society
Nigeria’s N58.18trn Budget and Rising Cost of Deficit Governance
Nigeria’s N58.18trn Budget and Rising Cost of Deficit Governance
BY BLAISE UDUNZE
When President Bola Tinubu presented the N58.18 trillion 2026 Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly, unbeknownst to some, it opened with a contradiction that should unsettle even its most optimistic readers. It is an irony that a budget promises consolidation, renewed resilience, and shared prosperity, at the same time, it is built on a deficit of N23.85 trillion, as the largest budget in the nation’s history, equivalent to 4.28 percent of GDP, financed largely through borrowing, and debt servicing alone will consume N15.52 trillion, nearly half of the projected revenue. What a contradiction! The reality today is that Nigeria is borrowing not primarily to expand productive capacity or unlock long-term growth, but to keep the machinery of the state running. Salaries, overheads, inherited liabilities, and interest payments increasingly define the purpose of new debt. Capital formation, though loudly advertised, struggles to keep pace with fiscal reality. This raises a fundamental and unavoidable question. How sustainable is a fiscal model where debt service crowds out development spending year after year? Until this question is convincingly answered, no amount of reform rhetoric can restore confidence in Nigeria’s budgeting process.
A Nation Drowning in Deficits and Debt
The problem with the deficit is that it is not a number by itself. It shows that there are problems with the way things are set up. By the middle of 2025, Nigeria owed a lot of money, N152.4 trillion, which represented about a 348.6 percent increase following the assumption of President Bola Tinubu into office in 2023. Before he assumed office, the country owed N33.3 trillion, and this is a country that was already having trouble paying for basic things it needed to.
Reflecting on Nigeria’s predicament, it mirrors a wider African crisis. Reviewing the occurrences across the continent of Africa, external debt now surpassed $1.3 trillion, while the debt servicing costs are estimated at $89 billion this year alone. Nigeria’s case is unique not because of the amount of debt, but because of its poor productive return. The lingering challenge is that Nigeria’s borrowing has skyrocketed, yet the economy remains conspicuously faced with fragile infrastructure. The fiscal irony is stark that Nigeria is borrowing to survive, not to thrive.
A Deficit-Fuelled Budget and the Rising Cost of Survival
Deficits can be useful tools when deployed strategically. But Nigeria’s deficits have become structural, persistent, and increasingly divorced from growth outcomes. The N23.85 trillion deficit in the 2026 budget represents a dramatic escalation from the N11-N12 trillion range of recent years. Analysts warn that this is no longer a counter-cyclical policy; it is a sign of fiscal stress. Tilewa Adebajo, Chief Executive Officer of CFG Advisory, describes Nigeria’s fiscal space as “the biggest threat to our economic recovery.” According to him, the country continues to expand its budget despite failing to meet revenue targets. “We cannot have a N23 trillion deficit, that’s not sustainable,” he warned, noting that deficits have doubled in just a few years. More troubling is what the deficit implies. With N15.52 trillion earmarked for debt servicing, nearly half of the projected revenue is already spoken for before development spending begins. Some estimates suggest that over 25 percent of Nigeria’s annual revenue now goes directly into debt servicing, and in certain months, the ratio rises far higher. Experts warn that when over 90 percent of revenue is consumed by old debts, governance becomes an exercise in survival rather than progress. This is the fiscal corner Nigeria is steadily backing itself into.
Borrowing to Run Government, Not to Build the Economy
Between July and October 2025 alone, Nigeria secured over $24.79 billion in new borrowings, alongside €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, $500 million in sukuk, and other facilities, most justified as “development financing.” Yet the real sector continues to wait for a tangible impact. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) argues that a budget planning to generate N34 trillion in revenue while borrowing nearly N24 trillion amounts to an admission of fiscal insolvency. A deficit-to-revenue ratio approaching 70 percent, it insists, would be unacceptable in any functional fiscal system. While opposition language is often sharp, the underlying concern is valid. Borrowing makes economic sense only when it finances self-liquidating projects like investments that generate revenue to repay the loans. Instead, Nigeria increasingly borrows to service past debts and plug recurrent expenditure gaps. Uche Uwaleke, Professor of Finance and Capital Markets at Nasarawa State University, underscores the danger: “Nigeria’s debt service ratio is inimical to economic development, chiefly because what could have been used to build infrastructure and invest in human capital is used to service debt. The opportunity cost for the country is high.” In effect, debt has shifted from a development instrument to a fiscal life support system.
