Politics
Nigeria on the Path to a One-Party State Under Tinubu and the APC:* The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
*Nigeria on the Path to a One-Party State Under Tinubu and the APC:* The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
By George Omagbemi Sylvester
Nigeria, is drifting perilously close to what analysts fear may become a one-party state under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The signs are glaring, the tactics aggressive, and the implications for national cohesion and democratic plurality are both ominous and disturbing. How did the nation that once celebrated the peaceful handover of power from one political party to another in 2015 fall so quickly into the hands of what increasingly resembles a democratic autocracy?
*How Did We Get Here?*
The seeds of one-party dominance were sown in 2015 when the APC, a coalition of opposition groups and defectors from the then-ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), defeated Goodluck Jonathan’s administration. For the first time in Nigeria’s history, an incumbent president lost an election and conceded defeat peacefully. It was hailed as a democratic triumph, but it masked a deeper problem Nigeria’s political elite were not changing values; they were changing jerseys.
Since then, the APC, especially under the baton of Tinubu who was widely regarded as the party’s kingmaker before ascending to the presidency has worked tirelessly to consolidate power not only through elections but through intimidation, co-optation, and manipulation. The weakening of opposition parties through defection inducements, selective prosecutions using anti-corruption agencies, and calculated political appointments has deepened concerns.
Professor Jibrin Ibrahim, a renowned political scientist, warned in 2024 that, _”Nigeria is not witnessing democratic consolidation but rather democratic contraction. The shrinking of political space is deliberate and dangerous.”_ His warning rings louder today than ever.
*The Good* : Is There Any Benefit?
In theory, one-party dominance can offer some benefits a streamlined policy agenda, reduced political gridlock, and faster implementation of development projects. Some proponents argue that in a country as divided and chaotic as Nigeria, the centralization of authority could bring stability. The Tinubu administration points to its push for fuel subsidy removal, infrastructural upgrades, and a unified foreign exchange regime as examples of decisive action made possible by its political leverage.
However, even these policies have triggered severe economic dislocations, including hyperinflation, job losses, and the devaluation of the naira. In essence, speed without deliberation has proven counterproductive.
Dr. Obiageli Ezekwesili, former Minister of Education and co-founder of Transparency International, put it succinctly: _”Efficiency without accountability is the fast lane to elite capture and mass disempowerment.”_
*The Bad*:Collapse of Opposition and Press Freedom
One of the worst signs of democratic erosion is the annihilation of viable opposition. The PDP, once the continent’s largest party, is now a shell of its former self, divided by internal strife and weakened by state-backed pressure. Smaller parties like the Labour Party and NNPP are routinely harassed, with their rallies disrupted, finances scrutinized, and leaders vilified.
The 2023 general elections, which brought Tinubu to power, were marred by widespread reports of voter suppression, ballot box snatching, and electoral malpractice. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), once seen as a beacon of reform, suffered a credibility collapse.
Additionally, the media is under siege. Critical journalists are detained under archaic laws, and media houses are threatened with closure. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), Nigeria in 2024 ranked among the top five countries in Africa for press intimidation.
*The Ugly* : Democratic Autocracy in Action
Bola Tinubu’s presidency is increasingly resembling a civilian dictatorship. Political dissent is stifled, civil society groups are under surveillance, and judicial independence is being eroded. The president’s frequent foreign trips amidst domestic turmoil signal a troubling detachment from the realities faced by everyday Nigerians.
What is worse is the normalization of autocratic behavior under the guise of reform. Appointments are no longer based on merit but on loyalty. State institutions from the EFCC to the DSS are weaponized against political opponents.
_”Democracy is not merely the right to vote every four years,”_ warned Kenyan legal scholar P.L.O. Lumumba, _”it is the right to participate meaningfully in a free society.”_ Nigeria, unfortunately, is veering away from this principle.
*The Nemesis:* Consequences of Centralized Power
The consequences of a de facto one-party state are devastating. First, it breeds apathy among citizens. Voter turnout in the 2023 elections was just 27%, the lowest since 1999. People have lost faith in the system. Second, it marginalizes minority voices, both ethnically and politically. Nigeria is too pluralistic to be ruled by one ideology.
