Imports Are Not the Enemy: Why Nigeria’s Downstream Stability Depends on Regulation, Not Sentiment

It is important to state clearly that the pricing stability being observed in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector today is not accidental. It is largely the product of active, disciplined regulation by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

Without regulation, stability would be illusory.

Imagine a downstream system entirely dependent on a single domestic supplier in the name of local refining, with no balancing mechanism and no competitive pressure. In such a scenario, prices would not be discovered by the market; they would be dictated. Any upward adjustment by that supplier would transmit instantly to consumers, with no buffer and no alternative source of supply. That is not energy security. It is vulnerability.

Yet this is the central issue often ignored in the current debate.

Do Nigerian refineries deserve protection? Yes.
Does Nigeria deserve insulation from domestic supply shocks? Absolutely.
Is regulation essential in a strategic industry like downstream oil and gas? Without question.

But policy must confront facts, not sentiment.

Can current domestic refining meet national demand today? No.
Can it guarantee even fifteen days of uninterrupted nationwide supply? No.

These are not opinions. They are capacity realities.

The unavoidable question, therefore, is this: how do you ensure price stability and product availability when domestic supply does not meet national demand?

The answer is imports.

Nigeria operates an open market economy. In such a system, domestic refiners and importers are subject to the same economic arithmetic. If any player sells below the true market price, they are deliberately absorbing losses. That approach is temporary by nature. It is not efficiency; it is attrition. The objective is simple—force competitors out, then reset prices upward once alternatives disappear.

Downstream pricing is not opaque. It is among the most transparent markets globally. Refining margins, freight rates, insurance, port charges, financing costs, and foreign exchange exposure are all benchmarked and publicly accessible. Anyone can compute landing costs. Anyone can identify artificial pricing.

That is precisely why regulation matters.

Consider Nigeria’s telecommunications sector without the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC). We would not be debating marginal tariff adjustments today; we would be confronting multiples of current prices. Yet no one argues that regulation should exist solely to favour incumbent local operators, despite their massive capital investments. Why? Because doing so would stifle competition, deter future investment, and ultimately harm consumers.

The same logic applies to downstream petroleum.

Protect infrastructure. Safeguard supply. Regulate transparently. But do not distort the market under the illusion of protectionism. When regulation becomes selective, investment retreats. When investment retreats, supply contracts. When supply contracts, prices rise.

The objective is not to choose between domestic refining and imports. The objective is to bridge the gap between supply and demand without creating scarcity, instability, or investor flight.

Until domestic refining can reliably meet national demand at scale, imports are not a threat.

They are a stabiliser.

That is not ideology.
That is economics..

WARNING ON SOUTH AFRICA: A GLOBAL ALERT OR A CRISIS UNADDRESSED?

By George Omagbemi Sylvester

Published by saharaweeklyng.com

“Canada Joins U.S., China and Others in Travel Advisories — What It Reveals About Violent Crime, Governance and the Future of South African Tourism.”

Canada’s government has recently issued a stark travel advisory urging its citizens to “exercise a high degree of caution” when visiting South Africa, explicitly citing the persistent threat of violent crime and personal safety risks across the country. The advisory, released on December 4, 2025, places South Africa in a high-risk category with a classification few African states of similar economic stature currently share. This development marks a moment of international scrutiny that demands sober reflection, systemic accountability and a determined response from South African authorities.

Canada’s warning highlights not just isolated incidents, but deep and pervasive threats: armed robberies, carjackings, kidnappings, assault and theft at airports, hotels and on the nation’s roads. Foreign travellers, the advisory warns, have been directly affected by these crimes and an indictment that potential visitors should not take lightly.

This advisory follows similar travel warnings from the United States and China, underscoring a broader international consensus that South Africa’s safety climate is concerning enough to merit heightened caution. Collectively, these advisories reflect deep unease about the country’s security environment and raise urgent questions about governance, law enforcement efficacy and the future competitiveness of South Africa’s tourism and investment sectors.

WHAT THE CANADA ADVISORY ACTUALLY SAYS? Canada’s government specifically warns travellers that:

Violent crime occurs frequently throughout South Africa and has involved foreigners.

Incidents such as armed robberies, carjackings, home invasions and assaults are common, particularly after dark.

Kidnappings (including express kidnappings where victims are forced to withdraw money) remain a threat, particularly in major urban areas.

Airport-related theft and follow-up robberies upon arrival are significant enough to be explicitly included.

Theft from hotels and guest houses, petty crime like pickpocketing and impersonation of officials are ongoing concerns.

Road travel carries elevated risk, especially at traffic stops or isolated routes.

The language of the advisory (urging avoidance of unnecessary travel after dark, recommending reputable transport services and advising travellers not to resist criminals) is sobering. It reflects not just statistical risk, but practical survival advice aimed at preserving life and limb.

CONTEXT: SOUTH AFRICA’S SECURITY REALITY. South Africa’s challenges with violent crime are neither exaggerated nor isolated. The UK Foreign Office and other national advisory bodies similarly warn that violent crimes (including robbery, rape and carjacking) are more common here than in many other destinations. Most incidents occur in central business districts, townships on city peripheries and isolated areas are especially after dark.

These dangers are not trivial. South Africa historically records some of the highest murder and violent crime rates in the world, a reality shaped by entrenched socio-economic inequality, unemployment and systemic challenges within the criminal justice system. Crime in and around transport hubs and roads (including OR Tambo International Airport) is well documented and repeatedly noted in travel advisories.