Revenue Projections Caught Between Reform Ambition and Structural Limits
The Nigerian government projected N34.33 trillion in revenue for 2026, which is squarely anchored on improved oil output, non-oil tax reforms, and digitised revenue mobilisation across Government-Owned Enterprises (GOEs). To actualize its target, President Tinubu vowed to clamp down on leakages, enforce performance targets, and deploy real-time monitoring systems. Though these reforms are necessary. The question is whether they are sufficient and timely. Recent performance suggests caution. As at Q3 2025, only 61 percent of revenue targets had been achieved. Capital releases lagged sharply, and comprehensive implementation reports have not been published. Ayokunle Olubunmi, Head of Financial Institutions Ratings at Agusto & Co., expressed doubts about the credibility of the projections, citing weak performance in 2024 and 2025. “We don’t even know how many budgets we are implementing now,” Olubunmi observed, pointing to overlapping cycles and missing reports. The ADC goes further, describing revenue projections as detached from reality, while noting that revenue growth in 2024 was largely driven by currency devaluation, not structural expansion, before being doubled for 2025 and increased again for 2026. Nominal gains, it argues, are being mistaken for real fiscal strength. Without deep structural reforms, reliable power, export diversification, and productivity growth, revenue expansion risks remaining inflationary and fragile, unable to support the scale of spending proposed.
Budget Execution and the Credibility Gap
President Tinubu has declared 2026 a turning point. He promised an end to overlapping budgets, abandoned projects, and perpetual rollovers. All prior capital liabilities, he said, will be closed by March 31, 2026, ushering in a single budget cycle. Yet Nigeria’s execution record invites skepticism. The Coalition of United Opposition Political Parties (CUPP) points out that no comprehensive 2025 budget implementation report has been published, the first such lapse in 15 years. Quarterly performance reports, once routine, have been withheld, violating fiscal responsibility norms. “How can a new budget be proposed when the performance of the current one remains unknown?” CUPP asked. Execution failure is not cosmetic; it is costly. Projects stall, costs balloon, and borrowed funds yield no returns. Without transparency and enforcement, discipline risks becoming a slogan rather than a system.
Capital Spending vs the Persistent Cost of Governance
The N26.08 trillion allocated to capital expenditure is one of the budget’s most advertised strengths, with infrastructure, agriculture, education, and health featuring prominently. Yet Nigeria’s history cautions against equating allocations with outcomes. Recurrent non-debt expenditure remains high at N15.25 trillion, reflecting a governance structure that consumes significant resources. Ministries, departments, agencies, and political overheads continue to limit fiscal space. Mr. Idakolo Gbolade of SD&D Capital Management acknowledges the budget’s ambition but warns that over 70 percent of capital expenditure may be carried over into 2026. This suggests that implementation bottlenecks remain unresolved. Borrowing to fund capital projects that are delayed or abandoned compounds fiscal inefficiency. Nigeria risks paying interest on infrastructure that exists only on paper. Until the cost of governance is structurally reduced, capital spending will struggle to deliver transformative impact, regardless of headline figures.
Security Spending at Scale, But Lacking Clarity
Security receives the largest sectoral allocation, N5.41 trillion, alongside a new national counterterrorism doctrine targeting all armed non-state actors. The administration argues, correctly, that without security, investment cannot thrive. On the contrary, Nigeria’s experience shows that security spending does not automatically translate into security outcomes. Over the years, allocations have risen while insecurity persists across multiple regions. The challenge is not merely funding, but accountability, coordination, and effectiveness. Without transparency in procurement and deployment, security budgets risk becoming opaque sinks for public funds, undermining the very growth assumptions embedded in the budget.
