Politics
WHY THE OPPOSITION MIGHT WIN THE APC IN 2019
BY DELE MOMODU
*Excerpts from his article ‘Do these guys understand Arithmetic at all?’ on Thisday Backpage
‘….Let me now explain why it may not be so easy for President Buhari to play the Ekiti game nationally. It was said that about 30,000 police officers were drafted to maintain law and order in Ekiti State at the just concluded elections. I leave, for another day, the issues surrounding raging questions about how and where the government found the funding, capacity and willingness to deploy such humongous human and material security forces and equipment to a small State like Ekiti State in the wake of the ravaging Boko Haram menace, the rampaging herdsmen and the riotous militants. One would have thought that a nation afflicted with the security nightmare that insurgency, militancy and terrorism presents would not deem fit to deploy such military and police might for electioneering purposes when these terrible scourges are consuming the land. I suppose, the government considers winning elections and staying in power as much more important than the lives and security of the people they swore to protect when they assumed office. Whatever the reason, we saw what must be the largest possible example of the militarisation of a State since independence. That really is the point. Can this be sustained at the Federal level for the upcoming Presidential and gubernatorial elections? I doubt it. I give my reasons below.
The entire work force of the Nigerian Police is not more than about 300,000 personnel. With 30,000 police deployed to one state alone means about 10% of the work force being deployed to that State. Ekiti is one of the smallest States in the Federation, and there are 36 States and a Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Even if only 15,000 policemen were deployed to Ekiti State and there was a desire to do this at the national level for the Presidential elections, only 20 out of 36 States and the FCT would be covered. This would leave a shortfall of 16 States. If we take the Ekiti State example and deploy 30,000 per State, only 10 States would be covered. This would also mean that for the duration, the entire police force would only be dealing with elections. Open season indeed for crooks, criminals and terrorists! To be frank the question for the young student of arithmetic is where then would the government find such number of police per State to assemble, and possibly manipulate, to achieve pre-determined goals?
Depending on who the candidate of the PDP is, I’m certain, APC will find it difficult to have its past grip on the Northern Region. Contrary to the belief that President Buhari enjoys cult-followership in the North, the reality is that this is not the case and that this aphorism cannot stand any casual scrutiny not to mention rigorous examination. The ill-concealed fact is that the President is perceived to have such a cult following because of the outcome of the 2015 Presidential elections when the President won massively in the Northern part of Nigeria. However, the perception falls flat on its face when you examine the previous elections before 2015 critically. It is clear that the President did well in the North in those past elections, but the truth is that PDP did just as well. On a comparative basis in those previous elections, the President did a lot better this time around. What changed? As simplistic as it may sound, it was the ‘CHANGE’ mantra that made the difference.Significantly, people came together to work for President Buhari to emerge. It was not a solitary effort or lone victory! It was the victory of the people. Hitherto strong PDP enclaves suddenly saw President Buhari as the person who would bring them out of the doldrums and improve their lot. They supported him not because of what he stood for, or his person, but because they were weary and tired of the Jonathan government and its many acts of impunity, financial recklessness and brazen kleptocracy by senior government officials who did not have the welfare of the Nigerian masses at their heart.Indeed, the choice before Nigeria in 2015 was stark! It was either Jonathan or Buhari. And Nigerians did not want Jonathan much more than a case of wanting Buhari. We are at the same threshold now.
In truth, the PDP has traditionally been a Northern Party per se and it still commands substantial support in that area of the country. I keep saying that had President Jonathan been able to garner half the number of those who supported him in the North in the 2011 elections what we are saying today would not have been the story! A different reality would have been upon us. President Jonathan won in 2011 not because the North liked him personally, but because the North wanted to vote with PDP as it has been wont to do for many generations! PDP is beginning to learn its lesson and it is starting to make amends. The Party is no longer flaunting its greatly curtailed power. Its officers and Party faithfuls no longer take anything for granted.They know they must work hard to overcome the prejudices and biases of the people against them. They now appreciate that there is no certainty in politics. That realisation, which the APC appears to have had in 2015, is what the APC of 2018 now seems to be lacking. At the rate members are deserting APC in droves, it is only a matter of time before things fall apart completely.
