Politics
Fear and Fascism: Why Nigeria’s Ruling Class Fears the ADC Coalition
Fear and Fascism: Why Nigeria’s Ruling Class Fears the ADC Coalition.
By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by SaharaWeeklyNG.com
In a nation purportedly run under the rule of law, democratic principles and political plurality, what do we call a situation where a government becomes jittery at the mere announcement of a coalition? Where security agencies begin targeting event centres simply because opposition figures are gathering? Where fresh factions are immediately stirred within a party the coalition adopts? One word fits perfectly: TYRANNY.
The recent surge of fear and panic within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) over the African Democratic Congress (ADC) Coalition for Revolution is not only suspicious; it is shameful and undemocratic. The coalition is barely operational, yet the reaction from the ruling establishment has been alarmingly disproportionate. This government appears terrified; not of GUNS, not of WAR, but of UNITY. It tells us one thing: the ruling party knows its time is up.
The FRAGILE Ego of POWER.
For a party that has consistently boasted of controlling the majority of state governors, National Assembly members and even local government chairpersons, why then is the APC so rattled by a coalition of frustrated opposition elements and civil society actors? Why is the federal government deploying intimidation tactics rather than welcoming political competition as a hallmark of democracy?
In a sane and functioning democracy, opposition coalitions are celebrated as a sign of political maturity. In Nigeria, it has become a crime to think differently or organize legitimately. Even the event centre billed to host the ADC Coalition unveiling was allegedly threatened with closure by unnamed agents of the state; a pattern disturbingly reminiscent of military dictatorship.
A Government That Knows It Has Failed
This fear is not accidental. It is born from guilt, failure and the burden of unmet promises. Nigeria under the APC has become a global embarrassment. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, over 133 million Nigerians are living in multidimensional poverty. Unemployment is at a record high, with youth unemployment hovering around 53%, while inflation has crossed the 34% mark as of June 2025.
Why wouldn’t the ruling party fear a coalition when the people are angry, the economy is crashing and even their own governors are silently defecting or disassociating themselves from the party’s failures?
The recent wave of governors defecting to the ruling party is not out of loyalty or ideological alignment; it is pure political survival. These governors are seeking to avoid the EFCC knock on their gates or to secure future ambitions. Beneath these defections, the ordinary people are still suffering, and this suffering is what the ADC Coalition seeks to confront.
Manufactured Factions: A Classic APC Playbook
Immediately after the coalition adopted the ADC as its political platform, a mysterious faction emerged claiming to be the “real ADC.” Sound familiar? That is the APC’s classic destabilization strategy. In the past, we saw the same tactic used against the PDP, the Labour Party and even internal dissenters within APC itself. Once a political party shows promise or dares to stand against the status quo, the ruling party sends in their agents to create chaos, confusion and fake leadership tussles.
According to Professor Jibrin Ibrahim, a renowned political scientist and columnist, “The Nigerian political elite thrives on destabilizing alternatives. Any emerging force that can inspire the people becomes an automatic enemy of the state.”
This is not democracy. This is fascism; where government manipulates everything from the judiciary to the police and now even private venues just to hold on to power.
Fear of a United People
Perhaps what scares this government the most is not the ADC Coalition in itself, but the idea of it, the possibility of Nigerian youths, professionals, disenchanted politicians and civil society organizations standing on one platform to say “ENOUGH is ENOUGH.”
For the first time in years, the ADC Coalition is bridging the ethnic, religious and regional divides that have been used as weapons of control. The coalition is becoming a symbol of collective frustration and national unity. It is not just another political party; it is an uprising in suits and sandals.
To quote Femi Falana (SAN), a fearless human rights advocate, “You can cage people with poverty, but the day they unite, your billion naira mansion won’t save you.”
The Real Reason Behind the Crackdown
So why did the government move to frustrate the ADC Coalition unveiling? It SEES the WRITING on the WALL. It FEARS what will happen when Nigerians stop fighting each other and begin fighting back at their real oppressors. It FEARS the embarrassment of facing a coalition that is not built on rigging, godfatherism or bullion vans, but on IDEAS, INTEGRITY and COURAGE.
Just like they feared the EndSARS protesters, this government fears anything ORGANIC, POPULAR and PEOPLE-DRIVEN. They FEAR history repeating itself. They FEAR the candlelight that could start a bonfire of POLITICAL REVOLUTION.
