Business
Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI®: Private sector activity continues to expand but intense cost pressures weigh on growth
Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI®: Private sector activity continues to expand but intense cost pressures weigh on growth.
Nigeria’s private sector concluded the third quarter of 2021 with a modest expansion in business conditions. Quicker uplifts were seen in new orders, employment and stocks of purchases, but output growth moderated for the second month running. Nevertheless, optimism improved to a seven-month high. Material scarcity and unfavourable exchange rate movements exerted upward pressures on costs, however, leading to a record rate of purchase price inflation.
Subsequently, this fed through to a steep rise in selling prices. The headline figure derived from the survey is the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®). Readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions on the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The headline PMI registered at 52.3 in September, little[1]changed from 52.2 in August, and indicative of a fifteenth consecutive monthly expansion.
Central to the improvement was a solid and accelerated rise in new orders, which panellists mostly linked to the securing of new clients. Contrary to the improvement in domestic sales, exports fell, and at the quickest rate since December amid persisting international COVID-19 restrictions. Nevertheless, to meet demand firms increased their output levels, but the pace of expansion was only modest, and much softer than the rate of new order growth.
Cash and material shortages reportedly hindered some firms’ ability to raise output. All four of the monitored sub-sectors recorded expansions, with manufacturers seeing the strongest uplift, followed by wholesale & retail, services and agriculture, respectively. Firms raised their buying activity sharply in September. Anecdotal evidence suggested efforts to mitigate against future supply and price shocks led to stockpiling.
As a result, stocks of purchases rose at the fastest rate since October 2020. Meanwhile, vendor performance benefitted from quieter road conditions and advance payments.
Furthermore, suppliers’ delivery times improved to the greatest extent since last December. Higher raw material and commodity costs as well as unfavourable naira-dollar exchange rate movements led to a substantial increase in input expenses. In fact, purchase costs rose at the quickest rate in nearly eight years of data collection. Firms were able to pass on part of the increase to clients however, with charge inflation the second-strongest in the series to date.
Finally, after moderating in August, sentiment improved to a seven-month high amid plans to increase marketing, open more stores and broaden product offerings.
Nigeria’s Inflation Drops to 15.10% as NBS Reports Deflationary Trend
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, marking a significant drop from 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The report also showed that month-on-month inflation recorded a deflationary trend of –2.88 per cent, representing a 3.42 percentage-point decrease compared to December 2025. Analysts say the development signals easing price pressures across key sectors of the economy.
Food inflation stood at 8.89 per cent year-on-year, down from 29.63 per cent in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, food prices declined by 6.02 per cent, reflecting lower costs in several staple commodities.
The data suggests a sustained downward trajectory in inflation over the past 12 months, pointing to improving macroeconomic stability.
The administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has consistently attributed recent economic adjustments to ongoing fiscal and monetary reforms aimed at stabilising prices, boosting agricultural output, and strengthening domestic supply chains.
Economic analysts note that while the latest figures indicate progress, sustaining the downward trend will depend on continued policy discipline, exchange rate stability, and improvements in food production and distribution.
The January report provides one of the clearest indications yet that inflationary pressures, which surged in early 2025, may be moderating.
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, marking a significant drop from 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The report also showed that month-on-month inflation recorded a deflationary trend of –2.88 per cent, representing a 3.42 percentage-point decrease compared to December 2025. Analysts say the development signals easing price pressures across key sectors of the economy.
Food inflation stood at 8.89 per cent year-on-year, down from 29.63 per cent in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, food prices declined by 6.02 per cent, reflecting lower costs in several staple commodities.
The data suggests a sustained downward trajectory in inflation over the past 12 months, pointing to improving macroeconomic stability.
The administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has consistently attributed recent economic adjustments to ongoing fiscal and monetary reforms aimed at stabilising prices, boosting agricultural output, and strengthening domestic supply chains.
Economic analysts note that while the latest figures indicate progress, sustaining the downward trend will depend on continued policy discipline, exchange rate stability, and improvements in food production and distribution.
The January report provides one of the clearest indications yet that inflationary pressures, which surged in early 2025, may be moderating.
