society

Nigeria’s N58.18trn Budget and Rising Cost of Deficit Governance

Published

3 months ago

December 30, 2025

Sahara Weekly

Nigeria’s N58.18trn Budget and Rising Cost of Deficit Governance

BY BLAISE UDUNZE

When President Bola Tinubu presented the N58.18 trillion 2026 Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly, unbeknownst to some, it opened with a contradiction that should unsettle even its most optimistic readers. It is an irony that a budget promises consolidation, renewed resilience, and shared prosperity, at the same time, it is built on a deficit of N23.85 trillion, as the largest budget in the nation’s history, equivalent to 4.28 percent of GDP, financed largely through borrowing, and debt servicing alone will consume N15.52 trillion, nearly half of the projected revenue. What a contradiction! The reality today is that Nigeria is borrowing not primarily to expand productive capacity or unlock long-term growth, but to keep the machinery of the state running. Salaries, overheads, inherited liabilities, and interest payments increasingly define the purpose of new debt. Capital formation, though loudly advertised, struggles to keep pace with fiscal reality. This raises a fundamental and unavoidable question. How sustainable is a fiscal model where debt service crowds out development spending year after year? Until this question is convincingly answered, no amount of reform rhetoric can restore confidence in Nigeria’s budgeting process.

A Nation Drowning in Deficits and Debt

The problem with the deficit is that it is not a number by itself. It shows that there are problems with the way things are set up. By the middle of 2025, Nigeria owed a lot of money, N152.4 trillion, which represented about a 348.6 percent increase following the assumption of President Bola Tinubu into office in 2023. Before he assumed office, the country owed N33.3 trillion, and this is a country that was already having trouble paying for basic things it needed to.

Reflecting on Nigeria’s predicament, it mirrors a wider African crisis. Reviewing the occurrences across the continent of Africa, external debt now surpassed $1.3 trillion, while the debt servicing costs are estimated at $89 billion this year alone. Nigeria’s case is unique not because of the amount of debt, but because of its poor productive return. The lingering challenge is that Nigeria’s borrowing has skyrocketed, yet the economy remains conspicuously faced with fragile infrastructure. The fiscal irony is stark that Nigeria is borrowing to survive, not to thrive.

A Deficit-Fuelled Budget and the Rising Cost of Survival

Deficits can be useful tools when deployed strategically. But Nigeria’s deficits have become structural, persistent, and increasingly divorced from growth outcomes. The N23.85 trillion deficit in the 2026 budget represents a dramatic escalation from the N11-N12 trillion range of recent years. Analysts warn that this is no longer a counter-cyclical policy; it is a sign of fiscal stress. Tilewa Adebajo, Chief Executive Officer of CFG Advisory, describes Nigeria’s fiscal space as “the biggest threat to our economic recovery.” According to him, the country continues to expand its budget despite failing to meet revenue targets. “We cannot have a N23 trillion deficit, that’s not sustainable,” he warned, noting that deficits have doubled in just a few years. More troubling is what the deficit implies. With N15.52 trillion earmarked for debt servicing, nearly half of the projected revenue is already spoken for before development spending begins. Some estimates suggest that over 25 percent of Nigeria’s annual revenue now goes directly into debt servicing, and in certain months, the ratio rises far higher. Experts warn that when over 90 percent of revenue is consumed by old debts, governance becomes an exercise in survival rather than progress. This is the fiscal corner Nigeria is steadily backing itself into.

Borrowing to Run Government, Not to Build the Economy

Between July and October 2025 alone, Nigeria secured over $24.79 billion in new borrowings, alongside €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, $500 million in sukuk, and other facilities, most justified as “development financing.” Yet the real sector continues to wait for a tangible impact. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) argues that a budget planning to generate N34 trillion in revenue while borrowing nearly N24 trillion amounts to an admission of fiscal insolvency. A deficit-to-revenue ratio approaching 70 percent, it insists, would be unacceptable in any functional fiscal system. While opposition language is often sharp, the underlying concern is valid. Borrowing makes economic sense only when it finances self-liquidating projects like investments that generate revenue to repay the loans. Instead, Nigeria increasingly borrows to service past debts and plug recurrent expenditure gaps. Uche Uwaleke, Professor of Finance and Capital Markets at Nasarawa State University, underscores the danger: “Nigeria’s debt service ratio is inimical to economic development, chiefly because what could have been used to build infrastructure and invest in human capital is used to service debt. The opportunity cost for the country is high.” In effect, debt has shifted from a development instrument to a fiscal life support system.