Third, it creates a patronage system where only the connected thrive, further widening the inequality gap. A World Bank report in late 2024 noted that over 70% of Nigeria’s wealth is concentrated in the hands of just 5% of the population.
Professor Wole Soyinka, Nobel Laureate, lamented recently, _”A nation that surrenders its democracy to a single party loses its soul.”_
*What Can Be Done?*
The path forward requires courageous, collective action:
Strengthening Institutions: INEC must be depoliticized and granted full autonomy to conduct credible elections. Electoral reform is non-negotiable.
Opposition Unity: The PDP, Labour Party, and others must forge alliances, not just to win power but to restore democratic balance.
Civic Education: Citizens must be educated on the dangers of political apathy and the importance of participatory governance.
Media Protection: Journalists must be protected under law, and press freedom must be sacrosanct.
International Oversight: ECOWAS, AU, and global watchdogs must speak out and intervene diplomatically where necessary.
*The Price of Silence*
Nigeria stands at a dangerous crossroads. The allure of stability through one-party dominance is a mirage. It sacrifices accountability, pluralism, and ultimately peace. If history has taught us anything, it is that centralized power always turns predatory.
Thomas Sankara once said, _”You cannot carry out fundamental change without a certain amount of madness. It takes the madmen of yesterday for us to act with clarity today.”_ Let Nigeria’s youth, civil society, and true patriots be that change.
If the current trend continues unchecked, we may wake up in a country where elections are rituals, opposition is symbolic, and freedom is fictional. That is not the Nigeria we deserve.
It is time to resist the creeping autocracy. It is time to reclaim our democracy.
‘Sylvester is a political analyst, he writes from South Africa’
Politics
Political Earthquake in Kano: How, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Nasiru Gawuna’s Move to ADC Reshapes North-West Politics
Political Earthquake in Kano: How, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Nasiru Gawuna’s Move to ADC Reshapes North-West Politics
The political atmosphere of Nigeria’s North-West was fundamentally altered on a sweltering afternoon in 2026 after Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso former Governor of Kano State and Former Minister for Defence who is also the “Grand Commander” of the Red-Cap revolution, finalized a move that many viewed as the ultimate masterstroke of his political career. By transitioning from the NNPP to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Kwankwaso did more than change platforms; he effectively reset the coordinates of the nation’s largest voting bloc.
Senator Kwankwaso’s pedigree is defined by a singular devotion to human capital development and an almost mythical grassroots loyalty preceded him. He turned a local movement, the Kwankwasiyya, into a disciplined, ideological army that transcends traditional party structures. His entry into the ADC instantly transformed a secondary party into a formidable fortress, signaling to the ruling elite that the North-West is no longer a monolith under their control.
The gravity of this shift is most profound in Kano, the heartbeat of Northern commerce. For years, the state was a polarized battlefield between the Kwankwasiyya and established conservative wings. However, the entry of Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna into the same ADC orbit has created a “Kano Super-Alliance” that was previously unthinkable. Kwankwaso, the visionary architect who sent thousands of Kano’s children to global universities, now finds his populist ideology merging with Gawuna’s administrative steadiness and deep-rooted institutional connections.
This synergy is a seismic departure from the politics of “zero-sum” rivalry; it is a calculated fusion of mass appeal and the strategic machinery required to protect and deliver votes.
This move reshuffles the entire North-West deck. As Kwankwaso plants the ADC flag across the region, he is attracting a wave of heavyweights from Kaduna to Sokoto who feel marginalized by the status quo. His political pedigree allows him to speak with a regional authority that others lack, positioning himself as a protector during a time of economic uncertainty. By bringing Gawuna into this fold, the dynamics of Kano politics have shifted from a war of attrition to a coalition of necessity. This alliance creates a “Third Way” that bypasses the failures of the old guard, promising a return to the rapid growth that defined the Kwankwaso years, but with a broader, more inclusive base that could dictate the occupant of Aso Rock in 2027.
