Politics
Kogi Guber: Certificate forgery scandal, provision of false information to INEC hit SDP; Yakubu, Abenemi in trouble
Kogi Guber: Certificate forgery scandal, provision of false information to INEC hit SDP; Yakubu, Abenemi in trouble
Three weeks to the conduct of the governorship election in Kogi State, an eligibility crisis has erupted in the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Murtala Yakubu (Ajaka) and Abenemi Sam Ranti are the governorship and deputy governorship candidates of the party for the November 11 election.
But, it is no longer at ease with the duo and their supporters as allegations of Perjury, False Declaration, Use of False Document and Possession of Forged Record are not only drizzling literally on their ambition, they are pouring seriously and obliterating any moral compass they have to stand for election and canvass for votes.
The latest scandal is now at the centre of every discussion among voters in the Confluence State. With official confirmation by the West African Examination Council (WAEC) to the Department of State Services (DSS) that the running mate allegedly forged the 1979 GCE secondary school certificate he presented to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the duo may have kissed their dream of occupying the Government House, Lokoja bye bye.
In fact, legally, the candidate and his running mate are not on the ballot, going by similar cases in the past.
Documents obtained by Freedom Online in the build up to the election show that it is going to be an exercise in futility for the duo and they may have to wait till the 2027 election, that is, if genuine documents certified by government agencies are presented.
In essence, all votes cast for Yakubu and Abenemi on November 11 will eventually be declared by the Tribunal as wasted, win or lose, due to the established legal incapacity of Abenemi and SDP’s nomination as a whole unless they are able to provide admissible facts to the contrary.
Due to the alleged illegality involved in the documents submitted, the Director of Public Prosecution, Kogi State Ministry of Justice has preferred a four-count charge bordering on Perjury, False Declaration, Use of False Document, and Possession of Forged Record contrary to the provisions of the Kogi State Penal Code Law, 2019, against Abenemi Sam Ranti at the High Court of Justice, Kogi State.
Documents obtained by Freedom Online have shown that Yakubu and Abenemi are neck deep in allegations of submission of false information and forged certificate to INEC.
In a petition dated June 2023 and directed to the DSS and the Nigeria Police Force (NPF), it was also alleged Yakubu might have submitted a forged certificate to INEC as the Date of Birth submitted to the electoral body on his Form EC9 – (Substitute) was 13/02/1978, whereas the Date of Birth on the WAEC certificate submitted to INEC upon verification shows that the Date of Birth on same is 2/11/1978. It was, therefore, alleged that Yakubu might have submitted false evidence on oath to INEC.
On July 5, 2023, one Shaibu O. Abdullahi, in a petition written to the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) and the DSS, alleged that the “WAEC GCE Notification of Result with number 14709101 issued on 16/05/80 to one ‘Abenimi Ranti Samuel’ in respect of a General Certificate of Education, Ordinary Level December 1979 Examination’ is forged or fake.” The said Notification of Result was submitted to INEC by Abenemi for the November 11 election.
Details have now emerged that the DSS investigated the allegation of forged Certificate, and found that the candidate number stated on the said GCE Notification of Result submitted by the Deputy Governorship candidate belongs to another person and not Abenemi.
In response to official enquiries by the DSS, WAEC reportedly confirmed that the Deputy Governorship candidate was not the owner of the Candidate Number and the result contained in the GCE Examination Notification of Result submitted to INEC.
It was revealed that the candidate with the number sat for five subjects instead of the two stated on Abenemi’s alleged forged certificate.
Investigation also revealed that in his Form EC9-(Substitute)(Affidavit in Support of Personal Particulars), which the Deputy Governorship Candidate submitted to INEC on 26/5/2023, he stated on oath that he possesses a WAEC Certificate obtained in 1979, and, as evidence, attached the allegedly forged GCE 1979 Notification of Result.
His form EC9 also showed that while he claimed on oath to have a First School Leaving Certificate obtained in 1971, he did not attach same to the Form EC9. Hence, the only Certificate submitted by Abenemi in support of his qualification for the office of Deputy Governor of Kogi State was the allegedly forged 1979 GCE Notification of Result.
