Politics
WHY THE OPPOSITION MIGHT WIN THE APC IN 2019
BY DELE MOMODU
*Excerpts from his article ‘Do these guys understand Arithmetic at all?’ on Thisday Backpage
‘….Let me now explain why it may not be so easy for President Buhari to play the Ekiti game nationally. It was said that about 30,000 police officers were drafted to maintain law and order in Ekiti State at the just concluded elections. I leave, for another day, the issues surrounding raging questions about how and where the government found the funding, capacity and willingness to deploy such humongous human and material security forces and equipment to a small State like Ekiti State in the wake of the ravaging Boko Haram menace, the rampaging herdsmen and the riotous militants. One would have thought that a nation afflicted with the security nightmare that insurgency, militancy and terrorism presents would not deem fit to deploy such military and police might for electioneering purposes when these terrible scourges are consuming the land. I suppose, the government considers winning elections and staying in power as much more important than the lives and security of the people they swore to protect when they assumed office. Whatever the reason, we saw what must be the largest possible example of the militarisation of a State since independence. That really is the point. Can this be sustained at the Federal level for the upcoming Presidential and gubernatorial elections? I doubt it. I give my reasons below.
The entire work force of the Nigerian Police is not more than about 300,000 personnel. With 30,000 police deployed to one state alone means about 10% of the work force being deployed to that State. Ekiti is one of the smallest States in the Federation, and there are 36 States and a Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Even if only 15,000 policemen were deployed to Ekiti State and there was a desire to do this at the national level for the Presidential elections, only 20 out of 36 States and the FCT would be covered. This would leave a shortfall of 16 States. If we take the Ekiti State example and deploy 30,000 per State, only 10 States would be covered. This would also mean that for the duration, the entire police force would only be dealing with elections. Open season indeed for crooks, criminals and terrorists! To be frank the question for the young student of arithmetic is where then would the government find such number of police per State to assemble, and possibly manipulate, to achieve pre-determined goals?
Depending on who the candidate of the PDP is, I’m certain, APC will find it difficult to have its past grip on the Northern Region. Contrary to the belief that President Buhari enjoys cult-followership in the North, the reality is that this is not the case and that this aphorism cannot stand any casual scrutiny not to mention rigorous examination. The ill-concealed fact is that the President is perceived to have such a cult following because of the outcome of the 2015 Presidential elections when the President won massively in the Northern part of Nigeria. However, the perception falls flat on its face when you examine the previous elections before 2015 critically. It is clear that the President did well in the North in those past elections, but the truth is that PDP did just as well. On a comparative basis in those previous elections, the President did a lot better this time around. What changed? As simplistic as it may sound, it was the ‘CHANGE’ mantra that made the difference.Significantly, people came together to work for President Buhari to emerge. It was not a solitary effort or lone victory! It was the victory of the people. Hitherto strong PDP enclaves suddenly saw President Buhari as the person who would bring them out of the doldrums and improve their lot. They supported him not because of what he stood for, or his person, but because they were weary and tired of the Jonathan government and its many acts of impunity, financial recklessness and brazen kleptocracy by senior government officials who did not have the welfare of the Nigerian masses at their heart.Indeed, the choice before Nigeria in 2015 was stark! It was either Jonathan or Buhari. And Nigerians did not want Jonathan much more than a case of wanting Buhari. We are at the same threshold now.
In truth, the PDP has traditionally been a Northern Party per se and it still commands substantial support in that area of the country. I keep saying that had President Jonathan been able to garner half the number of those who supported him in the North in the 2011 elections what we are saying today would not have been the story! A different reality would have been upon us. President Jonathan won in 2011 not because the North liked him personally, but because the North wanted to vote with PDP as it has been wont to do for many generations! PDP is beginning to learn its lesson and it is starting to make amends. The Party is no longer flaunting its greatly curtailed power. Its officers and Party faithfuls no longer take anything for granted.They know they must work hard to overcome the prejudices and biases of the people against them. They now appreciate that there is no certainty in politics. That realisation, which the APC appears to have had in 2015, is what the APC of 2018 now seems to be lacking. At the rate members are deserting APC in droves, it is only a matter of time before things fall apart completely.
The PDP will certainly field a Northerner to neutralise whatever might be the Buhari effect. This person would be certain to be heavily backed by other aspirants who may not get the party ticket. It is not likely that Buhari can overwhelmingly take over the North Central and North East this time around. Even in the North West, landslide victor is not assured. Every little whittling of the Buhari numbers from the 2015 elections diminishes his overall tally and makes him a sitting duck.
