Business
Crisis on Multiple Fronts: Reuters & World Bank Expose Nigeria’s Humanitarian and Economic Collapse.
Crisis on Multiple Fronts: Reuters & World Bank Expose Nigeria’s Humanitarian and Economic Collapse.
By George Omagbemi Sylvester | SaharaWeeklyNG.com
“Record hunger. Surging inflation. A nation on the edge.”
In Nigeria today, the line between economic distress and humanitarian catastrophe is vanishing. Reports from Reuters and the World Bank paint a dire Tableau which millions are teetering on the brink, besieged by food insecurity, inflation, fiscal strain and systemic fragility. This is not a distant crisis; but the lived reality for many Nigerians.
Humanitarian Alarm Bells: Hunger, Displacement and Aid Droughts.
The United Nations now warns that nearly 31 million Nigerians are experiencing acute food insecurity, an ominous figure equivalent to the population of a MEDIUM-SIZED COUNTRY. This is not due to lack of need; but to a catastrophic shortfall in humanitarian funding. The World Food Programme (WFP) has sounded the alarm that cuts in aid will force over 1.3 million Nigerians to lose essential food support.
In northeastern Nigeria (a conflict-scarred zone already battered by insurgency) over 150 nutrition clinics are at risk of closure, placing 300,000 children at danger of severe malnutrition, while 700,000 displaced persons could be left without vital support. These are not abstractions; they are children whose next meal is uncertain, mothers watching their infants fade, families torn from their lands. The humanitarian safety net has holes wide enough to swallow entire communities.
Memory of past disasters haunts the present. In 2024, raging floods displaced millions, destroyed crops and worsened nutrition deficits; especially among subsistence farmers. In conflict zones, the devastation multiplies: fields lie fallow, trade routes shut and supply chains collapse.
One recent empirical study in Benue State confirms a grim truth, insecurity reduces agricultural output directly. The researchers found that even a modest rise in insecurity correlates with a 0.211% drop in crop yields and 0.311% drop in livestock output. In other words, violence is not a side effect but a contributor.
Amid this dearth of aid, the USAID decision to slash support in northeastern Nigeria amounts to a lifeline being yanked away. Over 90% of key foreign aid contracts were terminated, pushing relief operations to the brink. In Dikwa and other displaced persons sites, malnutrition and mortality climb while humanitarian actors pull back.
Economic Realities: Growth with Broken Bones.
In the economic realm, the World Bank and Reuters both register a paradox whereby Nigeria’s GDP is showing signs of recovery, yet the masses are sinking further.
According to Reuters, the Nigerian economy posted its fastest growth in a decade during 2024, with a 4.6% expansion in the final quarter. The Bank projects a more tempered 3.6% growth in 2025. Yet this growth is brittle. Inflation remains entrenched (especially in food prices) and the purchasing power of ordinary Nigerians continues to erode. The World Bank describes inflation as a “BURDEN,” warning that lower oil prices are offset by rising costs of imports.
The Nigerian fiscal deficit is projected at 2.6% of GDP in 2025, nearly unchanged from 2024, while public debt (once a pressing risk) may decline slightly from 42.9% to 39.8% of GDP. Mathew Verghis, World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, said that while government steps to stabilize the economy are beginning to pay dividends, the relief has yet to reach the most vulnerable.
Still, the structural contradictions are stark. Economic gains are tilted toward sectors like finance, ICT and transport, with limited spin-off into jobs and livelihoods. As the World Bank notes, employment alone is not enough, what matters are productive jobs.
Reuters furthermore reports that Nigeria’s Finance Minister, Wale Edun, has publicly admitted that the country must double its growth rate in the next year or two to plausibly reduce poverty. That is no small ask, yet the stakes could not be higher.
The Human Cost Behind the Numbers.
Between 2018/19 and 2024, an estimated 45 million additional Nigerians slipped into poverty, bringing the share of Nigerians below the poverty line to roughly 47%. In rural areas, poverty is pervasive; over three in four rural dwellers now live in poverty, while in urban centers more than two in five do so. Meanwhile, food inflation continues to ravage the poor. Poor households (whose limited budgets allocate up to 70% toward food) bear the brunt. The Jollof Index, a clever food-price tracker in Nigeria, spotlights how basic meals have become prohibitively expensive such as rice, tomatoes, onions, protein and oil prices have all surged in ways that outpace general inflation.
As Reuters captured, even with improving macroeconomic indicators, high food prices remain a heavy burden on vulnerable Nigerians. Now add to that regional inequality, insecurity and dysfunctional social programs and what you have is a perfect storm.