Even more, they FEAR that the upcoming 2027 elections may no longer be business as usual.
The Hypocrisy of the APC’s Power Grab.
Let us not forget: APC itself was a coalition. It came to power in 2015 through the merger of CPC, ACN, ANPP and factions of APGA and PDP. Yet, today, they are violently allergic to coalitions. Isn’t that the height of hypocrisy?
What changed? POWER did. The APC no longer wants fair elections. They now believe in “CAPTURE and CONQUER.” They FEAR the very process that birthed them because they know they can no longer win in a FREE and FAIR contest.
Now, they have resorted to bullying, suppression and faction-planting because they know that if Nigerians are given real options, they will choose competence over corruption, empathy over empire and revolution over repression.
The Road Ahead: Power to the People.
If the ruling party thinks it can stop this revolution by sabotaging an event venue or promoting fake factions, it is grossly underestimating the anger in the land. Nigerians are not just hungry for food; they are starving for justice, governance and accountability.
Let it be known: REVOLUTIONS don’t need air-conditioned halls. They don’t need television coverage. They only need one spark and the ADC Coalition may just be that spark.
In the words of Thomas Sankara, “You cannot kill ideas. Ideas don’t die.” And no amount of intimidation, propaganda or betrayal can kill the idea that Nigeria deserves better.
Final Thought on This.
The fear exhibited by this government is a sign of WEAKNESS not STRENGTH. It is a loud confession that they have lost the people. History has shown us that when a government loses the people, its end is near.
Let the ruling elite tremble. Let their agents panic. The ADC Coalition is not their biggest problem. The Nigerian people are.
Let the REVOLUTION begin.
Written by George Omagbemi Sylvester
Published by SaharaWeeklyNG.com
Nigerians, Are You Better Than You Were Two Years Ago?
By Gbenga Shaba
In 2025, a critical question resonates across Nigeria: “Am I better off today than I was yesterday?” For the vast majority of Nigerians, this is not a rhetorical exercise but a stark, lived reality, whispered in homes fractured by hunger and screamed in the silent desperation of stalled ambitions. From the bustling arteries of Lagos to the tranquil villages of Lafia, the answer, tragically, is a resounding no. Since the return to democratic governance in 1999, despite five presidents promising a brighter dawn, each new regime seems to bring less hope and more profound hardship.
The very essence of democracy, upon which its foundations were laid in 1999, promised something profoundly transformative: a demonstrably better life. This envisioned reality was not abstract; it meant the assurance of food on the table, consistent electricity, affordable healthcare, quality education, and jobs that could cover essential expenses and leave a little for life’s simple pleasures. Instead, Nigerians have largely received a relentless succession of economic experiments, a recurring drama surrounding fuel subsidies that consistently ends in public pain, a notoriously fragile national currency, and a poverty rate that has ballooned to alarming and unprecedented levels.
Empirical Comparisons Of Key Economic Indicators Across Administrations
Empirical comparisons of key economic indicators across administrations reveal a consistently worsening pattern for the average citizen. A single litre of petrol now commands a price that, for many, exceeds a worker’s entire daily wage. In 1999, a litre of petrol cost approximately eleven naira. In 2025, that same litre costs well over seven hundred naira, a staggering sixty-threefold increase. The Nigerian naira, once trading at a relatively stable eighty to the United States dollar in 1999, now fluctuates precariously around one thousand four hundred and fifty to one thousand five hundred naira to the dollar, according to recent figures from financial markets. This represents an almost eighteenfold depreciation. As of July 2025, the naira trades around one thousand five hundred and twenty-eight naira to the dollar in the official window.
Inflation
Inflation, a voracious and unseen predator, devours incomes with the efficiency of termites in a wooden hut, leaving behind only the husks of diminished purchasing power. While hovering in single digits in 1999, the latest figures for May 2025 indicate headline inflation hovering around twenty-two point nine seven percent, with food inflation soaring to over forty percent. This means the cost of basic food items is increasing at an almost uncontrollable rate, eroding every gain. While the national minimum wage has nominally grown tenfold since 1999, now standing at thirty thousand naira, its real value has been devastatingly eroded by the relentless march of inflation. A nominal increase means little when purchasing power is decimated.
