Business
Why Nigeria’s Banks Still on Shaky Ground with Big Profits, Weak Capital
*Why Nigeria’s Banks Still on Shaky Ground with Big Profits, Weak Capital*
*BY BLAISE UDUNZE*
Despite the fragile 2024 economy grappling with inflation, currency volatility, and weak growth, Nigeria’s banking industry was widely portrayed as successful and strong amid triumphal headlines. The figures appeared to signal strength, resilience, and superior management as the Tier-1 banks such as Access Bank, Zenith Bank, GTBank, UBA, and First Bank of Nigeria, collectively reported profits approaching, and in some cases exceeding, N1 trillion. Surprisingly, a year later, these same banks touted as sound and solid are locked in a frenetic race to the capital markets, issuing rights offers and public placements back-to-back to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s N500 billion recapitalisation thresholds.
The contradiction is glaring. If Nigeria’s biggest banks are so profitable, why are they unable to internally fund their new capital requirements? Why have no fewer than 27 banks tapped the capital market in quick succession despite repeated assurances of balance-sheet robustness? And more fundamentally, what do these record profits actually say about the real health of the banking system?
The recapitalisation directive announced by the CBN in 2024 was ambitious by design. Banks with international licences were required to raise minimum capital to N500 billion by March 2026, while national and regional banks faced lower but still substantial thresholds ranging from N200 billion to N50 billion, respectively. Looking at the policy, it was sold as a modern reform meant to make banks stronger, more resilient in tough times, and better able to support major long-term economic development. In theory, strong banks should welcome such reforms. In practice, the scramble that followed has exposed uncomfortable truths about the structure of bank profitability in Nigeria.
At the heart of the inconsistency is a fundamental misunderstanding often encouraged by the banks themselves between profits and capital. Unknown to many, profitability, no matter how impressive, does not automatically translate into regulatory capital. Primarily, the CBN’s recapitalisation framework actually focuses on money paid in by shareholders when buying shares, fresh equity injected by investors over retained earnings or profits that exist mainly on paper.
This distinction matters because much of the profit surge recorded in 2024 and early 2025 was neither cash-generative nor sustainably repeatable. A significant portion of those headline banks’ profits reported actually came from foreign exchange revaluation gains following the sharp fall of the naira after exchange-rate unification. The industry witnessed that banks’ holding dollar-denominated assets their books showed bigger numbers as their balance sheets swell in naira terms, creating enormous paper profits without a corresponding improvement in underlying operational strength. These gains inflated income statements but did little to strengthen core capital, especially after the CBN barred banks from using FX revaluation gains for dividends or routine operations. In effect, banks looked richer without becoming stronger.
Beyond FX effects, Nigerian banks have increasingly relied on non-interest income fees, charges, and transaction levies to drive profitability. While this model is lucrative, it does not necessarily deepen financial intermediation or expand productive lending. High profits built on customer charges rather than loan growth offer limited support for long-term balance-sheet expansion. They also leave banks vulnerable when macroeconomic conditions shift, as is now happening.
Indeed, the recapitalisation exercise coincides with a turning point in the monetary cycle. The extraordinary conditions that supported bank earnings in 2024 and 2025 are beginning to unwind. Analysts now warn that Nigerian banks are approaching earnings reset, as net interest margins the backbone of traditional banking profitability, come under sustained pressure.
Renaissance Capital, in a January note, projects that major banks including Zenith, GTCO, Access Holdings, and UBA will struggle to deliver earnings growth in 2026 comparable to recent performance.
In a real sense, the CBN is expected to lower interest rates by 400 to 500 basis points because inflation is slowing down, and this means that banks will earn less on loans and government bonds, but they may not be able to quickly lower the interest they pay on deposits or other debts. The cash reserve requirements are still elevated, which does not earn interest; banks can’t easily increase or expand lending investments to make up for lower returns. The implications are significant. Net interest margin, the difference between what banks earn on loans and investments and what they pay on deposits, is poised to contract. Deposit competition is intensifying as lenders fight to shore up liquidity ahead of recapitalisation deadlines, pushing up funding costs. At the same time, yields on treasury bills and bonds, long a safe and lucrative haven for banks are expected to soften in a lower-rate environment. The result is a narrowing profit cushion just as banks are being asked to carry far larger equity bases.
