Simple Actions President Bola Tinubu Must Take Now
by Olufemi Aduwo
Very Short Term:
The golden rule when you face a crisis of any sort is to allay fears of those concerned, including you, the leader. Fear kills more than bullets.
Mr. President, sir:
1. Get on the television and radio and reassure Nigerians that you are on top of the situation. It should not be a long speech at all but maximum of five minutes. Translate the speech into as many local languages as possible. Let the governors and parliamentarians do the same to percolate to the grassroots.
2. In that speech, plead for more understanding. Tell Nigerians you will address them again, in four weeks latest, on measures to address the situation. Reassure them that you will tackle the situation decisively. Take the advice I will give you here to your cabinet and the National Council of State so they can make inputs and perfect them.
3. Announce cuts in government expenditure especially the lifestyle of political leaders. Sir, don’t you wonder how Nigerians who bear these unbearable inflation survive? It’s not rocket science, Mr. President. The first rule under hyper-inflation is to go back to that rudimentary economics taught in the secondary school: Scarcity, Scale of Preference, Choices, Opportunity Cost.
This present crisis doesn’t need economic experts to solve. We only need to apply common sense!
(a) Prices are soaring because of scarcity.
(b) Our money can no longer buy all the things we used to buy.
(c) We now have to make a scale of preference. We need the things we need (not want) on a scale of preference. Non-essential things are off that list right away.
(d) We now make choices (priorities), purchases within that scale. This means that even not all the items that make that scale will make it in our Naira allocation.
(e) We now increase our earning to cover those items on that scale (remember they are essential) but even essential things vary in terms how essential. Some can tarry for a while.
Summary:
When in hyperinflation, don’t panic. Panic will complicate the problem. And may even kill. Smile broadly. Then, Think. Plan. Be honest. Have that will power.
That is how we have been surviving. Every poor, even illiterate Nigerian family heads; this is what they have been doing, sir. They may not know any economic terms, but that’s what they do. And I am writing here, as a social crusader with common sense; it is for you as the head of the Nigerian household economy, just do the above. Expenditure saved is income earned. It starts from you, Mr. President.
That moves us to the short term.
Short Term (After one year)
1. Stop all new civil projects at the federal level for the rest of the year. Advice states to do the same. Divert money saved to agriculture. It takes between three to eight months for most food crops in Nigeria to be ripen for harvest. Thank God, the food crisis is happening at the very beginning of the agric season. And, sir, a farmer that doesn’t plant at the beginning of the farming season, won’t reap anything at harvest time. That’s what Adam Smith meant in his ‘Theory of Factors of Production’. It doesn’t need PhD to understand and apply, sir.
2. Continue funding of already approved civil projects so that real income will not shrink in the blue collar sector. Do mostly direct labour so income can circulate to Nigerians.
3. Import strategic food e.g. rice, beans, tomatoes, pepper, groundnut oil, etc. There is no shame in this, sir. It’s food first in the hierarchy of needs. Whatever it will take in the short run, make food available to Nigerians. Don’t go into who caused the food problem, for now. ‘Ebi kii wo inu, ki nkan mii o wobe’. (A hungry person will not listen to any other thing except you give him or her food). The dead don’t eat food.
4. NNPCL must start pushing locally refined petrol (and diesel for the real sector). Meanwhile, give NNPCL dollar at controlled rate to import fuel. Call it subsidy or whatever name, if you like. Peg the sales to control prices and monitor ruthlessly. We are in serious crisis. Be ruthless, sir. Some people have said you can fast track Dangote. Anyhow. Just make fuel available, sir. Again, Adam Smith! Production!
5. Identify growers of major foodstuff and support them directly through state governments.
6. Release CBN probe report and government white paper. Sir, you are wasting too much time on this!
Medium Term (12-18 months):
1. Probe the banking sector and follow up with an enabling law to jail culprits.
Trial should be through Tribunals, not courts. Trial should be statute barred so that in ten months, the Supreme Court can give final judgments. From Tribunal to Appeal Court, to Supreme Court!
I know many of them are your paddy. But they have had enough, sir. Tell them ‘O To Ge’ (It’s enough). They will understand, if they are honest. They have bled Nigeria for too long. Nigeria must not die in your hands. Sing Sonny Okosuns hit track to them; “Which way Nigeria”.
Let’s save Nigeria. So Nigeria won’t die
2. Start Civil Servants Miscellaneous Offences Tribunal to jail corrupt civil servants. Like the bankers, the civil servants will also understand. Those doing the damage in the system are not more than two per cent of civil servants! You know this, Mr. President.