Structural Fault Lines: Why Growth Failed the Poor.
1. Weak revenue mobilization & fiscal misalignment.
Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio hovers near 10.9%, placing it far behind peer African economies like South Africa or Rwanda. While new tax reforms (e.g. higher VAT) are floating in policy circles, they face resistance and especially from states wary of federal revenue allocations.
Government spending is misaligned, sectors most essential to human development (Education, Health, Agriculture) are underfunded. Security claims a large slice of the budget, while agriculture and social infrastructure receive paltry allocations.
2. Ineffective social protection.
The World Bank repeatedly calls attention to the need to protect the poor and economically insecure by strengthening social protection frameworks. Yet implementation is weak-poor targeting, late payments, leakages and insufficient scale mean many fall through the cracks.
3. Insecurity & climate risk.
Insurgency, banditry, farmer-herder conflict and environmental degradation strike hardest in Nigeria’s least resilient states. The loss in agricultural output, displacement of farming households and fracturing of supply chains all deepen humanitarian hardships.
4. Uneven growth.
Growth has failed to be inclusive. Gains cluster in urban, capital-intensive sectors. Rural areas, especially in the North and Northeast, see scant trickle-down. The divide between those benefiting and those excluded grows wider each year.
5. Dependence on oil & external shocks.
Despite being oil-rich, Nigeria’s overdependence on hydrocarbon exports makes it vulnerable to swings in global prices. When oil dips, the budget suffers; when oil rises, windfalls often misallocated. External shocks (like global inflation, currency swings or climate events) transmit pain to ordinary Nigerians.
Voices of Wake-Up Calls.
Economist Justin Yifu Lin has long argued that “inclusive growth is the key to poverty reduction.” Growth that excludes the common citizen is hollow growth. Meanwhile, Amartya Sen’s theory of capability expansion echoes here: for citizens to rise, policy must invest in education, health and social infrastructure; not just GDP.
In Nigeria’s context, former Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has repeatedly warned that currency stability, inflation control and domestic production are pillars without which reforms collapse.
And as George Omagbemi Sylvester has said: “You cannot borrow your way out of poverty. You must produce your way to prosperity.”
That maxim must guide Nigeria now more than ever. Borrowing to placate deficits is SELF-DELUSION if it does not seed productive industries or jobs.
The Bottom Line.
Nigeria now faces a dual calamity: its humanitarian fabric is fraying while its economic underpinnings wobble. Reports from Reuters and the World Bank confirm that despite apparent growth, millions suffer hunger, malnutrition and deprivation.
To salvage the future, Nigeria must bridge the gap between macro gains and human gains:
Scale up social protection for the most vulnerable with precision and integrity.
Mobilize domestic revenue, reduce leakages and reallocate spending toward education, health, agriculture and infrastructure.
Promote agricultural resiliency, support farmers in conflict zones, and shore up climate adaptation.
Incentivize productive investments and industries that create jobs, rather than depending on imports or debt.
Restore security and governance in fragile regions so development can take root.
The alternative is bleak, a nation producing numbers of growth on paper, but producing despair in the hearts of millions.
Let the reports from Reuters and the World Bank serve not as ominous forecasts but as urgent clarion calls. Nigeria’s moment is now; or the suffering deepens.
Riceocracy: When Tinubu and the APC Government Substitutes Governance with Handouts
By George Omagbemi Sylvester
“Tinubu’s administration faces mounting criticism as rice palliatives replace real solutions to Nigeria’s deepening crisis.”
ABUJA, Nigeria — March 17, 2026
A growing wave of public frustration is sweeping across Nigeria as citizens decry what has now been dubbed “Riceocracy” a governance pattern where the government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) respond to systemic failures with the distribution of rice rather than meaningful reforms.
Across the country, from major cities like Lagos and Abuja to underserved rural communities, Nigerians are voicing anger over persistent issues: no stable electricity, deteriorating road networks, unaffordable fuel and cooking gas, and a struggling education system. Yet, in response to these structural problems, the government’s most visible intervention has been the distribution of food palliatives; particularly rice.
The central figures in this unfolding crisis are President Tinubu and the APC-led federal and state governments, who have overseen the rollout of these relief measures. On the other side are millions of Nigerians battling rising inflation, joblessness, and declining living standards.
The trend gained momentum following the removal of fuel subsidies in May 2023, a policy decision by the Tinubu administration that triggered a surge in transportation and commodity prices. By 2024 and into 2025, the government intensified the distribution of rice and other palliatives as a stopgap measure to quell public discontent. Now, in 2026, the approach has become a defining feature of the administration’s response to economic hardship.
