Insecurity: Situating Buratai’s ’COVID-19 Style Lockdown’ Proposal

By Louis Achi

Last week, Nigeria’s former Chief of Army Staff, and ex-Ambassador to the Republic of Benin, Lt. General Tukur Buratai (retd.), proposed the urgent adoption of strategic, intelligence-driven lockdowns as part of a new framework to counter terrorism, banditry, and other forms of violent criminality threatening national stability.

The former Army boss urged the federal government to consider a nationwide mobilisation similar to the COVID-19 lockdown to defeat terrorism, banditry, and kidnapping feeding the bloody infamy ravaging the nation.

Buratai who spoke in a candid interview with Channels Television last Friday, argued that insecurity should not be left to the military alone but treated as a national crisis requiring collective sacrifice. His words: “When there are national crises, we need to mobilise everybody, not just the military alone. Look at COVID-19 – how much was spent, how much was invested into information, communication, advertisement, palliatives, and preventive measures.

“The whole nation was locked down because of COVID-19. We can do the same thing. We can lock down this country to make sure that everybody concentrates and deals with this cankerworm of so-called terrorists and bandits.”

General Buratai further noted that before leaving office as Chief of Army Staff, he had warned that the insurgency could last longer than expected if a long-term strategy was not adopted. “Just before I left office, and immediately after I was appointed ambassador to the Republic of Benin, I sent a note of warning that this insurgency may last longer. It is not something that you just wish away. We really need to have a long-term plan.”

In summation, Buratai maintained that beyond military campaigns, citizens must be mobilised “psychologically, through social media, press, and community support” to overcome what he described as the “so-called terrorists and bandits.” Understandably, Buratai’s position has provoked considerable debate among various stakeholders.

The battle-scarred General’s novel proposition provides a new discursive lens to stimulate new modes of analysis on effective strategies to cage violent extremism. His unconventional position fundamentally represents a concept note that should transition to a detailed, actionable engagement strategy for the federal government to fast-track a valid response leading to the erasure of the reign of bloody infamy and destructive erosion of Nigeria’s sovereignty.

This quirky scenario has perhaps understandably eroded public trust in state authority and demands an urgent, coordinated, effective, disruptive strategy that can destroy criminal networks – simultaneously safeguarding civilian lives. There is more.

It is beyond dispute that Nigeria currently faces an overlapping mosaic of extreme, regressive violence. These include Boko Haram and ISWAP insurgency in the Northeast; banditry, mass kidnappings, and illegal mining in the Northwest; farmer–herder clashes and communal violence in the North Central; separatist-linked attacks in the Southeast; oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and cult-related violence in the South-South; and rising cases of kidnappings and armed robbery in the Southwest.

But first, to highlight the urgency of Buratai’s proposal, it would be germane to provide some context in terms of very recent informed positions on caging insecurity in Nigeria and Africa at large. Just this week, United Nations Deputy Secretary-General, Amina Mohammed, called on African defence leaders to take decisive ownership of the continent’s security challenges during her address at the inaugural African Chiefs of Defence Forum in Abuja on Monday.

Mohammed, a former Nigerian Minister of Environment, accurately painted a stark picture of Africa’s security landscape, stating, “The continent accounts for the majority of global terrorism deaths, with attacks in West Africa’s coastal states surging by 250% in just two years. In the Sahel, 14,000 schools were shuttered by conflict last year, threatening an entire generation’s future.”

Lansana Kouyaté, former Prime Minister of Guinea, who proposed innovative security financing through public-private partnerships during the forum, echoed Mohammed’s call for collective action, stating, “This historic gathering of defence chiefs from all 54 African nations underscores that without peace, there is no development.”

While speaking at the 50th anniversary dinner of the Nigerian Defence Academy’s 18th Regular Course in Abuja last month, the National Security Adviser, NSA, Nuhu Ribadu, revealed that over 47,000 lives were lost to insecurity in northern Nigeria before President Bola Tinubu took office in May 2023. He stated that the country was on the brink of collapse at the time, grappling with multiple crises that threatened its cohesion and survival.