Consequent upon the foregoing, the Director of Public Prosecution, Kogi State Ministry of Justice preferred a four-count charge bordering on Perjury, False Declaration, Use of False Document, and Possession of Forged Record contrary to the provisions of the Kogi State Penal Code Law, 2019, against Abenemi at the High Court of Justice, Kogi State.
While the proceedings are ongoing, the development has raised concerns as to the eligibility or legal capacity of the candidates to participate in the elections and the overall effect of the alleged forgery should the SDP win the election.
With or without the conviction of Abenemi by the court, the fact of the forgery, having been confirmed by WAEC, has already created a burden for SDP and its candidates. While the SDP will not be precluded from participating in the election on the basis of the forgery, it is generally believed that there is no useful value to the party’s participation.
More or less, it would amount to an exercise in futility, according to political analysts and legal experts.
Interpreting the scenario, a frontline lawyer and activist from one of the Northern states, who spoke with Freedom Online on the condition of anonymity, said, “All votes cast for the party at the election will eventually be declared by the Tribunal as wasted votes, win or lose, due to the established legal incapacity of Abenemi and SDP’s nomination as a whole.
“The reasons for the foregoing prognosis are very clear: Section 177 of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria prescribes the qualification criteria for a person to contest as a Governor and Deputy Governor (see 187(2)). One of such criteria (paragraph 177(d)) is that such a person ‘has been educated up to at least School Certificate level or its equivalent.’
“Hence, if a person does not have a minimum requirement or qualification to contest for the position of Governor/Deputy Governor of a State, it means that he is not qualified to so contest for the position.
In the case of Abenemi who has only presented a GCE Notification of Result, which has been verified to be forged by WAEC, it is clear that he is not qualified to contest for the position of Deputy Governor, hence the joint ticket, automatically becomes invalid by virtue of Section 187(2) of the 1999 Constitution(as amended).
“Another reason is the fact that Section 182(1)(j) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) which provides for grounds for disqualification of a person from contesting the seat of Governor/Deputy Governor of a State specifically disqualifies a person who has provided a forged certificate to INEC in the following words: No person shall be qualified for election to the office of Governor of a State if … he has presented a forged certificate to the Independent National Electoral Commission.’
“The foregoing provisions which are clear and unambiguous and which must be given their natural meaning gives no room for any doubt as to the fatal effect of the forged GCE Notification of Result submitted to INEC by Abenemi.
“It is clear that in the event of the SDP winning the elections, the victory will no doubt be nullified on the basis of the candidates’ legal incapacity occasioned by non-qualification and presentation of forged certificate to INEC by Abenemi.
“This is reminiscent of the Supreme Court case of PDP & Ors v. Degi-Eremienyo & Ors (2020) LPELR-49734(SC) (Pp. 8-16 paras. D-D) where the joint ticket of David Lyon and his Deputy Governorship Candidate in Bayelsa State was held to be vitiated by the disqualification of the Deputy Governorship Candidate based on submission of false information/document to INEC.
“In fact, both candidates were disqualified by the Supreme Court and ‘deemed not to be candidates at the governorship election conducted in Bayelsa State.’”
It is generally believed that this is the fate which awaits Yakubu, Abenemi and the SDP at the election, should they win, according to opinion polls.
Also, in the case they do not win the said election, the SDP and their Candidates’ locus standi to challenge the victory of the winner of the election at the Tribunal will be incapacitated as the issue of their qualification may be raised in response to their petition or as a cross petition.
However, Section 33 of the Electoral Act 2022 allows political parties to substitute their candidates only in the case of death of the nominated candidates or withdrawal.
In the case of withdrawal, there is a deadline for such substitution. For the Kogi election, the deadline for the substitution of candidates set by INEC expired on May 26, 2023.
Indeed, this window of substitution brought in Yakubu and Abenemi as SDP candidates on May 20, 2023.
“Hence, the only ‘remedy’ which is most impracticable is death which nobody prays for. Sections 33 and 34 of the Electoral Act 2022 provides copious provisions on this process,” the lawyer said.