Compounding this challenge is the fading of FX revaluation windfalls. With the naira relatively more stable in early 2026, the non-cash gains that once flattered bank earnings have largely evaporated. What remains is the less glamorous reality of core banking operations: credit risk management, cost efficiency, and genuine loan growth in a sluggish economy. In this new environment, maintaining headline profits will be far harder, even before accounting for the dilutive impact of recapitalisation.
That dilution is another underappreciated consequence of the capital rush. Massive share issuances mean that even if banks manage to sustain absolute profit levels, earnings per share and return on equity are likely to decline. Zenith, Access, UBA, and others are dramatically increasing their share counts. The same earnings pie is now being divided among many more shareholders, making individual returns leaner than during the pre-recapitalisation boom. For investors, the optics of strong profits may soon give way to the reality of weaker per-share performance.
Yet banks have pressed ahead, not only out of regulatory necessity but also strategic calculation.
During this period of recapitalization, investors are interested in the stock market with optimism, especially about bank shares, as banks are raising fresh capital, and this makes it easier to attract investments. This has become a season for the management teams to seize the moment to raise funds at relatively attractive valuations, strengthen ownership positions, and position themselves for post-recapitalisation dominance. In several cases, major shareholders and insiders have increased their stakes, as projected in the media, signalling confidence in long-term prospects even as near-term returns face pressure.
There is also a broader structural ambition at play. Well-capitalised banks can take on larger single obligor exposures, finance infrastructure projects, expand regionally, and compete more credibly with pan-African and global peers. From this perspective, recapitalisation is not merely about compliance but about reshaping the competitive hierarchy of Nigerian banking. What will be witnessed in the industry is that those who succeed will emerge larger, fewer, and more powerful. Those that fail will be forced into consolidation, retreat, or irrelevance.
For the wider economy, the outcome is ambiguous. Stronger banks with deeper capital buffers could improve systemic stability and enhance Nigeria’s ability to fund long-term development. The point is that while merging or consolidating banks may make them safer, it can also harm the market and the economy because it will reduce competition, let a few banks dominate, and encourage them to earn easy money from bonds and fees instead of funding real businesses. The truth be told, injecting more capital into the banks without complementary reforms in credit infrastructure, risk-sharing mechanisms, and fiscal discipline, isn’t enough as the aforementioned reforms are also needed.
The rush as exposed in this period, is that the moment Nigerian banks started raising new capital, the glaring reality behind their reported profits became clearer, that profits weren’t purely from good management, while the financial industry is not as sound and strong as its headline figures. The fact that trillion-naira profit banks must return repeatedly to shareholders for fresh capital is not a sign of excess strength, but of structural imbalance.
With the deadline for banks to raise new capital coming soon, by 31 March 2026, the focus has shifted from just raising N500 billion. N200 billion or N50 billion to think about the future shape and quality of Nigeria’s financial industry, or what it will actually look like afterward. Will recapitalisation mark a turning point toward deeper intermediation, lower dependence on speculative gains, and stronger support for economic growth? Or will it simply reset the numbers while leaving underlying incentives unchanged?
The answer will define the next chapter of Nigerian banking long after the capital market roadshows have ended and the profit headlines have faded.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
Bank
Alpha Morgan Bank Deepens Presence in Abuja with New Branch in Utako
Alpha Morgan Bank Deepens Presence in Abuja with New Branch in Utako
Marking another milestone in its expansion drive, Alpha Morgan Bank has opened a new branch in Utako, Abuja, reinforcing its strategy of building closer institutional ties within key business communities and bringing its financial expertise closer to individuals, and enterprises driving the city’s growth.
The new branch, located at Plot 1121 Obafemi Awolowo Way, Utako, Abuja is strategically positioned to serve individuals, entrepreneurs, and corporate clients within Utako and surrounding districts.
The expansion follows the Bank’s recently concluded Economic Review Webinar held in February 2026, as the bank continues to position as a thought-leader in the financial services industry.
Speaking on the opening, Ade Buraimo, Managing Director of Alpha Morgan Bank, said the move underscores the Bank’s commitment to accessibility and service excellence.
“Proximity matters in banking. As communities grow and commercial activity expands, financial institutions also evolve to meet customers where they are. The Utako Branch allows us to deliver our services to people in that community efficiently while maintaining the high standards our customers expect,”
The Utako location will provide a full suite of retail and corporate banking services, including account opening, deposits, transfers, business banking solutions, and financial advisory support.