The PDP will certainly field a Northerner to neutralise whatever might be the Buhari effect. This person would be certain to be heavily backed by other aspirants who may not get the party ticket. It is not likely that Buhari can overwhelmingly take over the North Central and North East this time around. Even in the North West, landslide victor is not assured. Every little whittling of the Buhari numbers from the 2015 elections diminishes his overall tally and makes him a sitting duck.
The promises made by APC would also be under critical scrutiny and those not kept would become subjects of public ridicule and odium. The Southern parts have become nearly no go zones, especially in the South South and South East. The South West is the only part where the President and APC may garner something a bit sizable from the Southern parts with the help of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the South West Governors. That is why Ekiti State suddenly became a do-or-die affair. The desperation was palpable, and victory had to be rammed down the throat of the electorate by all means, by hook or crook, by fire, by force! However, the use of force won’t work this time around, not least because the numbers just don’t add up and there is not enough manpower on the ground to replicate the Ekiti State debacle.
With the margin of victory in Ekiti State so slim and wafer thin, despite the massive security apparatus and personnel deployed to enforce a victory, it appears that the game is up! The numbers game may have finally caught up with the President. Something overtly drastic has to be attempted and done to turn things around positively.
Time will surely tell!’
Dele Momodu. Thisday, July 21 2018
Politics
Pro-Tinubu Group Demands Sack of Badaru, Other Ministers Who Lost Polling Units in Bye-Elections
Pro-Tinubu Group Demands Sack of Badaru, Other Ministers Who Lost Polling Units in Bye-Elections
The Asiwaju Network has called on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to immediately disengage underperforming ministers who failed to deliver their polling units and wards during the just-concluded bye-elections.
The group also urged a cabinet reshuffle to inject fresh energy and ensure that only those who can add political and governance value remain in the Federal Executive Council.
In a statement issued on Monday in Abuja and signed by its president, Alhaji Musa Ibrahim Dandoka, the Asiwaju Network said the results of the elections were a litmus test that exposed the political weaknesses of some ministers entrusted with strategic national assignments.
At Babura Kofar Arewa Primary School in Jigawa State, where the Minister of Defence, Alhaji Muhammad Badaru Abubakar, cast his vote, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) scored 308 votes to defeat the All Progressives Congress (APC), which managed only 112.
Badaru, a former governor of Jigawa and APC chieftain, left the venue without addressing journalists after casting his vote amid heavy security presence.
Dandoka said it was troubling that, despite his high office, the Defence Minister could not secure victory in his polling unit.
He argued that such political setbacks undermine the strength of the APC and the credibility of President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope government.
“This defeat is both embarrassing and unacceptable. A minister who cannot win his polling unit cannot claim to possess the political capital required to defend the APC or promote the President’s Renewed Hope Agenda. President Tinubu must act quickly to weed out weak links in his cabinet and replace them with men and women who have proven grassroots capacity,” Dandoka stated.
The group noted that Badaru was not alone in this failure, stressing that another minister from Jigawa and one from Enugu State also lost their wards and polling units.
According to the group, these developments point to a worrying trend of disconnect between certain ministers and their political bases.
“Ministers are not merely technocrats. They are political leaders of the party in their states and zones. If they cannot hold their homes together, then they do not deserve to hold on to strategic national offices. The bye-elections have sent a clear message, and it is that some ministers have lost relevance and electoral value,” the statement reads.
The Asiwaju Network maintained that the APC’s strength lies in grassroots mobilisation, and any minister unable to inspire loyalty within his immediate constituency is a liability.
