Business
How Inside Jobs and Policy Shocks Trigger Nigeria’s Rising Loan Crisis
How Inside Jobs and Policy Shocks Trigger Nigeria’s Rising Loan Crisis
BY BLAISE UDUNZE
The latest in the Nigerian banking sector, as banks grapple with the recapitalization compliance deadline, is confronted with a familiar yet unsettling problem that stems from rising loan defaults amid expanding credit. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN’s) latest macroeconomic outlook of 2025 showed that the banking industry’s Non-Performing Loans ratio climbed to an estimated 7 percent, pushing the sector above the prudential ceiling of 5 percent.
This deterioration has occurred even as banks report improved credit availability and strong loan demand across households and corporates. At first glance of the development, the narrative seems to defy logic in a real sense. However, below this lies a deeper story of macroeconomic strain, policy-induced shocks, and, most worryingly, persistent corporate governance abuses that continue to erode asset quality from within.
To be clear, Nigeria’s current wave of loan defaults cannot be blamed on reckless borrowers alone. The operating environment has become unusually hostile. Inflation, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), recently suggests that headline inflation is cooling and growth indicators show tentative improvement; regrettably, more Nigerians are slipping below the poverty line, eroding household purchasing power and raising operating costs for businesses.
Especially in the small and medium-sized enterprises, though, the economic growth appears positive, but has been uneven and insufficient to offset cost pressures in this space. This has heralded weak consumer demand that has squeezed revenues across retail, manufacturing and services, causing shrinking cash flows and also loan obligations remain fixed or, in many cases, rise. In such conditions, repayment stress is inevitable.
Tight monetary policy has compounded the problem. The CBN’s aggressive rate hikes, aimed at restoring price and exchange-rate stability, have significantly raised lending rates. Variable-rate loans have become more expensive mid-tenure, and businesses that borrowed under lower-rate assumptions now face repayment shocks. Even otherwise viable firms have found themselves pushed into distress as interest expenses consume a growing share of income. Going by the official survey for the last quarter of 2025, it shows that financial pressure on borrowers has intensified as more borrowers are failing to repay loans across all major categories for both secured loans, unsecured loans and corporate loans.
Exchange-rate volatility has delivered another blow. The naira’s depreciation and FX reforms have sharply increased the burden on borrowers with dollar-denominated loans but naira income. Import-dependent businesses have seen costs surge, while FX scarcity continues to disrupt production and trade cycles. For many firms, the problem is not poor management but currency mismatch. Loans that were sustainable under a more stable exchange regime have become unserviceable almost overnight.
Layered onto these macro pressures is Nigeria’s weak business environment, which has further worsened the situation, alongside chronic power shortages forcing firms to rely on costly alternatives, logistics challenges and insecurity disrupting supply chains, and regulatory uncertainty complicates planning. More on the burner that has continued to heighten the challenges is the multiple taxation and compliance burdens, further compressing margins. In survival mode, businesses naturally prioritise payrolls, energy, and raw materials over debt service. Defaults, in this context, are often a symptom rather than the disease.
Yet while these systemic pressures explain much of the stress, they do not tell the whole story. A critical and often underemphasised driver of rising loan defaults lies within the banks themselves, most especially corporate governance abuse, which emanates particularly from insider-related lending. This is the uncomfortable truth that Nigeria’s banking sector has struggled to confront decisively.
Corporate governance, at its core, is about discipline, accountability, and oversight. In the banking context, it determines how credit decisions are made, how risks are assessed, and how early warning signs are addressed. Where governance is weak, loan quality inevitably suffers. Nigeria’s history offers painful lessons, especially the banking failures of the 1990s to the post-2009 crisis clean-up, insider lending and boardroom abuses have repeatedly emerged as central culprits.
Recent evidence suggests that the problem has not disappeared. Industry estimates indicate that a significant portion of bad loans remains linked to insider and related-party exposures. Former NDIC officials have disclosed that, historically, directors and insiders accounted for as much as 40 per cent of bad loans in deposit money banks, with a handful of institutions holding the majority of insider-related NPLs. It would be said that governance frameworks have improved since then, but enforcement gaps still persist.
