Business
Coronation Research issues 2019 Economic Outlook for Nigeria, titled ‘A Tale of Two Halves’
OIn its 2019 economic outlook report titled “A Tale of Two Halves”, Coronation Research – industry-leader and a subsidiary of Coronation Asset Management Limited–believes the narrative for the Nigerian economy in 2019is largely hinged around the performance of the oil.
Speaking on the report, Guy Czatoryski, Head of Coronation Research said: “We forecast an average US$58.00/bbl for 2019. An average much below this means the CBN will have to keep rates very high and could even challenge the Naira / US dollar exchange argument. An average much about US$60.00/bbl means the CBN will have confidence its reserve position and will be able to cut rates later in the year, in Q4, less likely Q3.
The current rate of N365.29/US$1, or close to it, is likely to prevail this year. The CBN’s policy is to defend the rate and with reserves at US$43.0bn, it is in a strong position to do so. We think the CBN will supply US dollars to the FX markets at an average rate of US$500m per month during 2019. This is compatible with maintaining a strong reserve level
If, as we think, the oil prices will average US$58.00/bbl this year, then we think the CBN will want to keep interest rates high. It will do this through its open market operations (OMO). We think OMOs will be issued in a range of 17.00% to 19.00% and that T-bill rates will be very close to this level during 2019.
We look at Nigeria in the international context of interest rates. Nigerian T-bill rates look competitive in the context of other emerging market rates – which is why the CBN is having success in attracting inflows of Foreign Portfolio Investment
However, if oil trades at substantially above US$60.00/bbl during 2019 then foreign investors in T-bills will be encouraged and the CBN might well be in a position to cut rates in Q4 2019, or even in Q3 2019
This could be helped by a downtrend in inflation. Inflation has proved stubborn and has trended at around 11.00% over the past few months. But if inflation trends, in 2019, towards the CBN’s target band of 6.00% to 9.00%, then it will help the CBN cut rates in order to stimulate the economy.
We are agnostic on politics. However, there is some evidence that in the period after general elections (2011 and 2015) yields in the T-bill market tend to fall. This might help persuade the CBN to cut OMO rates later in the year.
According to the report, GDP growth is expected to be 2.25% in 2019, as a result of very weak consumer demand, and a lack of growth in government expenditure relative to the 2018 budget.
Banks are unlikely to post large gains in profits this year. They are unlikely to experience much loan growth, given the weak economy and the fact that they can benefit from high T-bill yields. On the other hand, bank stocks are cheap in historical terms. So, if interest rates come down later in the year and the market conditions improve, then there could be a sharp rally in bank stocks later in the year.
Coronation Research is a subsidiary of Coronation Asset Management; a leading financial services company, licensed and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Nigeria.
Nigeria’s Inflation Drops to 15.10% as NBS Reports Deflationary Trend
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, marking a significant drop from 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The report also showed that month-on-month inflation recorded a deflationary trend of –2.88 per cent, representing a 3.42 percentage-point decrease compared to December 2025. Analysts say the development signals easing price pressures across key sectors of the economy.
Food inflation stood at 8.89 per cent year-on-year, down from 29.63 per cent in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, food prices declined by 6.02 per cent, reflecting lower costs in several staple commodities.
The data suggests a sustained downward trajectory in inflation over the past 12 months, pointing to improving macroeconomic stability.
The administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has consistently attributed recent economic adjustments to ongoing fiscal and monetary reforms aimed at stabilising prices, boosting agricultural output, and strengthening domestic supply chains.
Economic analysts note that while the latest figures indicate progress, sustaining the downward trend will depend on continued policy discipline, exchange rate stability, and improvements in food production and distribution.
The January report provides one of the clearest indications yet that inflationary pressures, which surged in early 2025, may be moderating.
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, marking a significant drop from 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The report also showed that month-on-month inflation recorded a deflationary trend of –2.88 per cent, representing a 3.42 percentage-point decrease compared to December 2025. Analysts say the development signals easing price pressures across key sectors of the economy.
Food inflation stood at 8.89 per cent year-on-year, down from 29.63 per cent in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, food prices declined by 6.02 per cent, reflecting lower costs in several staple commodities.
The data suggests a sustained downward trajectory in inflation over the past 12 months, pointing to improving macroeconomic stability.
The administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has consistently attributed recent economic adjustments to ongoing fiscal and monetary reforms aimed at stabilising prices, boosting agricultural output, and strengthening domestic supply chains.
