Politics
WHY THE OPPOSITION MIGHT WIN THE APC IN 2019
BY DELE MOMODU
*Excerpts from his article ‘Do these guys understand Arithmetic at all?’ on Thisday Backpage
‘….Let me now explain why it may not be so easy for President Buhari to play the Ekiti game nationally. It was said that about 30,000 police officers were drafted to maintain law and order in Ekiti State at the just concluded elections. I leave, for another day, the issues surrounding raging questions about how and where the government found the funding, capacity and willingness to deploy such humongous human and material security forces and equipment to a small State like Ekiti State in the wake of the ravaging Boko Haram menace, the rampaging herdsmen and the riotous militants. One would have thought that a nation afflicted with the security nightmare that insurgency, militancy and terrorism presents would not deem fit to deploy such military and police might for electioneering purposes when these terrible scourges are consuming the land. I suppose, the government considers winning elections and staying in power as much more important than the lives and security of the people they swore to protect when they assumed office. Whatever the reason, we saw what must be the largest possible example of the militarisation of a State since independence. That really is the point. Can this be sustained at the Federal level for the upcoming Presidential and gubernatorial elections? I doubt it. I give my reasons below.
The entire work force of the Nigerian Police is not more than about 300,000 personnel. With 30,000 police deployed to one state alone means about 10% of the work force being deployed to that State. Ekiti is one of the smallest States in the Federation, and there are 36 States and a Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Even if only 15,000 policemen were deployed to Ekiti State and there was a desire to do this at the national level for the Presidential elections, only 20 out of 36 States and the FCT would be covered. This would leave a shortfall of 16 States. If we take the Ekiti State example and deploy 30,000 per State, only 10 States would be covered. This would also mean that for the duration, the entire police force would only be dealing with elections. Open season indeed for crooks, criminals and terrorists! To be frank the question for the young student of arithmetic is where then would the government find such number of police per State to assemble, and possibly manipulate, to achieve pre-determined goals?
Depending on who the candidate of the PDP is, I’m certain, APC will find it difficult to have its past grip on the Northern Region. Contrary to the belief that President Buhari enjoys cult-followership in the North, the reality is that this is not the case and that this aphorism cannot stand any casual scrutiny not to mention rigorous examination. The ill-concealed fact is that the President is perceived to have such a cult following because of the outcome of the 2015 Presidential elections when the President won massively in the Northern part of Nigeria. However, the perception falls flat on its face when you examine the previous elections before 2015 critically. It is clear that the President did well in the North in those past elections, but the truth is that PDP did just as well. On a comparative basis in those previous elections, the President did a lot better this time around. What changed? As simplistic as it may sound, it was the ‘CHANGE’ mantra that made the difference.Significantly, people came together to work for President Buhari to emerge. It was not a solitary effort or lone victory! It was the victory of the people. Hitherto strong PDP enclaves suddenly saw President Buhari as the person who would bring them out of the doldrums and improve their lot. They supported him not because of what he stood for, or his person, but because they were weary and tired of the Jonathan government and its many acts of impunity, financial recklessness and brazen kleptocracy by senior government officials who did not have the welfare of the Nigerian masses at their heart.Indeed, the choice before Nigeria in 2015 was stark! It was either Jonathan or Buhari. And Nigerians did not want Jonathan much more than a case of wanting Buhari. We are at the same threshold now.
In truth, the PDP has traditionally been a Northern Party per se and it still commands substantial support in that area of the country. I keep saying that had President Jonathan been able to garner half the number of those who supported him in the North in the 2011 elections what we are saying today would not have been the story! A different reality would have been upon us. President Jonathan won in 2011 not because the North liked him personally, but because the North wanted to vote with PDP as it has been wont to do for many generations! PDP is beginning to learn its lesson and it is starting to make amends. The Party is no longer flaunting its greatly curtailed power. Its officers and Party faithfuls no longer take anything for granted.They know they must work hard to overcome the prejudices and biases of the people against them. They now appreciate that there is no certainty in politics. That realisation, which the APC appears to have had in 2015, is what the APC of 2018 now seems to be lacking. At the rate members are deserting APC in droves, it is only a matter of time before things fall apart completely.
The PDP will certainly field a Northerner to neutralise whatever might be the Buhari effect. This person would be certain to be heavily backed by other aspirants who may not get the party ticket. It is not likely that Buhari can overwhelmingly take over the North Central and North East this time around. Even in the North West, landslide victor is not assured. Every little whittling of the Buhari numbers from the 2015 elections diminishes his overall tally and makes him a sitting duck.
