Nigeria’s reforms have put the country on the global economic map

By Abdul Samad Rabiu 

As my country steadies itself, Britain, its Western allies and their companies should deepen this partnership

As ghosts of the 1930s haunt the global outlook, the scramble for trade deals has seized control of government agendas. The United States has leveraged its “tariff war” to secure better terms, driving both friend and foe to the negotiating table. British deals with the US and India have provided some refuge from the prevailing gloom.

Less reported – but with similar potential – was last year’s signing of the Enhanced and Trade and Investment Partnership (ETIP) between the UK and Nigeria , the former’s first such agreement with an African nation. Quiet in its arrival, the pact may yet echo louder.

As someone who has built multinational businesses across Africa, I know the vast opportunity the continent offers, and Nigeria in particular, which alone accounts for a fifth of sub-Saharan Africa’s 1.2 billion people. But I also understand the limitations we have often placed on ourselves when it comes to securing investment.

Lowering barriers to trade is crucial, and for that Britain’s ETIP looks prescient. However, investment and business potential will remain discounted as long as African nations cling to state intervention – from subsidies and price controls to exchange rate distortions – all of which have consistently bred dysfunction and economic instability. Fortunately, Nigeria has now decisively turned a corner, embracing market economics under a liberalising government.

In Morocco this week, Foreign Secretary David Lammy indicated Britain’s position is shifting too. Setting out his strategy for Africa, he said British policy must transition from aid to investment. “Trade-not-aid” is no new idea – but it is the first time a British government has so clearly echoed the demand the African continent has voiced for years.

In making that shift, Nigeria is taking the lead for a continent to follow. So many Nigerian administrations I have known have been hostage to economic events, doubling down time and again on state intervention rather than having the conviction to reform. This administration is proving different. After two years of difficult reforms, Nigeria – under President Bola Tinubu – is now poised to fulfil the promise of its vast natural resources, rapidly growing population of over 200 million people, and strategic coastal location along the Gulf of Guinea.

First, the Tinubu administration removed a crippling fuel subsidy – the most significant policy reform in years. At 25 to 30 cents per litre, petrol in Nigeria was among the cheapest in the world. But the subsidy was bankrupting the government: by 2023, it consumed over 15 per cent of the federal budget – roughly equivalent to the proportion the UK spends annually on the NHS.

When President Tinubu ditched the fuel subsidy on his first day in office, criticism quickly followed. Prices, at least for the time being, have risen. However, statistics must be understood in light of the wide-ranging distortions the subsidy created.

Officially, fuel consumption in Nigeria has dropped by 40 to 50 per cent. But that is not because Nigerians’ petrol use reduced by this amount. In reality the country was subsidising the region, with cross border fuel smugglers profiting from arbitrage. The illegal trade was so blatant that on a visit to neighbouring Niger a few years ago, then-President Mohamed Bazoum even joked about it, thanking Nigeria for the cheap fuel. Though the move was politically unpopular, the subsidy had become unsustainable. Now, spending is being redirected toward development and infrastructure – laying the foundations for long-term growth.

Second, the country has moved from a fixed to a market-determined exchange rate. Previously, only select groups could access the official rate – especially those with political connections; the rest had to rely on a more expensive parallel informal market determined by supply and demand. But selling dollars at an artificially low rate only entrenched scarcity, a problem compounded by an opaque exchange mechanism that deterred foreign investment.

Every two weeks, we used to make the 12-hour drive to Abuja to seek dollar allocations for imports – camping out at the Central Bank for three or four days. Now, I no longer need to go. I’ve met the new Governor only once in two years – because I haven’t had to. Monetary orthodoxy has finally arrived, bringing with it the liquidity that both domestic and foreign businesses depend on to smooth trade and de-risk investment.

Third, the shackles of politics are being prised from business, bringing greater certainty, fairness and stability to the landscape. Five years ago, I woke up one morning to find that the port concession for a new venture of mine had been revoked. It turned out my company was outcompeting a friend of an official of the Nigerian Ports Authority. In the end, it took then-President Buhari’s personal intervention to save the enterprise.

Had I not been politically connected, the business would have folded – along with the 4,000 jobs it provided – at a time when job creation was, and remains, Nigeria’s most urgent challenge. Today, such connections are no longer necessary. The playing field is being levelled, flattening the political ridges and dips that once skewed the game.

Many of these reforms required political courage to withstand the force of criticism. Prices rose as distortions were removed, yet the administration held firm, even as vested interests co-opted public discontent for their own ends.

Indeed, many of the benefits of reform are still to be felt by the wider public. But economic fundamentals must be fixed before that becomes possible. That lead-time often tempts market reformers to reverse course, or avoid reform altogether. Now that Nigeria has made it through the toughest phase, its direction should be clear to investors.

For Britain, the Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership with Nigeria was a strategic bet on reform, resilience and long-term reward. Nigeria is now delivering its part of the bargain. As my country steadies itself, the UK, its Western allies – and their companies – should deepen this partnership.

_Abdul Samad Rabiu is a Nigerian businessman and philanthropist_

Import Bans, Empty Boasts and Economic Delusion: Tinubu’s Recipe for Nigeria’s Economic Disaster

By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Sahara Weekly Nigeria

When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu declared that banning the importation of foreign goods would “revive” Nigeria’s economy, one would think the man had a Nobel Prize in economic policy. Instead, what we get is textbook delusion coming from a self-proclaimed “first-class accountant” from Chicago State University, a claim with no official transcript, certificate or academic record in public view to validate it. In a time when Nigeria urgently needs innovative, export-driven policies, Tinubu is trying to build an economic miracle on import bans, slogans and the illusion of industrial rebirth in a country plagued by power failure, insecurity and corruption.

