*Nigeria on the Path to a One-Party State Under Tinubu and the APC:* The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

By George Omagbemi Sylvester

Nigeria, is drifting perilously close to what analysts fear may become a one-party state under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The signs are glaring, the tactics aggressive, and the implications for national cohesion and democratic plurality are both ominous and disturbing. How did the nation that once celebrated the peaceful handover of power from one political party to another in 2015 fall so quickly into the hands of what increasingly resembles a democratic autocracy?

*How Did We Get Here?*

The seeds of one-party dominance were sown in 2015 when the APC, a coalition of opposition groups and defectors from the then-ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), defeated Goodluck Jonathan’s administration. For the first time in Nigeria’s history, an incumbent president lost an election and conceded defeat peacefully. It was hailed as a democratic triumph, but it masked a deeper problem Nigeria’s political elite were not changing values; they were changing jerseys.

Since then, the APC, especially under the baton of Tinubu who was widely regarded as the party’s kingmaker before ascending to the presidency has worked tirelessly to consolidate power not only through elections but through intimidation, co-optation, and manipulation. The weakening of opposition parties through defection inducements, selective prosecutions using anti-corruption agencies, and calculated political appointments has deepened concerns.

Professor Jibrin Ibrahim, a renowned political scientist, warned in 2024 that, _”Nigeria is not witnessing democratic consolidation but rather democratic contraction. The shrinking of political space is deliberate and dangerous.”_ His warning rings louder today than ever.

*The Good* : Is There Any Benefit?

In theory, one-party dominance can offer some benefits a streamlined policy agenda, reduced political gridlock, and faster implementation of development projects. Some proponents argue that in a country as divided and chaotic as Nigeria, the centralization of authority could bring stability. The Tinubu administration points to its push for fuel subsidy removal, infrastructural upgrades, and a unified foreign exchange regime as examples of decisive action made possible by its political leverage.

However, even these policies have triggered severe economic dislocations, including hyperinflation, job losses, and the devaluation of the naira. In essence, speed without deliberation has proven counterproductive.

Dr. Obiageli Ezekwesili, former Minister of Education and co-founder of Transparency International, put it succinctly: _”Efficiency without accountability is the fast lane to elite capture and mass disempowerment.”_

*The Bad*:Collapse of Opposition and Press Freedom

One of the worst signs of democratic erosion is the annihilation of viable opposition. The PDP, once the continent’s largest party, is now a shell of its former self, divided by internal strife and weakened by state-backed pressure. Smaller parties like the Labour Party and NNPP are routinely harassed, with their rallies disrupted, finances scrutinized, and leaders vilified.

The 2023 general elections, which brought Tinubu to power, were marred by widespread reports of voter suppression, ballot box snatching, and electoral malpractice. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), once seen as a beacon of reform, suffered a credibility collapse.

Additionally, the media is under siege. Critical journalists are detained under archaic laws, and media houses are threatened with closure. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), Nigeria in 2024 ranked among the top five countries in Africa for press intimidation.

*The Ugly* : Democratic Autocracy in Action

Bola Tinubu’s presidency is increasingly resembling a civilian dictatorship. Political dissent is stifled, civil society groups are under surveillance, and judicial independence is being eroded. The president’s frequent foreign trips amidst domestic turmoil signal a troubling detachment from the realities faced by everyday Nigerians.

What is worse is the normalization of autocratic behavior under the guise of reform. Appointments are no longer based on merit but on loyalty. State institutions from the EFCC to the DSS are weaponized against political opponents.

_”Democracy is not merely the right to vote every four years,”_ warned Kenyan legal scholar P.L.O. Lumumba, _”it is the right to participate meaningfully in a free society.”_ Nigeria, unfortunately, is veering away from this principle.

*The Nemesis:* Consequences of Centralized Power

The consequences of a de facto one-party state are devastating. First, it breeds apathy among citizens. Voter turnout in the 2023 elections was just 27%, the lowest since 1999. People have lost faith in the system. Second, it marginalizes minority voices, both ethnically and politically. Nigeria is too pluralistic to be ruled by one ideology.

Third, it creates a patronage system where only the connected thrive, further widening the inequality gap. A World Bank report in late 2024 noted that over 70% of Nigeria’s wealth is concentrated in the hands of just 5% of the population.

Professor Wole Soyinka, Nobel Laureate, lamented recently, _”A nation that surrenders its democracy to a single party loses its soul.”_

*What Can Be Done?*

The path forward requires courageous, collective action:

Strengthening Institutions: INEC must be depoliticized and granted full autonomy to conduct credible elections. Electoral reform is non-negotiable.

Opposition Unity: The PDP, Labour Party, and others must forge alliances, not just to win power but to restore democratic balance.

Civic Education: Citizens must be educated on the dangers of political apathy and the importance of participatory governance.

Media Protection: Journalists must be protected under law, and press freedom must be sacrosanct.

International Oversight: ECOWAS, AU, and global watchdogs must speak out and intervene diplomatically where necessary.

*The Price of Silence*

Nigeria stands at a dangerous crossroads. The allure of stability through one-party dominance is a mirage. It sacrifices accountability, pluralism, and ultimately peace. If history has taught us anything, it is that centralized power always turns predatory.

Thomas Sankara once said, _”You cannot carry out fundamental change without a certain amount of madness. It takes the madmen of yesterday for us to act with clarity today.”_ Let Nigeria’s youth, civil society, and true patriots be that change.

If the current trend continues unchecked, we may wake up in a country where elections are rituals, opposition is symbolic, and freedom is fictional. That is not the Nigeria we deserve.

It is time to resist the creeping autocracy. It is time to reclaim our democracy.

‘Sylvester is a political analyst, he writes from South Africa’