When the Past Knocks Twice: Lessons Nigeria Refuses to Learn.

By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by saharaweeklyng.com

“Same mistakes, harder landing; Nigeria keeps repeating the exam and failing the grade.”

Nigeria is a country with a long memory and a short attention span. We celebrate reforms when they arrive like overdue guests, then hand them off to a ruling class whose HABITS are older than the CONSTITUTION. The result is a recurring national tragedy: POLICY REVERSALS, HALF-MEASURES and a POLITICAL CULTURE that mistakes noise for progress. The past, when ignored, does not stay buried; it knocks again, louder and more destructive. Every time it knocks, the lesson missed is paid for by ordinary Nigerians: mothers making impossible choices about food, children missing school because of violence and households sliding into poverty while the corridors of power debate abstractions.

HISTORY is not merely background; it is a teacher. Chinua Achebe captured this precisely when he wrote that “THE NIGERIAN PROBLEM IS THE UNWILLINGNESS OR INABILITY OF ITS LEADERS TO RISE TO THE RESPONSIBILITY” and later warned that “UNTIL THE LIONS HAVE THEIR OWN HISTORIANS, THE HISTORY OF THE HUNT WILL ALWAYS GLORIFY THE HUNTER.” Those sentences are not aphorisms to be pinned on noticeboards; they are indictments that remain painfully current. Achebe’s diagnosis still fits: leadership in Nigeria too often defaults to expediency over courage, patronage over principle and narrative spin over accountability. The consequence is predictable, reform starts with fanfare and ends in the same patterns of exclusion and mismanagement that created the problems in the first place.

Consider the economy. The government of 2023–2025 undertook wrenching macroeconomic changes; SUBSIDY REMOVALS, EXCHANGE-RATE UNIFICATION and TAX REFORMS intended to restore fiscal sanity and attract capital. International institutions have cautiously applauded the direction, but the IMF and World Bank note that these measures have improved macro stability and investor sentiment and they stress that reforms can anchor medium-term growth if followed through with social protections and better implementation. Applause from capitals and boardrooms does not feed children. Nigeria’s headline problems; FOOD-PRICE SHOCKS, STUBBORN INFLATION and A POTENTIAL RISE IN POVERTY are the direct and measurable aftermath of policy choices that were not accompanied by the safety nets and supply-side fixes required to protect the vulnerable. The IMF itself acknowledged the reforms while urging careful sequencing and protection for those most at risk.

The numbers are unforgiving. Official and multilateral data show that millions of Nigerians are teetering on the edge of deprivation. The World Bank’s country assessments and poverty briefs have repeatedly warned that extreme poverty and food insecurity are rising and that millions more could be pushed below national and international poverty lines if inflation and food-price pressures persist. These are not abstract forecasts, they are household catastrophes that translate into empty plates and foregone healthcare. Policy without mitigation becomes punitive. Reforms must be accompanied by cash transfers, agricultural interventions and transparent targeting mechanisms; otherwise, they simply shift the cost of reform from the state’s balance sheet onto the backs of ordinary citizens.

If the economy is the sore muscle, insecurity is the gangrene. Violence in the north (from Boko Haram and ISWAP in the northeast to banditry and mass kidnappings across the northwest and north-central zones) has intensified. Human-rights monitors and independent reporting show that deaths, kidnappings and displacement rose sharply in recent years, with some months recording more fatalities than entire previous years. The security crisis compounds poverty and farmers cannot plant or harvest, markets are paralyzed and internal displacement creates humanitarian emergencies that the state cannot sustainably fund. Insecurity is not an adjunct problem; it is a structural brake on development, investment and the basic functioning of civic life. To treat it otherwise is to pretend the country can prosper while significant swaths of its people live under siege.

Why do we repeat the same mistakes? Part of the answer is INSTITUTIONAL SCLEROSIS. Nigeria inherited weak checks and balances and successive administrations have failed to build resilient institutions that outlive political survival. The civil service, meant to be the engine of continuity, is too often politicized; procurement systems remain opaque; and key service-delivery institutions are chronically underfunded or captured. When reforms require sustained administrative competence (to deliver conditional cash transfers, to run agricultural extension at scale, to prosecute corruption) Nigeria’s institutional weaknesses turn good policy into poorly implemented experiments. This is not an accident. It is the inevitable outcome of decades of governance where loyalty to party trumps service to the citizen.

Political culture matters as much as policy design. Nigerian politics rewards short-term rent extraction, not long-term public goods. Elites who profit from opacity and uncertainty will resist reforms that strip away patronage. So we have reform rhetoric paired with concession to vested interests; subsidies quietly reinstated, procurement diluted by political meddling and fiscal discipline undermined by emergency bailouts that reward political allies instead of correcting systemic inefficiency. The cycle is predictable and reform is announced, markets cheer, the elite lobby, policy is softened and the country ends up with neither sustained reform nor meaningful redistribution. The past knocks and we open the door to the very habits that produced the crisis.