Kwankwaso’s career has always been defined by a uniquely personal brand of power. From 1999 to 2015, he served two terms as Governor of Kano State, in addition to roles as Minister of Defence and Senator. While many were surprised by his recent maneuvers; especially following closed-door meetings with President Bola Tinubu, he chose the emerging ADC over the ruling APC.
In the high-stakes theater of Nigerian politics, few events have jolted the region quite like the defection of Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna from the APC to the ADC on March 31, 2026. Coming just twenty-four hours after Kwankwaso’s move, Gawuna’s transition fundamentally has also altered the political calculus in Kano. What makes this moment remarkable is the sheer drama of the reversal. Gawuna’s political journey has been a steady, calculated ascent through Kano’s establishment. He first shot to prominence as Commissioner of Agriculture under Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, earning a reputation for hands-on management in a state where farming is the economic backbone. He eventually rose to Deputy Governor, serving for nearly six years and gaining invaluable executive experience. Beyond partisan politics, Gawuna distinguished himself as Chairman of the Governing Council of Bayero University and, most recently, as Chairman of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN). He resigned from the FMBN on March 27, 2026, citing compliance with presidential directives regarding political appointees.
A look back at the 2023 gubernatorial election reveals just how significant Gawuna is. Running under the APC, he polled over 890,000 votes against the formidable Kwankwasiyya machine. This proved that he is one of the few politicians in Kano who can genuinely compete with Kwankwaso’s electoral machinery. His strength is threefold: he appeals to the youth, the religious establishment (Ulama), and the business community; he has the capacity to split the APC vote; and he has demonstrated he can deliver votes independently of a larger party wave. To understand the magnitude of this defection, one must appreciate the complete inversion of alliances since 2023. Back then, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf ran on the NNPP ticket with Kwankwaso’s backing, while Gawuna carried the APC banner with Ganduje’s support. By 2027, the roles will likely reverse: Governor Yusuf is positioned to run under the APC with Ganduje’s blessing, while Gawuna is poised to run under the ADC with Kwankwaso’s endorsement.
From the perspective of the Kwankwasiyya movement, Gawuna’s arrival is a “return” rather than a “recruitment,” as he was part of the movement’s pioneer cohort. This narrative neutralizes accusations of opportunism. For his part, Gawuna framed his move in terms of service and divine guidance, with sources indicating he felt marginalized within the APC after his 2023 defeat.
The reaction from within the APC has been one of worry and regret. President Tinubu, recognizing the stakes, reportedly directed party leaders to prevent Gawuna’s move, even offering him an automatic Senatorial ticket for 2027. The failure of this pressure campaign, Gawuna reportedly placed his phone on “Do Not Disturb” and traveled abroad to avoid lobbyists represents a significant defeat for the presidency’s political management. This crisis prompted emergency meetings between President Tinubu, Dr. Ganduje, and Badaru Abubakar at the Presidential Villa to reorganize their strategy.
The long-term implication is the potential break of the APC-PDP duopoly. The ADC is now positioning itself as a genuine “third force” in the North-West. The defection of high-profile figures like Senator Ahmed Babba-Kaita, Senator Aishatu “Binani” Ahmed, and former Justice Minister Abubakar Malami suggests a coordinated realignment. This competition could force more substantive policy debates and reduce the “zero-sum” intensity of regional elections.
The projected 2027 gubernatorial rematch between Gawuna (ADC) and Governor Yusuf (APC) will be a battle between two men with established records. Voters will have a genuine choice between performance and platform rather than just shifting loyalties. As Gawuna put it: “Allah gives power to whom He wants and when He wants.” While the 2027 elections will reveal where that power flows, it is already clear that the political landscape of the North-West will never look the same again.
Politics
Governor Dauda Lawal Approves Gratuity Payment
Governor Dauda Lawal Approves Gratuity Payment
The Zamfara State Government, under the visionary leadership of Governor Dauda Lawal, has approved the release of funds for the payment of Gratuity Batch 3 for the 2024/25 period. This decisive action underscores the administration’s unwavering commitment to the welfare of retired civil servants who dedicated years of service to the state’s development.
The Accountant General of the State is already working diligently to ensure that all eligible retirees receive their payments promptly and efficiently, reflecting the government’s resolve to uphold transparency and accountability in the disbursement process.