The Poverty Rate
The poverty rate, a stark measure of human well-being, has regrettably risen again. As of the latest multidimensional poverty index report, over one hundred and thirty-three million Nigerians, representing approximately sixty-three percent of the population, are now living in multidimensional poverty, lacking access to basic services and decent living standards.
This is not merely an economic crisis that can be neatly categorized within macroeconomic models. It is a profound national trauma etched onto the faces of its citizens. The cost of essential staples like rice and garri, the burden of transport fares, the escalating burden of rent, the prohibitive expense of school fees, and even the price of a sachet of water have multiplied severalfold in a short period. An average family in Kogi or Kano, which in 2005 could budget approximately five thousand naira for a week’s meals, now requires over thirty thousand naira to feed the same household. Chillingly, for this increased expenditure, the quality and nutritional value of the food consumed is often worse, a tragic testament to compromised living standards.
The current economic strain has become an oppressive weight, crushing aspirations and fostering widespread despair. Mrs Uzo, a mother in Aba, can no longer afford life-saving asthma medication for her young son. Tunde, a bright university graduate in Lagos, precariously sells phone accessories from a wheelbarrow, his dreams of a professional career indefinitely deferred. Amina, a widowed mother in Bauchi, makes the agonizing decision to skip meals herself so her children might at least have something to eat. These are the vivid and heart-wrenching realities and the raw, personal toll of abstract numbers and economic policies.
President Olusegun Obasanjo Vs Now
Under President Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999 to 2007, the administration embarked on broad and ambitious economic reforms. A landmark achievement was the successful negotiation of eighteen billion dollars in foreign debt relief through the Paris Club, significantly unburdening the national treasury. His tenure also oversaw the crucial consolidation of Nigeria’s banking sector. Perhaps most transformative was the advent of the telecom revolution, with GSM lines expanding explosively, birthing a dynamic new middle class. Macroeconomic stability was relatively sustained, inflation was managed, and real GDP demonstrated steady growth. The national minimum wage doubled, and poverty rates fell by a commendable eleven percentage points.
President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and President Goodluck Jonathan Vs Now
During the administration of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and President Goodluck Jonathan from 2007 to 2010, despite electoral controversy and illness, a significant achievement was the Niger Delta Amnesty Programme, which restored stability and crucial oil output. While ambitious reforms were not fully realized, the renewed focus on the rule of law offered hope. Economically, inflation rose, reaching eleven point five eight percent in 2008 and twelve point five four percent in 2009, while poverty spiked by eight percent.
From 2010 to 2015, President Goodluck Jonathan and Vice President Namadi Sambo oversaw a period when Nigeria experienced a surge in GDP growth, propelled by high global oil prices. A rebasing exercise positioned Nigeria as Africa’s largest economy. However, this impressive GDP growth did not fully translate into real prosperity for the majority, and inequality widened. The power sector privatization largely failed to deliver stable electricity, and the Occupy Nigeria movement in 2012 highlighted growing discontent over fuel subsidy removal. Despite these challenges, poverty did decline marginally, and the agricultural sector saw reforms. Youth-targeted programs like YouWin provided some relief.
President Muhammadu Buhari and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo Also?
The administration of President Muhammadu Buhari and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo from 2015 to 2023 was heralded by many as a messianic anti-corruption movement, promising sweeping changes. It recorded successes in mainstreaming social investments and other programs. Significant investments were made in infrastructure projects, and social intervention programs were implemented to alleviate poverty and unemployment. However, the initial dream of revitalization soon withered under a cascade of economic shocks. A precipitous crash in global oil prices in 2016 triggered Nigeria’s first recession in decades. By 2020, the unforeseen onslaught of the COVID-19 pandemic dealt another devastating blow, knocking the economy into yet another tailspin and marking two recessions within a single tenure. Inflation soared to unprecedented heights, becoming a daily torment for households. Jobs disappeared at an alarming rate, exacerbating an already dire unemployment crisis. The naira was devalued not once but twice over, further eroding purchasing power and making imports prohibitively expensive. The undeniable reality for the average Nigerian was one of increasing poverty, pervasive hunger, and a deepening sense of hopelessness. While the minimum wage was eventually raised to thirty thousand naira, it was swiftly outpaced by the relentless surge in food inflation and punitive fuel price hikes, rendering the increment almost immediately insufficient.