Yet, the situation is paradoxical. Despite repeated advisories, a great many travellers still visit and many return safely. Indeed, in 2024 the United States recorded over 370,000 American visitors to South Africa and arrivals from the U.S. surpassed those from the United Kingdom with a testament to the destination’s appeal and resilience.

But to dismiss these advisories as alarmism is to miss the point and to risk perpetuating a cycle of complacency. The fact that crime is concentrated in particular areas does not diminish its severity for those affected.

EXPERT ANALYSIS: CRIME, PERCEPTION AND REALITY. Professor Sipho Madonsela, a respected criminologist at the University of Johannesburg, states:

“South Africa’s crime crisis cannot be understood in isolation from structural inequality and a justice system under strain. High crime deters investment, inhibits tourism, and erodes social cohesion.”

Similarly, international security expert Dr. Helen Jackson of the Institute for Global Safety argues:

“Travel advisories are not perception exercises; they are grounded in verified patterns of risk. When multiple governments independently flag the same dangers, there is empirical weight behind those warnings.”

These assessments highlight something too often overlooked: advisories are not fear-mongering but they are policy tools grounded in data and lived experience.

A travel advisory is, at its core, an admission that existing security measures are not adequate to guarantee safety for all. It is a red flag and when Canada, the United States, China, Australia and the UK all raise that flag simultaneously, the message is clear.

THE DIPLOMATIC DIMENSION. Travel warnings also carry diplomatic subtext. While some South African leaders dismiss these advisories as standard practice, stating that many countries globally face similar issues, the repeated alignment of major powers in issuing cautionary notices cannot be ignored.

For example, following the U.S. travel advisory earlier in 2025, South Africa’s Tourism Minister acknowledged the challenge but stressed visitor safety remains a priority. She noted that many visitors travel safely every year and that safety mechanisms (like tourism safety helplines and increased security at hotspots) are in place.

Yet the diplomatic standoff (between acknowledging crime as a reality and defending national reputation) demonstrates a tension that has broader economic implications.

IMPACT ON TOURISM AND INVESTMENT. Tourism is a significant pillar of South Africa’s economy, contributing billions to GDP and sustaining jobs across hospitality, travel, and retail sectors. Yet security concerns threaten to erode confidence among potential visitors and investors alike.

A World Bank analysis of international travel patterns reveals that perceived safety is among the top factors influencing destination choice. If safety concerns escalate in international rankings, tourists may opt for destinations perceived as safer and even if crime levels are statistically comparable.

This risk is not hypothetical. Travel advisories have historically influenced tourism flows, airline bookings and foreign investment decisions. When Canada (a country with robust international mobility) signals heightened caution, travellers and corporate stakeholders pay attention.

NOT JUST SOUTH AFRICA: A GLOBAL CHALLENGE. It is crucial to understand that high crime is not unique to South Africa. Many countries with strong economic credentials contend with violent crime and still attract millions of visitors. Yet the alarming part of the current situation is how consistently multiple governments are urging caution and not merely routine vigilance.

This convergence of advisories suggests a pattern, not isolated policy decisions. It reflects a global judgement that South Africa’s approach to safety is insufficiently robust and, without significant reforms, may undermine the nation’s competitiveness.

In Summary: A MOMENT FOR HONEST LEADERSHIP..

Canada’s travel advisory (joined by similar warnings from the U.S. and China) is more than a bulletin; it is a wake-up call. South Africa stands at a crossroads: It can choose to confront its crime crisis with urgency, transparency, and comprehensive reform or risk international isolation in tourism and investment.

In the words of Professor Madonsela:

“Safety is not just a policy objective; it is a currency for economic confidence.”

South Africa’s rich landscapes, vibrant cultures and world-class attractions should not be overshadowed by avoidable risks. The country deserves better governance, stronger policing and a secure environment where locals and visitors alike can thrive.

In an era where global travel is both highly competitive and intensely scrutinised, South Africa’s future as a premier destination depends not just on beauty, but on safety and on the courage to address the issues that have now captured the international community’s attention.

Solomon Lagoke Nominated for Outstanding Young Record Label Entrepreneur of the Year

The Chief Executive Officer of Bloom Recordz, Comrade Solomon Lagoke, has received a nomination for Outstanding Young Record Label Entrepreneur of the Year at the forthcoming Cool Wealth Awards 9.0.

The award ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, January 11, 2026, at Azalea Hall, 37 Glover Court, Ikoyi, Lagos. The red-carpet reception will begin at 3:00 p.m., followed by the main event at 4:00 p.m.

Now in its ninth edition, the Cool Wealth Awards annually acknowledges young professionals and industry leaders whose work has contributed to growth and innovation across Nigeria’s creative and business sectors.

Lagoke’s nomination follows his increasing involvement in the country’s entertainment industry through Bloom Recordz, a music label he established to develop and promote emerging talent. His recognition highlights the expanding role of young entrepreneurs in driving Nigeria’s music and creative economy.

Speaking on his nomination, Lagoke expressed appreciation for the acknowledgment and reaffirmed his commitment to building a platform that empowers artists and fosters creativity within the Nigerian music scene.

The Cool Wealth Awards 9.0 is expected to attract leading figures from entertainment, media, and business, celebrating individuals making measurable impact in their respective fields.