What must change is not the occasional policy pivot but the underlying bargain between state and society. A credible social contract would mean that when hard reforms are necessary, they come with a transparent plan for protection and inclusion, measurable targets and independent monitoring. It would mean that revenues raised from subsidy savings or tax reforms are ring-fenced to improve power, roads, schools and safety nets not siphoned off into patronage. It would mean prosecuting corruption swiftly and visibly so that governance gains public legitimacy. In short, reforms must be sequenced with politics and administration in mind.

Though sequencing alone is not enough. Leadership must embrace humility and honesty. Politicians must stop treating citizens as collateral damage in a saga of HEADLINE-GRABBING POLICY and instead explain the trade-offs, accept short-term pain for long-term gain and deliver within a framework that offers concrete compensation for those hurt in the transition. Civil society, media and the judiciary must insist on transparency; the international community should condition support on verifiable social protection outcomes; and technocrats must be empowered and not sidelined by populist spectacle.

Nigeria has everything it needs to change course, HUMAN TALENT, a VAST DOMESTIC MARKET, ABUNDANT NATURAL RESOURCES and the INSTITUTIONAL HOOKS of DEMOCRACY. Potential is not destiny. If we do not learn from the past knocks, if we do not translate lessons into durable institutions, fair social contracts and brave leadership; those knocks will keep coming, louder each time, until the cost is CATASTROPHIC.

The invoice for today’s complacency reads in lives and livelihoods. The question for Nigeria is SIMPLE: Will we continue to answer the door to yesterday’s mistakes or Will we finally learn the lesson and refuse to open it?

History is waiting and the lions are ready to tell their side.

– George Omagbemi Sylvester

Tinubu Administration Strengthens Grassroots Education with BAT-STEM 2.0 Programme

The Presidential Community Engagement Office (South-West) has continued its far-reaching BAT-STEM education initiative, reaching thousands of pupils and teachers across Ondo, Ekiti, and Osun States with essential learning materials and support items.

In Ondo State, pupils of St. James CAC Caring Heart Mega School and Iloro Community Primary School, Akure, received educational support materials aimed at making learning easier and more engaging. The team then moved to Ekiti State, where Methodist Primary School, Ilisa Quarters, St. Andrew’s Primary School, both in Omuo-Ekiti, and Ado Grammar School, Ado-Ekiti, witnessed similar gestures as students received scholarship support, school bags, sandals, exercise books, pens, pencils, and mathematics sets, while teachers have been supported with tools that enhance classroom delivery including whiteboards, markers, and dusters.

In Osun State, the initiative extended its reach to Modakeke High School, Modakeke, and Moremi High School, Ile-Ife, where the vision of Renewed Hope was further strengthened. Students, teachers, and community members participated in an exercise that provided educational materials and empowerment support, reflecting the values of compassion, equity, and opportunity that define the programme.

“This gesture from the government will encourage the students to take their studies more seriously. We are grateful to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for making education a priority,” Mrs. Mary Akinyemi, Principal of Ado Grammar School said.

Beyond the schools, food items were also distributed to families, teachers, and community members, reflecting the administration’s belief that education thrives best in stable and supported communities.

Speaking on the initiative, the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Community Engagement (South-West), Moremi Ojudu, reaffirmed the President’s commitment to making education accessible for all.

“The aim of BAT-STEM is to revamp the Omoluabi spirit. President Tinubu is very passionate about young minds and he believes that every child deserves a fair chance, regardless of where they come from. What we are doing through BAT-STEM is ensuring that no child is left behind – that every learner has the tools and encouragement to dream and succeed,” she said. “This is the essence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, transforming lives from the grassroots, one community at a time.”

The BAT-STEM 2.0 initiative, which stands for Scholarship, Training, Education, and Mentorship, continues to advance President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda as it nurtures brighter futures and strengthens the link between government and the people.

Ten Years of Progressive Governance in Nigeria: From Reform to Renewal

By Rabiu Isyaku Rabiu

During the public presentation of the book “Ten Years of Impactful Progressive Governance in Nigeria,” authored by the Chairman of the Progressive Governors’ Forum and Executive Governor of Imo State, His Excellency Governor Hope Uzodinma, I reflected on Nigeria’s decade-long journey under successive progressive administrations as Chief Presenter. Though time did not allow me to deliver my written remarks, the message remains vital to our national conversation on leadership, governance, and reform.