Customers and members of the public are invited to visit the new Utako Branch to experience the Bank’s approach to satisfying banking.
Business
Dangote Refinery Prioritises Domestic Supply Amid Global Energy Turbulence
Dangote Refinery Prioritises Domestic Supply Amid Global Energy Turbulence
By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by SaharaWeeklyNG
“Nigeria insulated from international fuel shocks as Dangote Petroleum commits to uninterrupted local delivery.”
Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has reaffirmed its commitment to prioritising the domestic market, pledging to shield Nigerians from the ripple effects of ongoing global energy disruptions. The assurance, delivered in Lagos on 5 March 2026, comes as international refinery operations experience shutdowns or reduced output due to escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, which have sent crude oil and petroleum product prices soaring worldwide.
“Our mandate remains clear: Nigeria’s local market takes precedence. In times of global supply shocks, we will continue to ensure that domestic availability of petrol, diesel, and kerosene is uninterrupted,” said Mr. Folorunsho Alakija, spokesperson for Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The refinery’s declaration arrives amid mounting concerns over fuel scarcity, triggered by export restrictions imposed by major international producers, including China, and shipping delays that have further tightened global petroleum supply chains. Industry analysts have hailed the domestic focus as a critical buffer against volatility that could otherwise push Nigeria into deeper energy insecurity.
Domestic Shield Against Global Disruption
Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest oil processing facility, has leveraged its multi-million-barrel refining capacity to mitigate Nigeria’s historical dependence on imported petroleum products. The company emphasised that prioritising local supply provides a strategic advantage in insulating the nation from international market shocks.
“Our refinery’s scale allows Nigeria to withstand short-term external disruptions. We have the infrastructure and capacity to meet local demand even when global supply chains falter,” explained Mr. Chijioke Okonkwo, Operations Director at Dangote Refinery.
The proactive approach is particularly significant as several international refineries have either reduced throughput or temporarily halted operations, causing a global scarcity of refined products. Experts warn that without domestic cushioning, fuel prices in Nigeria could have surged sharply, exacerbating inflationary pressures in a fragile economy.
Managing Costs While Prioritising Supply
In response to rising procurement costs for crude oil amid the international crisis, Dangote Refinery introduced a modest ₦100 per litre increase in the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), absorbing roughly 20 percent of the cost escalation to lessen the impact on consumers.
“We are balancing operational sustainability with affordability. While global prices have risen sharply, we have chosen to absorb a significant portion to protect Nigerian households and businesses,” noted Mr. Emmanuel Adeyemi, Chief Finance Officer.
This pricing strategy underscores the refinery’s dual focus: ensuring uninterrupted supply while cushioning the public from abrupt spikes that could destabilize economic activity. Industry observers have lauded the approach as pragmatic, considering the volatility in international oil markets.
Strategic Distribution Initiatives
Beyond refining, Dangote Petroleum has initiated Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) powered trucks to enhance nationwide distribution efficiency. The initiative seeks to reduce logistics costs and carbon emissions while ensuring a more reliable delivery network to petrol stations across urban and rural areas.
“Logistics is a critical part of the energy supply chain. By deploying CNG-powered trucks, we reduce dependency on expensive diesel, lower delivery costs, and improve supply reliability across the country,” explained Ms. Funke Adedoyin, Head of Logistics Operations.
This strategic move reflects a broader commitment to modernising Nigeria’s petroleum distribution infrastructure, reducing bottlenecks that have historically contributed to scarcity at retail outlets.
Implications for National Energy Security
Nigeria has historically struggled with fuel imports to meet domestic demand, making the country vulnerable to international market fluctuations. Dangote Refinery’s prioritisation of local supply mitigates this vulnerability by leveraging home-grown refining capacity, which allows for timely access to petroleum products and less reliance on foreign shipments.
“With Dangote Refinery leading local prioritisation, Nigeria is less exposed to global fuel shocks. The country is moving towards self-reliance in petroleum product supply,” commented Dr. Halima Suleiman, energy sector analyst.
Experts note that sustained operations at the refinery not only enhance energy security but also preserve foreign exchange, reduce import bills, and stabilise domestic market prices.