Insider abuse manifests in several ways. Loans are extended to directors, executives, or connected parties with inadequate due diligence. Credit decisions are influenced by relationships rather than repayment capacity, and this has been one of the critical problems as collateral is overvalued, covenants are weak, and stress testing is often superficial. When early signs of distress emerge, enforcement is delayed, restructuring is repeated without fundamental improvement, and recoveries are treated with undue caution to avoid internal embarrassment or exposure.
The result is predictable. These loans default faster and are harder to recover. Worse still, they distort bank balance sheets by crowding out credit to productive sectors. When insiders default, the signal to the wider market is corrosive. Here, credit discipline is optional, and accountability is selective, and it further fuels moral hazard, encouraging strategic defaults even among borrowers who could otherwise repay.
Governance failures also weaken loan recovery processes. Poorly empowered risk and audit committees miss warning signs or fail to act decisively because the system has been built to fail. Legal remedies are pursued slowly, if at all. In an environment where judicial delays already undermine contract enforcement, such reluctance turns manageable problem loans into fully impaired assets. Over time, NPLs accumulate not because recovery is impossible, but because it is poorly pursued.
Compounding these internal weaknesses are government policy shifts and fiscal stress, which have become major external shock absorbers for bank balance sheets. Policy inconsistency has made cash flow planning increasingly difficult for borrowers. For instance, the sudden tax changes or aggressive enforcement drives will definitely alter cost structures overnight. Delays in government payments to contractors starve businesses of liquidity, and this will surely push otherwise solvent firms into default. In theory, although removing fuel subsidies, while economically justified, have often occurred without adequate transition buffers, transmitting immediate cost shocks across energy, transport, and consumer goods sectors.
The banking sector, heavily exposed to government-linked projects and regulated industries, absorbs these shocks directly. Loans tied to this sector showed that the banks are hugely exposed to oil and gas, power, and infrastructure; they are particularly vulnerable when fiscal pressures delay receivables or alter contract economics. For instance, a total of 9 banks’ exposure to the Oil & gas sector increased to N15. 6 trillion in 2024, representing about 94.4per cent increase from N10. 17 trillion reported in 2023 financial year. It is therefore no coincidence that NPL concentrations remain high in these sectors. In effect, fiscal stress is being intermediated through bank balance sheets.
When the CBN ended the special leniency measures known as forbearance in 2025, the real extent of loan stress in the banking industry became much clearer. For a longer time, pandemic-era reliefs allowed banks to renegotiate stressed loans without immediately classifying them as non-performing. While this helped preserve surface stability, it also masked underlying vulnerabilities. With the end of forbearance, many restructured facilities have crystallised as bad loans, pushing the industry NPL ratio above the prudential ceiling. This does not mean risk suddenly increased; it means it is now being recognised.
To the CBN’s credit, transparency has improved as the industry witnessed stricter classification rules and reduced forbearance have forced banks to confront economic truth rather than regulatory convenience. And, despite the challenges, the financial system appears to be generally sound because banks have enough cash to meet obligations and sufficient capital buffers that still exceed regulatory floors, while these buffers are under pressure. Though the ongoing recapitalisation efforts are expected to provide additional buffers.
However, stability should not be confused with health. Rising NPLs, even in a liquid system, carry real consequences. Banks must set aside provisions, eroding profitability and capital. Credit supply tightens as lenders grow cautious, starving the real economy of funding. One known fact is that the moment governance and transparency concerns grow, investors, particularly foreign ones, become less willing to commit capital and this loss of confidence eventually slows down overall economic growth.
The policy response, therefore, must go beyond macroeconomic management. While stabilising inflation and the exchange rate is essential, it is not sufficient. Governance reform within banks must be treated as a systemic priority, not a compliance exercise. Insider lending rules must be enforced rigorously, with real consequences for violations. Boards must be strengthened, not merely in composition but in independence and courage. Risk and audit committees must be empowered to challenge management and act early.
Equally important is addressing the fiscal-banking nexus. The government must recognise that policy volatility and payment delays are not costless. They translate directly into higher credit risk and weaker financial intermediation. A more predictable policy environment, timely settlement of obligations, and credible transition frameworks for major reforms would significantly reduce default risk without a single naira of direct intervention.