The promises made by APC would also be under critical scrutiny and those not kept would become subjects of public ridicule and odium. The Southern parts have become nearly no go zones, especially in the South South and South East. The South West is the only part where the President and APC may garner something a bit sizable from the Southern parts with the help of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the South West Governors. That is why Ekiti State suddenly became a do-or-die affair. The desperation was palpable, and victory had to be rammed down the throat of the electorate by all means, by hook or crook, by fire, by force! However, the use of force won’t work this time around, not least because the numbers just don’t add up and there is not enough manpower on the ground to replicate the Ekiti State debacle.
With the margin of victory in Ekiti State so slim and wafer thin, despite the massive security apparatus and personnel deployed to enforce a victory, it appears that the game is up! The numbers game may have finally caught up with the President. Something overtly drastic has to be attempted and done to turn things around positively.
Time will surely tell!’
Dele Momodu. Thisday, July 21 2018
Obasa Appointed to CPA African Executive Committee
The Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. (Dr.) Mudashiru Ajayi Obasa, has been appointed as a Sub-National Representative to the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association (CPA) African Executive Committee.
The announcement was formally conveyed through a letter from the CPA Africa Region, which was read on the floor of the Assembly by the Clerk, Mr. Olalekan Onafeko, on Tuesday, March 10. The appointment confirms Speaker Obasa’s three-year tenure, spanning 2026 to 2029.
Lawmakers took turns to congratulate Speaker Obasa, praising his devotion to parliamentary service and his consistent efforts to strengthen legislative practice. They described his appointment as a recognition of his hard work and a reflection of Lagos State’s growing influence within the Commonwealth. Members noted that his achievements continue to bring pride not only to Lagos but to Nigeria as a whole.
In his remarks, Speaker Obasa expressed gratitude to his colleagues for their support, urging them to remain steadfast in prioritizing the progress of the Assembly and to continue working collectively to advance the legislature. He further directed the Clerk to send a formal letter of appreciation to the CPA African Region for the honour bestowed upon him. “Let us always put the House of Assembly first and never relent in our efforts to move the legislature forward, ” Obasa concluded.
The CPA African Region plays a pivotal role in advancing the interests of African parliaments within the Commonwealth. It is widely recognized for promoting gender equality, women’s empowerment, respect for human rights, democracy, and good governance across member nations.
TINUBU RENEWS TENURE OF THREE PERMANENT SECRETARIES
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has approved the renewal of tenure for three Permanent Secretaries in the Federal Civil Service, in line with existing public service regulations.
The approval was disclosed in a statement issued by the Office of the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation, indicating that the renewed appointments will take effect from April 27, 2026.
The affected officials include Kachallom Shangti Daju, Permanent Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare; Beatrice Jedy‑Agba, Solicitor-General of the Federation and Permanent Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Justice; and Mary Ada Ogbe, Permanent Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Regional Development.
According to the statement, the renewal represents a second and final four-year tenure for the officials, in accordance with the provisions of Public Service Rule 020909, which allows Permanent Secretaries an initial four-year term with the possibility of a second term based on satisfactory performance.
The Head of the Civil Service of the Federation, Didi Esther Walson‑Jack, congratulated the Permanent Secretaries on their reappointment and urged them to see the renewed mandate as a call to greater dedication and excellence in service delivery.
She further encouraged them to deploy their experience and professional expertise toward strengthening governance and advancing national development.
The statement was signed by Eno Olotu, Director of Press and Public Relations in the Office of the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation, and dated March 6, 2026.
Politics
Governor Dauda Lawal’s Prompt Action Against Insecurity in Zamfara State Yielding Positive Result’ – GDL Media Force Fires Back at Critics
‘Governor Dauda Lawal’s Prompt Action Against Insecurity in Zamfara State Yielding Positive Result’ – GDL Media Force Fires Back at Critics
The attention of GDL Media Force and other well-meaning supporters of the Dauda Lawal-led administration has been drawn to a recent statement syndicated on social media by influencers from a group calling itself the Zamfara Good Governance Forum, which ludicrously attempted to portray the Governor’s security efforts as a “total failure.” This characterisation is not only divorced from reality. Still, it represents a desperate attempt by political opponents to rewrite history and undermine a Governor whose growing influence and performance clearly terrify them. It should be on record that in the whole of the North West region, Governor Dauda Lawal has tackled insecurity head-on with verifiable evidence that even those in the opposition have commended him for his huge investment in equipment that will further give security and armed forces an edge over those fueling insecurity in the country.
Since his assumption as Governor of Zamfara State, Dr Lawal has vowed that as the Chief Security Officer of the state, as well as the chief rescuer, an unprecedented commitment to tackling the security challenges that have plagued Zamfara for over a decade is his top priority and he is engaging it with much gusto. Unlike previous administrations, that engaged in shadowy deals with non-state actors, this Governor has chosen the path of transparency, capacity building, and decisive action. He was one of the Governors who openly declared that His administration would not negotiate with bandit rather his administration with fight them to a standstill and ensure they are cleared out.
