Business
President Tinubu’s New 15% Imported Petrol and Diesel Tariff: A Bold Step or a Monopoly Trap?
President Tinubu’s New 15% Imported Petrol and Diesel Tariff: A Bold Step or a Monopoly Trap?
By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by saharaweeklyng.com
“A policy pitched as industrial protection and forex salvation; but does it protect Nigerians or consolidate a refinery monopoly?”
President Bola Tinubu’s recent approval of a 15 per cent ad-valorem import duty on refined petroleum products – petrol (PMS) and diesel (AGO) – was sold to Nigerians as tough, necessary medicine, protect domestic refining, preserve foreign exchange and reward a multi-billion-dollar private investment that finally began producing at scale. The logic is tidy in boardroom slide decks; raise the cost of cheap imports, make locally refined product price-competitive, nurture domestic industry and reduce the chronic hemorrhage of foreign exchange on refined fuels. Though policy is about consequences, not slogans. What the government calls protection risks becoming patronage; what it calls industrial policy could become the legal scaffolding for a monopoly.
The 15% duty was first approved and announced late October 2025 as part of a package of fiscal measures intended to shore up non-oil revenues and to secure the gains of the country’s nascent private refining capacity. The move came after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery (a $20 billion megaproject that began producing refined fuels in 2024) reached commercial throughput, prompting the government to incentivise local supply over imports. Proponents argue that the tariff would close the gap between imported product and locally refined output, prevent undercutting by underpriced foreign loads and protect what the government now frames as strategic industrial security.
On paper the argument has merit. Nigeria, paradoxically one of the world’s major crude oil producers, has for decades exported crude and imported refined products, a distortion that the Dangote refinery promised to end. Shielding nascent domestic refining from predatory pricing can be a legitimate industrial policy. Economies of scale take time; infant industries sometimes need temporary protection to survive; and the nation stands to gain from jobs, downstream activity and a retained share of the petroleum value chain. These are not fanciful claims, they are the underpinnings of industrial strategy everywhere.
The devil is in the detail and the distribution of beneficiaries. From the moment the policy was mooted, alarm bells rang among independent marketers, traders and many civil society groups. Their fear is simple and stark, a 15% import tariff applied in a market where one private refinery already produces a volume close to national demand risks removing competitors from the market, leaving one dominant supplier to set prices, ration supply and extract rents. In short: protection can calcify into monopoly. The concerns were not idle: within weeks of the tariff’s announcement traders warned that importers (many of whom supply the country’s internal distribution network and buffer the system in times of shortages) could be pushed out of the market, reducing supply diversity and increasing vulnerability to shortages and price shocks.
The Dangote Group and others publicly welcomed the policy, arguing it would stabilise supply and prevent substandard imports. Dangote’s spokesperson argued the tariff would not push up pump prices but would protect the industry and the economy. Yet a policy that appears to hand advantage to one private operator (even if unintentionally) invites suspicion. Critics pointed out that the refinery’s special economic arrangements (including Free Trade or EPZ-style privileges in some reporting) could leave independent importers bearing the full cost of the new duty while the privileged refinery remains insulated; a recipe for market capture.
And then the backlash swelled. Fuel marketers, unions, manufacturing bodies and some economists warned of immediate inflationary pass-through, higher transport costs and pressure on households already pushed to the brink by earlier economic reforms. Economist Gbolahan Olojede warned the duty could “reignite inflationary pressures” and cautioned against opaque implementation. Opinion pieces and industry briefs argued that a 15 per cent levy could add close to ₦95–₦100 per litre before storage, transport and margins, a reality with direct consequences for food prices, commuting costs and the competitiveness of Nigerian industry. These are not academic concerns in a country where a marginal uptick in fuel cost ripples quickly through the economy.