It must, however, be noted that in the entire history of democratic elections in Nigeria, only one substitution (arguably) occasioned by death has been recorded and coincidentally same occurred in the 2015 Kogi State Governorship Election which produced the current Governor, H.E. Yahaya Bello.
Going by this statistics, it is impracticable near impossible that this will repeat itself to save the troubled SDP ticket.
While the SDP will not be precluded from participating in the November 11 election based on the certificate forgery scandal, the futility of the party’s participation in the election is a big source of worry to the party, according to a top national SDP official who spoke in confidence to our reporter.
*Culled from Freedom Online.
WHERE IS NIGERIA TODAY UNDER PRESIDENT BOLA TINUBU
Easter Weekend Special by Otega ‘The Tiger’ Ogra
Just so you are better informed about our country, Nigeria, here are seven facts about our debt stock and our dear country’s path to progress under President Bola Tinubu (x – @officialABAT / Instagram & Facebook @officialasiwajubat).
Nigeria’s economic progress is evident in several key areas. Firstly, Nigeria’s Debt Stock (External + Domestic of FGN, the 36 states, and the FCT) is down from $108.2bn to $94.2bn as of Dec 31, 2024. Additionally, PBAT has cleared all verified FX backlogs of about $7bn. Despite dutifully paying off the backlog and reducing our total debt stock through consistent payments to creditors, Nigeria’s gross external reserves still grew to approximately $40.9 billion at the end of 2024, significantly higher than the $33.0 billion recorded in 2023. Net external reserves amounted to $23.3 billion, a 482.5% improvement from about $4.0 billion in 2023.
The Balance of Payments (BOP) surplus is another indicator of Nigeria’s economic growth. Nigeria achieved a BOP surplus of $6.83 billion in 2024, a significant turnaround from deficits of $3.34 billion in 2023 and $3.32 billion in 2022, reflecting stronger trade performance and increased investor confidence. Furthermore, our Non-oil exports also increased by 24.6% to $7.46 billion, while gas exports surged by 48.3% to $8.66 billion, boosting our overall trade surplus. Thanks to NGML and NLNG.
Investor confidence is also on the rise. Portfolio investment inflows, a sign of rising investor confidence in a country, more than doubled, increasing by 106.5% to $13.35 billion in 2024. Renewed investor confidence in Nigeria is driven by President Bola Tinubu’s bold macroeconomic reforms. Moreover, personal remittances from Nigerians abroad grew by 8.9% to reach $20.93 billion, complemented by a 43.5% rise in inflows via International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) to $4.73 billion, demonstrating increased trust from the diaspora in our economy. Thank you, dear Nigerians in the diaspora, for believing in your country.
These achievements demonstrate President Tinubu’s effective leadership. Prudent management, optimization, and deployment of resources are what you get when you elect a President who understands finance and accounting and has done actual work along these lines with major corporations in the world. This is who our President Bola Tinubu is—educated, focused, knowledgeable, and a Strategic Thinker & Planner. ‘Our Asiwaju,’ ‘The Jagaban,’ President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not ‘someone who gets governance and financial management advice from a mentally impaired person living under a bridge’ like a particular critic who ran for office does (_not my words but the critic’s_). What I mean is that #FollowWhoKnowRoad knows the work that needs to be done and ‘knows the book’.
P.s. You can always visit (https://dmo.gov.ng) or ask the Debt Management Office @DMONigeria for more info on our debt profile.
PART II
NIGERIA’S DEBT PROFILE FUN FACT
Do you know that our IMF loan obligations have been significantly paid down from $2.47 billion as of 2023 to $800.23 million at the end of 2024? A substantial decrease of over 67% in that period.
Some key points to note about Nigeria’s debt profile include:
– Nigeria, under PBAT, is paying its loans back. No default. No unnecessary borrowings. No seeking for tens of billions of dollars in debt bailout and sacking of 70% of the workforce (as another ‘critic-perennial candidate’ prescribed as a solution citing another country in South America as his example).