Shared Prosperity Under Pressure
Though the budget promises shared prosperity, citing allocations of N3.52 trillion for education and N2.48 trillion for health, alongside agricultural and infrastructure investments, and with the National Bureau of Statistics announcement that inflation has moderated, and growth has improved modestly. Yet for ordinary Nigerians, relief remains elusive. Food prices are high, transport costs elevated, and real incomes squeezed. Social sector spending still struggles to keep pace with population growth. Shared prosperity cannot remain an aspiration deferred to the future. It must translate into jobs, affordable food, functioning schools, accessible healthcare, and rising real incomes.
Borrowing Without Beneficiaries
At the 2025 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C., global leaders again pledged to address developing countries’ debt burdens. But as Nigeria continues to issue Eurobonds, sukuk, and bilateral loans, a simple question demands attention: who benefits from all this borrowing? If the answer is not citizens, businesses, and future generations, then the debt is not development finance; it is deferred hardship.
When Deficits Become Destiny
The 2026 budget reflects an administration aware of Nigeria’s fiscal dysfunctions and eager to correct them. The language of discipline, digitisation, and delivery signals intent. But credibility is not declared; it is earned. A deficit-driven budget that leans heavily on borrowing, struggles with revenue realism, and carries unresolved execution gaps places Nigeria on a narrow fiscal path. If borrowing is decisively tied to self-liquidating projects, transparency restored, and governance costs reduced, the budget could mark a turning point. If not, it risks confirming a grim truth as Nigeria is financing today by mortgaging tomorrow. Until debt stops crowding out development and revenue begins to fund governance rather than merely service it, deficits will no longer be temporary tools. They will become destiny.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
Greed, Corruption and the Nigerian Malaise: Why We Are an Embarrassment to Ourselves.
Written by George Omagbemi Sylvaester |
Published by SaharaWeeklyNG.com
“How Self-Interest Has Undermined Nigeria’s Progress and What It Reveals About Our National Character.”
No nation’s identity is static, though it is forged in the crucible of history, culture, values and collective behaviour. Yet, for Nigeria, that crucible has, more often than not, revealed not our finest steel but our deepest corrosion. Today, billions around the world look at Nigeria not with admiration, but with exasperating disappointmentant not because we lack potential, but because we collectively betray it. The uncomfortable truth is this: Nigerians are an embarrassment to Nigeria when greed, corruption and self-interest become defining national traits.
This is not a cheap rhetorical flourish. It is a sober judgment backed by hard data, global indices and the frank observations of respected leaders and institutions.
A Nation Rankled by Corruption. The most authoritative global measure of corruption is the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) published annually by Transparency International. In the 2024 CPI, Nigeria scored a shocking 26 out of 100, placing it 140th out of 180 countries and among the world’s most corrupt nations. Low scores and rankings in this index signify a public sector perceived as deeply corrupt, where abuse of entrusted power for private gain is systemic rather than exceptional.
To put that into perspective: countries with similar scores include Iraq and Madagascar, while nations renowned for governance integrity (like Denmark and Finland) score above 88.
This is not just a poor showing and it is an indictment of a culture in which the stealing of public resources is so normalized that it has become a defining feature of our national identity.
Greed, Not Resources, Is the Real Curse. Nigeria’s overwhelming wealth in human and natural resources should have made it the envy of nations. We possess vast oil reserves, energy and a youthful population with boundless entrepreneurial energy. Yet, instead of translating into widespread prosperity, this bounty has become a resource curse with a situation in which wealth fuels CORRUPTION rather than DEVELOPMENT.
