifically commended Governor Lawal for his proactive support.
“Governor Dauda Lawal has demonstrated exemplary leadership and an unwavering dedication to the security of Zamfara State,” the Defence Minister stated. “The provision of these armoured vehicles, surveillance drones, and other operational equipment will undoubtedly boost the morale and operational effectiveness of our troops and other security agencies on the ground. This is a commendable effort that should be emulated by others.”
The newly commissioned assets, which include multiple APCs and advanced surveillance drones, are expected to dramatically enhance the mobility, protection, intelligence-gathering, and rapid response capabilities of security forces, particularly in the state’s remote and difficult terrains where anti-banditry operations are ongoing.
In his remarks, Governor Lawal reiterated his administration’s steadfast commitment to being a reliable partner in the security architecture. He urged security agencies to deploy the new resources responsibly and effectively to safeguard lives and property.
The Federal Government, through the Ministry of Defence, reaffirmed its commitment to continuing and deepening such partnerships with state governments across the nation to strengthen coordination and resource allocation in the collective fight against insecurity.
The GCGMSI concluded its statement by urging other state governments to take a cue from Zamfara’s “bold and pragmatic” approach, affirming that such concrete support is vital for achieving lasting peace and security across Nigeria.
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