– Nigeria, under PBAT, is clearing legacy debts from multiple administrations. Yet, our foreign reserves are rising.
– The federating states are receiving more FAAC allocations under PBAT’s administration. Their highest ever.
– Nigeria under PBAT is now exporting more than it imports. We have a trade and payments surplus. Did I hear someone say PBAT is the real ‘consumption to production’ advocate?
– Foreign investors are coming back under PBAT – from those in the oil & gas sector who left to new investors in Agribusiness, Solid Minerals, Aviation, Industry, etc. That’s confidence.
– Local investors are not left out. From Dangote to BUA, Breweries to Banks, and many others, they are pulling in their biggest profits in years. If you doubt me, check the official company results on the NGX website. e.g., Nigerian Breweries did a massive turnaround in profits in their just-released results. Go and verify!
Road construction is simultaneously ongoing in 74 roads across 24 states of the Federation, as well as the marquee Lagos-Calabar & Sokoto-Badagry super highways which will open up industry, agriculture, and productivity along those routes. Approvals have been given for the completion of Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Road. The East-West Road is on track. Akwanga-Jos-Bauchi-Gombe Road is being reconstructed. 2nd Niger Bridge Phase 2B (access roads) has commenced. The list is almost endless.
Again, follow whoever knows the road!!!
After former President M Buhari (2015-2023) did his best to navigate the country through an economic crisis brought about by profligate spending by the admin before him + Covid-19 + global recessions + disruptions to the global supply chains, President Tinubu said upon assuming office that he will build on the good works of his APC predecessor, fix cumulative structural imbalances from previous admins, and build a solid foundation for Nigeria and generations yet unborn.
Nigeria will thrive and succeed. Amen. If you are not betting on Nigeria already, you are on a long thing! #BetOnNigeria
Otega ‘The Tiger’ Ogra
Senior Aide to President Bola Tinubu
18 April 2025
Part I
https://x.com/otegaogra/status/1913172288788214001?s=46&t=-WT1A6V3jj52Bil8fk9JS
Part II:
https://x.com/otegaogra/status/1913172426805981653?s=46&t=-WT1A6V3jj52Bil8fk9JSg
The Grip of Godfathers: How Political Puppeteers Hijacked Nigeria’s 2023 Elections
By George Omagbemi Sylvester
In any genuine democracy, power flows from the people to their leaders. But in Nigeria, especially in the 2023 general elections, this democratic ideal was once again hijacked by an entrenched system of political godfatherism—an unholy alliance of oligarchs, kingmakers, and shadowy puppeteers who wield immense influence over who gets elected and who gets crushed. The result is a democracy disfigured by greed, betrayal, and manipulation.
The Anatomy of Godfatherism in Nigeria
Godfatherism in Nigerian politics is not new. Since the return to democracy in 1999, it has played a dominant role in shaping the political landscape. Godfathers are wealthy political elites—often former governors, military officers, or businessmen—who sponsor candidates into power in exchange for loyalty, contracts, and control of state resources. As Professor Attahiru Jega, former INEC chairman, once noted, “Nigeria’s elections are not necessarily won by popularity or competence but by who controls the political machinery” (Jega, 2022).
The 2023 elections were a glaring manifestation of this disease. Across the country, from Lagos to Kano, Rivers to Delta, godfathers imposed candidates, manipulated primaries, and dictated outcomes with impunity. It wasn’t about manifestos or merit; it was about loyalty to the political mafia.
Lagos: The Jagaban Effect
Nowhere was godfatherism more pronounced than in Lagos State. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the self-acclaimed “Jagaban of Borgu” and national leader of the APC, has maintained a vice-like grip on Lagos politics since 1999 (TheCable, 2023). In 2023, he ascended to the presidency not by a groundswell of popular support but by orchestrating a brutal, well-funded political machine that bulldozed its way through party primaries and general elections.
Despite throwing the full weight of his influence behind the APC candidate for governor, the Labour Party made historic gains in Lagos, defeating APC in the presidential vote within Tinubu’s stronghold (INEC Official Results, 2023). Yet, voter suppression, intimidation, and ethnic incitement marred the subsequent gubernatorial polls—underscoring how far godfathers will go to maintain control (Amnesty International, 2023).