The last 2 years!
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima came into office in 2023 on the campaign theme of Renewed Hope. However, their administration’s immediate and simultaneous removal of the fuel subsidy and floating of the naira sent seismic shockwaves through the fragile economy. Within days, transport costs tripled, and the price of a common loaf of bread skyrocketed. Many families were forced to pull their children out of school. Markets emptied, and small businesses closed in droves. The economy, already bruised, began to fracture under the pressure.
The government maintains that these drastic measures are necessary pains that will eventually lead to broader prosperity. This argument is not new, but Nigerians are profoundly tired of deferred dreams and promises of future abundance that never materialize. The pressing question remains: how long must the poor wait for the promised benefits, and how much more suffering can be endured?
True reform, the kind that genuinely uplifts a nation, fundamentally puts its people first. It is not about abstract macroeconomic numbers or accolades from multilateral financial institutions. It is, first and foremost, about the tangible impact on the lives of ordinary citizens. A truly people-oriented leadership would embody a different approach. It would push for social equity, prioritize local content development, and champion grassroots empowerment. Where the current approach removes subsidies without adequate cushioning, a people-oriented leadership would meticulously sequence reforms, implementing robust safety nets and palliative measures. Where the naira has been fully floated, a people-oriented leadership would carefully protect strategic sectors and essential commodities from volatile market forces. And crucially, where blame is cast upon the past, a people-oriented leadership would believe in co-creating the future with the people through inclusive dialogue and participatory governance.
Economic Indicators
A Declining Trajectory
Empirical comparisons of key economic indicators across administrations reveal a consistently worsening pattern for the average citizen.
Petrol Price: A single litre of petrol now commands a price that, for many, exceeds a worker’s entire daily wage. In 1999, a litre of petrol cost approximately eleven Naira. In 2025, that same litre costs well over seven hundred Naira, a staggering sixty-three-fold increase.
Exchange Rate: The Nigerian Naira, once trading at a relatively stable eighty to the United States Dollar in 1999, now fluctuates precariously around one thousand four hundred and fifty to one thousand five hundred Naira to the dollar, according to recent figures from financial markets. This represents an almost eighteen-fold depreciation. As of July 2025, the Naira trades around one thousand five hundred and twenty-eight Naira to the dollar in the official window.
Inflation: Inflation, a voracious, unseen predator, devours incomes with the efficiency of termites in a wooden hut, leaving behind only the husks of diminished purchasing power. While hovering in single digits in 1999, the latest figures for May 2025 indicate headline inflation hovering around twenty-two point nine-seven percent, with food inflation soaring to over forty percent. This means the cost of basic food items is increasing at an almost uncontrollable rate, eroding every gain.
Minimum Wage: While the national minimum wage has nominally grown tenfold since 1999, now standing at thirty thousand Naira, its real value has been devastatingly eroded by the relentless march of inflation. A nominal increase means little when purchasing power is decimated.
Poverty Rate: The poverty rate, a stark measure of human well-being, has regrettably risen again. As of the latest multidimensional poverty index report, over one hundred and thirty-three million Nigerians, representing approximately sixty-three percent of the population, are now living in multidimensional poverty, lacking access to basic services and living standards.
The difference is crystal clear. One governs with an eye on the boardroom. The other governs for the marketplace, for the common man and woman, for the struggling family. As 2025 unfolds, the fundamental question persists, demanding an answer. Ask the mechanic in Minna, the teacher in Ikare, or the tomato seller in Mile Twelve. Their answer, spoken in the language of hunger and hardship, is tragically and unambiguously the same: no, we are not better off.
Until Nigeria consistently and genuinely puts its people first, it will remain trapped in a disheartening cycle of unfulfilled promises. Genuine change is not merely about new faces in power. It is about an unwavering focus on serving the people those numbers are meant to represent and uplift. The true measure of a nation’s progress lies not in its statistical achievements but in the tangible improvement of the lives of its most vulnerable citizens. Only then can the answer to that profound question finally be a resounding and joyous yes.
Gbenga Shaba is a journalist and an analyst from Lagos State, Nigeria.
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