Alpha Morgan to Host 19th Economic Review Webinar
In an economy shaped by constant shifts, the edge often belongs to those with the right information.
On Wednesday, February 25, 2026, Alpha Morgan Bank will host the 19th edition of its Economic Review Webinar, a high-level thought leadership session designed to equip businesses, investors, and individuals with timely financial and economic insight.
The session, which will hold live on Zoom at 10:00am WAT and will feature economist Bismarck Rewane, who will examine the key signals influencing Nigeria’s economic direction in 2026, including policy trends, market movements, and global developments shaping the local landscape.
With a consistent track record of delivering clarity in uncertain times, the Alpha Morgan Economic Review continues to provide practical context for decision-making in a dynamic environment.
Registration for the 19th Alpha Morgan Economic Review is free and can be completed via https://bit.ly/registeramerseries19
It is a bi-monthly platform that is open to the public and is held virtually.
Visit www.alphamorganbank to know more.
GTBank Launches Quick Airtime Loan at 2.95%
Guaranty Trust Bank Ltd (GTBank), the flagship banking franchise of GTCO Plc, Africa’s leading financial services group, today announced the launch of Quick Airtime Loan, an innovative digital solution that gives customers instant access to airtime when they run out of call credit and have limited funds in their bank accounts, ensuring customers can stay connected when it matters most.
In today’s always-on world, running out of airtime is more than a minor inconvenience. It can mean missed opportunities, disrupted plans, and lost connections, often at the very moment when funds are tight, and options are limited. Quick Airtime Loan was created to solve this problem, offering customers instant access to airtime on credit, directly from their bank. With Quick Airtime Loan, eligible GTBank customers can access from ₦100 and up to ₦10,000 by dialing *737*90#. Available across all major mobile networks in Nigeria, the service will soon expand to include data loans, further strengthening its proposition as a reliable on-demand platform.
For years, the airtime credit market has been dominated by Telcos, where charges for this service are at 15%. GTBank is now changing the narrative by offering a customer-centric, bank-led digital alternative priced at 2.95%. Built on transparency, convenience and affordability, Quick Airtime Loan has the potential to broaden access to airtime, deliver meaningful cost savings for millions of Nigerians, and redefine how financial services show up in everyday life, not just in banking moments.
Commenting on the product launch, Miriam Olusanya, Managing Director of Guaranty Trust Bank Ltd, said: “Quick Airtime Loan reflects GTBank’s continued focus on delivering digital solutions that are relevant, accessible, and built around real customer needs. The solution underscores the power of a connected financial ecosystem, combining GTBank’s digital reach and lending expertise with the capabilities of HabariPay to deliver a smooth, end-to-end experience. By leveraging unique strengths across the Group, we are able to accelerate innovation, strengthen execution, and deliver a more integrated customer experience across all our service channels.”
Importantly, Quick Airtime Loan highlights GTCO’s evolution as a fully diversified financial services group. Leveraging HabariPay’s Squad, the solution reinforces the Group’s ecosystem proposition by bringing together banking, payment technology, and digital channels to deliver intuitive, one-stop experiences for customers.
With this new product launch, Guaranty Trust Bank is extending its legacy of pioneering digital-first solutions that have redefined customer access to financial services across the industry, building on the proven strength of its widely adopted QuickCredit offering and the convenience of the Bank’s iconic *737# USSD Banking platform.
About Guaranty Trust Bank
Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank) is the flagship banking franchise of GTCO Plc, a leading financial services group with a strong presence across Africa and the United Kingdom. The Bank is widely recognized for its leadership in digital banking, customer experience, and innovative financial solutions that deliver value to individuals, businesses, and communities.
About HabariPay
HabariPay is the payments fintech subsidiary of GTCO Plc, focused on enabling fast, secure, and accessible digital payments for individuals and businesses. By integrating payments and digital technology, HabariPay supports innovative services that make everyday financial interactions simpler and more seamless.
Enquiries:
GTCO
Group Corporate Communication
[email protected]
+234-1-2715227
www.gtcoplc.com
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