Revenue Projections Caught Between Reform Ambition and Structural Limits

The Nigerian government projected N34.33 trillion in revenue for 2026, which is squarely anchored on improved oil output, non-oil tax reforms, and digitised revenue mobilisation across Government-Owned Enterprises (GOEs). To actualize its target, President Tinubu vowed to clamp down on leakages, enforce performance targets, and deploy real-time monitoring systems. Though these reforms are necessary. The question is whether they are sufficient and timely. Recent performance suggests caution. As at Q3 2025, only 61 percent of revenue targets had been achieved. Capital releases lagged sharply, and comprehensive implementation reports have not been published. Ayokunle Olubunmi, Head of Financial Institutions Ratings at Agusto & Co., expressed doubts about the credibility of the projections, citing weak performance in 2024 and 2025. “We don’t even know how many budgets we are implementing now,” Olubunmi observed, pointing to overlapping cycles and missing reports. The ADC goes further, describing revenue projections as detached from reality, while noting that revenue growth in 2024 was largely driven by currency devaluation, not structural expansion, before being doubled for 2025 and increased again for 2026. Nominal gains, it argues, are being mistaken for real fiscal strength. Without deep structural reforms, reliable power, export diversification, and productivity growth, revenue expansion risks remaining inflationary and fragile, unable to support the scale of spending proposed.

Budget Execution and the Credibility Gap

President Tinubu has declared 2026 a turning point. He promised an end to overlapping budgets, abandoned projects, and perpetual rollovers. All prior capital liabilities, he said, will be closed by March 31, 2026, ushering in a single budget cycle. Yet Nigeria’s execution record invites skepticism. The Coalition of United Opposition Political Parties (CUPP) points out that no comprehensive 2025 budget implementation report has been published, the first such lapse in 15 years. Quarterly performance reports, once routine, have been withheld, violating fiscal responsibility norms. “How can a new budget be proposed when the performance of the current one remains unknown?” CUPP asked. Execution failure is not cosmetic; it is costly. Projects stall, costs balloon, and borrowed funds yield no returns. Without transparency and enforcement, discipline risks becoming a slogan rather than a system.

Capital Spending vs the Persistent Cost of Governance

The N26.08 trillion allocated to capital expenditure is one of the budget’s most advertised strengths, with infrastructure, agriculture, education, and health featuring prominently. Yet Nigeria’s history cautions against equating allocations with outcomes. Recurrent non-debt expenditure remains high at N15.25 trillion, reflecting a governance structure that consumes significant resources. Ministries, departments, agencies, and political overheads continue to limit fiscal space. Mr. Idakolo Gbolade of SD&D Capital Management acknowledges the budget’s ambition but warns that over 70 percent of capital expenditure may be carried over into 2026. This suggests that implementation bottlenecks remain unresolved. Borrowing to fund capital projects that are delayed or abandoned compounds fiscal inefficiency. Nigeria risks paying interest on infrastructure that exists only on paper. Until the cost of governance is structurally reduced, capital spending will struggle to deliver transformative impact, regardless of headline figures.

Security Spending at Scale, But Lacking Clarity

Security receives the largest sectoral allocation, N5.41 trillion, alongside a new national counterterrorism doctrine targeting all armed non-state actors. The administration argues, correctly, that without security, investment cannot thrive. On the contrary, Nigeria’s experience shows that security spending does not automatically translate into security outcomes. Over the years, allocations have risen while insecurity persists across multiple regions. The challenge is not merely funding, but accountability, coordination, and effectiveness. Without transparency in procurement and deployment, security budgets risk becoming opaque sinks for public funds, undermining the very growth assumptions embedded in the budget.

