Business
Crisis on Multiple Fronts: Reuters & World Bank Expose Nigeria’s Humanitarian and Economic Collapse.
Crisis on Multiple Fronts: Reuters & World Bank Expose Nigeria’s Humanitarian and Economic Collapse.
By George Omagbemi Sylvester | SaharaWeeklyNG.com
“Record hunger. Surging inflation. A nation on the edge.”
In Nigeria today, the line between economic distress and humanitarian catastrophe is vanishing. Reports from Reuters and the World Bank paint a dire Tableau which millions are teetering on the brink, besieged by food insecurity, inflation, fiscal strain and systemic fragility. This is not a distant crisis; but the lived reality for many Nigerians.
Humanitarian Alarm Bells: Hunger, Displacement and Aid Droughts.
The United Nations now warns that nearly 31 million Nigerians are experiencing acute food insecurity, an ominous figure equivalent to the population of a MEDIUM-SIZED COUNTRY. This is not due to lack of need; but to a catastrophic shortfall in humanitarian funding. The World Food Programme (WFP) has sounded the alarm that cuts in aid will force over 1.3 million Nigerians to lose essential food support.
In northeastern Nigeria (a conflict-scarred zone already battered by insurgency) over 150 nutrition clinics are at risk of closure, placing 300,000 children at danger of severe malnutrition, while 700,000 displaced persons could be left without vital support. These are not abstractions; they are children whose next meal is uncertain, mothers watching their infants fade, families torn from their lands. The humanitarian safety net has holes wide enough to swallow entire communities.
Memory of past disasters haunts the present. In 2024, raging floods displaced millions, destroyed crops and worsened nutrition deficits; especially among subsistence farmers. In conflict zones, the devastation multiplies: fields lie fallow, trade routes shut and supply chains collapse.
One recent empirical study in Benue State confirms a grim truth, insecurity reduces agricultural output directly. The researchers found that even a modest rise in insecurity correlates with a 0.211% drop in crop yields and 0.311% drop in livestock output. In other words, violence is not a side effect but a contributor.
Amid this dearth of aid, the USAID decision to slash support in northeastern Nigeria amounts to a lifeline being yanked away. Over 90% of key foreign aid contracts were terminated, pushing relief operations to the brink. In Dikwa and other displaced persons sites, malnutrition and mortality climb while humanitarian actors pull back.
Economic Realities: Growth with Broken Bones.
In the economic realm, the World Bank and Reuters both register a paradox whereby Nigeria’s GDP is showing signs of recovery, yet the masses are sinking further.
According to Reuters, the Nigerian economy posted its fastest growth in a decade during 2024, with a 4.6% expansion in the final quarter. The Bank projects a more tempered 3.6% growth in 2025. Yet this growth is brittle. Inflation remains entrenched (especially in food prices) and the purchasing power of ordinary Nigerians continues to erode. The World Bank describes inflation as a “BURDEN,” warning that lower oil prices are offset by rising costs of imports.
The Nigerian fiscal deficit is projected at 2.6% of GDP in 2025, nearly unchanged from 2024, while public debt (once a pressing risk) may decline slightly from 42.9% to 39.8% of GDP. Mathew Verghis, World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, said that while government steps to stabilize the economy are beginning to pay dividends, the relief has yet to reach the most vulnerable.
Still, the structural contradictions are stark. Economic gains are tilted toward sectors like finance, ICT and transport, with limited spin-off into jobs and livelihoods. As the World Bank notes, employment alone is not enough, what matters are productive jobs.
Reuters furthermore reports that Nigeria’s Finance Minister, Wale Edun, has publicly admitted that the country must double its growth rate in the next year or two to plausibly reduce poverty. That is no small ask, yet the stakes could not be higher.
The Human Cost Behind the Numbers.
Between 2018/19 and 2024, an estimated 45 million additional Nigerians slipped into poverty, bringing the share of Nigerians below the poverty line to roughly 47%. In rural areas, poverty is pervasive; over three in four rural dwellers now live in poverty, while in urban centers more than two in five do so. Meanwhile, food inflation continues to ravage the poor. Poor households (whose limited budgets allocate up to 70% toward food) bear the brunt. The Jollof Index, a clever food-price tracker in Nigeria, spotlights how basic meals have become prohibitively expensive such as rice, tomatoes, onions, protein and oil prices have all surged in ways that outpace general inflation.
