Politics
WHY THE OPPOSITION MIGHT WIN THE APC IN 2019
BY DELE MOMODU
*Excerpts from his article ‘Do these guys understand Arithmetic at all?’ on Thisday Backpage
‘….Let me now explain why it may not be so easy for President Buhari to play the Ekiti game nationally. It was said that about 30,000 police officers were drafted to maintain law and order in Ekiti State at the just concluded elections. I leave, for another day, the issues surrounding raging questions about how and where the government found the funding, capacity and willingness to deploy such humongous human and material security forces and equipment to a small State like Ekiti State in the wake of the ravaging Boko Haram menace, the rampaging herdsmen and the riotous militants. One would have thought that a nation afflicted with the security nightmare that insurgency, militancy and terrorism presents would not deem fit to deploy such military and police might for electioneering purposes when these terrible scourges are consuming the land. I suppose, the government considers winning elections and staying in power as much more important than the lives and security of the people they swore to protect when they assumed office. Whatever the reason, we saw what must be the largest possible example of the militarisation of a State since independence. That really is the point. Can this be sustained at the Federal level for the upcoming Presidential and gubernatorial elections? I doubt it. I give my reasons below.
The entire work force of the Nigerian Police is not more than about 300,000 personnel. With 30,000 police deployed to one state alone means about 10% of the work force being deployed to that State. Ekiti is one of the smallest States in the Federation, and there are 36 States and a Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Even if only 15,000 policemen were deployed to Ekiti State and there was a desire to do this at the national level for the Presidential elections, only 20 out of 36 States and the FCT would be covered. This would leave a shortfall of 16 States. If we take the Ekiti State example and deploy 30,000 per State, only 10 States would be covered. This would also mean that for the duration, the entire police force would only be dealing with elections. Open season indeed for crooks, criminals and terrorists! To be frank the question for the young student of arithmetic is where then would the government find such number of police per State to assemble, and possibly manipulate, to achieve pre-determined goals?
Depending on who the candidate of the PDP is, I’m certain, APC will find it difficult to have its past grip on the Northern Region. Contrary to the belief that President Buhari enjoys cult-followership in the North, the reality is that this is not the case and that this aphorism cannot stand any casual scrutiny not to mention rigorous examination. The ill-concealed fact is that the President is perceived to have such a cult following because of the outcome of the 2015 Presidential elections when the President won massively in the Northern part of Nigeria. However, the perception falls flat on its face when you examine the previous elections before 2015 critically. It is clear that the President did well in the North in those past elections, but the truth is that PDP did just as well. On a comparative basis in those previous elections, the President did a lot better this time around. What changed? As simplistic as it may sound, it was the ‘CHANGE’ mantra that made the difference.Significantly, people came together to work for President Buhari to emerge. It was not a solitary effort or lone victory! It was the victory of the people. Hitherto strong PDP enclaves suddenly saw President Buhari as the person who would bring them out of the doldrums and improve their lot. They supported him not because of what he stood for, or his person, but because they were weary and tired of the Jonathan government and its many acts of impunity, financial recklessness and brazen kleptocracy by senior government officials who did not have the welfare of the Nigerian masses at their heart.Indeed, the choice before Nigeria in 2015 was stark! It was either Jonathan or Buhari. And Nigerians did not want Jonathan much more than a case of wanting Buhari. We are at the same threshold now.
In truth, the PDP has traditionally been a Northern Party per se and it still commands substantial support in that area of the country. I keep saying that had President Jonathan been able to garner half the number of those who supported him in the North in the 2011 elections what we are saying today would not have been the story! A different reality would have been upon us. President Jonathan won in 2011 not because the North liked him personally, but because the North wanted to vote with PDP as it has been wont to do for many generations! PDP is beginning to learn its lesson and it is starting to make amends. The Party is no longer flaunting its greatly curtailed power. Its officers and Party faithfuls no longer take anything for granted.They know they must work hard to overcome the prejudices and biases of the people against them. They now appreciate that there is no certainty in politics. That realisation, which the APC appears to have had in 2015, is what the APC of 2018 now seems to be lacking. At the rate members are deserting APC in droves, it is only a matter of time before things fall apart completely.