The promises made by APC would also be under critical scrutiny and those not kept would become subjects of public ridicule and odium. The Southern parts have become nearly no go zones, especially in the South South and South East. The South West is the only part where the President and APC may garner something a bit sizable from the Southern parts with the help of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the South West Governors. That is why Ekiti State suddenly became a do-or-die affair. The desperation was palpable, and victory had to be rammed down the throat of the electorate by all means, by hook or crook, by fire, by force! However, the use of force won’t work this time around, not least because the numbers just don’t add up and there is not enough manpower on the ground to replicate the Ekiti State debacle.
With the margin of victory in Ekiti State so slim and wafer thin, despite the massive security apparatus and personnel deployed to enforce a victory, it appears that the game is up! The numbers game may have finally caught up with the President. Something overtly drastic has to be attempted and done to turn things around positively.
Time will surely tell!’
Dele Momodu. Thisday, July 21 2018
Politics
Tinubu Is the ‘Surgeon’ Nigeria Needs; Opposition Lacks Courage for 2027 — Ogra
Tinubu Is the ‘Surgeon’ Nigeria Needs; Opposition Lacks Courage for 2027 — Ogra
ABUJA — Senior Special Assistant to the President, O’tega Ogra, has defended the reform agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, describing him as a “surgeon” prepared to take difficult but necessary decisions to stabilise Nigeria’s economy, while criticising opposition figures ahead of the 2027 general elections.
In a statement titled “My thoughts on the APC, President Bola Tinubu’s reforms, and the opposition,” Ogra, popularly known as ‘The Tiger,’ said many opposition leaders lack the political will required to implement tough but beneficial policies.
‘Surgeon vs Bystander’
Drawing a medical analogy, Ogra likened the President’s leadership style to that of a specialist willing to carry out life-saving surgery, while portraying critics as passive observers.
“The difference between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and them is like comparing a surgeon willing to take a difficult but life-saving decision in the operating theatre, and a bystander more concerned with applause than outcome,” he said.
He argued that while the President is willing to endure short-term criticism in pursuit of long-term national stability, the opposition remains driven by populist considerations that could delay meaningful progress.
Structural Reforms Underway
Ogra dismissed claims that the administration’s policies are superficial, insisting they represent fundamental changes aimed at correcting longstanding economic distortions.
He cited developments in the oil and gas sector, including efforts to promote domestic refining and eliminate what he described as fraudulent subsidy regimes, as measures targeted at blocking revenue leakages. He also referenced fiscal reforms designed to boost government revenue and support infrastructure and social investments.
“These decisions are not politically convenient. They demand resolve,” Ogra said, adding that history tends to favour leaders who undertake systemic reforms rather than those who “manage decline.”
Criticism of Opposition
The presidential aide said opposition parties have “a lot to learn” from the internal workings of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), accusing rival groups of failing to present clear and workable policy alternatives.
According to him, criticism in a democracy must be accompanied by substance and conviction.
“Nigeria does not need rehearsed outrage. It needs tested ideas and leaders willing to stand by them when it matters most,” he added.
Outlook on Reforms
While acknowledging that the reforms may take time to fully materialise, Ogra expressed confidence that early signs across key sectors point to a more resilient economy and improved fiscal discipline.
He concluded that leadership is ultimately defined by the ability to make difficult and sometimes unpopular decisions, insisting that such choices are essential for building a strong and stable nation.
Politics
Top Reps Aspirant, Abudu-Balogun Assures Constituents of Inclusive, Progressive Representation
Top Reps Aspirant, Abudu-Balogun Assures Constituents of Inclusive, Progressive Representation
It is an incontrovertible fact that Watersiders should GET IT RIGHT this time around by overwhelmingly support this distinguished Watersider, Hon. Abudu-Balogun to emerge as the Candidate of APC for the Federal House of Representative in the 2027 elections.
Apart from being a respected politician among the creme-de-la-creme professionals in politics in Ogun State, and undoubtedly a prominent grassroots politician of Waterside extraction, Hon. Abudu-Balogun has seen it all in National politics that will be of great benefits to the Federal Constituency if eventually elected.
Hmmm! With the emergence of the distinguished Senator Solomon Adeola (Yayi) as the consensus Governorship candidate of APC in Ogun State, Waterside agitation for enduring developmental projects and its realisation like Deep Sea Port, assumption of Oil producing LGA via Eba Oil deposits, sustainable Electricity Supply would be a walk-over. This anaysis is predicated upon a scientifically established empirical evidence that Hon Abudu-Balogun is a sustainable Bridge between this Federal Constituency and the Powers that be at Federal level.