The Global Standing Instruction framework, which the CBN continues to promote, can help improve retail and MSME recoveries. But frameworks cannot substitute for culture. Credit discipline begins at the top. When banks lend to themselves without consequence, the entire system pays the price.
Nigeria’s rising loan defaults are not merely an economic statistic; they are a governance signal. They reflect a system under stress, yes, but also one still wrestling with old habits. If recapitalisation is to be meaningful, it must be accompanied by recapitalisation of trust, through transparency, accountability, and consistent policy. Otherwise, the cycle will repeat the same strong balance sheets on paper, weak loans underneath, and another reckoning deferred, but not avoided.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
GTCO Launches “Take on Squad” Hackathon 3.0, Opens Call for Applications
Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (“GTCO” or the “Group”) has announced the launch of “Take on Squad” Hackathon 3.0, reaffirming its commitment to fostering innovation, empowering talent, and supporting the development of technology-driven solutions that address real-world challenges across Africa.
Now in its third edition, the Hackathon brings together developers, designers and entrepreneurs across Nigeria in a collaborative environment to build practical solutions across key sectors including financial services, healthcare, commerce and digital inclusion. Under the theme “Smart Systems: The Intelligent Economy,” participants are challenged to design and build intelligent, data-driven solutions that transform how communities engage with money.
Applications are now open, and interested teams can find full guidelines and registration details on the official portal at https://squadco.com/hackathon.
Speaking on the initiative, Eduophon Japhet, Managing Director of HabariPay, stated: “Today’s dynamic, digitally driven world demands continuous innovation, which is shaping how economies grow, how businesses scale, and how societies evolve. Through “Take on Squad” Hackathon, we are deliberately investing in the ideas and talent that will define the future. Our objective is not simply to encourage innovation, but to enable its translation into scalable solutions that deliver real and measurable impact. This reflects GTCO’s role as a financial services platform that connects capital, capability, and creativity to drive sustainable progress.”
The social coding event remains a cornerstone of HabariPay’s mission to foster creativity and problem-solving among emerging tech talents. Competing teams will leverage Squad’s advanced APIs to create scalable digital tools that address everyday challenges faced by businesses and individuals.
Through initiatives such as this, GTCO continues to position itself at the intersection of finance, technology and enterprise, actively shaping the future of digital transformation in Africa.
About HabariPay
HabariPay Ltd is the fintech subsidiary of Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO), one of the largest financial services institutions in Africa with direct and indirect investments in a network of operating entities located in 10 countries across Africa and the United Kingdom.
Licensed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), our goal is to support SMEs, micro merchants, large corporations and other fintechs (Tech Stars) with the tools they need to thrive in an evolving digital economy and expand beyond their current market reach. HabariPay’s solutions include Squad, a full-scale digital payments toolkit to make in-person and online payments simpler, HabariPay Storefront, an e-commerce website to facilitate online purchases, Value-Added Services to help merchants access cost-effective and flexible airtime and data bundles to run their businesses, as well as a switching infrastructure that enables tech-focused businesses to optimise cost and make transactions more efficient.
HabariPay’s contributions to Accelerating Digital Acceptance in Africa have not gone unnoticed–it received Mastercard’s Innovative Mobile Payment Solution Award at TIA 2022 for its innovative payment solution, SquadPOS.
About Squad
Squad is a complete digital payments solution that is reliable, secure, and affordable, making receiving in-person and online payments simpler and convenient.
Thousands of merchants currently leverage Squad’s payment solutions for their daily business operations. Squad’s current products and service offerings include SquadPOS, Squad Payment Links, Squad Virtual Accounts, USSD, and E-Commerce Storefront.
Find out more at www.squadco.com.
Electric 8-Seater Tula Moto Keke Enters Nigerian Market, Targets Higher Operator Earnings
LAGOS — A new electric-powered tricycle with an expanded passenger capacity has been introduced into Nigeria’s urban transport sector, offering operators a potentially more profitable and eco-friendly alternative to conventional petrol-driven “keke.”