As Reuters captured, even with improving macroeconomic indicators, high food prices remain a heavy burden on vulnerable Nigerians. Now add to that regional inequality, insecurity and dysfunctional social programs and what you have is a perfect storm.
Structural Fault Lines: Why Growth Failed the Poor.
1. Weak revenue mobilization & fiscal misalignment.
Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio hovers near 10.9%, placing it far behind peer African economies like South Africa or Rwanda. While new tax reforms (e.g. higher VAT) are floating in policy circles, they face resistance and especially from states wary of federal revenue allocations.
Government spending is misaligned, sectors most essential to human development (Education, Health, Agriculture) are underfunded. Security claims a large slice of the budget, while agriculture and social infrastructure receive paltry allocations.
2. Ineffective social protection.
The World Bank repeatedly calls attention to the need to protect the poor and economically insecure by strengthening social protection frameworks. Yet implementation is weak-poor targeting, late payments, leakages and insufficient scale mean many fall through the cracks.
3. Insecurity & climate risk.
Insurgency, banditry, farmer-herder conflict and environmental degradation strike hardest in Nigeria’s least resilient states. The loss in agricultural output, displacement of farming households and fracturing of supply chains all deepen humanitarian hardships.
4. Uneven growth.
Growth has failed to be inclusive. Gains cluster in urban, capital-intensive sectors. Rural areas, especially in the North and Northeast, see scant trickle-down. The divide between those benefiting and those excluded grows wider each year.
5. Dependence on oil & external shocks.
Despite being oil-rich, Nigeria’s overdependence on hydrocarbon exports makes it vulnerable to swings in global prices. When oil dips, the budget suffers; when oil rises, windfalls often misallocated. External shocks (like global inflation, currency swings or climate events) transmit pain to ordinary Nigerians.
Voices of Wake-Up Calls.
Economist Justin Yifu Lin has long argued that “inclusive growth is the key to poverty reduction.” Growth that excludes the common citizen is hollow growth. Meanwhile, Amartya Sen’s theory of capability expansion echoes here: for citizens to rise, policy must invest in education, health and social infrastructure; not just GDP.
In Nigeria’s context, former Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has repeatedly warned that currency stability, inflation control and domestic production are pillars without which reforms collapse.
And as George Omagbemi Sylvester has said: “You cannot borrow your way out of poverty. You must produce your way to prosperity.”
That maxim must guide Nigeria now more than ever. Borrowing to placate deficits is SELF-DELUSION if it does not seed productive industries or jobs.
The Bottom Line.
Nigeria now faces a dual calamity: its humanitarian fabric is fraying while its economic underpinnings wobble. Reports from Reuters and the World Bank confirm that despite apparent growth, millions suffer hunger, malnutrition and deprivation.
To salvage the future, Nigeria must bridge the gap between macro gains and human gains:
Scale up social protection for the most vulnerable with precision and integrity.
Mobilize domestic revenue, reduce leakages and reallocate spending toward education, health, agriculture and infrastructure.
Promote agricultural resiliency, support farmers in conflict zones, and shore up climate adaptation.
Incentivize productive investments and industries that create jobs, rather than depending on imports or debt.
Restore security and governance in fragile regions so development can take root.
The alternative is bleak, a nation producing numbers of growth on paper, but producing despair in the hearts of millions.
Let the reports from Reuters and the World Bank serve not as ominous forecasts but as urgent clarion calls. Nigeria’s moment is now; or the suffering deepens.
Bank
Fidelity Bank grows gross earnings by 38% to N434.95b in Q1
Fidelity Bank grows gross earnings by 38% to N434.95b in Q1
Fidelity Bank Plc recorded 37.9 per cent growth in gross earnings to N434.95 billion in first quarter 2026 as the international commercial bank continued to expand its core banking market share.