This timely gratuity payment is a testament to Governor Dauda Lawal’s people-centered leadership, which recognizes the sacrifices and contributions of retirees to the progress and stability of Zamfara State. It also reaffirms the government’s pledge to honor its financial obligations without unnecessary delays.
The Zamfara State Government calls on all retirees in the affected batch to exercise patience as the necessary administrative and financial processes are finalized. Every effort is being made to ensure smooth and uninterrupted payments.
This initiative is part of Governor Dauda Lawal’s broader vision to empower citizens and retirees, strengthen confidence in public service, and sustain the morale of those who have committed their lives to the growth of Zamfara State.
Politics
APC Group Endorses Fubara for 2027, Calls on Tinubu and APC to Prioritise Performance Over Politics in Backing Governor’s Second Term Ambition
*APC Group Endorses Fubara for 2027, Calls on Tinubu and APC to Prioritise Performance Over Politics in Backing Governor’s Second Term Ambition*
The APC National Vanguard has appealed to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to support a second term in office for Siminalayi Fubara, citing what it described as “impressive and verifiable developmental strides” across Rivers State.
In a statement issued on Thursday by its National President, Dr Gbenga Salam (JP), the group said its position followed an extensive assessment tour of key infrastructure and public service projects executed under the Fubara administration.
The APC National Vanguard said the appeal was based strictly on performance, arguing that governance outcomes should outweigh partisan considerations, particularly in a state as economically significant as Rivers.
“We respectfully urge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the leadership of the All Progressives Congress to support the continuity of Governor Siminalayi Fubara beyond his current tenure, in recognition of his commitment to development, prudent resource management, and people-focused governance,” the statement read.
According to the group, its delegation visited multiple project sites across the state, observing ongoing and completed works spanning road construction, urban renewal, and public infrastructure upgrades.
It noted that the scale and distribution of these projects reflect a deliberate effort by the state government to extend development beyond traditional urban centres and into underserved communities.
“Our findings from the tour reveal a government that is not only active but intentional in its development agenda. The execution of capital projects across various parts of Rivers State demonstrates a clear understanding of the needs of the people and a commitment to addressing them,” Dr Salam said.
The group particularly commended what it described as prudent financial management by the administration, noting that the projects reviewed showed evidence of careful planning and efficient allocation of resources.
“At a time when economic pressures are evident across the country, it is commendable that the Rivers State government has managed its resources in a way that delivers visible and impactful development without signs of fiscal recklessness,” the statement added.
The APC National Vanguard further observed that despite political tensions in the state, the Fubara administration has maintained focus on governance, ensuring continuity in project execution and service delivery.
The group argued that such stability is critical for sustained development and should be encouraged rather than disrupted.
“Leadership must ultimately be judged by results. In Rivers State, there is clear evidence of progress—projects that are not only announced but executed, and policies that translate into real benefits for citizens,” Dr Salam noted.
The group warned that discontinuity in leadership could stall ongoing projects and reverse gains already recorded, stressing the importance of allowing a performing administration to consolidate its achievements.
“Rivers State is at a pivotal stage where continuity will allow for the completion of ongoing initiatives and the deepening of development gains. Supporting Governor Fubara for a second term is, therefore, a decision in the best interest of the people,” the statement said.
In addition to its call on the APC leadership, the group reaffirmed its support for President Tinubu, expressing confidence in his administration’s broader economic and governance reforms.
The APC group urged Nigerians to remain supportive of efforts aimed at stabilising the economy and strengthening public institutions.
“We reiterate our endorsement of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second term in office, in recognition of his leadership and commitment to national development. With sustained support, the administration can consolidate its reform agenda for the benefit of all Nigerians,” Dr Salam added.
The APC National Vanguard concluded by calling on political actors to prioritise development and public interest over partisan divides, insisting that governance should always be guided by performance and accountability.
“Where leadership demonstrates prudence, delivers development, and remains focused on the welfare of the people, it deserves continuity. This is the position we have reached after a careful and independent assessment of Rivers State,” the statement added.
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