The newly launched 8-seater electric tricycle, now available in Lagos with plans for nationwide distribution, features a dual-row seating arrangement capable of accommodating up to eight passengers per trip—significantly higher than the standard three-passenger configuration common across the country.
Promoters of the innovation say the increased capacity is designed to boost daily earnings for operators, particularly amid persistent fluctuations in fuel prices. By running entirely on electric power, the vehicle eliminates dependence on petrol, reducing operating costs and shielding drivers from fuel price volatility.
According to the distributors, the tricycle is equipped with a durable battery system capable of covering extended distances on a single charge, making it suitable for commercial operations across high-traffic routes, residential estates, campuses, and marketplaces.
“The concept is straightforward—enable drivers to earn more while spending less,” a company representative stated. “With higher passenger capacity and zero fuel requirements, operators can maximise each trip without the burden of daily fuel expenses.”
Beyond its cost-saving potential, the electric keke is also said to require less maintenance than traditional models, offering additional long-term savings. Its quieter and smoother operation is expected to enhance passenger comfort and overall commuting experience.
Industry analysts note that the introduction of electric mobility solutions reflects a growing shift toward cleaner and more sustainable transportation alternatives in Nigeria, particularly in densely populated urban centres such as Lagos.
The distributors added that the product is currently available under a limited promotional offer, with delivery options across the country.
For inquiries and purchase: 📞 08153432071
📞 08035889103
Office Address:
📍 Plot 9, Block 113, Beulah Plaza,
Lekki–Epe Expressway,
Lekki Phase 1, Lagos
As transportation costs continue to rise and environmental concerns gain prominence, innovations like the electric 8-seater keke may signal an emerging transition toward more efficient and sustainable mobility solutions nationwide.
Business
A Pipeline, a Licence, and a Storm Brewing: Corruption allegations Draw global oil giant, Shell, Into Nigeria’s Reform Test
*A Pipeline, a Licence, and a Storm Brewing: Corruption allegations Draw global oil giant, Shell, Into Nigeria’s Reform Test*
By Deji Johnson and Mustapha Bello
t begins with a pipeline that should have been completed by June 2026. It widens into a regulatory dispute. And it now risks becoming a defining test of Nigeria’s gas reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
At the center is a stalled 80 kilometre gas pipeline from Sagamu to Ibadan, a project backed by over 100 million dollars in investment and built on a protected Gas Distribution Licence issued under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021. The licence granted NGML–NIPCO exclusive rights to distribute gas within Ibadan for 25years based on Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act.
On paper, the law is clear. On the ground, the situation is anything but.
For more than three months, construction has been halted following a stop work order issued by the Oyo State Government led by former Shell Contractor and engineer, Governor Seyi Makinde. No detailed public justification has been provided that aligns with existing federal approvals already secured for the project.
What might have remained a quiet regulatory disagreement has now escalated into something far more politically charged. How?
In recent remarks, Nigeria’s Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, who is of the same political party as Governor Seyi Makinde, made a pointed allegation that has since rippled across political and industry circles. He suggested that the Governor of Oyo State and Shell were in what could be described as an “unholy alliance.”
It is a serious claim. One that, if substantiated, would raise profound questions about the intersection of corporate influence, state level action, and federal law.
Neither Shell nor the Oyo State Government has publicly responded in detail to the allegation.
But the silence is now part of the story.
*THE SHELL QUESTION*
For Shell, this moment carries particular weight.
The company has operated in Nigeria for decades, building one of its most significant global portfolios in the Niger Delta. But that history is not without controversy. From corruption claims to environmental damage claims and community disputes amongst others, Shell has faced years of litigation and, in several high profile cases, adverse rulings tied to its operations in the region.
Those cases, many adjudicated in foreign courts, have shaped a negative reputation that continues to follow the company.
Now, a new question emerges.
Is Shell once again operating at the edge of Nigeria’s regulatory framework seeking to exert undue influence in circumventing Nigeria’s petroleum laws, or firmly within it?