Interim report and accounts of Fidelity Bank for the three months ended March 31, 2026 released at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) showed that gross earnings rose from N315.42 billion in first quarter 20025 to N434.95 billion in first quarter 2026, representing an increase of 37.9 per cent.
The top-line performance was driven by impressive growth in the bank’s core business operations with interest incomes rising by 22.8 per cent to N314.48 billion in first quarter 2026 as against N256.10 billion in first quarter 2025.
With net interest income at N180.97 billion, the bank closed the period with profit before tax of N92.48 billion. After taxes, net profit stood at N74.47 billion for the three-month period. Earnings per share remained high at N5.69, underlining the capacity of the bank to reward its shareholders.
The balance sheet of the bank also emerged stronger. Total assets crossed the N11 trillion mark to N11.35 trillion by March 2026 compared with N10.46 trillion recorded in December 2025. Customers’ deposits increased from N6.89 trillion to N7.38 trillion. Total equity rode on the back of earnings growth to a 27.5 per cent increase from N1.09 trillion in December 2025 to N1.39 trillion by March 2026.
The first quarter 2026 results further consolidated the strong earnings outlook of the bank, which had successfully completed its recapitalisation amidst impressive earnings performance in 2025.
Fidelity Bank had recorded double-digit growths in interest and non-interest incomes as well as key balance sheet items during the year ended December 31, 2025.
The audited report showed that gross earnings rose from N1.04 trillion in 2024 to N1.52 trillion in 2025, an increase of 45.6 per cent. Interest and similar incomes had grown by 38.7 per cent from N803.1 billion in 2024 to N1.11 trillion in 2025. Fees and commission incomes also rose by 44.7 per cent from N78.4 billion to N113.4 billion. The bank recorded net profit after tax of N242.4 billion in 2025.
The bank’s balance sheet emerged stronger with total assets rising by 18.6 per cent to N10.46 trillion in 2025 as against N8.82 trillion in 2024. Customer deposits increased by 16.1 per cent from N5.94 trillion to N6.89 trillion, reflecting continued franchise strength and an improved funding profile. Net loans and advances meanwhile declined by 2.4 per cent to N4.28 trillion in 2025 as against N4.39 trillion in 2024, attributable to customers paying down on their mature obligations.
The bank had in 2025 strengthened its capital position, with eligible capital rising to N561 billion, above the regulatory minimum of N500 billion for banks with international authorisation. In addition, capital adequacy had remained robust, with Capital Adequacy Ratio of 30.94 per cent by December 2025 as against 23.47 per cent by December 2024.
Managing Director, Fidelity Bank Plc, Dr. Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, said the first quarter 2026 results reinforced the bank’s strong and resilient business model.
She noted that with the remarkable success of its recapitalisation programme and continuing expansion, Fidelity Bank has entered a new era of growth and impressive returns.
“We are on a stronger footing and confident that we will set new growth records that are reflective of our legacy and the future we are working on,” Onyeali-Ikpe said.
Business
Dangote Refinery Ends Nigeria’s Era of Fuel Import Dependence, Boosts GDP, FX Earnings — EIU
Dangote Refinery Ends Nigeria’s Era of Fuel Import Dependence, Boosts GDP, FX Earnings — EIU
The operational ramp up of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals is fundamentally reshaping Nigeria’s downstream oil sector, significantly reducing the country’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products and strengthening its external position, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
In its latest assessment on Nigeria’s fuel market and regulatory environment, the EIU said the refinery has already transformed a sector that was previously characterised by heavy reliance on imported fuel despite Nigeria being Africa’s largest crude oil producer. The report noted that the refinery met nearly 80 per cent of domestic petrol demand in April and produced enough volumes to satisfy local consumption requirements as operations approached full capacity.
The EIU described Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector before the refinery as “long dysfunctional”, noting that the country had remained almost entirely dependent on costly imported fuel while producing nearly 1.5 million barrels of crude oil daily.
According to the report, the emergence of the refinery has reduced import dependence, improved domestic fuel availability and strengthened Nigeria’s balance of payments position through lower import demand and rising exports of refined petroleum products.