Dandoka emphasised that President Tinubu’s success in governance must be matched with political consolidation, which requires capable and electorally grounded cabinet members.
“President Tinubu has been bold with tough decisions on subsidy reforms, the economy, and security. Nigerians are beginning to see the fruits of those reforms. But he must also be bold enough to reshuffle his cabinet. A government of results cannot afford ministers who are passengers. The President needs proven drivers of the Renewed Hope vision,” Dandoka said.
The group also commended loyal APC members and supporters who defied intimidation and attempts at rigging in Jigawa and Enugu, saying their resilience was the true strength of the ruling party.
“These members stood firm when those at the top failed to inspire confidence. They turned out in their numbers to defend the APC’s relevance even when some of their supposed leaders abandoned them. These grassroots soldiers of democracy must never be taken for granted,” Dandoka added.
The Asiwaju Network further urged President Tinubu to take the bye-election results as a warning, cautioning that retaining non-performing ministers would embolden the opposition and demoralise party loyalists.
“The message from Jigawa and Enugu is clear: the APC cannot continue to reward failure. A minister who cannot secure a few streets in his ward has no business in the Federal Executive Council. Mr President must urgently rejig his cabinet or risk carrying dead weight into future electoral contests,” the coalition warned.
Reaffirming the group’s loyalty to Tinubu’s leadership, Dandoka said Nigerians expect a government that rewards competence and accountability, not excuses and political failures.
“President Tinubu has the people’s mandate. He must not allow weak ministers to drag down his vision. A decisive cabinet reshuffle now will send a strong signal that the Renewed Hope government is serious about performance, delivery, and results,” he declared.
Customs at the Crossroads: When Lawmakers Look Away and the Executive Looks Aside
By Dr. Bolaji O. Akinyemi
In a democracy, legislative oversight is the scalpel that cuts through deceit, inefficiency, and corruption in public institutions. It is the people’s last institutional shield against abuse of power. But what happens when that shield becomes a shelter for the very rot it is meant to expose? And what happens when the Executive arm, whose duty is to supervise its agencies, pretends not to see?
The unfolding drama between the National Assembly and the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) reveals more than a policy dispute. It exposes a dangerous triangle of confusion, complicity, and economic sabotage. At stake is not only the rule of law but the survival of an economy already gasping under inflation, a weak naira, and suffocating costs of living.
The House Talks Tough
In June 2025, Nigerians saw a glimpse of legislative courage when the House of Representatives Committee thundered at Customs:
> “Nigerian Customs Service, by June 30, must not collect CISS again. You are to collect only your 4% FOB assigned by the President. Even the 7% cost of collection you currently take is illegal—it was an executive fiat of the military, not democratic law. Any attempt to continue these illegal collections will be challenged in court. The ‘I’s have it.”
The voice was firm, the ruling decisive. Nigerians expected a turning point.
But the righteous thunder of the House was quickly muffled by the Senate’s softer tone, which suggested not the enforcement of the law but a readiness to bend it.
Senate: Oversight or Escape Route?
At a Senate Customs Committee session, Senator Ade Fadahunsi admitted openly that Customs has been operating illegally since June 2023. Yet rather than demand an end to illegality, he extended a lifeline to Comptroller-General Bashir Adeniyi:
> “If we come back to the same source… the two houses will sit together and see to your amendment so you will not be walking on a tight rope.”
But should Adeniyi be handed a loose rope while Nigeria’s economy hangs by a thread?
Instead of accountability, the Senate Customs Committee floated adjustments that would make life easier for Customs. The nation was given hints about fraudulent insurance and freight data, but instead of sanctions, what we saw was a search for escape routes. This is not oversight—it is overlook.
Smuggling and Excuses
The Senate Committee also lamented cross-border smuggling—Nigerian goods like cement flooding Cotonou, Togo, and Ghana at cheaper prices than in Nigeria. Senator Fadahunsi blamed the Central Bank’s 2% value deposit for encouraging the practice.