Economic analysts note that while the latest figures indicate progress, sustaining the downward trend will depend on continued policy discipline, exchange rate stability, and improvements in food production and distribution.
The January report provides one of the clearest indications yet that inflationary pressures, which surged in early 2025, may be moderating.
Alpha Morgan to Host 19th Economic Review Webinar
In an economy shaped by constant shifts, the edge often belongs to those with the right information.
On Wednesday, February 25, 2026, Alpha Morgan Bank will host the 19th edition of its Economic Review Webinar, a high-level thought leadership session designed to equip businesses, investors, and individuals with timely financial and economic insight.
The session, which will hold live on Zoom at 10:00am WAT and will feature economist Bismarck Rewane, who will examine the key signals influencing Nigeria’s economic direction in 2026, including policy trends, market movements, and global developments shaping the local landscape.
With a consistent track record of delivering clarity in uncertain times, the Alpha Morgan Economic Review continues to provide practical context for decision-making in a dynamic environment.
Registration for the 19th Alpha Morgan Economic Review is free and can be completed via https://bit.ly/registeramerseries19
It is a bi-monthly platform that is open to the public and is held virtually.
Visit www.alphamorganbank to know more.
GTBank Launches Quick Airtime Loan at 2.95%
Guaranty Trust Bank Ltd (GTBank), the flagship banking franchise of GTCO Plc, Africa’s leading financial services group, today announced the launch of Quick Airtime Loan, an innovative digital solution that gives customers instant access to airtime when they run out of call credit and have limited funds in their bank accounts, ensuring customers can stay connected when it matters most.
In today’s always-on world, running out of airtime is more than a minor inconvenience. It can mean missed opportunities, disrupted plans, and lost connections, often at the very moment when funds are tight, and options are limited. Quick Airtime Loan was created to solve this problem, offering customers instant access to airtime on credit, directly from their bank. With Quick Airtime Loan, eligible GTBank customers can access from ₦100 and up to ₦10,000 by dialing *737*90#. Available across all major mobile networks in Nigeria, the service will soon expand to include data loans, further strengthening its proposition as a reliable on-demand platform.
For years, the airtime credit market has been dominated by Telcos, where charges for this service are at 15%. GTBank is now changing the narrative by offering a customer-centric, bank-led digital alternative priced at 2.95%. Built on transparency, convenience and affordability, Quick Airtime Loan has the potential to broaden access to airtime, deliver meaningful cost savings for millions of Nigerians, and redefine how financial services show up in everyday life, not just in banking moments.
Commenting on the product launch, Miriam Olusanya, Managing Director of Guaranty Trust Bank Ltd, said: “Quick Airtime Loan reflects GTBank’s continued focus on delivering digital solutions that are relevant, accessible, and built around real customer needs. The solution underscores the power of a connected financial ecosystem, combining GTBank’s digital reach and lending expertise with the capabilities of HabariPay to deliver a smooth, end-to-end experience. By leveraging unique strengths across the Group, we are able to accelerate innovation, strengthen execution, and deliver a more integrated customer experience across all our service channels.”
Importantly, Quick Airtime Loan highlights GTCO’s evolution as a fully diversified financial services group. Leveraging HabariPay’s Squad, the solution reinforces the Group’s ecosystem proposition by bringing together banking, payment technology, and digital channels to deliver intuitive, one-stop experiences for customers.
With this new product launch, Guaranty Trust Bank is extending its legacy of pioneering digital-first solutions that have redefined customer access to financial services across the industry, building on the proven strength of its widely adopted QuickCredit offering and the convenience of the Bank’s iconic *737# USSD Banking platform.
About Guaranty Trust Bank
Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank) is the flagship banking franchise of GTCO Plc, a leading financial services group with a strong presence across Africa and the United Kingdom. The Bank is widely recognized for its leadership in digital banking, customer experience, and innovative financial solutions that deliver value to individuals, businesses, and communities.
About HabariPay
HabariPay is the payments fintech subsidiary of GTCO Plc, focused on enabling fast, secure, and accessible digital payments for individuals and businesses. By integrating payments and digital technology, HabariPay supports innovative services that make everyday financial interactions simpler and more seamless.
Enquiries:
GTCO
Group Corporate Communication
[email protected]
+234-1-2715227
www.gtcoplc.com
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