In a bid to address the issues of insecurity with a well-planned arrival plan, he procured heavy Security Assets that even the Federal Government commended, him for. The recently procured and unveiled 25 units of Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs) and an 80-meter endurance surveillance drone capable of covering 50 kilometres and operating continuously for eight hours. This represents the single largest state-government investment in security hardware in the history of Zamfara State.
The Defence Minister, during the inauguration ceremony, praised what he described as a clear demonstration of the Governor’s commitment to protecting lives and property, making the striking projection that “if we continue like this in the second term, Zamfara will look like Dubai”. This is not praise from a partisan source it is professional acknowledgement from the highest level of Nigeria’s defence establishment that Governor Lawal is doing something right.
Beyond heavy military hardware, the Governor has operationalised the Community Protection Guards in accordance with the law, providing them with 60 brand-new, well-equipped Hilux operational vehicles and specialised motorcycles to ensure swift response and effective first-responder services in difficult terrains. This is complemented by the distribution of 150 Hilux vehicles to mainstream security agencies including the Nigeria Police, DSS, and NSCDC, plus 20 Toyota Buffalo vehicles (both armoured and soft-body).
Perhaps most significantly, Governor Lawal established the Zamfara State Security Trust Fund, which provides a predictable, structured framework for logistical support to security forces. This moves the state away from the era of fragmented, reactive responses to a professional, sustainable security architecture.
When recent attacks occurred including the unfortunate February 19 incident in Anka LGA, Governor Lawal did not go into hiding or issue condolence statements from his office in Gusau. He immediately convened and personally presided over an emergency security meeting with all heads of security agencies at the Government House in Gusau, tasking them to urgently review the current security framework and implement coordinated countermeasures.
The Governor charged security chiefs to maintain “heightened vigilance, strengthened intelligence, and immediate, coordinated countermeasures” to ensure that criminal elements do not gain further ground. He also commiserated with affected communities and assured them of his administration’s full support both logistical and institutional. This is not the behaviour of a detached leader. This is the conduct of a Governor who understands that his primary constitutional responsibility is the protection of lives and property.
The public needs to understand the pedigree of those behind these allegations. The so-called “Zamfara Good Governance Forum” has a well-documented history of partisan attacks against Governor Lawal. A simple review of their previous statements reveals a pattern they have consistently attacked the Governor while remaining conspicuously silent during the administrations that presided over the worst years of banditry in the state. Interestingly, these attacks often coincide with political manoeuvres by the immediate past governor, Bello Matawalle, now Minister of State for Defence. The Zamfara State Government has previously accused Matawalle of using federal security apparatus to intimidate opposition figures in the state. The current criticism fits a familiar pattern, when you cannot defeat a Governor politically or at the ballot box, you attempt to undermine him through sponsored propaganda spreading sheer falsehood to ensure the public turns their back on a performing Governor who is rebuilding the rot the Matawale-led administration caused.
These same critics who now demand a “security roadmap” conveniently ignore that Governor Lawal inherited a state that was virtually a failed entity where farmers could not access their lands, where markets were paralysed, and where government had lost all credibility through failed negotiations and ransom payments to bandits.
Critics also conveniently ignore a fundamental reality Governor Lawal is the only opposition governor in the entire North-West geopolitical zone. Since taking office in 2023, his administration has received no federal intervention funds beyond statutory allocations no special palliatives, and no enhanced security support that flows to states with ruling-party governors. Yet despite this political isolation, he has managed to fund security without resorting to new borrowing, while monthly servicing N1.2 billion in inherited debts from the Bello Matawalle-led administration. This is governance under siege fiscally constrained, politically isolated, yet still delivering.
Governor Dauda Lawal has never claimed that the battle against banditry is easy or that success will come overnight. What he has demonstrated is sincerity of purpose, strategic vision, and relentless commitment. From the Security Trust Fund to community protection guards, from armoured personnel carriers to surveillance drones, these are not the actions of a leader who has failed. The growing influence of Governor Lawal across the North-West clearly frightens those who benefited from the old order of insecurity. When banditry thrives, politicians who negotiate with criminals remain relevant. But when peace is restored through genuine security architecture, such elements become obsolete.
Zamfara State is on the path to lasting peace. The detractors may continue their campaign of falsehood, but the facts on the ground speak louder than their sponsored propaganda. Governor Dauda Lawal remains focused, undeterred, and absolutely committed to restoring full normalcy to every inch of Zamfara State. The people of Zamfara see the progress. The Federal Government acknowledges the investment. And history will remember who truly fought for the state’s liberation.
Signed: GDL Media Force Support Group
March 4, 2026
Abuja, Nigeria
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