Institutions meant to safeguard the public interest are instead captured by private interests. Billions of dollars from oil revenues, subsidies and contracts vanish into private pockets or are siphoned overseas. Even when recovered, these funds tell a story of how much was stolen in the first place. The United States recently returned $52.8 million in assets linked to a former Nigerian oil minister accused of embezzlement, underscoring how leadership greed has internationalized our shame.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo (a figure deeply intertwined with Nigeria’s post-military history) has stated bluntly that greed, selfishness and ignorance are the root causes of Nigeria’s malaise, saying that these forces undermine our collective destiny.
When Greed Becomes a National Habit. Greed manifests itself not only among political elites, but across society. It shapes decisions, behaviour and norms. For too many, the overriding question is: “WHAT’S IN IT FOR ME?” rather than “WHAT’S BEST FOR US ALL?”
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has noted that greed, laziness and peer pressure drive many youths into fraud and economic crimes. These are not isolated cases, but widespread issues that shape the country’s international image.
This is not merely a problem of a few “BAD APPLES” but it is a CULTURAL PATHOLOGY that erodes trust, destroys livelihoods and undermines institutions. When corruption becomes normalised, honesty becomes a liability and greed becomes an expected behaviour rather than an aberration.
The Economic Toll of Corruption and Greed.
Greed is not only immoral but economically destructive. Transparency International’s CPI and numerous global studies show a clear negative correlation between corruption and economic growth. Countries perceived as more corrupt attract far less foreign investment, suffer from weaker institutional trust, and have lower GDP per capita.
In Nigeria’s case, despite being Africa’s largest economy by GDP, its GDP per capita remains among the lowest on the continent and a sign that wealth is concentrated in the hands of few, while the majority languish in poverty. Corruption diverts public funds away from essential services like healthcare, education, power and infrastructure these sectors that should form the backbone of prosperity.
A Crisis of Trust and Values. When citizens see leaders behaving selfishly, it erodes trust in the entire social contract. Surveys reveal that while most Nigerians disapprove of corruption, many tolerate or rationalize it as a necessary evil in a dysfunctional system. This is tragic because it means the very fabric of civic morality is fraying.
A society that tolerates petty bribery, nepotism and embezzlement in public life also tolerates it in business, family and community. This betrayal of collective interest for personal advancement slowly transforms national identity into caricature.
Voices of Conscience: Scholars and Experts Speak
Renowned scholars have long warned of the dangers of institutionalised corruption. Pauline Baker, former President of the Global Fund for Peace, described Nigeria as an archetype of the “RESOURCE CURSE”, where wealth without accountability fuels corruption that cripples development.
Similarly, experts from Chatham House point out that corruption in Nigeria is not an isolated phenomenon but deeply embedded in social norms and expectations, impacting every level of governance and daily life.
These are not abstract academic critiques, they are reflections of a lived reality where greed has become systemic and self-interest undermines collective prosperity.
Cultural Change, Not Just Institutional Reform. To claim that “Nigerians are an embarrassment to Nigeria” is not to condemn individuals wholesale, but to call out a destructive culture that prioritises self-enrichment over national wellbeing. Change must be cultural as much as it is institutional.
The whistle-blowing policy introduced by Nigeria in 2016 (offering rewards for exposing corruption) is one initiative aimed at shifting behaviour, but it is not enough by itself.
Nigerians must reclaim values like integrity, accountability and patriotism. We must demand transparency from leaders, reject the notion that corruption is an acceptable survival strategy, and foster a culture that honours hard work and honesty.
Final Take: A Call to National Consciousness. We can no longer hide behind excuses. Our low ranking on the corruption index, the billions lost to embezzlement and the societal tolerance for greed are not just statistics, they are the everyday realities that have made Nigeria an embarrassment to itself, but this is also a moment for introspection and renewal. If we confront our faults honestly, embrace accountability and reject greed at every level, Nigeria can still rise to fulfill its promise.
As former President Obasanjo said, the problem is not destiny; it is human shortcomings like GREED and SELFISHNESS that have chained us.