3. Rejig the National Food Policy to plan how we can be food sufficient. Sir, we have not been able to feed ourselves in Nigeria. Bible says a man not able to feed his family or household is not fit to head that family. It means if you are president and the nation is not self-sufficient in food production (not food importation), then you are not fit to be president, sir. I am not the one saying so, sir. It’s God. You are the Head of this household called Nigeria now by His grace. God has blessed us too much. What we cannot grow in Nigeria does not exist!
4. License new agric banks (at least 10 of them, facing agriculture funding squarely). They must be operational before the end of this year, nationwide.
To hell with all these criminal banks! License at least 50 small medium industry banks and 50 agriculture micro finance banks to start operations before December 2024. Commercial farming should be the goal here. They must be monitored to stay within their portfolios.
5. Make 40 modular refineries strategically located nationwide to be operational. State and local governments can save 50 per cent of their allocations for four months to own not more than 20 per cent equity in these small refineries within their states. This will not only solve the petrol problem on time but also serve as IGR for them in the near future.
Long Term (2 years and above):
1. Sustain medium-term policies highlighted above. In strategic road mapping, execution is key, sir.
(2.) Resume civil works in the public sector to create employment and incomes.
(3). Start agro processing for exports. No export of raw agriculture products again.
(4). Rejig all Federal Universities of Agric to face agriculture, or scrap them. State governments should start Universities of Agric. A state like Ogun with excess varsities and polytechnics should convert quite a number of them to Agric varsities with emphasis on practical training. All polytechnics should be converted to technical universities to work out how to manufacture so many things that we import, preparatory to banning their importation. Local industries cannot survive if we don’t ban these imports.
(5.) Sir, Adam Smith is turning in his grave, cursing Nigeria. We are poor because we do not produce, our taste is strictly for what we don’t produce! We can never be rich like that, unless we go into banking, politics or religion! Each time Nigerian Customs says it has made billions of Naira, I cry. They should make income from excise income (exports) not imports. Imports increase the need for dollars! Exports bring in dollars! Common sense nah.
(6.) Ban frivolous imports. Notice should have been given right now that in 12 months, these useless imports ‘are gone’. They are the ‘subsidies’ that must be ‘gone’, not the one on petrol. In the real sense, Mr. President, you actually ‘subsidize’ these frivolous items; toothpick, toothbrush, toothpaste, etc. name it. Enter any supermarket or market, 80 percent of goods there are bought with dollars. So, when dollar goes up, the prices must go up. Sir, ban them! Don’t follow Reno Omokri’s lame advice that Nigerians should boycott imported goods. Omokri lives abroad. We here can only buy what we see. Enabling laws are needed here, so that if you display banned commodities, you go to jail. Please expand this for effective implementation of these laws.
(7.) My President, I have not suggested Price Controls. They don’t work. I am a practical person. I am driven by theories driven by research. There is no economic theory bigger than the Theory of Demand and Supply. So, do not waste time and money setting up price controls? The moment supply exceeds demand, prices will crash. And when we have excess food, we store, process and export to countries like Niger, Mali. We export to USA and UK. Check out the foodstuff prices in the UK. They are high sir. We can make good dollars and pounds exporting food to them there sir.
Finally, sir, execution is important. Our problem has always been lack of executive will, not lack of ideas. I have never been scared of any crisis in my life. As the crisis is brewing, God is already giving me ideas to tackle it. And it’s so for most Nigerians at household levels.
See, Mr. President, this economic crisis is no big deal if you want to tackle it. I swear. There is no need for any economic wizardry. We need just common sense and discipline or willpower. It’s the same way we manage our household income. It’s the same way my students are managing their incomes and expenditures! My students are fine! They are not happy, but they are fine. They are still making their hairs and coming to classes! But many of them have reduced what they eat and how many times they eat daily.
Me too, I no longer fry eggs. I boil them.
That way I save money on groundnut oil, salt, gas, onion and pepper. And if yam is not careful, I will ban it, like I did bread. No food is bigger than me in my household. I call the shots. Meat is only for my daughter now. At over 50, I don’t need meat. I take fish. Local fish. Not imported fish. It’s only our government and national assembly that have refused to change. They still use uncommon sense. Every household in Nigeria is applying the common sense!
Sir, economics is common sense made difficult!
Thank you for listening and being ready to take these actions, Mr. President.
Your patriotic subject,
Olufemi Samson Aduwo, Permanent Representative, CCDI to ECOSOC/United Nations.