Corporate Social Responsibility and Market Stability
The refinery’s commitment is part of a broader corporate responsibility framework. Dangote Petroleum continues to engage with government agencies and regulatory bodies, ensuring that domestic supply is coordinated with Nigeria’s Petroleum Product Pricing and Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) to prevent panic buying and market distortions.
“We are in constant consultation with the government to ensure that our supply strategies align with national economic priorities,” said Mr. Alakija.
Such collaboration helps avert artificial shortages, stabilises pump prices, and maintains confidence in the domestic fuel market. Analysts argue that this approach exemplifies how private sector capabilities can complement governmental policies to enhance national resilience.
Navigating Global Uncertainties
The refinery operates in a complex global environment, where geopolitical crises, shipping constraints, and crude oil volatility can trigger disruptions. Dangote Petroleum’s domestic-first approach positions Nigeria to weather such crises more effectively.
“Global uncertainties are unavoidable, but our infrastructure and strategy ensure that Nigerians remain insulated from immediate shocks,” said Mr. Okonkwo.
This emphasis on resilience aligns with global best practices, where national refining capacity is leveraged to protect local markets from international supply disruptions.
Stakeholder Reactions
The government, civil society, and industry stakeholders have welcomed Dangote Petroleum’s strategy. Officials from the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources noted that prioritising local supply aligns with Nigeria’s energy security policies and reduces the burden of foreign exchange expenditures on crude imports.
“Dangote Refinery is demonstrating leadership. Its domestic prioritisation ensures that the Nigerian economy remains insulated during turbulent global markets,” said Dr. Tunji Olumide, Special Adviser on Energy.
Consumers have also expressed cautious optimism. Retail operators and commuters reported steadier fuel availability in Lagos and other cities, though concerns remain about sustained pricing and distribution efficiency.
The Road Ahead
While Dangote Refinery’s strategy provides immediate relief, experts argue that long-term stability requires further investments in alternative energy, diversified refining infrastructure, and strategic reserves. This ensures that Nigeria can withstand global shocks without relying excessively on imports or temporary supply adjustments.
“Short-term measures like prioritising local supply are critical, but long-term energy security demands diversification, renewables adoption, and consistent policy implementation,” said Dr. Suleiman.
The refinery is exploring additional initiatives, including expanding storage capacity, upgrading pipeline networks, and adopting technology-driven monitoring systems to ensure supply continuity across the country.
Final Take
By prioritising domestic fuel supply amid global market turbulence, Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has demonstrated its role as a stabilising force in Nigeria’s energy sector. Through strategic logistics, modest pricing adjustments, and engagement with government regulators, the refinery is insulating the nation from international shocks while maintaining operational sustainability.
“Our responsibility extends beyond profitability; it’s about ensuring Nigerians have reliable access to essential fuel. We take that mandate seriously,” concluded Mr. Adeyemi.
The refinery’s actions offer a blueprint for how large-scale domestic capacity can protect national economies in times of global energy instability, underscoring the critical intersection of private sector resilience, public policy, and national energy security.
Business
Time is of the essence,” the group stressed. “Every delay compounds the hardship and weakens faith in the system.”
Trapped Funds, Fading Trust: Heritage Bank Depositors Demand Urgent CBN Bailout
By Ifeoma Ikem
Nearly two years after the collapse of Heritage Bank, thousands of depositors say they are still living with the financial and emotional aftershocks of a liquidation they insist was never meant to end this way. What began as regulatory reassurances has, in their view, spiralled into prolonged uncertainty, partial payments, and mounting hardship, thus prompting a fresh and urgent appeal to President Bola Tinubu and the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olayemi Cardoso, to intervene decisively.
In a strongly-worded statement issued in Lagos, the depositors framed their demand not simply as a financial request but as a test of the country’s commitment to safeguarding public trust in its banking system. They are asking the Central Bank to provide immediate bailout funds to the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) to enable full reimbursement of all affected customers, arguing that the pace of recovery so far has been painfully slow and grossly inadequate.
According to them, while insured deposits up to ₦5 million were covered under statutory provisions, payments beyond that threshold (known as liquidation dividends) have amounted to just 14.2 percent of their total balances in nearly two years. The first tranche of 9.2 percent was paid in April 2024. A second installment of 5 percent followed recently. For many, that has been the extent of relief.
At this rate, they argue, the mathematics simply does not inspire confidence.