Faced with rising public unease and warnings from the trade and logistics end of the value chain (and with the peak holiday demand season approaching) the government stepped back. In mid-November 2025 the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) announced a halt/suspension of the planned tariff implementation, signalling a reversal of the deadline and committing to continued monitoring of supply to prevent disruption. That pause exposed the core political arithmetic, a policy that hits the pump in the short term is politically toxic, even if defensible in the abstract. The suspension also exposed the weak consultative process around the measure; a rushed political fiat had to be walked back after stakeholders made their costs plain.
So where does that leave us? First, industrial protection without clear, time-bound guardrails is dangerous. Tariffs and duties can be used for legitimate industrial nurturing – but only when accompanied by competition safeguards, transparent exemptions, clearly published beneficiary lists, and sunset clauses. Second, the policy exposes Nigeria’s policy-making pathologies: an over-reliance on headline fiscal fixes announced without rigorous stakeholder modelling and without mandated impact assessments. Third, the episode highlights a deeper governance question: when a single private actor commands such strategic weight in a sector, policy needs to be exquisitely careful not to create the impression (or the reality) of state policy tailored to a single firm’s advantage.
There is a third dimension: currency and balance-of-payments logic. Reducing fuel imports would save foreign exchange and strengthen the naira (a true national boon) but only if domestic refineries can reliably meet demand, maintain quality standards and supply at competitive prices. Short-run protection that drives up the pump price without commensurate increase in domestic output simply trades forex savings for inflation pain and social discontent. In that light, the responsible path would have been a staged approach: phased tariffs tied to verified increases in domestic refining output, mandatory wholesale price monitoring, strong anti-hoarding enforcement and legislative guardrails against anti-competitive behaviour.
If we are to be patriotic (if we genuinely want Dangote and any other domestic refiner to succeed) then success must be broad, lawful and visibly pro-competitive. Policy should reward production, not penalise competition. The state must ensure that any tariff is matched by clear rules: fixed windows for imports for small marketers, credit facilities to help domestic distribution adapt and legal anti-monopoly protections enforced by an empowered regulator. Without such mechanisms, the 15% duty risks becoming a short cut to concentrated market power and, eventually, to higher prices for ordinary Nigerians.
President Tinubu’s impulse to protect domestic refining is understandable and defensible in principle. But good intent does not substitute for prudent design. The recent suspension was a salutary reminder: economic management in Nigeria cannot be a monthly toggle between headline reform and crisis control. If this tariff is ever reintroduced, it must be transparent, time-bound, conditional on measurable domestic output increases, and paired with competition safeguards and social mitigation measures for low-income households.
In the end, Nigerians will judge policy by what they pay at the pump and whether they can feed their families. A tariff that secures refining jobs and strengthens the naira while keeping pumps stable would be a courageous, strategic win. A tariff that quietly abets market concentration and hands an overwhelming commercial advantage to a single refinery will be remembered as a policy that traded public interest for private gain. The difference between a bold step and a monopoly trap is not rhetorical (it is procedural, technical and enforceable. It is also, crucially, reversible) if we have the political will to put transparent guardrails in place before it is too late.
RABIU, ELUMELU ALIGN ON CAPITAL, SCALE, AND INDUSTRIAL EXPANSION AS BUA FOODS POSTS N1.77 TRILLION REVENUE, N28 DIVIDEND
Lagos, Nigeria | March 31, 2026
Nigeria’s industrial and financial heavyweights moved to deepen a partnership that has quietly underpinned decades of enterprise growth, as the Founder and Chairman of BUA Group, Abdul Samad Rabiu, hosted the Chairman of United Bank for Africa, Tony Elumelu and his executive management team at BUA Group’s corporate headquarters in Lagos.
More than a visit, the engagement brought together two institutions whose alignment of capital and industrial capacity has consistently translated into scale, execution, and long-term value creation across Nigeria and Africa’s economy.
At the centre of discussions was a renewed push to expand financing frameworks for large-scale manufacturing, deepen support for domestic production, and unlock the next phase of growth across food, infrastructure, and export-oriented value chains.
Rabiu, reflecting on a relationship that spans nearly three decades, traced its evolution from the early days of Standard Trust Bank to its present form as a mature, trusted partnership with UBA.
