Business
Import Bans, Empty Boasts and Economic Delusion: Tinubu’s Recipe for Nigeria’s Economic Disaster
Import Bans, Empty Boasts and Economic Delusion: Tinubu’s Recipe for Nigeria’s Economic Disaster
By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Sahara Weekly Nigeria
When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu declared that banning the importation of foreign goods would “revive” Nigeria’s economy, one would think the man had a Nobel Prize in economic policy. Instead, what we get is textbook delusion coming from a self-proclaimed “first-class accountant” from Chicago State University, a claim with no official transcript, certificate or academic record in public view to validate it. In a time when Nigeria urgently needs innovative, export-driven policies, Tinubu is trying to build an economic miracle on import bans, slogans and the illusion of industrial rebirth in a country plagued by power failure, insecurity and corruption.
The Import Ban Illusion
Let’s start with the cold, hard facts. NIGERIA is not an INDUSTRIAL NATION. According to World Bank data (2024), manufacturing contributes less than 9% to Nigeria’s GDP. The country imports over 80% of its essential goods, including food, pharmaceuticals, refined petroleum and machinery. In such a context, banning imports without ensuring local capacity is not “patriotic policy” but economic sabotage.
Tinubu’s administration recently restricted the importation of over 40 items, including rice, cement, toothpicks and even poultry products. His argument? Local production must be encouraged. The problem, however, is that there’s no infrastructure to support that ambition. As of Q1 2025, Nigeria still suffers from epileptic electricity supply, averaging just 4,000 MW for over 200 million people, according to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission. For comparison, South Africa, with a population of 62 million, produces over 45,000 MW (Eskom, 2024 data).
No economy thrives under darkness. You cannot ban the importation of toothpicks and expect bamboo to magically morph into industry without electricity, investment or skilled labor.
Failed Economic Patriotism
The Tinubu administration is recycling the failed policies of past governments. We saw this playbook under former President Muhammadu Buhari, another disciple of economic isolationism. The Central Bank of Nigeria, under Godwin Emefiele, banned 41 items from forex access, yet inflation soared, local substitutes remained expensive and smuggling boomed. The result? Nigeria became the poverty capital of the world in 2018.
Tinubu is repeating that cycle. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), food inflation stood at 40.53% as of April 2025, with staple items like rice, bread and oil becoming unaffordable for millions. The average Nigerian is now spending over 70% of their income on food—a clear indicator of economic dysfunction.
“The idea that a country can simply ban its way to prosperity is not just misguided; it’s reckless” said Dr. Kingsley Moghalu, former Deputy Governor of the CBN. “You need to create an enabling environment not a restrictive one. Industrialization thrives on productivity not prohibitions.”
A Mouthful of Academic Fraud?
While the economic policy is bad enough, the president’s intellectual credentials are also under serious scrutiny. Tinubu continues to tout his supposed “first-class” status from Chicago State University (CSU). Yet the institution, under subpoena in 2023, confirmed Tinubu did not graduate with honors and discrepancies exist between submitted documents and university records.
As Nigerian lawyer and public affairs analyst Dele Farotimi noted during a Channels TV interview:
“We are being governed by ghosts, people with no verifiable history, no transparency, yet they want to dictate economic truths to over 200 million people.”
How can a man who allegedly forged his way through academic corridors be trusted to engineer genuine economic transformation?
Export, Not Ban: The Real Path to Growth
Rather than banning imports, any serious leader would focus on boosting non-oil exports, supporting SMEs and fixing power, roads and insecurity. For instance, Vietnam (once as poor as Nigeria) embraced export-led growth. According to the International Monetary Fund, Vietnam’s exports in 2023 stood at $371 billion, compared to Nigeria’s paltry $67 billion, 85% of which was crude oil.
In the words of Professor Pat Utomi, political economist and founder of the Centre for Values in Leadership:
“We don’t have a productive economy; we have a transactional economy. Until we invest in human capital, reduce power costs and create policies that invite rather than repel investment, we will keep declining.”
Tinubu’s Propaganda Economics
Let’s also talk about perception. Tinubu’s administration spends more time defending economic disaster than solving it. The presidential spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, recently claimed that the economy is “on track” and that “Nigerians should endure.” This while the naira trades at ₦1,580 to $1 on the official market and youth unemployment hovers at 53.4% (NBS Q1 2025 report).