The “Riceocracy” phenomenon is nationwide. Reports from states such as Kano, Rivers, and Borno show large crowds gathering for rice distribution exercises, even as basic infrastructure continues to decay. Urban centers are not exempt; in cities like Lagos, residents still grapple with erratic power supply and high living costs despite periodic palliative programs.
Analysts point to political convenience and immediate optics. Distributing rice is quick, visible, and politically advantageous, especially in a climate of widespread hardship. However, critics argue that it reflects a deeper governance failure; an inability or unwillingness to implement long-term solutions.
Nobel laureate Wole Soyinka has long warned against superficial governance, describing such approaches as “a betrayal of democratic responsibility.” In the same vein, global economist Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has stressed that “palliatives may provide temporary relief, but they cannot replace sound economic management and structural reform.”
Political economist Pat Utomi offers a sharper critique: “A state that reduces its responsibility to food sharing risks institutionalizing poverty rather than eliminating it.” His statement captures the growing concern that Nigeria’s leadership is addressing symptoms rather than causes.
The implications are severe. Nigeria’s power sector remains unreliable, forcing businesses to depend on costly alternatives. Road infrastructure continues to hinder economic activity, while the education sector suffers from underfunding and frequent disruptions. Despite these challenges, rice distribution has become the most consistent government response.
Critics further argue that this strategy fosters dependency and weakens civic engagement. Instead of demanding accountability, citizens may feel compelled to accept handouts as substitutes for rights and services. Allegations of mismanagement and politicization of palliative distribution also persist, raising questions about transparency and fairness.
The term “Riceocracy” may sound satirical, but it reflects a sobering reality. It highlights a governance model where survival replaces development, and where public policy is reduced to emergency relief rather than strategic planning.
As Nigeria marks this moment on March 17, 2026, the message from scholars, civil society, and frustrated citizens is unmistakable: rice cannot fix a broken system. Only deliberate investments in infrastructure, education, energy, and economic productivity can restore confidence and chart a sustainable path forward.
Until then, the image of Nigerians queuing for bags of rice will remain a stark symbol of a nation still searching for leadership that goes beyond palliatives to deliver real progress.
ZENITH BANK OPENS MANCHESTER BRANCH TO SUPPORT CROSS-BORDER TRADE AND INVESTMENT
Zenith Bank Plc has announced the opening of a new branch in Manchester, United Kingdom, marking another significant milestone in the bank’s international growth and its commitment to strengthening financial connections between Africa and global markets.
The official opening ceremony, scheduled to hold on Tuesday, March 17, 2026, is expected to attract government officials from Nigeria and the United Kingdom, regulators, investors, customers, and business leaders from both countries, underscoring the growing economic ties and investment opportunities between the two markets.
The new Manchester branch will complement Zenith Bank’s existing operations in the United Kingdom and serve as a strategic hub for supporting businesses engaged in international trade and investment. Through the branch, the bank will provide corporate banking, trade finance, treasury and related financial services to clients operating across the United Kingdom, Europe and Africa.Speaking ahead of the launch, the Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Zenith Bank Plc, Dame Dr. Adaora Umeoji, OON, said: “The opening of our Manchester branch represents another important step in Zenith Bank’s growth as a leading African financial institution connecting businesses and markets across continents. Manchester is one of the United Kingdom’s most dynamic commercial centres, and our presence here will further strengthen financial connections between businesses in the UK and opportunities across Africa’s rapidly expanding markets.
”Founded in 1990 by its Founder and Chairman, Jim Ovia, CFR, Zenith Bank has grown into one of Africa’s most respected banking institutions, boasting a robust capital base and a remarkable history of year-on-year profitability. Built on a strong foundation of people, technology and service, the Bank has consistently delivered innovative financial solutions while maintaining a disciplined approach to growth and risk management. The impressive performance of the Bank has consistently earned it excellent ratings, recognition and endorsement from local and international agencies and institutions.Headquartered in Lagos, Nigeria, Zenith Bank operates over 500 branches and business offices across the 36 States of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The Bank currently operates subsidiaries in several African countries including Ghana, Sierra Leone, Gambia, and Cote d’Ivoire, while maintaining a presence in major international financial centres including the United Kingdom, France, UAE and China.