“Enduring partnerships are not built on transactions, but on conviction,” Rabiu said. “What we have built with UBA and the Nigerian financial industry over the years is a shared understanding of where Nigeria is going and what it will take to get there. That alignment remains as strong today as it was at the beginning.”
Elumelu underscored the strategic importance of the relationship, positioning it within a broader vision of African-led growth.
“Institutions like BUA Group demonstrate what is possible when long-term capital meets disciplined execution,” Elumelu said. “Our role is to continue enabling that scale, supporting enterprises that are not only growing, but reshaping the Nigerian economy.”
The meeting signals a continued convergence between capital and industry at a time when Nigeria’s growth story is increasingly being driven by indigenous scale, operational depth, positive government action, and sustained investment in real sectors.
In a parallel demonstration of that scale, BUA Foods, a BUA company, has released its audited results for the financial year ended December 31, 2025, delivering revenue of N1.77 trillion, a 16 per cent increase from N1.53 trillion in 2024.
The performance reflects sustained demand across its core segments including sugar, flour, pasta, and rice, alongside continued execution of its expansion strategy.
Gross profit rose to N737.26 billion, up from N540.82 billion, while profit after tax surged by 95 per cent to N518.4 billion, compared to N265.99 billion in the prior year.
Earnings per share increased to N28.80, reinforcing the strength of the Company’s earnings profile.
In line with its commitment to shareholder value, the Board has proposed a dividend of N28 per share, representing a 115 per cent increase from N13 in 2024, with a total proposed payout of N504 billion, subject to shareholder approval.
Cost of sales stood at N1.037 trillion, while total assets grew by 27 per cent to N1.39 trillion, reflecting sustained investment across operations and the broader value chain.
Speaking on the results, the Chairman of BUA Foods, Abdul Samad Rabiu said, “Our 2025 performance reflects a business that is not only growing, but scaling with discipline. We are building capacity, deepening local production, and delivering consistent value to shareholders, all while positioning for the future.”
The Managing Director, Engr. Ayodele Abioye, added; “Our strategy remains to expand capacity, strengthen market presence, and optimise the full supply chain. The demand signals are strong, and we are well positioned to sustain this momentum.”
Taken together, the meeting between BUA Group and UBA, alongside BUA Foods’ record performance, points to a broader shift for Nigeria. Nigeria’s growth is increasingly being shaped by institutions that combine scale, capital discipline, and long-term vision and should be seen as not just an expansion but a consolidation of industrial leadership.
Governor Dauda Lawal Set To Unlock Zamfara’s Economic Potentials with Tinubu’s UK State Visit
By Oladapo Sofowora
As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu commences his landmark state visit to the United Kingdom the first by a Nigerian leader in 37 years, the inclusion of Zamfara State Governor Dauda Lawal in the presidential entourage is not a fluke; rather, it signals a strategic opportunity for the northwest state to transform its economic fortunes. Beyond the ceremonial pageantry, this high-level diplomatic engagement holds concrete prospects for Zamfara, particularly in agriculture and solid minerals development, sectors where the state possesses a comparative advantage but has struggled to attract meaningful investment. With Governor Lawal working assiduously to generate more IGR for the state and also position it as an economically advanced hub within the region with the construction of a Cargo Airport, this ushers in an era where the state is about to witness a great turnaround championed by Governor Lawal.
The timing of the bilateral engagement between the UK and Nigeria is significant, as the trade surplus between the two countries has reached a record £8.1 billion annually, and both nations are intensifying collaboration under the UK–Nigeria Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership (ETIP) framework.
According to economic pundits, key sectors targeted for cooperation include trade and investment, energy transition, solid minerals development, and security collaboration – all areas with direct implications for subnational governments like Zamfara. For Governor Lawal, being part of this engagement provides direct access to British investors and development partners that could reshape Zamfara’s economic landscape.