But where are the Senate’s enforcement actions—compliance checks, stiffer sanctions, cross-border coordination? None. The result is predictable: smugglers prosper, reserves bleed, and ordinary Nigerians pay more for less.
A Bloated Customs Budget
The Service’s 2024 capital allocation ballooned to ₦1.1 trillion from ₦706 billion. Instead of channeling these resources into modern trade systems, Customs is expanding empires of frivolity—such as proposing a new university despite already having training facilities in Gwagwalada and Ikeja that could easily be upgraded.
Oversight is not an afterthought; it is the legislature’s constitutional duty. To see waste and illegality and yet propose amendments that would legalise them is to turn oversight into overlook.
Customs has about 16,000 staff, yet many remain poorly trained. Rather than prioritise capacity building, the Service is busy building staff estates in odd locations. How does Modakeke—an inland town with no border post—end up with massive Customs housing projects, while strategic border towns like Badagry, Idiroko, and Saki remain neglected? Is Bashir Adeniyi Comptroller-General of Customs—or Minister of Housing?
The 4% FOB Levy: A Policy Blunder
The central controversy is the Federal Government’s plan to replace existing port charges with a new 4% Free-On-Board (FOB) levy on imports.
Nigeria is an import-dependent nation. This levy will instantly hike the costs of cars, spare parts, machinery, and raw materials—crippling industries and punishing consumers.
Already, the consequences are biting:
A 2006 Toyota Corolla now costs between ₦6–9 million.
Clearing agents who once paid ₦215,000 for license renewal must now cough out ₦4 million.
New freight forwarder licenses have jumped from ₦600,000 to ₦10 million.
Customs claims the revenue is needed for its modernisation programme, anchored on a software platform called B’Odogwu. But stakeholders describe this so-called “Odogwu” as epileptic—if not comatose. Why commit trillions to a ghost programme that will be obsolete by January 2026, when the Nigerian Revenue Service is set to take over Customs collections?
Industry Raises the Alarm
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has warned that the levy will worsen inflation, disrupt supply chains, and hurt productivity.
Lucky Amiwero, President of the National Council of Managing Directors of Licensed Customs Agents, calls the levy “economically dangerous.” His reasoning is straightforward:
The 4% FOB levy is much higher than the 1% CISS it replaces.
Peer countries like Ghana maintain just 1%.
The new levy will fuel inflation, raise the landed costs of goods, and destabilise the naira.
He also revealed that the Customs Modernisation Act, which introduced the levy, was passed without Senate scrutiny or meaningful stakeholder consultation. He estimates that the levy could add ₦3–4 trillion annually to freight costs—burdens that will be transferred directly to consumers.
Who Is Behind the “Odogwu” Masquerade?
The haste to enforce this levy, despite its looming redundancy, raises disturbing questions. Who benefits from the “Odogwu” project draining trillions? Why the rush, when NRS will take over collections in a few months?
This masquerade must be unmasked.
The Price Nigerians Pay
For ordinary Nigerians, this policy translates into one thing: higher prices. Cars, manufactured goods, and spare parts are spiraling beyond reach. A nation struggling with inflation, unemployment, and a weak currency cannot afford such reckless experiments.
So, while the Senate looks away, the Executive cannot look aside.
The Executive Cannot Escape Blame.
It is easy to focus on the failings of the legislature. But we must not forget: the Customs Service is an agency of the Federal Ministry of Finance, under the direct supervision of the Honourable Minister of Finance, Mr. Wale Edun.
If Customs is breaking the law, wasting resources, or implementing anti-people policies, the buck stops at the Executive’s table. The Minister of Finance is Chairman of the Customs Board. To fold his hands while the Service operates in illegality is to abdicate responsibility.
History gives us a model. In 1999, the Minister of State for Finance, Nenadi Usman, was specifically assigned to supervise Customs and report directly to the President. Meanwhile, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala focused on broader fiscal and economic policies. That division of responsibility improved accountability. Today, the absence of such an arrangement is feeding impunity.