The PDP will certainly field a Northerner to neutralise whatever might be the Buhari effect. This person would be certain to be heavily backed by other aspirants who may not get the party ticket. It is not likely that Buhari can overwhelmingly take over the North Central and North East this time around. Even in the North West, landslide victor is not assured. Every little whittling of the Buhari numbers from the 2015 elections diminishes his overall tally and makes him a sitting duck.
The promises made by APC would also be under critical scrutiny and those not kept would become subjects of public ridicule and odium. The Southern parts have become nearly no go zones, especially in the South South and South East. The South West is the only part where the President and APC may garner something a bit sizable from the Southern parts with the help of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the South West Governors. That is why Ekiti State suddenly became a do-or-die affair. The desperation was palpable, and victory had to be rammed down the throat of the electorate by all means, by hook or crook, by fire, by force! However, the use of force won’t work this time around, not least because the numbers just don’t add up and there is not enough manpower on the ground to replicate the Ekiti State debacle.
With the margin of victory in Ekiti State so slim and wafer thin, despite the massive security apparatus and personnel deployed to enforce a victory, it appears that the game is up! The numbers game may have finally caught up with the President. Something overtly drastic has to be attempted and done to turn things around positively.
Time will surely tell!’
Dele Momodu. Thisday, July 21 2018
One Voice, One Future: Youth Power for a New Nigeria
By George Omagbemi Sylvester
In the history of nations, there always comes a defining moment when the youth must rise to rescue their future from the grip of complacency, corruption and systemic decay. That moment, for Nigeria, is now. The clarion call is no longer a whisper in the dark, it is a deafening roar echoing across the cities and villages, the streets and campuses and the diaspora. 2027 is not just another election year; it is a generation’s opportunity to reclaim its destiny.
Nigeria, once hailed as the Giant of Africa, is now crawling under the weight of failed leadership, nepotism, economic collapse and insecurity. Over 70% of Nigeria’s population is under the age of 35, this is not a mere statistic; it is a superpower waiting to be activated. Yet, for decades, the same recycled leadership has ruled the country like a private estate, while the youth are sidelined, patronized or pacified with empty slogans.
The Reality: A Nation Betrayed
The facts are brutal and undeniable. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), as of the fourth quarter of 2024, youth unemployment stood at 42.5%, one of the highest rates globally. Thousands of graduates are turned out yearly into a job market that has nothing to offer them. Our educational institutions are underfunded, with lecturers going on endless strikes, while billions of naira are siphoned into the offshore accounts of corrupt politicians.
The World Bank states that over 40% of Nigerians live below the poverty line, with youth bearing the brunt of the economic despair. The same youth are used during elections as pawns, thugs, online propagandists and cheerleaders for politicians who have never and will never fight for their future.
We must say: “Enough is Enough.”
The Power of Youth: A Sleeping Giant
Across Africa, the story is changing. Youth-led movements are challenging old orders and shaking the foundations of outdated governance systems.
In Uganda, Bobi Wine, a musician turned politician, galvanized millions of youth to challenge President Museveni’s long-standing dictatorship. While he didn’t win the election, he ignited a flame of hope. In Sudan, youth were at the center of the 2019 revolution that ousted the 30-year regime of Omar al-Bashir.
As Nelson Mandela once said, “Youth of today are the leaders of tomorrow.” But as things stand in Nigeria, tomorrow never seems to come, unless we seize it.
In 2020, during the #EndSARS movement, we saw a glimpse of what a united, tech savvy and courageous Nigerian youth can achieve. For once, the world stood still as Nigerian youth organized without a central leadership structure, crowd funded, coordinated logistics, engaged in civic education and peacefully demanded justice. Despite the violent crackdown at Lekki Tollgate, the spirit of resistance lives on.