Governor Lawal arrives in London with ambitious development plans to corroborate the budget he presented in December 2024, a ₦861.3 billion budget proposal for the 2025 fiscal year submitted to the Zamfara State House of Assembly, a document he described as “a roadmap for transformation and a declaration that Zamfara will rise stronger.” The budget allocates ₦714.05 billion (83 per cent) to capital expenditure, with sectoral allocations including ₦86 billion for agriculture and significant provisions for infrastructure development. However, these ambitious plans require corresponding revenue streams and investment partnerships to allow them to materialise and reach their full potential.
The governor has been implementing domestic reforms to strengthen the state’s fiscal position. In March 2025, he abolished cash revenue collection across Zamfara, directing all Ministries, Departments, and Agencies to adopt digital systems for revenue collection. His administration set an Internally Generated Revenue target of ₦38 billion to ₦42 billion for 2025, building on 2024’s revenue performance of ₦358.9 billion. With all these impeccable performance indicators, domestic resource mobilisation alone cannot fund the scale of transformation he envisions for the state. The only way to scale up is through Foreign Direct Investment, particularly in agriculture and mining, which represents the missing piece of Zamfara’s development puzzle.
Zamfara State is predominantly agrarian, with the majority of its indigenous population engaged in farming. The state’s favourable climate and vast arable land position it as a potential breadbasket for northern Nigeria. However, the sector remains largely subsistence-based, with limited processing capacity and weak linkages to export markets.
The UK state visit offers opportunities to change this dynamic. British companies have demonstrated growing interest in Nigerian agriculture, as evidenced by Twinings Ovaltine’s £24 million manufacturing facility launch in Lagos its first in Africa creating over 100 direct jobs. Similar investments could be directed toward Zamfara’s agricultural sector, which would be a boost and also create more income for farmers in the production of specific crops with value-addition potential. These include:
Zamfara lies within Nigeria’s cotton belt, but the state lacks ginning and textile processing facilities. Partnerships with British textile companies could establish local cotton processing capacity, capturing value currently lost to exports of raw lint. Groundnut is also a major export commodity from northern Nigeria, but production has declined due to neglect of the sector. British confectionery and food processing companies represent potential off-takers for processed groundnuts.
With growing demand for animal feed and industrial starch, Maize and Sorghum crops offer processing opportunities. British agribusiness firms with expertise in agro-processing could establish milling and processing facilities in Zamfara.
With Sesame Seeds already an export crop, sesame production could benefit from improved processing and certification to meet international standards, particularly for the UK market.
For Zamfara, “opportunities for Nigerian businesses” translates directly to potential agricultural partnerships that could modernise farming practices, establish processing infrastructure, and create export linkages.
Perhaps the most significant potential gains for Zamfara lie in the solid minerals sector. The state is renowned for its gold deposits, which have historically attracted both licensed operators and illegal miners. However, the sector has been characterised by informality, environmental degradation, security challenges, and loss of revenue to the state.
Recent developments at the federal level underscore the growing importance of the minerals sector. The Federal Government recently announced the commencement of operations at a high-purity gold refinery in Lagos – a private-sector initiative led by Kian Smith in partnership with UAE-based Suvarna Royal Gold Trading. For Zamfara, this means advocating for gold processing facilities within the state, not merely exporting overseas, but creating a gold refinery which helps create more jobs within the mining value chain. Governor Lawal’s presence in London provides an opportunity to position Zamfara as a preferred location for one of these gold refineries, particularly with British investment partners.
In a bid to redefine the regulatory framework and investment readiness, Zamfara has been taking steps to create an enabling environment for mineral investment. In February 2025, the Federal Ministry of Solid Mineral Development, in collaboration with the Zamfara State Mineral Resources and Environmental Management Committee (MIREMCO), convened a stakeholders’ meeting with quarry operators, mineral processors, and gold dealers to promote safety and regulatory compliance. The Federal Mines Officer in Zamfara State emphasised that both the federal and Zamfara State governments are determined to promote responsible mining practices that enhance security, safeguard the environment, and ensure that solid mineral resources contribute meaningfully to economic development.