Shared Prosperity Under Pressure

Though the budget promises shared prosperity, citing allocations of N3.52 trillion for education and N2.48 trillion for health, alongside agricultural and infrastructure investments, and with the National Bureau of Statistics announcement that inflation has moderated, and growth has improved modestly. Yet for ordinary Nigerians, relief remains elusive. Food prices are high, transport costs elevated, and real incomes squeezed. Social sector spending still struggles to keep pace with population growth. Shared prosperity cannot remain an aspiration deferred to the future. It must translate into jobs, affordable food, functioning schools, accessible healthcare, and rising real incomes.

Borrowing Without Beneficiaries

At the 2025 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C., global leaders again pledged to address developing countries’ debt burdens. But as Nigeria continues to issue Eurobonds, sukuk, and bilateral loans, a simple question demands attention: who benefits from all this borrowing? If the answer is not citizens, businesses, and future generations, then the debt is not development finance; it is deferred hardship.

When Deficits Become Destiny

The 2026 budget reflects an administration aware of Nigeria’s fiscal dysfunctions and eager to correct them. The language of discipline, digitisation, and delivery signals intent. But credibility is not declared; it is earned. A deficit-driven budget that leans heavily on borrowing, struggles with revenue realism, and carries unresolved execution gaps places Nigeria on a narrow fiscal path. If borrowing is decisively tied to self-liquidating projects, transparency restored, and governance costs reduced, the budget could mark a turning point. If not, it risks confirming a grim truth as Nigeria is financing today by mortgaging tomorrow. Until debt stops crowding out development and revenue begins to fund governance rather than merely service it, deficits will no longer be temporary tools. They will become destiny.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]

society

BREAKING: Onireti Appointed Director-General of City Boy Movement in Oyo State

Published

7 hours ago

April 7, 2026

Sahara Weekly

BREAKING: Onireti Appointed Director-General of City Boy Movement in Oyo State

The political atmosphere in Oyo State recorded a major development on Monday with the appointment of Hon. Olufemi Onireti as the new Director-General of the City Boy Movement, the grassroots mobilisation structure championing support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu across the country.

The appointment was announced by the movement’s Director-General, Mr Francis Shoga, in Abuja on Tuesday during the handover of the appointment letter to Onireti.

This is coming days after his resignation from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), where he had been an active figure and former House of Representatives candidate.

His new role is expected to reposition the group’s activities and strengthen its outreach ahead of future political engagements in Oyo State.

According to the movement’s leadership, Onireti was chosen based on his “wide political network, proven organisational capacity and strong presence among the youth and grassroots stakeholders.”

Speaking with newsmen, Onireti expressed gratitude for the confidence reposed in him and pledged to deploy his experience to advance the objectives of the City Boy Movement across the state.

Onireti said his decision to join the ruling party was a personal conviction shaped by ongoing political realignments and his commitment to supporting a broader progressive coalition at both state and national levels.

Hon. Onireti added that his appointment followed extensive consultations and harmonisation with his followers.

He assured supporters that his leadership would prioritise inclusiveness, strategic mobilisation and effective communication.

“I am committed to galvanising our structures and ensuring that Oyo State remains a stronghold for the ideals we stand for,” he said.

Political observers note that his appointment may shift the dynamics of political mobilisation in Oyo State, given his influence and recent political moves.

The City Boy Movement is expected to unveil its new operational roadmap in the coming days.

The movement, a prominent youth-driven support platform advancing President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda, positions Onireti to lead its grassroots mobilisation efforts in Oyo as part of its national structure ahead of the 2027 elections.

society

Ariko Church Attack: IGP Disu Deploys DIG As Police Rescue Seven Kidnap Victims

Published

11 hours ago

April 7, 2026

Sahara Weekly

Ariko Church Attack: IGP Disu Deploys DIG As Police Rescue Seven Kidnap Victims

The Inspector-General of Police, Olatunji Rilwan Disu, has ordered the immediate deployment of the Deputy Inspector-General of Police in charge of Operations, Shehu Umar Nadada, to Kaduna State following a deadly bandit attack on Ariko Village near Gurara Dam.

The assault, which occurred on April 5, 2026, targeted worshippers at ECWA and Catholic churches in the community, with gunmen opening fire indiscriminately. Five persons were confirmed dead, while no fewer than fourteen others were abducted during the coordinated হাম.