2027: The Youth Mandate
If we are serious about change, then 2027 must be our electoral revolution. Not through violence, but through strategic mobilization, political education, voter registration and active participation in the democratic process.
Let us be clear: the days of apathy are over. As the African proverb goes, “He who is not part of the solution is part of the problem.”
Youth must no longer be mere spectators or online critics; we must become candidates, campaigners, policy drafters, party leaders, election monitors and political donors. Our demographic power must translate into voting power and our voting power must produce accountable leadership.
According to INEC, less than 35% of youth eligible to vote actually did so in the 2023 elections. This is a travesty. With over 90 million Nigerians under 40, if even 50% of us vote smartly and strategically in 2027, we can turn the tide.
Towards a National Youth Alliance
What we need now is not another party, we need a movement, a coalition, a National Youth Alliance that transcends ethnicity, religion and class.
A youth amalgamation that brings together student unions, tech entrepreneurs, young professionals, artisans, artists, athletes, activists and influencers. A youth vanguard that builds structures, fields candidates, protects votes and holds leaders accountable.
We must engage in issue based politics, not stomach infrastructure or tribal loyalties. The youth must demand answers to the questions that matter:
“Why are over 10 million Nigerian children out of school?”
“Why does Nigeria remain the poverty capital of the world, according to the Brookings Institution?”
“Why is our minimum wage ₦70,000 when a bag of rice is over ₦70,000?”
“Why are lawmakers earning ₦30 million monthly while civil servants are owed arrears?”
The late Thomas Sankara, Burkina Faso’s revolutionary leader, once said, “You cannot carry out fundamental change without a certain amount of madness.” We need a bit of that madness, the madness to challenge the status quo, to think differently and to act boldly.
From Hashtags to Ballot Boxes
It is not enough to trend on Twitter or rant on TikTok, social media is powerful, yes I agree, but it is not a substitute for civic engagement; we need to bridge the gap between online activism and offline results.
Youths must start at the grassroots to win local government seats, state assemblies and build a pipeline of leadership that is tested and accountable. The #NotTooYoungToRun Act must not be a symbolic victory; it must be a political weapon in our hands.
Let us support credible youth candidates with our time, resources and platforms. Let us organize town hall meetings, debates and policy hackathons. Let us raise funds, build apps to track campaign promises and expose corrupt leaders.
As Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie said, “When we refuse to engage in politics, we end up being governed by our inferiors.”
Time for Tangible Action
It is time for each Nigerian youth to ask themselves: What am I doing today to secure my tomorrow? Are we registering to vote? Are we sensitizing our peers? Are we demanding better governance at the community level?
We must begin to think long term, beyond 2027. The goal is not just to elect a few fresh faces. The goal is to build a sustainable youth-driven democratic culture where excellence not ethnicity, becomes the metric of leadership.
Let us stop romanticizing suffering. Nigeria has the talent, the resources and the manpower to be great. What we lack is visionary leadership and that is what we must now provide.
Final Words: A Movement, not a Moment
This is a movement, not a moment. It will require sacrifice, unity and strategy. There will be obstacles, betrayals and frustrations. But we must remain focused.
As the Pan-Africanist Kwame Nkrumah declared: “The independence of Ghana is meaningless unless it is linked up with the total liberation of Africa.” Likewise, any victory in 2027 will be meaningless unless it sets off a chain reaction of liberation, innovation and transformation across all levels of Nigerian society.
So, dear patriotic Nigerian youth; RISE! This is your time… Your country needs you more than ever.
Don’t wait for change, be the change.
Together, we can make a difference.
#YouthFor2027 #NationalAllianceNow #SecureTheFuture #NigeriaDeservesBetter
…from military rule to mismanaged democracy, Nigeria’s crisis runs deeper than any one president.
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