This regulatory clarity is essential for attracting foreign investors. British mining companies and equipment manufacturers require assurance that their investments will operate within a predictable legal framework. The UK–Nigeria ETIP discussions in London provide a platform for Governor Lawal to articulate Zamfara’s investment readiness and regulatory improvements directly to potential partners.
No discussion of Zamfara’s economic potential can ignore the security challenges that have plagued the state. Banditry, kidnapping, and community conflicts have disrupted farming, hindered mining operations, and deterred investment. Governor Lawal’s 2025 budget allocates ₦45 billion to public order and safety, recognising that security is foundational to economic development. The UK visit offers opportunities for security collaboration. Improved security cooperation between Nigeria and the UK could translate to enhanced capacity to protect farming communities and mining sites, creating conditions for agricultural and mineral investments to flourish.
As Governor Lawal engages with British investors and policymakers, he would do well to study how other resource-rich regions have successfully attracted investment while ensuring local benefits. For Zamfara under Governor Lawal, the lesson is clear: attracting investment in extraction must be accompanied by deliberate strategies to build local processing capacity. Simply exporting raw gold or agricultural commodities perpetuates the “resource trap” that has left many African regions impoverished despite abundant natural wealth.
If Governor Lawal’s participation in the UK state visit yields tangible results, Zamfara could experience, in agriculture, British investment in agro-processing facilities, creating jobs for local farmers and capturing value from crops like cotton, groundnuts, and sesame. Technical partnerships to improve farming practices and access to UK markets for certified organic or fair-trade products.
In solid minerals, partnerships with British mining companies for responsible gold extraction, potentially including a gold refinery within Zamfara. Technical assistance for artisanal miners to formalise operations and improve safety. Investment in environmental remediation of degraded mining areas.
For Zamfara State, Governor Lawal’s inclusion in the presidential entourage transforms a diplomatic milestone into a concrete opportunity for subnational economic development. The state’s abundant agricultural land, mineral wealth, and a population eager for economic opportunities hold immense potential. The journey from potential to prosperity is long, but it begins with a single step or in this case, a transatlantic flight carrying Zamfara’s hopes to the corridors of British power and finance.
*Oceangate Engineering Oil & Gas LTD to appeal Federal High ruling over forfeiture assets*
Oceangate Engineering Oil & Gas Limited has said it will appeal to the recent ruling of the Federal High Court ordering the forfeiture of certain assets.
Barr. Nnenna Onyeaso, the Company Secretary said in a statement on Thursday insisting that neither the company nor its leadership was found guilty of any wrongdoing.
Onyeaso said that the firm has described the court’s decision as a civil asset forfeiture order based on suspicion rather than proof, stressing that the judgment did not establish any criminal liability against the organisation.
According to her, the company maintain that it has already directed its legal team to file an appeal, expressing confidence in the judicial process and the outcome of a thorough review of the case.
“To be clear, this ruling is a civil asset forfeiture order with no finding of wrongdoing against Oceangate or its leadership.
“The court’s decision rested on a legal standard of suspicion, not proof, and it is one we intend to pursue fully through the appeals process,” she said in a statement.
The firm secretary also said that Oceangate has reiterated its belief in the rule of law, noting that the appellate system exists to address such outcomes.
She added that the company remained confident that the facts of the case will ultimately affirm its integrity and business practices.
Onyeaso said that the firm also emphasised that its operations remained unaffected, stating that it continues to provide employment for many Nigerians while contributing to the country’s energy sector and broader economy.
“We have always believed in the ability of the judicial process, and that belief has not wavered,” she added.
She noted that Oceangate further expressed appreciation to its employees, partners, and clients for their continued support amid the development, assuring stakeholders of its commitment to transparency and accountability.
The Secretary said that the company reaffirmed its confidence in Nigeria as a viable destination for investment, describing the country as a land of equity, growth, and opportunity.
“We remain committed to the continued growth of our business and the communities we serve as we are optimistic that justice will prevail at the end of the legal process.
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