Nigeria Under Siege: Insecurity, State Failure and the Dangerous Normalisation of Violence.

By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by SaharaWeeklyNG.com

“When Kidnapping, Bloodshed and Government Indifference Become the New Normal.”

Nigeria today stands at a dangerous crossroads, and one where insecurity has become routine, violence has been normalised and governance appears increasingly detached from the lived realities of its citizens. While the nation is not officially at war, the scale of killings, abductions and economic devastation inflicted by criminal networks rivals that of countries in active conflict. What makes Nigeria’s situation particularly tragic is not only the persistence of violence, but the disturbing sense of resignation with which it is treated by both the state and, increasingly, the public.

According to SBM Intelligence, a leading Nigerian security and risk analysis firm, at least 1,056 Nigerians were killed between July 2023 and June 2024 in kidnapping-related incidents alone. Within the same period, 7,568 people were abducted and kidnappers demanded over ₦10.9 billion in ransom, a significant portion of which was paid by desperate families and communities. In a separate but related report covering July 2024 to June 2025, SBM Intelligence recorded 4,722 abductions, 762 deaths, and ₦2.57 billion actually paid as ransom.

These are not SPECULATIVE FIGURES. They are verified, conservative estimates, the numbers that already paint a horrifying picture of a country under siege by criminal enterprises that operate with alarming confidence and impunity.

A State Losing Its Monopoly on Violence.

The German sociologist Max Weber famously defined the state as an entity that successfully claims the monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force within a given territory. By this classical definition, Nigeria is in profound trouble.

Across vast swathes of the country (particularly in the North-West, North-Central, and parts of the South-East) armed groups now determine who lives, who dies and who moves freely. Highways have become hunting grounds for kidnappers. Rural communities are routinely attacked, their inhabitants displaced or murdered. Schools are shut down, farmlands abandoned and entire local economies destroyed.

Security analyst Dr. Bulama Bukarti has repeatedly warned that Nigeria is facing a crisis of state authority, noting that “when non-state actors can repeatedly challenge the state without consequences, the legitimacy of government itself begins to erode.” This erosion is no longer theoretical; it is visible in daily Nigerian life.

The Ransom Economy: Crime as an Industry.

Perhaps one of the most damning indicators of Nigeria’s security collapse is the emergence of a ransom economy and a parallel criminal industry that thrives because the state cannot protect its citizens.

SBM Intelligence describes kidnapping in Nigeria as “an organised business model”, complete with negotiators, surveillance networks, informants and logistics chains. The billions of naira paid in ransom annually are not abstract numbers; they represent drained life savings, sold properties, ruined futures and families permanently traumatised.

Economist Dr. Muda Yusuf, former Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, argues that “the cost of insecurity in Nigeria goes beyond ransom payments; it includes lost investments, food inflation, unemployment and declining national productivity.” In effect, insecurity has become a tax on citizenship, one paid disproportionately by the poor and vulnerable.

The Moral Hazard of Amnesty and Appeasement.

Even more troubling than the violence itself is the state’s increasingly ambiguous response to it. In several instances, government officials and traditional authorities have publicly entertained negotiations with armed groups, offering amnesty, rehabilitation, or reintegration in exchange for “repentance.”

While dialogue is not inherently wrong, the moral hazard created by rewarding violent criminality is profound. When killers are pardoned without justice, accountability collapses. When armed men attend negotiations visibly armed while security agencies appear constrained or deferential, the message is unmistakable: the state is no longer feared.

Political scientist Prof. Jibrin Ibrahim has warned that “impunity is the oxygen of insurgency and banditry; once criminals realise there are no consequences, violence becomes self-sustaining.” Nigeria’s experience increasingly validates this grim assessment.

Leadership Optics and Public Anger.

Leadership is not only about policy; it is also about symbolism, timing, and empathy. In the midst of escalating killings and mass abductions, images of political leaders engaging in lavish spending, extensive foreign travel and political maneuvering for future elections have deepened public resentment.

The issue is not travel per se, but perceived indifference. When citizens are burying loved ones and liquidating assets to pay ransom, extravagant governance sends a chilling signal about priorities.

Renowned historian Prof. Toyin Falola has observed that “states collapse not only from external shocks but from the gradual alienation of leaders from the suffering of the people.” Nigeria today appears perilously close to that line.

A Society at Risk of Normalising Horror.

Perhaps the most frightening dimension of Nigeria’s crisis is societal desensitisation. Each new mass abduction, each village attack, each killing cycle generates outrage; for a moment. Then attention shifts. Life continues. Horror becomes routine.

This dangerous psychological adaptation is what philosopher Hannah Arendt described as the “banality of evil” to the point at which abnormal cruelty becomes ordinary through repetition and silence. When citizens begin to accept mass violence as inevitable, the final collapse is no longer sudden; it is gradual and quiet.

The Way Forward: Accountability, Not Excuses.

Nigeria does not lack solutions; it lacks political will. Experts broadly agree on key steps:

– Comprehensive security sector reform.

– Intelligence-driven policing.

– Swift and transparent prosecution of offenders

– Ending ransom payments through coordinated enforcement.

– Addressing poverty and unemployment that fuel criminal recruitment.

As Nobel laureate Wole Soyinka once warned, “The man dies in all who keep silent in the face of tyranny.” Silence (whether from fear, fatigue, or false optimism) is no longer a neutral act in Nigeria.

Final Reflection.

Nigeria is not yet a failed state; but it is a state in severe distress. The continued tolerance of mass insecurity, criminal profiteering, and leadership detachment risks pushing the nation beyond recovery. A society that shrugs at hundreds of deaths and thousands of abductions is not resilient; it is endangered.

History will not ask how many excuses were made. It will ask who acted and who chose comfort over courage.