He has the competence, he posseses the Capacity, he has the cognate political experience, he has fortified the developmental blueprint, he has worked tirelessly, and earned the link to facilitate the expected developmental projects to this Federal Constituency.
Above all, Hon Abudu-Balogun has concluded political and economic arrangements to galvanise support in all respects from the main actors at the National and sub-national levels in the country for the tasks ahead.
TENI NI TENI. This is the time TIME FOR “ACTION” in the realisation of the enduring Developmental Agenda (that has been eluding us from time immemorial) for the entire Federal Constituency, particularly, our dear Ogun Waterside LGA.
Distinguished Watersiders, particularly, the comrade professional politicians and the astute Professionals in politics, please factcheck this. Hon Abudu-Balogun is a very popular and honoured politician in Ijebu-North LGA, he is cherished and respected professional in politics in Ijebu-East LGA, he is a consistently consistent rare breed politician in Waterside who has the interest of Waterside development at heart.
ACTION needs our support, he needs our endorsement at this political turning point of our dear LGA, the Wealth Side of Ogun State.
Iwe teni, iwe teni, iwe teni o.
Ajuse ri Dede Eni o.
Happy Sunday to us all.
Politics
ADC Unstoppable, Like the Sun — Aregbesola Declares at 8th National Convention
ADC Unstoppable, Like the Sun — Aregbesola Declares at 8th National Convention
ABUJA — Former Osun State Governor and chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Rauf Aregbesola, has declared that the party remains “unstoppable,” likening its rise to the inevitability of the sun, despite what he described as attempts by the ruling establishment to weaken opposition forces.
Speaking at the ADC’s 8th National Convention, Aregbesola said the party’s existence is rooted in the will of Nigerians and protected by the constitution, insisting that no political pressure or institutional interference could halt its progress.
“Just as no power can stop the sun from rising, so can the ADC not be stopped,” he told delegates.
Blasts Political System, Accuses Ruling Forces of Undermining Democracy
The ADC leader accused the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) of actions he described as anti-democratic, alleging efforts to frustrate opposition parties ahead of the 2027 elections.
He criticized what he termed the normalization of political “criminality,” arguing that recent political realignments and electoral practices undermine democratic integrity.
According to him, ADC does not owe its existence to any individual or institution but to Nigerians “tired of deceit and mismanagement.”
Harsh Assessment of Economy, Security, and Governance
Aregbesola painted a grim picture of the nation’s condition, citing economic decline, rising inflation, and worsening living standards.
He noted that the naira’s depreciation from about ₦700 to ₦1,400 per dollar reflects what he described as poor economic management, while fuel prices have surged significantly, making daily life difficult for citizens.
On security, he described the current situation as one of the worst in Nigeria’s history, raising concerns about increasing violence and what he called a lack of empathy from leadership in responding to national tragedies.
ADC Positions Itself as Nigeria’s “Rescue Mission”
The former minister said the ADC has, within months, transformed into a major opposition force, claiming it now represents the “hope of the Nigerian people.”
He outlined the party’s rapid structural expansion, ongoing membership drive, and efforts to build alliances with other opposition groups including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
Aregbesola emphasized that the party is preparing to challenge the APC in the 2027 general elections through what he described as a “united opposition front.”
Defends Party Leadership Changes, Convention Legitimacy
Providing details of internal restructuring, Aregbesola said the emergence of new leadership, including David Mark as caretaker national chairman, followed due constitutional process and was duly communicated to INEC.
He argued that the commission’s refusal to monitor the convention violates provisions of the Electoral Act, insisting that ADC fulfilled all legal requirements.
Alleges Persecution of Opposition Figures
The ADC leader further accused the government of using state institutions such as anti-corruption agencies and security services to intimidate opposition politicians.
He cited cases involving figures like Nasir El-Rufai and Aminu Tambuwal, describing the trend as a dangerous signal for democracy.
Calls for United Front Ahead of 2027
Aregbesola concluded with a rallying call for Nigerians to support the ADC’s mission to restore “freedom, security, and prosperity,” warning against political apathy.
“A democracy without opposition is an autocracy,” he said, urging citizens to reject what he termed any attempt at political “coronation.”
Closing Note
The convention, themed “So that Nigeria will work for Freedom, Security and Prosperity,” brought together party delegates and stakeholders, marking a significant step in ADC’s preparations for the 2027 elections.
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