Industry sources including a widely reported meeting between their representatives, Oyo State Government representatives and the newly appointed midstream and downstream chief executive, indicate that engagements involving Shell and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority could enable the company to enter a gas distribution zone already licensed to another operator in breach of the PIA.
If true, the implications are immediate and far reaching.
A licence meant to protect investors and investments in Nigeria’s gas space ceases to be exclusive against the dictates of the guiding laws. A framework begins to look flexible, and a reform risks appearing reversible.
To many, it seems more than just a commercial dispute and is not just about one company versus another.
Nigeria is in the middle of an energy transition where gas is expected to play a central role in powering industries, stabilising electricity supply, and reducing reliance on expensive diesel. President Bola Tinubu has emerged as a global champion of using gas as a transition fuel in Nigeria and Africa whilst rolling out elaborate but clearly defined plans to achieve it. Yet gas availability remains inconsistent, constraining power generation and limiting industrial output.
Projects like the Sagamu to Ibadan pipeline are designed to close that gap. To halt such a project is to delay not just infrastructure, but impact. To undermine its legal basis is to question the system that enabled it and to introduce competing claims within the same licensed zone is to risk regulatory confusion at a time when clarity is most needed.
This is where the issue moves from commercial to national because at stake is not only an investment, but the credibility of the reform architecture itself.
*OYO STATE AND THE FEDERAL QUESTION*
The role of the Oyo State Government adds another layer of complexity.
Energy regulation in Nigeria, particularly in the gas sector, is governed by federal law. Yet implementation often intersects with state authority, creating spaces where jurisdiction can blur.
The stop work order issued on the pipeline has become the clearest manifestation of that tension. Was it a regulatory necessity?
A precautionary measure? Or, as alleged by Minister Wike, part of a broader alignment with external interests? Without transparency, speculation fills the vacuum and the regulator must avoid finding itself mired in such allegations.
*QUESTIONS THAT WILL NOT GO AWAY*
For Shell, the questions are now direct and unavoidable:
Is Shell, a global energy giant, seeking to operate within the Ibadan gas distribution zone already licensed to NGML–NIPCO?
What assurances, if any, has it received from regulators or state actors?
How does it reconcile such actions with the exclusivity provisions of the PIA?
For the regulator, NMDPRA:
Can a Gas Distribution Licence be effectively shared, diluted, or overridden after issuance? According to Nigerian laws, the answer is No.
What precedent does this set for Nigeria’s gas infrastructure market?
For the Oyo State Government:
On what legal grounds does the stop work order stand, given federal approvals already in place?
And how does this action align with national energy priorities or the state’s gas needs?
Nigeria has spent the last two years telling a new story to the world. A story of reform, of discipline, of a country ready to compete for global capital. And it has worked so far with stability returning to Nigeria’s economy and over $20bn of energy investments looking to enter the country in the short to midterm.
But reforms are not tested in policy papers. They are tested in moments like this.
Moments where law meets influence, investment meets interference and promise meets pressure.
For Shell, long mired in issues surrounding ethical operations in Nigeria, this is more than a business decision. It is a reputational crossroads.
For Nigeria, it is something even larger. Whether the country’s laws will hold when they are most challenged or Whether its reforms will stand when they are most inconvenient or even whether Nigeria’s energy investments future will be shaped by the rules of law, adherence to regulatory protections and provisions or by unethical and corrupt relationships.
Until those questions are answered clearly, publicly, and decisively, the pipeline in Ibadan will remain more than steel in the ground.
It will remain a symbol of a country still deciding which path it truly intends to follow. Nigeria must act quickly and decisively because the world is watching.
-
society7 months agoReligion: Africa’s Oldest Weapon of Enslavement and the Forgotten Truth
-
news4 months agoWHO REALLY OWNS MONIEPOINT? The $290 Million Deal That Sold Nigeria’s Top Fintech to Foreign Interests
-
society6 months ago“You Are Never Without Help” – Pastor Gebhardt Berndt Inspires Hope Through Empower Church (Video)
-
celebrity radar - gossips2 months agoDr. Chris Okafor Returns with Power and Fire of the Spirit -Mounts Grace Nation Altar with Fresh Anointing and Restoration Grace on February 1, 2026