President Tinubu and his Finance Minister must act decisively. Oversight without executive will is a dead letter.
A Call to Accountability
The truth is stark:
Customs has been operating illegally since June 2023 to the Senate’s own confession.
The 4% FOB levy will deepen inflation and worsen economic hardship.
The Ministry of Finance bears ultimate responsibility for Customs’ conduct.
Until importing and consuming, Nigerians demand accountability—of the Comptroller-General, the Senate, and above all, the Finance Ministry—this bleeding will continue.
Nigerians deserve better. They deserve a Customs Service that serves the nation, not a privileged few. They deserve a House that enforces its resolutions, not one that grandstands. They deserve a Senate that upholds the law, not one that bends it. And above all, they deserve an Executive that does not look aside while illegality thrives under its ministry.
Only public pressure can end this indulgence. If Nigerians keep silent, we will keep paying the price—in higher costs, weaker currency, and a sabotaged economy.
Citizens’ Charge: Silence is Not an Option
Fellow Nigerians, the Customs crisis is not a drama for the pages of newspapers—it is a burden on our pockets, our businesses, and our children’s future. Every illegal levy is a tax on the poor. Every abandoned oversight is an open invitation to corruption. Every silence from the Executive is an approval of impunity.
We cannot afford to fold our arms. Democracy gives us the power of voice, the duty of vigilance, and the right to demand accountability. Let us demand that:
The Senate and House of Representatives stop playing good cop, bad cop, and enforce the law without compromise.
The Ministry of Finance takes full responsibility for the Customs Service, supervising it in the interest of Nigerians, not vested interests.
The President intervenes now, before the Service crosses the dangerous line of turning illegality into policy.
History will not forgive a people who suffered in silence when their economy was bled by recklessness. Silence is complicity. The time to speak, to write, to petition, to protest, and to demand is now.
Customs must serve Nigeria—not sabotage it.
Dr. Bolaji O. Akinyemi is an Apostle and Nation Builder. He’s also the President of Voice of His Word Ministries and Convener Apostolic Round Table. BoT Chairman, Project Victory Call Initiative, AKA PVC Naija. He is a strategic Communicator and the CEO, Masterbuilder Communications.
Email:[email protected]
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Aare Adetola Emmanuel King Congratulates Hon. Adesola Ayoola-Elegbeji on Election Victory
The Chairman/CEO of Adron Group, Sir Aare Adetola Emmanuel King KOF, has congratulated Hon. Adesola Ayoola-Elegbeji on her resounding victory in the just-concluded by-election for the Remo Federal Constituency seat in the House of Representatives.
In a goodwill message issued by him, he described the victory as “a historic moment for the Remo people, coming at a time when the constituency yearns for a leader with vision, courage, and genuine commitment to service.”
He noted that the outcome of the election was an attestation to the trust and confidence reposed in Hon. Ayoola-Elegbeji by the people, adding that her sterling qualities, integrity, accessibility, and compassion for the grassroots had endeared her to the electorate.
“The overwhelming support you garnered at the polls is proof that you are the right voice at the right time to carry the aspirations of Remo to the national stage,” he stated.
While acknowledging that the by-election followed the painful demise of the late Hon. Adewunmi Oriyomi Onanuga (Ijaya), Aare Adetola Emmanuel King said Hon. Ayoola-Elegbeji’s emergence symbolizes the continuity of purposeful representation. He expressed confidence that she would not only sustain the legacy of her predecessor but also surpass it with new energy, innovative ideas, and progressive leadership.
The Adron Group Chairman further prayed for divine wisdom, strength, and compassion for the Member-Elect as she assumes office, expressing confidence that her tenure will usher in meaningful development, economic empowerment, and greater opportunities for the people of Remo Federal Constituency.
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