As Chinua Achebe once warned, “The trouble with Nigeria is simply and squarely a failure of leadership” (Achebe, 1983). That leadership failure is deeply tied to the stranglehold of political godfathers who prioritize personal gain over national progress.
Northern Nigeria: The Invisible Hands
In the North, political godfatherism took a more insidious form. Former military generals and entrenched politicians, particularly those from Buhari’s camp, played strategic roles in determining party tickets and political deals. The G5 governors’ rebellion in PDP—led by Wike, Ortom, Makinde, Ugwuanyi, and Ikpeazu—was itself a godfatherist power play aimed at disrupting national party consensus (Vanguard, 2023).
In Rivers State, Governor Nyesom Wike turned the state into a battleground of interests, publicly undermining his own party while negotiating backdoor deals with APC. The resulting electoral confusion led to disputed results and a fractured political environment (Premium Times, 2023).
The Electoral Betrayal of the Masses
INEC’s failure to transmit election results electronically despite promising to do so under the 2022 Electoral Act was a monumental betrayal. The Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), hailed as a game-changer, was abandoned during collation, opening the door to rigging (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2023).
The “Obidient” movement, powered by youth disillusionment and the candidacy of Peter Obi, gave millions of Nigerians hope. But that hope was crushed not just by INEC’s failure but by the deeply entrenched political oligarchs who feared losing power to the people.
As political scientist Robert Michels observed in his “Iron Law of Oligarchy,” “Who says organization, says oligarchy.” Nigerian parties, structured around godfathers, operate not as democratic institutions but as authoritarian vehicles of personal ambition.
The Tragedy of Compromise and Silence
Most tragic is the normalization of this dysfunction. Religious leaders, traditional rulers, and even the judiciary have often chosen silence or convenient neutrality. But as Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka rightly declared, “The man dies in all who keep silent in the face of tyranny” (Soyinka, 1972). In 2023, silence was louder than outrage.
President Muhammadu Buhari’s hands-off approach to post-election violence and widespread irregularities further eroded public confidence. Despite pledging to leave a legacy of free and fair elections, Buhari’s silence on INEC’s failures and his party’s abuses was deafening.
The Cost of Godfatherism
The cost of godfatherism is not just political—it is economic and social. It kills initiative, breeds incompetence, and facilitates corruption. When leaders are beholden to patrons, they have little incentive to serve the people.
The World Bank reports that Nigeria has lost over $400 billion to corruption since independence (World Bank, 2022). A significant portion of this is tied to godfather networks and political patronage. State capture, contract fraud, inflated budgets, and ghost projects are the legacy of politicians who serve their funders, not their constituents.
A Way Forward: Breaking the Chains
To dismantle the system of godfatherism, Nigeria must reform its institutions. INEC must be truly independent, immune from executive or legislative interference. Political party financing should be transparent and audited. Civil society must hold leaders accountable, and the media must stop being megaphones for political propaganda.
Political parties should internalize democracy—allowing primaries to be decided by merit, not by money or manipulation. As Nelson Mandela once said, “A critical, independent and investigative press is the lifeblood of any democracy” (Mandela, 1994). The Nigerian media must rise to this responsibility.
Voter education is essential. Citizens must understand their power and refuse to sell their votes. The success of the “Not Too Young To Run” Act and the rise of youth-led political activism in 2023 prove that the tide can turn—but only with sustained resistance.
Conclusion: A Call to Reclaim Democracy
Nigeria cannot move forward while her politics remains in the chokehold of godfathers. The 2023 elections should not just be remembered as a contest of candidates but as a referendum on whether Nigerians are truly free to choose their leaders.
As Dora Akunyili once said, “We must fight for the soul of our nation.” That fight must be waged at the ballot box, in the courts, on the streets, and in our hearts. The era of godfatherism must end—for democracy, development, and dignity to thrive in Nigeria.
_Sylvester is a prolific writer and political analyst; He writes from Johannesburg._
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