Presidency Advised to Consider Strategic Lockdowns as Security Solution

Policy memorandum from CRADI outlines targeted, intelligence-led measures against insurgents and bandits

The Presidency has been advised to adopt strategic, intelligence-driven lockdowns as part of a new framework to counter terrorism, banditry, and other forms of violent criminality threatening national stability.

This recommendation was contained in a Policy Advisory Memorandum submitted to the Federal Government by the Crest Research and Development Institute (CRADI) and authored by conflict and security expert, Isa Mohammed.

The memorandum argues that Nigeria’s worsening insecurity requires urgent, innovative approaches beyond conventional military operations, pointing to lessons from other conflict zones as well as Nigeria’s own COVID-19 lockdown experience.

A Nation at a Crossroads

Nigeria currently faces overlapping layers of violence:

• Boko Haram and ISWAP insurgency in the Northeast.
• Banditry, mass kidnappings, and illegal mining in the Northwest.
• Farmer–herder clashes and communal violence in the North Central.
• Separatist-linked attacks in the Southeast.
• Oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and cult-related violence in the South-South.
• Rising cases of kidnappings and armed robbery in the Southwest.

According to the memorandum, this mosaic of insecurity has eroded public trust in state authority and demands a coordinated strategy that can disrupt criminal networks while safeguarding civilian lives.

“Conventional military campaigns alone cannot address these overlapping threats,” Mohammed wrote. “Strategic lockdowns, when carefully designed, can restrict terrorist mobility, cut off supply lines, and create the operational space for intelligence-led security operations.”

Buratai’s Call Sparks Policy Debate

The proposal builds on a recent intervention by former Chief of Army Staff, General Tukur Yusuf Buratai (Rtd.), who called for a nationwide strategic lockdown as a tool to curb rising insecurity.

CRADI responded by convening a Policy Lab under its Co-Creation and Innovation Lab (CCIL), bringing together security practitioners, conflict analysts, governance experts, humanitarian actors, and community stakeholders.

The Lab drew lessons from Nigeria’s COVID-19 lockdown, which, despite its economic costs, succeeded in reducing certain forms of crime and giving security forces a clearer view of population movements. Participants agreed that lockdowns can be effective, but only if targeted, intelligence-driven, and sensitive to humanitarian needs.

Targeted, Not Blanket Lockdowns

The memorandum strongly cautioned against a nationwide shutdown, arguing it would cripple livelihoods without delivering sustainable security. Instead, CRADI recommended zonal lockdowns tailored to local dynamics.

Northeast: Seal borders with Niger, Chad, and Cameroon; enforce curfews around the Lake Chad Basin and Mandara Mountains.

Northwest: Impose lockdowns in forest belts such as Rugu, Kamuku, and Birnin Gwari; ban illegal mining; restrict rural mobility.

North Central: Enforce lockdowns in conflict flashpoints; secure farmlands with patrols; regulate grazing routes to reduce clashes.

Southeast: Introduce night curfews; restrict unauthorized assemblies; secure major highways against attacks.

South-South: Implement surveillance lockdowns along pipeline corridors and waterways to combat oil theft and cult-related violence.

Southwest: Apply tactical restrictions in forest reserves, especially the Ondo–Ogun axis, which has become a haven for kidnappers.

Security and Humanitarian Balance

The memorandum stressed that any lockdown must prioritize civilians’ welfare. Relief distribution, medical services, and humanitarian corridors must be integral parts of the plan.

“Lockdowns cannot succeed if they punish communities more than they hurt terrorists,” the Policy Lab concluded.

Civil society groups, traditional rulers, and religious leaders were identified as key partners in sensitization and community buy-in. International partners such as the United Nations, African Union, and ECOWAS were also highlighted as potential providers of technical and logistical support.

Oversight and Rule of Law

The memorandum insisted that the rule of law and accountability are essential if the strategy is to maintain legitimacy.

It proposed the creation of a Joint Oversight Mechanism comprising parliamentary committees, the National Human Rights Commission, and civil society actors to monitor enforcement, prevent abuse, and provide citizens with grievance platforms.

Security personnel would be required to operate under clear rules of engagement that respect constitutional rights while allowing decisive action against armed groups.

Implementation Plan

The strategy would unfold in phases:

First 3 months: Map security hotspots, enact legal frameworks, and sensitize communities.

Next 3–6 months: Enforce lockdowns, deploy security forces, and provide humanitarian relief.

After 6 months: Evaluate effectiveness, with adjustments made as needed. Successful areas would transition into community policing and peacebuilding efforts, while unresolved hotspots could see extended lockdowns.

Lockdowns would be strictly time-bound, lasting three to six months in any area, with extensions subject to National Assembly approval.

Measuring Success

Quarterly reports would be submitted to the Presidency anthe d National Assembly. Progress indicators would include:

Reduction in attacks and kidnappings.

Arrest or neutralization of high-value targets.

Destruction of terrorist and bandit camps.

Safe return of displaced persons.

Restoration of farming, trade, and socio-economic activities.

Restoring Authority and Stability

In its conclusion, the memorandum framed the proposal as an opportunity for the Federal Government to regain the initiative in its security strategy.

“General Buratai’s call for a strategic lockdown is an urgent reminder that Nigeria must rethink its approach to insecurity,” Mohammed wrote.

“If implemented with strong oversight, humanitarian sensitivity, and clear timelines, strategic lockdowns can help restore state authority, protect vulnerable communities, and lay the foundation for peacebuilding and long-term stability.”