In recent years, Zenith Bank has continued to expand its international network as part of its strategy to support global trade and investment flows involving Africa.Manchester, widely regarded as one of the United Kingdom’s most vibrant economic centres, hosts a diverse base of businesses across sectors such as manufacturing, engineering, logistics, technology and consumer goods. The city’s strong commercial ecosystem and international outlook align closely with Zenith Bank’s expertise in corporate banking, structured finance and trade finance.The Manchester branch will work closely with the Bank’s London operations and its broader international network to support clients seeking to expand across markets and unlock new opportunities in both the United Kingdom and Africa.
With the opening of the Manchester branch, Zenith Bank continues to advance its vision of building a truly global African banking institution that connects businesses, facilitates trade and investment, and creates stronger economic bridges between Africa and the world.
Business
New Petrol Import Permits May Reverse Nigeria’s Push for Domestic Refining and Increase Pressure on Foreign Reserve” — Energy Policy Group Tells President Tinubu
*“New Petrol Import Permits May Reverse Nigeria’s Push for Domestic Refining and Increase Pressure on Foreign Reserve” — Energy Policy Group Tells President Tinubu*
An energy policy group has advised President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to reconsider the wider economic consequences of newly issued permits allowing marketers to import petrol into the country, warning that the move could undermine Nigeria’s efforts to strengthen domestic refining and stabilise the economy.
In a statement released on Sunday in Abuja, the Energy Transparency and Market Justice Initiative (ETMJI) said the approvals granted by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) could produce unintended consequences if not carefully managed.
The group’s president, Dr. Salako Kareem, said Nigeria was at a delicate moment in its energy transition and that policy choices made now would determine whether the country finally escapes its decades-long dependence on imported refined petroleum products.
Kareem said while the regulator’s responsibility to guarantee adequate fuel supply is understood, expanding import permissions at this stage could weaken the policy direction required to encourage local production and long-term sector stability.
“Our respectful appeal to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is that decisions concerning petrol importation must be carefully weighed against their long-term economic consequences,” Kareem said.
“Nigeria has spent decades trying to overcome the paradox of being a major crude oil producer while relying heavily on imported refined products. Any policy action that appears to reopen the floodgates of importation may slow down the progress that has been made toward strengthening domestic refining capacity.”
He warned that increasing petrol imports could place additional pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves, especially at a time when the government is pursuing difficult economic reforms aimed at stabilising the naira and improving fiscal discipline.
“For many years, the country has lost enormous volumes of foreign exchange importing petroleum products that could ideally be refined locally,” Kareem said.
“If import volumes begin to rise again, the demand for foreign currency will inevitably grow. This could place renewed strain on the naira and undermine the broader economic stabilisation programme that the government is currently pursuing.”
The group also warned that excessive reliance on imported petrol could create opportunities for product dumping and the entry of substandard fuel into the Nigerian market, a challenge that has troubled regulators and consumers in the past.
According to Kareem, Nigeria’s downstream sector has historically struggled with quality control issues whenever importation becomes widespread, because imported fuel often travels through multiple intermediaries before reaching domestic depots.
“One of the lessons from the past is that when imports dominate the supply chain, the market sometimes becomes vulnerable to the dumping of inferior petroleum products,” he said.
“This not only creates regulatory complications but also exposes Nigerian consumers to fuels that may damage vehicles, affect industrial machinery and ultimately impose hidden economic costs on the country.”
He added that encouraging domestic refining and strengthening local supply chains would provide better product traceability and improve overall market transparency.
Kareem stressed that the group’s intervention was not intended as criticism of the NMDPRA, noting that regulators must often make complex decisions to prevent supply disruptions in a volatile energy market.
However, he urged the federal government to ensure that short-term supply management does not weaken long-term national objectives in the petroleum sector.
“We recognise that the regulator has the responsibility to ensure that Nigerians do not experience fuel shortages, and that duty is extremely important,” he said.
“But at the same time, policy coherence is essential. The country must avoid sending signals that could discourage investment in local refining or create uncertainty about Nigeria’s commitment to energy self-sufficiency.”
Kareem said Nigeria now has a rare opportunity to restructure its downstream petroleum industry in a way that strengthens domestic production, protects foreign exchange reserves and builds long-term industrial capacity.
He urged the president to ensure that the country’s regulatory framework reflects that strategic vision.
“Our appeal is simply for policy alignment. If Nigeria truly wants to build a resilient energy economy, then every major decision in the downstream sector must reinforce the goal of reducing import dependence, strengthening domestic production and protecting the country’s economic stability,” Kareem noted.
The group added that careful policy coordination between regulators and the presidency would help ensure that Nigeria avoids repeating the costly fuel import cycles that have historically drained public resources and weakened the national economy.
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