The government is delusional and more obsessed with optics than outcomes. The average Nigerian doesn’t care about economic jargon. They care about whether they can afford a bag of rice, fuel their car, pay school fees and stay safe.
As Nigerian writer and columnist Gimba Kakanda aptly wrote:
“The tragedy of Nigeria’s leadership is that they see national sacrifice as something the people alone must endure, while they dine on luxury.”
No Vision, No Results
To put it bluntly: Tinubu’s administration is a regime without vision. Import bans are the policies of lazy governments & those without the courage to compete, reform or innovate. These are leaders who cannot think beyond customs tariffs and control levers.
We’ve seen this movie before. In 1984, Buhari as military Head of State implemented similar bans. Nigeria became a nation of smugglers. In 2015, he repeated it. The economy crashed. Now Tinubu is borrowing from that same dusty playbook.
Even in India, a country once famous for import substitution, policymakers have long since abandoned that model in favor of “Make in India” a strategy built on exports, competitiveness and infrastructure.
What Nigeria needs is a Productive Economy and not a prohibited one.
The Final Blow: A Dangerous Gamble
Tinubu’s economic policy is not just wrong but it’s dangerous. Banning imports without providing alternatives is a betrayal of the masses. It punishes consumers, stifles innovation and invites corruption at the borders.
The president wants applause for forcing Nigerians to buy inferior, expensive local goods they don’t want, while politicians and their families still travel abroad for healthcare, holidays and education. What hypocrisy.
Nigeria deserves better. We deserve a leader with real academic credibility, real economic vision and real empathy, not one obsessed with clinging to propaganda while the nation bleeds.
As Chinua Achebe once warned: “The trouble with Nigeria is simply and squarely a FAILURE of LEADERSHIP.”
And Bola Ahmed Tinubu is living proof of that FAILURE…first-class in name only, and utterly bankrupt in strategy.
Business
BUA Foods Records 91% Surge in Profit After Tax, Hits ₦508bn in 2025
BUA Foods Records 91% Surge in Profit After Tax, Hits ₦508bn in 2025
By femi Oyewale
Business
Adron Homes Unveils “Love for Love” Valentine Promo with Exciting Discounts, Luxury Gifts, and Travel Rewards
Adron Homes Unveils “Love for Love” Valentine Promo with Exciting Discounts, Luxury Gifts, and Travel Rewards
In celebration of the season of love, Adron Homes and Properties has announced the launch of its special Valentine campaign, “Love for Love” Promo, a customer-centric initiative designed to reward Nigerians who choose to express love through smart, lasting real estate investments.
The Love for Love Promo offers clients attractive discounts, flexible payment options, and an array of exclusive gift items, reinforcing Adron Homes’ commitment to making property ownership both rewarding and accessible. The campaign runs throughout the Valentine season and applies to the company’s wide portfolio of estates and housing projects strategically located across Nigeria.
Speaking on the promo, the company’s Managing Director, Mrs Adenike Ajobo, stated that the initiative is aimed at encouraging individuals and families to move beyond conventional Valentine gifts by investing in assets that secure their future. According to the company, love is best demonstrated through stability, legacy, and long-term value—principles that real estate ownership represents.
Under the promo structure, clients who make a payment of ₦100,000 receive cake, chocolates, and a bottle of wine, while those who pay ₦200,000 are rewarded with a Love Hamper. Payments of ₦500,000 attract a Love Hamper plus cake, and clients who pay ₦1,000,000 enjoy a choice of a Samsung phone or a Love Hamper with cake.
The rewards become increasingly premium as commitment grows. Clients who pay ₦5,000,000 receive either an iPad or an all-expenses-paid romantic getaway for a couple at one of Nigeria’s finest hotels, which includes two nights’ accommodation, special treats, and a Love Hamper. A payment of ₦10,000,000 comes with a choice of a Samsung Z Fold 7, three nights at a top-tier resort in Nigeria, or a full solar power installation.