There are moments for politics and moments for governance. Once elections are over, governance must take precedence. Our duty as citizens is to move beyond division and measure progress not by sentiment but by delivery, performance, and impact.

Over the past ten years, Nigeria’s story has been one of courage and continuity, of institutions learning discipline, and of leaders willing to face hard truths about our economy. President Muhammadu Buhari laid the foundation of fiscal prudence, agricultural revival, and infrastructure renewal. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has advanced that legacy through decisive structural reforms such as removing the fuel subsidy, unifying exchange rates, modernising tax policy, and restoring credibility to public finance. These choices were not easy, but they were necessary. They broke habits that had become too costly to sustain and redirected public wealth toward productivity.

Since May 2023, government non-oil revenue has grown by more than 400 percent. This is not coincidence. It is the outcome of intentional policy and technological transparency. The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reform Committee has simplified compliance, eliminated duplication, and placed technology at the centre of revenue collection. Revenue agencies that once competed now cooperate. Multiple taxation is being dismantled. Incentives for businesses are transparent and available online without intermediaries or privileged access. Every entrepreneur, large or small, can now apply for fiscal waivers or export credits within minutes. Fairness by design and technology is replacing favour by connection.

Energy stability has returned as proof that reform, though painful, delivers results. The queues that once defined our petrol stations are gone. Deregulation has reopened the downstream market and restored investor confidence in oil and gas, bringing new capital into deep-water, midstream, and modular-refinery projects. Parallel reforms in the Presidential CNG Initiative are changing urban mobility by replacing petrol fleets with cleaner and cheaper gas vehicles. At the same time, a nationwide solar-power rollout is providing electricity to schools, clinics, and small industries. Together, these initiatives reflect a balanced energy future built on efficiency, competition, and sustainability.

Security remains the foundation of every reform. In 2024, ₦3.85 trillion, about 13 percent of the national budget, was allocated to defence and internal security. For 2025, that figure rose to ₦6.57 trillion, with significant investment in equipment, intelligence, and personnel welfare. The Nigerian Air Force is modernising with 24 M-346 attack jets and 10 AW-109 helicopters. The Navy has commissioned new patrol ships and maritime helicopters to strengthen coastal and energy-asset protection. Across all theatres, joint operations by the Nigerian Armed Forces and intelligence agencies have neutralised tens of thousands of terrorists, insurgents and criminal elements, arrested many more, and rescued tens of thousands of hostages and displaced persons. The tempo has changed. Our armed forces now take the initiative rather than wait for it.

Infrastructure remains the bridge between ambition and opportunity. Across the country, more than 260 major projects in roads, bridges, ports, and pipelines are under construction or near completion. The Lagos to Calabar Coastal Highway and the Sokoto to Badagry Super Highway are redefining commerce and mobility. The national Bridge Fibre Project is expanding digital connectivity across cities and rural areas, strengthening the country’s broadband backbone and opening new corridors for education, innovation, and enterprise.

Digital governance reform is also deepening national capacity. The ongoing overhaul of the National Identity Management Commission has expanded NIN registration to tens of millions of citizens, creating a reliable digital backbone for planning, financial inclusion, and social protection. For the first time, national data is being harmonised across agencies, improving service delivery, strengthening security coordination, and helping the country plan development with precision.

Work along the River Niger corridor from Lokoja to Baro Port is progressing to enable future inland-waterway operations that can reduce transport costs and improve market access across regions. These projects reflect a deliberate effort to balance regional growth, from the Niger Delta cleanup and gas expansion in the South to new exploration in the North and industrial corridors across the Middle Belt.

Reform without human investment is reform without soul. The $2.2 billion Health Sector Renewal Programme is upgrading 17,000 primary health centres and training 120,000 health workers, while free caesarean care and subsidised dialysis are easing the burden on families. In education, student-loan schemes, digital-skills initiatives, and new STEM and AI curricula are preparing our young people for a digital economy. Through the Student Loan Fund, access to higher education is becoming a right, not a privilege. Its synergy with new financing institutions such as CREDICORP and the Nigeria Credit Guarantee Company ensures that young Nigerians can pursue knowledge with the same confidence that entrepreneurs pursue capital. Free technical and vocational training at the tertiary level will supply the technicians and artisans required for industrial growth.

Agriculture and food security have become the centre of national resilience. Beyond grains, the Federal Ministry of Livestock Development is unlocking a trillion-naira value chain in meat, dairy, and leather. Expanded fertiliser blending, mechanisation, irrigation, and storage are supporting millions of smallholders. With increased investment in rice, cassava, and cash-crop processing, Nigeria is moving toward genuine food sovereignty. Food security is not an aspiration but a necessity for economic stability.