“These are not abstract figures,” one depositor said. “They represent school fees, retirement savings, working capital for small businesses, cooperative funds, and life savings built over decades.” Among those affected, they say, are civil servants, retirees, entrepreneurs, and families whose livelihoods have been upended by the prolonged wait.
What deepens their frustration, they contend, is the memory of official assurances given before the bank’s collapse. When signs of distress first emerged, depositors recall that the Central Bank publicly and privately reassured customers that their funds were safe and that the institution remained sound. Those assurances, they say, influenced their decision not to withdraw their savings at the time.
The eventual liquidation therefore came as a shock, both financially and psychologically. “We trusted the regulator,” the group noted. “Between the Central Bank and the NDIC, we were told our funds would be repaid 100 percent.”
It is that promise, they argue, that must now be honored in full.
While acknowledging that the NDIC has begun verification and payment processes, the depositors insist that the agency lacks the financial capacity to conclude the exercise within a reasonable timeframe. They point to the scale of total deposits — estimated at about ₦650 billion — and the fact that only around ₦54 billion has been paid out in 18 months. In their view, that ratio raises serious questions about whether the liquidation process, left solely to asset recovery, can realistically guarantee timely reimbursement.
The group also referenced previous instances in which the Central Bank stepped in to stabilize distressed institutions, arguing that regulatory precedent supports intervention. They cited the reported ₦460 billion facility linked to Heritage Bank before its collapse, as well as substantial financial support extended to other banks to facilitate mergers or recapitalization. In one example, they noted, a ₦700 billion support package reportedly enabled a struggling bank to qualify for a merger, with favorable repayment terms that included a five-year moratorium and extended repayment window at below-market interest rates. They also referenced regulatory intervention in Keystone Bank as evidence that decisive action is possible when systemic stability is at stake.
Given that history, they say, it is difficult to understand why a direct bailout to protect depositors is not being prioritized.
Beyond financial restitution, the depositors are also calling for accountability. They demanded a thorough investigation and immediate prosecution of any individuals or entities found culpable of asset diversion, mismanagement, or actions that may have contributed to the bank’s collapse. To them, justice is as important as compensation.
They argue that without visible consequences, public confidence in the banking system could erode further. “The integrity of the financial sector rests not only on liquidity, but on accountability,” one stakeholder said. “If people believe that funds can disappear without consequences, trust collapses.”
The broader concern, they warn, is systemic. Nigeria has not witnessed a full commercial bank liquidation in over two decades, as troubled institutions have typically been resolved through mergers, acquisitions, or regulatory restructuring. Many depositors therefore assumed that a similar pathway would apply in this case. Instead, they say, liquidation has exposed gaps in depositor protection mechanisms.
They also question the broader insurance framework, noting that banks have paid premiums to the NDIC for years precisely to safeguard depositors. If recovery remains this limited, they argue, the protective purpose of that insurance scheme comes under scrutiny.
For small business owners, the implications have been severe. Some report shutting down operations due to frozen capital. Others speak of properties sold under distress or retirement plans abruptly altered. The social cost, they insist, is real and growing.
At the heart of their appeal is a request for clarity. They want a clear, binding timeline for completion of the liquidation process and a transparent roadmap outlining how and when full repayment will occur. Without that, they fear that partial dividends will continue indefinitely, eroded by inflation and the time value of money.
They have also urged the Presidency and the National Assembly to step in, arguing that the matter transcends a single bank and touches on Nigeria’s financial credibility before the global community. Prolonged uncertainty, they warn, risks signaling regulatory inconsistency at a time when the country seeks to attract investment and deepen financial inclusion.
For the depositors, the issue is no longer simply about numbers on a ledger. It is about confidence in regulators, in institutions, and in the promise that money kept within the formal banking system is secure.
They believe the Central Bank must now assume full responsibility for resolving what they describe as a crisis of trust. Whether through direct financial support to the NDIC, accelerated asset recovery, or a hybrid intervention model, they insist that swift action is essential.
“Time is of the essence,” the group stressed. “Every delay compounds the hardship and weakens faith in the system.”
In a nation striving to strengthen its financial architecture and restore economic stability, the resolution of the Heritage Bank liquidation may well become a defining test — not only of regulatory capacity, but of the enduring covenant between citizens and the institutions entrusted with their savings.
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