For high-value investors, the Love for Love Promo delivers exceptional lifestyle experiences. Clients who pay ₦30,000,000 on land are rewarded with a three-night couple’s trip to Doha, Qatar, or South Africa, while purchasers of any Adron Homes house valued at ₦50,000,000 receive a double-door refrigerator.
The promo covers Adron Homes’ estates located in Lagos, Shimawa, Sagamu, Atan–Ota, Papalanto, Abeokuta, Ibadan, Osun, Ekiti, Abuja, Nasarawa, and Niger States, offering clients the opportunity to invest in fast-growing, strategically positioned communities nationwide.
Adron Homes reiterated that beyond the incentives, the campaign underscores the company’s strong reputation for secure land titles, affordable pricing, strategic locations, and a proven legacy in real estate development.
As Valentine’s Day approaches, Adron Homes encourages Nigerians at home and in the diaspora to take advantage of the Love for Love Promo to enjoy exceptional value, exclusive rewards, and the opportunity to build a future rooted in love, security, and prosperity.
Business
Why Nigeria’s Banks Still on Shaky Ground with Big Profits, Weak Capital
*Why Nigeria’s Banks Still on Shaky Ground with Big Profits, Weak Capital*
*BY BLAISE UDUNZE*
Despite the fragile 2024 economy grappling with inflation, currency volatility, and weak growth, Nigeria’s banking industry was widely portrayed as successful and strong amid triumphal headlines. The figures appeared to signal strength, resilience, and superior management as the Tier-1 banks such as Access Bank, Zenith Bank, GTBank, UBA, and First Bank of Nigeria, collectively reported profits approaching, and in some cases exceeding, N1 trillion. Surprisingly, a year later, these same banks touted as sound and solid are locked in a frenetic race to the capital markets, issuing rights offers and public placements back-to-back to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s N500 billion recapitalisation thresholds.
The contradiction is glaring. If Nigeria’s biggest banks are so profitable, why are they unable to internally fund their new capital requirements? Why have no fewer than 27 banks tapped the capital market in quick succession despite repeated assurances of balance-sheet robustness? And more fundamentally, what do these record profits actually say about the real health of the banking system?
The recapitalisation directive announced by the CBN in 2024 was ambitious by design. Banks with international licences were required to raise minimum capital to N500 billion by March 2026, while national and regional banks faced lower but still substantial thresholds ranging from N200 billion to N50 billion, respectively. Looking at the policy, it was sold as a modern reform meant to make banks stronger, more resilient in tough times, and better able to support major long-term economic development. In theory, strong banks should welcome such reforms. In practice, the scramble that followed has exposed uncomfortable truths about the structure of bank profitability in Nigeria.
At the heart of the inconsistency is a fundamental misunderstanding often encouraged by the banks themselves between profits and capital. Unknown to many, profitability, no matter how impressive, does not automatically translate into regulatory capital. Primarily, the CBN’s recapitalisation framework actually focuses on money paid in by shareholders when buying shares, fresh equity injected by investors over retained earnings or profits that exist mainly on paper.
This distinction matters because much of the profit surge recorded in 2024 and early 2025 was neither cash-generative nor sustainably repeatable. A significant portion of those headline banks’ profits reported actually came from foreign exchange revaluation gains following the sharp fall of the naira after exchange-rate unification. The industry witnessed that banks’ holding dollar-denominated assets their books showed bigger numbers as their balance sheets swell in naira terms, creating enormous paper profits without a corresponding improvement in underlying operational strength. These gains inflated income statements but did little to strengthen core capital, especially after the CBN barred banks from using FX revaluation gains for dividends or routine operations. In effect, banks looked richer without becoming stronger.
Beyond FX effects, Nigerian banks have increasingly relied on non-interest income fees, charges, and transaction levies to drive profitability. While this model is lucrative, it does not necessarily deepen financial intermediation or expand productive lending. High profits built on customer charges rather than loan growth offer limited support for long-term balance-sheet expansion. They also leave banks vulnerable when macroeconomic conditions shift, as is now happening.
Indeed, the recapitalisation exercise coincides with a turning point in the monetary cycle. The extraordinary conditions that supported bank earnings in 2024 and 2025 are beginning to unwind. Analysts now warn that Nigerian banks are approaching earnings reset, as net interest margins the backbone of traditional banking profitability, come under sustained pressure.