The government’s economic renewal is also anchored on access to finance, enterprise, and inclusion. The establishment of CREDICORP, the Nigeria Credit Guarantee Company, and the Student Loan Fund has strengthened the foundation for a credit-based economy as well as human capital and domestic productivity. Together, these institutions expand access to credit for small businesses, farmers, civil servants, individuals, and students while derisking lending and empowering citizens to build their future without political connections. In promoting local production over import dependence, the Nigeria First Policy is not only conserving foreign exchange but also creating pathways for skilled youth employment and industrial apprenticeship across states.

I say this not out of any search for appointment, business patronage, or reward, but from a place of patriotism and conviction. In any case, President Tinubu has made it possible for any Nigerian engaged in productive enterprise and producing goods in Nigeria, to get business patronage without knowing anyone. From where I stand, and for every Nigerian, the true beauty of the Nigeria First Policy is that it invites us all to become participants in our country’s renewal. We can each now go into productive enterprise and live the Nigerian dream, so long as we care enough to believe in this nation and invest in our people, resources, and future.

In the midst of reform, President Tinubu’s words have been both compass and caution: “As we continue to reform the economy, I shall always listen to the people and will never turn my back on you.” That statement captures the essence of progressive governance which I define as courage guided by compassion. Under this directive, Nigeria’s social-protection system has been rebuilt on transparency and technology. The Conditional Cash Transfer programme now reaches more than 15 million households on a verified digital register, each linked to a NIN-validated wallet or bank account for direct payment. No intermediaries and no leakages. In addition, ₦344 billion has been disbursed in three tranches to the 36 states and the FCT to support local welfare and enterprise programmes. The Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme, which will operate across 8,809 wards, will economically engage over 10 million Nigerians and ensure that national policy translates into local opportunity.

The humanitarian principle of progressivism is simple. Reform must lift, not leave behind. Fiscal discipline restores credibility. Social investment restores trust. When citizens see roads being built, hospitals working, and social payments arriving on time, faith in reform deepens and the social contract is strengthened. Special attention is also being given to women, rural communities, and persons with disabilities through targeted enterprise and skills-support initiatives under the Renewed Hope framework.

The numbers also tell their own story of impact and renewed hope in Nigeria. Non-oil revenues continue to rise. Exports are diversifying. Nigeria has recorded its first trade and balance-of-payments surplus in years, a sign of growing production and renewed confidence in the naira. Oil output is improving, new investments are flowing into the upstream and midstream segments, and our current account is gaining strength as reforms take hold. President Bola Tinubu and his government recognise that inflation and living costs remain a strain on households, but the fiscal discipline now taking root is designed to restore purchasing power in a sustainable way. President Tinubu has also acknowledged that meaningful reform takes time. While citizens are beginning to see the first trickles of progress, the greater task is to ensure that these trickles flow downward to communities, markets, classrooms, and farms where growth becomes tangible and human.

The task ahead is to sustain this momentum but it won’t be easy. Every child must be in school. NIWA must be further strengthened to expand partnerships for safer and cleaner waterways. NDLEA must receive greater support to combat the rising threat of drug trafficking and addiction, and NAFDAC must be empowered with stronger laboratories and technology to protect the public from counterfeit medicines and unsafe food. These are not peripheral agencies. They are frontline guardians of national wellbeing, and their effectiveness determines the credibility of our progress.

Communities themselves must also understand that with all the support given to our security agencies and the military, their partnership is vital. Cooperation between citizens, traditional institutions, and security operatives will solidify these gains, strengthen intelligence at the grassroots, and prevent a return to disorder. National security is not the burden of the state alone. It is the shared duty of all Nigerians determined to protect their future.

The state governors of Nigeria, under this Renewed Hope and progressive compact, also have a historic role to play. We have faith that with President Tinubu’s commitment, they can write their names in gold, but that gold must first be mined in proper service of the people.

The progress of any nation is not measured only by its wealth, but by the collective will of its people to do right, even when it is hard. That is the essence of progressive governance and the covenant that must bind us for the next decade.

I imagine a Nigeria where every child learns, every farmer prospers, every hospital has power, and every young person earns a dignified living. That is the spirit of renewal behind this progressive decade. It is the belief that courage and compassion are not opposites but partners in building a fair and prosperous country. Tomorrow’s Nigeria is not waiting to be discovered. It is waiting to be delivered with courage, competence, and care. I am Rabiu Isyaku Rabiu and I endorse the publication of this message.

God bless our President.

God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Alhaji Rabiu Isiyaku Rabiu is a business entrepreneur who advocates private-sector innovation that strengthens reform and institutional growth. Drawing from experience across critical sectors, his reflections on governance, accountability, and shared prosperity are grounded in both enterprise and national purpose.