“The gradual ramp up of the 650,000 barrel/day Dangote refinery since May 2023 has transformed Nigeria’s long dysfunctional downstream sector,” the report stated. “The country’s main refineries, all state owned, had been inoperative for years and Nigeria was almost entirely reliant on costly imported fuel.”
The research and analysis division of The Economist Group, London added that the refinery’s attainment of full operational capacity and its planned expansion would further support Nigeria’s economic growth and foreign exchange earnings over the medium term.
“Meanwhile, the attainment of full capacity at, and an increase in exports from, the Dangote refinery will support real GDP growth and foreign exchange earnings in 2026 and 2027 and beyond, as a planned doubling of the plant’s output comes on stream around the end of the decade,” it added.
Industry analysts said the refinery is increasingly positioning Nigeria as an emerging refining and export hub, altering energy trade flows across Africa and reducing the vulnerability associated with fuel import dependence.
The EIU noted that the refinery’s expansion has coincided with major reforms in Nigeria’s downstream sector, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the introduction of market driven pricing mechanisms.
The report, however, said the transition from a state dominated fuel import structure to large scale domestic refining has triggered resistance from interests linked to the old import regime.
The latest tensions emerged following the decision by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to relax restrictions on petrol imports despite the refinery’s growing capacity to meet domestic demand.
Dangote Industries subsequently initiated legal action, arguing that continued import approvals undermine domestic refining investments and conflict with the objectives of the Petroleum Industry Act, which seeks to encourage local refining capacity and reduce import dependence.
Analysts noted that the availability of large-scale domestic refining capacity has improved Nigeria’s energy security and reduced exposure to external supply shocks and foreign exchange volatility.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise also cautioned against unrestrained importation of petroleum products, warning that such a policy could weaken Nigeria’s industrialisation drive and discourage investments in domestic refining.
Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, Muda Yusuf, said continued dependence on imported fuel had historically contributed to pressure on foreign reserves, exchange rate instability and fiscal leakages.
The refinery’s growing impact is also being reflected in Nigeria’s broader macroeconomic indicators. Earlier this month, S&P Global Ratings cited increased domestic refining capacity and rising hydrocarbon exports among the major factors supporting Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating upgrade – the first in 14 years.
Beyond Nigeria, analysts said the refinery is increasingly being viewed as a strategic industrial asset for Africa, where many countries remain heavily dependent on imported fuel despite rising demand for transportation, manufacturing, and power generation.
Business
BREAKING: Court Dismisses $19.6 Million Claim Against NNPCL — Rules Contract Scope Cannot Be Changed Orally
BREAKING: Court Dismisses $19.6 Million Claim Against NNPCL — Rules Contract Scope Cannot Be Changed Orally
In a landmark ruling on Friday, May 22, 2026, the Federal Capital Territory High Court in Abuja threw out a $19.6 million lawsuit filed by Alternate Dimensions Ventures Ltd against the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), affirming a key legal principle: a written contract cannot be expanded through oral agreements or conduct.
Alternate Dimensions had sought $19,600,000 in professional fees, claiming the scope of its Direct Sale, Direct Purchase (DSDP e-pro) contract with NNPCL was orally expanded. Represented by counsel Patrick Peter, the firm argued it was entitled to the revised sum for services rendered under the alleged new terms.
But NNPCL, through its lawyer Ituah Imhanze of KENNA LP, pushed back sharply, arguing that parties are bound exclusively by the clear terms of their written agreement. Imhanze contended that without any written amendment, the claim was legally unsound, and the court agreed.
Delivering judgment, Justice Hamza Mu’azu upheld NNPCL’s defense, stating that the contract was unambiguous and that no evidence was adduced during the trial, which supported the alleged scope expansion. The court further found that NNPCL fully complied with all contractual terms and committed no breach.
Dismissing the suit as meritless, Justice Mu’azu reinforced the doctrine of sanctity of contract: any amendment to a written agreement must be express, unequivocal, and documented, not implied or verbal.
The ruling spares NNPCL from the S19.6 million claim and also a floodgate of similar potential liabilities.
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