In a swift operational response, the police high command mandated a high-level intervention, tasking DIG Nadada with leading on-the-ground coordination of security efforts aimed at stabilising the area and facilitating the safe recovery of the victims.

Security operations conducted in collaboration with the Nigerian Army and the Department of State Services (DSS) have already yielded results, with seven of the abducted persons rescued. The victims were evacuated to Katari Hospital for urgent medical attention and are reported to be in stable condition, awaiting reunification with their families.

Police authorities disclosed that tactical operations remain ongoing to secure the release of the remaining captives and apprehend those responsible for the ആക്രമം, underscoring a renewed push to degrade criminal networks operating within the axis.

Reaffirming the Force’s commitment to public safety, the IGP called on residents to remain vigilant and support ongoing operations by providing credible and actionable intelligence to security agencies.

society

The Unfinished Rescue Mission: Ten Reasons Zamfara Must Re-elect Governor Dauda Lawal in 2027

Published

16 hours ago

April 7, 2026

Sahara Weekly

The Unfinished Rescue Mission: Ten Reasons Zamfara Must Re-elect Governor Dauda Lawal in 2027

By Oladapo Sofowora

In the resilient heart of Northwestern Nigeria, a different kind of storm is blowing hard. It is not the whirlwind of banditry that has long defined Zamfara State, but the quiet, determined tempest of reconstruction and recalibration done by Governor Dauda Lawal, who took the reins of a state gasping for air choked by insecurity, bankrupt of spirit, and paralyzed by decades of maladministration steering it to the path of prosperity. Three years into his first term, the landscape is shifting and the story is changing for the better. Yet, every revolution needs time to root. For Zamfara indigenes, here are ten detailed reasons why they must hand Governor Dauda Lawal another mandate to steer the state to the promised land, so as to enable him to finish the work he has so boldly begun.

1. The Security Recalibration

For years, Zamfara’s security apparatus was reactive, arriving after villages had been razed, but Governor Lawal changed the paradigm with a shift. He didn’t just procure guns; he built a comprehensive Zamfara Community Guard integrated with local vigilantes and formal military intelligence that has served its purpose of gathering local intelligence and sharing it with security agencies to tackle all sorts of insecurity in the state. His administration invested over ₦4 billion in surveillance drones, armoured personnel carriers, and rapid-response communication towers across the 14 local government areas. The result? A 60% reduction in major attacks in the last 18 months. Another term means expanding this network to the most remote forests of Tsafe and Maradun, finally breaking the spine of the criminal enclaves. One term was used to stabilize the patient; a second term handed to him will cure the disease totally.

2. The Restoration of Integrity in the Civil Service Structure

Before Lawal, Zamfara’s civil service was a graveyard of productivity, infested with “ghost workers” who drained the treasury, leveraging a lacuna created by the previous administration. Upon resumption, the Governor commissioned a forensic biometric audit in which over 5,000 fictitious names were expunged from the payroll, saving the state over ₦1.2 billion monthly. More importantly, he cleared 18 months of salary arrears inherited from the previous administration within his first 100 days. A second term handed to him via the ballot will focus on capacity building and promotions based on merit, transforming the bureaucracy from a parasitic entity into an engine of service delivery.

3. The Educational State of Emergency

Banditry had turned over 300 schools into abandoned ruins, with teachers fleeing and children being abducted. Governor Lawal declared a state of emergency on education. He has since reconstructed 200 primary schools with fortified walls and secure hostels. The “School Feeding and Safe Return” program brought back 150,000 out-of-school children. But the job is half done. The remaining 150 schools in high-risk zones need the same treatment. Re-electing Lawal means ensuring no child in Zamfara has to choose between a bullet and a book.

4. Functioning Primary Healthcare Across the State

For a decade, rural Zamfara relied on patent medicine sellers for life-saving care. Governor Lawal refurbished 147 Primary Healthcare Centers (PHCs), equipping each with solar power, vaccines, and at least two resident nurses. He launched the Zamfara Health Voucher Scheme, giving 50,000 vulnerable women free antenatal and delivery care. The time of medical pilgrimage is over as the state now boasts of a functioning MRI machine among other sophisticated medical machines. A second term will see the full completion and upgrade of three zonal general hospitals in Gusau, Kaura Namoda, and Anka, bringing surgery and emergency care within reach of every citizen.