Renaissance Capital, in a January note, projects that major banks including Zenith, GTCO, Access Holdings, and UBA will struggle to deliver earnings growth in 2026 comparable to recent performance.
In a real sense, the CBN is expected to lower interest rates by 400 to 500 basis points because inflation is slowing down, and this means that banks will earn less on loans and government bonds, but they may not be able to quickly lower the interest they pay on deposits or other debts. The cash reserve requirements are still elevated, which does not earn interest; banks can’t easily increase or expand lending investments to make up for lower returns. The implications are significant. Net interest margin, the difference between what banks earn on loans and investments and what they pay on deposits, is poised to contract. Deposit competition is intensifying as lenders fight to shore up liquidity ahead of recapitalisation deadlines, pushing up funding costs. At the same time, yields on treasury bills and bonds, long a safe and lucrative haven for banks are expected to soften in a lower-rate environment. The result is a narrowing profit cushion just as banks are being asked to carry far larger equity bases.
Compounding this challenge is the fading of FX revaluation windfalls. With the naira relatively more stable in early 2026, the non-cash gains that once flattered bank earnings have largely evaporated. What remains is the less glamorous reality of core banking operations: credit risk management, cost efficiency, and genuine loan growth in a sluggish economy. In this new environment, maintaining headline profits will be far harder, even before accounting for the dilutive impact of recapitalisation.
That dilution is another underappreciated consequence of the capital rush. Massive share issuances mean that even if banks manage to sustain absolute profit levels, earnings per share and return on equity are likely to decline. Zenith, Access, UBA, and others are dramatically increasing their share counts. The same earnings pie is now being divided among many more shareholders, making individual returns leaner than during the pre-recapitalisation boom. For investors, the optics of strong profits may soon give way to the reality of weaker per-share performance.
Yet banks have pressed ahead, not only out of regulatory necessity but also strategic calculation.
During this period of recapitalization, investors are interested in the stock market with optimism, especially about bank shares, as banks are raising fresh capital, and this makes it easier to attract investments. This has become a season for the management teams to seize the moment to raise funds at relatively attractive valuations, strengthen ownership positions, and position themselves for post-recapitalisation dominance. In several cases, major shareholders and insiders have increased their stakes, as projected in the media, signalling confidence in long-term prospects even as near-term returns face pressure.
There is also a broader structural ambition at play. Well-capitalised banks can take on larger single obligor exposures, finance infrastructure projects, expand regionally, and compete more credibly with pan-African and global peers. From this perspective, recapitalisation is not merely about compliance but about reshaping the competitive hierarchy of Nigerian banking. What will be witnessed in the industry is that those who succeed will emerge larger, fewer, and more powerful. Those that fail will be forced into consolidation, retreat, or irrelevance.
For the wider economy, the outcome is ambiguous. Stronger banks with deeper capital buffers could improve systemic stability and enhance Nigeria’s ability to fund long-term development. The point is that while merging or consolidating banks may make them safer, it can also harm the market and the economy because it will reduce competition, let a few banks dominate, and encourage them to earn easy money from bonds and fees instead of funding real businesses. The truth be told, injecting more capital into the banks without complementary reforms in credit infrastructure, risk-sharing mechanisms, and fiscal discipline, isn’t enough as the aforementioned reforms are also needed.
The rush as exposed in this period, is that the moment Nigerian banks started raising new capital, the glaring reality behind their reported profits became clearer, that profits weren’t purely from good management, while the financial industry is not as sound and strong as its headline figures. The fact that trillion-naira profit banks must return repeatedly to shareholders for fresh capital is not a sign of excess strength, but of structural imbalance.
With the deadline for banks to raise new capital coming soon, by 31 March 2026, the focus has shifted from just raising N500 billion. N200 billion or N50 billion to think about the future shape and quality of Nigeria’s financial industry, or what it will actually look like afterward. Will recapitalisation mark a turning point toward deeper intermediation, lower dependence on speculative gains, and stronger support for economic growth? Or will it simply reset the numbers while leaving underlying incentives unchanged?
The answer will define the next chapter of Nigerian banking long after the capital market roadshows have ended and the profit headlines have faded.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
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