The path forward demands courage and it is the courage to do what is right even when it is hard, the courage to serve others before self and the courage to restore Nigeria’s honour not through empty slogans, but through integrity and collective resolve.
Only then will we transform from an EMBARRASSMENT to an INSPIRATION.
Insecurity remains a pervasive, critical challenge across the country – Pastor Ben Eragbai
By Ifeoma Ikem
Pastor Ben Eragbai, the general overseer of Divine Appointment Ministry International says insecurity remains a pervasive and critical challenge across Nigeria which poses a direct threat and imminent danger to the citizens.
Eragbai who said this during a praise service at his church headquarters in Ajah Lagos noted that the worsening situation is impacting all citizens nationwide.
The praise service is an annual event which the church do to appreciate God Almighty and return all the praises to him for his mercy and grace from January to December.
He noted that Nigerians face daily anxiety on highways, farms, and in places of worship.
“The threats are diverse which include terrorism, banditry, mass kidnappings, farmer-herder clashes, Boko Haram insurgency etc.
“One of the employees that I recently employed ran away from his state after his parents were killed from attack.
“He is a talented boy that his tomorrow was cut short and nobody to train him to achieve his goal.
“When I employed him, I discovered that he is intelligent so I have to enroll him in a computer school, he would have become a another destitute in the society if no one acted.
He said that the persistent insecurity has crippled the economy, discouraging investors, and threatening to push millions into severe hunger by 2026 if urgent steps are not taken
The pastor added that the steps that President Bola Tinubu is taking to address insecurity will yield good results because the measures he has taken presently has proven 100 percent right.
“What we hear before was that these criminals are untouchable and that gives Boko Haram and bandits opportunity to strike the more”.
The president should continue the proactive approach to tackled insecurity and eliminate these criminals in their hideouts.
“The president should not relent on its efforts to return the nation to peace and prosperity.
“I will advise the presidency to build stronger intelligence networks, improve community relations to track fleeing terrorists and bandit, these will dismantle their networks and restore lasting peace across the nation and we will continue to pray along with him.
Eragbai called for vision on how people can work and earn a living not only giving them food but how to take them out of the street, train and equip them to have a brighter future .
“Many widows have benefited in my trainings, and I help in training their children up to tertiary institutions to the God”.
He prophesied that there is going to be a big challenge but that the wicked ones would be defeated.
“Psalm 91 vs 7 says a thousand shall fall at thy side, and ten thousand at thy right hand, but none shall come nigh thee.
He advised that everyone should embrace God and continue to pray without ceasing and allow God to fight His fight.
Also rice,ground nut oil, garri and other items were distributed to elderly ones.
society
The maiden get-together of Egbe Omo ERUKU Rere Ogun, Lagos chapter witnesses massive turnout
The maiden get-together of Egbe Omo ERUKU Rere Ogun, Lagos chapter witnesses massive turnout
…Featured the beautiful faces of its members.
~By Oluwaseun Fabiyi
Sunday, 28th December 2025, witnessed another significant feat for Egbe Omo ERUKU Rere worldwide as the Ogun and Lagos chapters organized their inaugural get-together event at the Killington Recreational Center, located in the Dalemo Alakuko area of Lagos State.
The event, which was expected to last 3 hours, drew a large crowd of male and female community members and extended to 6 hours without eliciting any complaints from those in attendance.
There are outstanding projects to be executed by the Egbe Omo ERUKU Rere couple, including a proposed mini-estate and recreational center within ErukuCity. To make this a commitment, one of the prominent members pledged N500,000 and, prior to the unification, he was moved to host the next get-together at his residence
All the distinguished sons and daughters of Eruku City who were members of the ‘Egbe Omo ERUKU Rere’ expressed their delight across individuals and shared unending joys together. Pounded yam and other delicacies were joyfully shared, and members were reluctant to return to their respective homes, with some still merry till 10pm. Full gist shortly
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