He said, “The security landscape we inherited as a government in 2023 was a sobering reality. It was threatening the very cohesion, stability, and integrity of our Nigerian state. We inherited five intractable security challenges that had brought our nation to the brink.” These include Boko Haram insurgency in the North-East, banditry in the North-West and North-Central, separatist agitations in the South-East, economic sabotage in the Niger Delta, and communal conflicts in states like Benue and Plateau.

The NSA went on to paint a positive, if not outright rosy picture of the security situation under his principal, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Although it could not be denied that nine efforts are being made by the current administration to reinstate widespread infamy, Nigeria is far from the safe, progressive haven its citizens are entitled to.

On his part, former Minister of Aviation Osita Chidoka recently weighed in on the ravaging insecurity, claiming that Nigeria’s situation is even more dire than that of countries embroiled in war. Chidoka expressed deep concern over the rampant insecurity, widespread hunger, and severe economic struggles plaguing the nation, emphasizing that citizens are enduring daily hardships as if the country is under siege. He cautioned that if immediate action isn’t taken, Nigeria could face total collapse.

General Buratai’s proposal, not surprisingly, spawned several responses from different concerned stakeholders. The most notable and informed reaction perhaps, is that from the Crest Research and Development Institute (CRADI) and authored by conflict and security expert, Isa Mohammed.

CRADI had responded by convening a Policy Lab under its Co-Creation and Innovation Lab (CCIL), bringing together security practitioners, conflict analysts, governance experts, humanitarian actors, and community stakeholders.

The Lab drew lessons from Nigeria’s COVID-19 lockdown, at the core of Baratai’s proposal which, despite its economic costs, succeeded in reducing certain forms of crime and giving security forces a clearer view of population movements. Participants agreed that lockdowns can be effective, but only if targeted, intelligence-driven, and sensitive to humanitarian needs.

According to CRADI’s Isa Mohammed, “Conventional military campaigns alone cannot address these overlapping threats. Strategic lockdowns, when carefully designed, can restrict terrorist mobility, cut off supply lines, and create the operational space for intelligence-led security operations.”

The body strongly cautioned against a nationwide shutdown, arguing it would cripple livelihoods without delivering sustainable security. Instead, CRADI recommended zonal lockdowns tailored to local dynamics:

Northeast: Seal borders with Niger, Chad, and Cameroon; enforce curfews around the Lake Chad Basin and Mandara Mountains; Northwest: Impose lockdowns in forest belts such as Rugu, Kamuku, and Birnin Gwari; ban illegal mining; restrict rural mobility; North Central: Enforce lockdowns in conflict flashpoints; secure farmlands with patrols; regulate grazing routes to reduce clashes; and Southeast: Introduce night curfews; restrict unauthorized assemblies; secure major highways against attacks.

For South-South C, RADI recommended the implementation of surveillance lockdowns along pipeline corridors and waterways to combat oil theft and cult-related violence; and Southwest: Apply tactical restrictions in forest reserves, especially the Ondo–Ogun axis, which has become a haven for kidnappers.

Strategy and security are core elements for achieving sustainable peace, especially for a developing country like Nigeria. Cut to the bone, when security is absent, it validly suggests the strategies adopted are faulty and need to be reviewed. As Nigerians seek to achieve sustainable growth and development, the citizens must have the requisite state of freedom and peace, amongst others, to lead meaningful and productive lives.

CRADI’s Mohammed succinctly cut to the heart of the debate when he asserted that, “General Buratai’s call for a strategic lockdown is an urgent reminder that Nigeria must rethink its approach to insecurity. If implemented with strong oversight, humanitarian sensitivity, and clear timelines, strategic lockdowns can help restore state authority, protect vulnerable communities, and lay the foundation for peacebuilding and long-term stability.”

The foregoing scenario can fundamentally validate General Buratai’s proposition to the federal government, especially when international partners such as the United Nations, African Union, and ECOWAS play an imperative role as potential providers of technical and logistical support.