5. Agricultural Revolution

Zamfara is a state predominantly with farmers; true to its slogan, ‘Farming is our pride’, despite the rich soil, farmers are poor and are being terrorized from their farmlands due to insecurity. Lawal’s “Farming Without Fear” initiative partnered with the military to create secure agricultural corridors during planting and harvest seasons. He distributed drought-resistant seeds and solar-powered water pumps to 40,000 farmers. The state’s rice and maize output tripled last year. Yet, the missing link is processing. With a cargo airport in place and a readily available market, there will be a major boost in agricultural business in the state. A second term will see the establishment of a staple crop processing zone (SCPZ) in Gusau, turning raw produce into export-ready goods and ending the exploitation of middlemen.

6. The Portable Water Revolution

Gusau and its environs relied on a water treatment plant built in 1978. It was a relic, but Governor Lawal secured a ₦15 billion loan from the World Bank to rehabilitate the Damaturu Water Scheme, increasing daily capacity from 15 million to 50 million liters. For the first time in a generation, taps are flowing in Talata Mafara and Shinkafi. But some rural communities still trek for hours to get portable drinking water. A second term will extend this reticulated network to 200 additional rural communities, making water a right, not a luxury.

7. The Economic Inclusion of Empowering Women and Youth

Banditry thrived because idle young men were easily lured. Lawal countered this with the Zamfara Youth Empowerment Trust (ZAYET), training 10,000 youths in tailoring, ICT, and solar installation, and giving them startup capital. His Kaura Economic Stimulus provided 20,000 women with ₦50,000 each to revive small-scale trading. The recidivism rate into crime among beneficiaries is less than 2%. A second term will scale this to reach all 147 wards, ensuring that the economic ladder is long enough for every willing citizen to climb.

8. Transparency and Accountability in Governance Pact

Governor Lawal is the first Zamfara governor to publish monthly financial statements on the state government website, including details of every constituency project actualized. He voluntarily subjected the state’s accounts to a forensic audit by the EFCC and ICPC; a move his predecessors fought to block. The result is a restored relationship with international donors (UNDP, EU), who have returned to fund developmental projects across the state because Governor Lawal puts to use every fund given with accountability. One term has proven his integrity; a second term will institutionalize it, creating a culture of governance where public funds are put to judicious use without being siphoned.

9. Justice Sector Reform by Decongesting the Prisons and Prosecuting the Convicted

Zamfara’s prisons were incubators for radicalization, filled with petty offenders and low-level herders, while bandit kingpins roamed freely across the state. Lawal’s administration, in partnership with the judiciary, released 1,200 detainees held for minor offenses without trial, decongesting the facilities. Simultaneously, a specialized mobile court has secured 50 convictions against bandit collaborators and informants. A second term will focus on building a modern correctional center and strengthening the witness protection program, ensuring that justice is both swift and safe to administer.

10. The Legacy of Resilience in Rebuilding Social Trust

The most profound reason to re-elect Dauda Lawal is the hope his administration brings. He inherited a traumatized populace that no longer believed the state could protect them. Today, markets in Gusau stay open past 6 PM. Farmers sleep in their own homes instead of bush hideouts. Internally displaced persons are voluntarily returning to their ancestral lands. This psychological shift from fear to cautious optimism is the most fragile and precious asset Zamfara has gained. Destroying it by returning to the old ways would be catastrophic. A second term will solidify this trust, transforming resilience into permanent recovery.

Governor Dauda Lawal has not performed miracles in one term; miracles are for saints, not statesmen. But what he has done is to perform the harder task ahead. He has laid a solid foundation of competence, security, and integrity where there was only rubble. The Zamfara of today does not need a new experiment; it needs the continuation of a working plan already in motion. Re-electing Dauda Lawal again is not about rewarding the past; it is about securing the future ahead. The first term broke the curse of neglect; the second term will recalibrate the fortune of the state to prosperity.