The Import Ban Illusion
Let’s start with the cold, hard facts. NIGERIA is not an INDUSTRIAL NATION. According to World Bank data (2024), manufacturing contributes less than 9% to Nigeria’s GDP. The country imports over 80% of its essential goods, including food, pharmaceuticals, refined petroleum and machinery. In such a context, banning imports without ensuring local capacity is not “patriotic policy” but economic sabotage.

Tinubu’s administration recently restricted the importation of over 40 items, including rice, cement, toothpicks and even poultry products. His argument? Local production must be encouraged. The problem, however, is that there’s no infrastructure to support that ambition. As of Q1 2025, Nigeria still suffers from epileptic electricity supply, averaging just 4,000 MW for over 200 million people, according to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission. For comparison, South Africa, with a population of 62 million, produces over 45,000 MW (Eskom, 2024 data).

No economy thrives under darkness. You cannot ban the importation of toothpicks and expect bamboo to magically morph into industry without electricity, investment or skilled labor.

Failed Economic Patriotism
The Tinubu administration is recycling the failed policies of past governments. We saw this playbook under former President Muhammadu Buhari, another disciple of economic isolationism. The Central Bank of Nigeria, under Godwin Emefiele, banned 41 items from forex access, yet inflation soared, local substitutes remained expensive and smuggling boomed. The result? Nigeria became the poverty capital of the world in 2018.

Tinubu is repeating that cycle. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), food inflation stood at 40.53% as of April 2025, with staple items like rice, bread and oil becoming unaffordable for millions. The average Nigerian is now spending over 70% of their income on food—a clear indicator of economic dysfunction.

“The idea that a country can simply ban its way to prosperity is not just misguided; it’s reckless” said Dr. Kingsley Moghalu, former Deputy Governor of the CBN. “You need to create an enabling environment not a restrictive one. Industrialization thrives on productivity not prohibitions.”

A Mouthful of Academic Fraud?
While the economic policy is bad enough, the president’s intellectual credentials are also under serious scrutiny. Tinubu continues to tout his supposed “first-class” status from Chicago State University (CSU). Yet the institution, under subpoena in 2023, confirmed Tinubu did not graduate with honors and discrepancies exist between submitted documents and university records.

As Nigerian lawyer and public affairs analyst Dele Farotimi noted during a Channels TV interview:
“We are being governed by ghosts, people with no verifiable history, no transparency, yet they want to dictate economic truths to over 200 million people.”

How can a man who allegedly forged his way through academic corridors be trusted to engineer genuine economic transformation?

Export, Not Ban: The Real Path to Growth
Rather than banning imports, any serious leader would focus on boosting non-oil exports, supporting SMEs and fixing power, roads and insecurity. For instance, Vietnam (once as poor as Nigeria) embraced export-led growth. According to the International Monetary Fund, Vietnam’s exports in 2023 stood at $371 billion, compared to Nigeria’s paltry $67 billion, 85% of which was crude oil.

In the words of Professor Pat Utomi, political economist and founder of the Centre for Values in Leadership:
“We don’t have a productive economy; we have a transactional economy. Until we invest in human capital, reduce power costs and create policies that invite rather than repel investment, we will keep declining.”

Tinubu’s Propaganda Economics
Let’s also talk about perception. Tinubu’s administration spends more time defending economic disaster than solving it. The presidential spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, recently claimed that the economy is “on track” and that “Nigerians should endure.” This while the naira trades at ₦1,580 to $1 on the official market and youth unemployment hovers at 53.4% (NBS Q1 2025 report).

The government is delusional and more obsessed with optics than outcomes. The average Nigerian doesn’t care about economic jargon. They care about whether they can afford a bag of rice, fuel their car, pay school fees and stay safe.

As Nigerian writer and columnist Gimba Kakanda aptly wrote:
“The tragedy of Nigeria’s leadership is that they see national sacrifice as something the people alone must endure, while they dine on luxury.”

No Vision, No Results
To put it bluntly: Tinubu’s administration is a regime without vision. Import bans are the policies of lazy governments & those without the courage to compete, reform or innovate. These are leaders who cannot think beyond customs tariffs and control levers.

We’ve seen this movie before. In 1984, Buhari as military Head of State implemented similar bans. Nigeria became a nation of smugglers. In 2015, he repeated it. The economy crashed. Now Tinubu is borrowing from that same dusty playbook.

Even in India, a country once famous for import substitution, policymakers have long since abandoned that model in favor of “Make in India” a strategy built on exports, competitiveness and infrastructure.

What Nigeria needs is a Productive Economy and not a prohibited one.

The Final Blow: A Dangerous Gamble
Tinubu’s economic policy is not just wrong but it’s dangerous. Banning imports without providing alternatives is a betrayal of the masses. It punishes consumers, stifles innovation and invites corruption at the borders.

The president wants applause for forcing Nigerians to buy inferior, expensive local goods they don’t want, while politicians and their families still travel abroad for healthcare, holidays and education. What hypocrisy.

Nigeria deserves better. We deserve a leader with real academic credibility, real economic vision and real empathy, not one obsessed with clinging to propaganda while the nation bleeds.

As Chinua Achebe once warned: “The trouble with Nigeria is simply and squarely a FAILURE of LEADERSHIP.”

And Bola Ahmed Tinubu is living proof of that FAILURE…first-class in name only, and utterly bankrupt in strategy.

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