Politics
Governorship Election: Kebbi Looks Good For PDP—Dr Abubakar Alkalii
Governorship Election: Kebbi Looks Good For PDP—Dr Abubakar Alkali
After the nationwide Presidential and National Assembly elections, attention is now shifted to the statewide Guber and state houses of assembly elections which promises to be another possible switch from the conventional nay traditional pattern of elections in Nigeria. There is the likelihood of surprises in some states, particularly in the South-East and the South-South including some parts of the middle belt owing to the Obi tsunami sweeping across mainly the southern and North central parts of the country.
The two main political parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may not have a smooth sail in some of the states under their control owing largely to the tsunami of the Labour Party in the SE and SS and parts of the North-central. From all indications, there is largely going to be a change of guard party-wise in many states including the North West and North -East although the power of incumbency will still play out in some states.
This Saturday, Gubernatorial elections are expected to hold in 28 out of the 36 states.
The states where the Guber elections will hold this Saturday are as follows:
Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara.
17 state governors have completed their second terms and will not be seeking re-election.
These states are Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Kano, Benue, Niger, Plateau, Taraba, Cross Rivers, Rivers, Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia, Ekiti, Delta.
The 11 states where Governors are seeking re-election: Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Zamfara, Kwara, Nassarawa, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo.
The 8 ‘off-season’ states where Guber elections will not be this Saturday are:
Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Osun, and Ondo
Likely outcome
Below is a state-by-state analysis of the likely outcome of the Guber elections this Saturday.
ABIA– The Labour Party is almost certainly winning this state by a wide margin. This will be part of the Obi tsunami sweeping across the SE and SS geopolitical zone and part of the North-central. The ruling PDP in the state will come a distant second.
ADAMAWA-The APC is fielding the first female Guber candidate in the state Sen Binani. Although she had made history, Sen Aishatu Binani will not be able to overcome the ‘men’ in the PDP. The PDP will win Adamawa but Sen Binani will almost certainly be involved in the incoming Tinubu administration as a minister and member of the federal executive council or something close to that. The PDP will retain this state by a reasonable margin.
AKWA IBOM– Despite the Obi tsunami sweeping across the SE and SS, the PDP will retain this state but Labour will come a close second.
BAUCHI– The PDP will win this state albeit it faces stiff opposition from the APC. If the APC can strike a realistic deal with the NNPP, it may make a better showing but the PDP will win it regardless.
BENUE– The Obedient Labour Party is on the rise in this state but the APC will win it. The APC has the advantage of fielding a very popular and charismatic candidate Rev Fr Hyacinth Alia. The influence of the kingmaker Sen George Akume will come into play here. However, if the PDP can negotiate a workable alliance with Labour, it may cause more problems for the APC.
BORNO: This is a classical APC territory. With the popularity of Governor Zulum and VP – elect Kashim Shettima, it will be a straightforward victory for the APC.
CROSS RIVERS- This state is controlled by the APC after governor Ben Ayade made a bold political suicide of decamping to the APC knowing full well that the state is traditionally PDP. The governor may have thought that he can use his influence as governor to build the APC in the state but this doesn’t appear to be the case. The APC and PDP will divide their votes thus allowing the Labour Party to sneak in and win the state. The state will fall to the Obidients.
DELTA: The Labour Party will win this state and the PDP will come a close second. Obi tsunami is fully grounded in this state and even the go-getter APC candidate DSP Omo-Agege cannot stop the Obidients
EBONYI: The ruling APC will likely lose this state to Labour Party by a wide margin. The Obi tsunami will sweep through Ebonyi with ease.
ENUGU- The Labour Party will easily win this state with PDP coming a distant second. The dark horse Guber candidate of the Labour Party in Enugu state is already banking on his luck
GOMBE: The PDP won the Presidential election convincingly in this state owing to a mix of anti-party activities by some APC leaders and the growing unpopularity of the current governor Inuwa. The PDP will likely have a smooth sale and win the state but it will be a tight race.
JIGAWA: A supposed APC territory although the PDP has a very good ground as well. The only stumbling block to APC’s victory is if the PDP can work out an alliance with the NNPP. This seems too late to happen though.
KADUNA- This state is a test case of Nigeria and a clear example of what happened during the Presidential election where the Labour Party ate into PDP’s votes to deny the PDP victory and allow the APC to sneak in and smile home. If the Labour Party contests the election, the APC will likely win the state because Labour will eat up PDP’s votes in Southern Kaduna. On the other hand, if the Labour Party candidate withdraws or goes into an alliance with the PDP, the APC will be out of Sir Kashim Ibrahim’s house in a jiffy. The PDP has a good chance to win the state.
KANO: The NNPP is on a smooth sail in Kano and will almost certainly clinch victory this Saturday while the APC will come a distant second. Even an alliance between the APC and PDP cannot stop Kwankwaso’s NNPP from winning the state. Abba Kabir Yusuf, the Guber candidate of the NNPP is not far from it when he said Governor Ganduje should start preparing his handover notes.
KATSINA: The current level of insecurity will make the APC lose the state to the PDP. The people of Katsina state feel that the State Government under Aminu Masari is not doing enough to fight insecurity in the state. Bandits are calling the shots and holding innocent villagers to ransom in many villages of katsina state. Recall that Governor Aminu Masari had almost given up on insecurity and surrendered to the bandits when he flatly told the people of Kstsuna state to ‘protect yourselves against the bandits. If you cannot afford a gun, use a catapult.
The PDP will win this state in s very tight race. An alliance between the APC and NNPP could be the game changer for the APC.
KEBBI– There is almost an indescribable resentment against the APC government led by Atiku Bagudu hence it is almost a fait accompli that the PDP will win this state. The people felt Governor Bagudu didn’t deliver the dividend of democracy to them throughout his tenure, not even close.
The PDP won the Presidential election in the state with a reasonable margin of almost 40,000 votes.
KWARA– This is another APC territory. The party had cemented its impending victory this Saturday by consuming some of the smaller parties in the state such as Labour and NNPP under an alliance of inconvenience.
LAGOS: The die is cast here and you can literally feel the tension in Lagos from Abuja. Clearly it is advantage APC over Labour because most of the Obidients may not bother in the Guber election than they did in the Presidential. The towering stature of Peter Obi seems to be the factor rather than the ideology of the Labour Party. 9 out of 10, Obidients voted for Peter Obi not really the Labour Party. This could be linked to the man’s seeming innocent look, charisma on one hand and ethnicity and religion on the other. So the Obidients in Lagos may not have the taste to come out emmasse to vote, climb the skies and ‘push it’ for the Labour Party candidate Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour against incumbent Governor Sanwo-Olu as they did on February 25th for Peter Obi against Asiwaju Tinubu.
The APC also has the power of incumbency to go with. On the other hand, if the Labour Party can strike an alliance with the PDP (which is highly unlikely), it could change the game. Additionally, the President-elect Asiwaju Tinubu will want to deliver his state as it will help his focus to deliver good governance at the national level devoid of distractions from his home state.
NASSARAWA: This is a straight battle between the APC and Labour. The PDP could be the kingmaker. Any of the top two that can get the PDP into an alliance will win the election. APC could win it with the help of the incumbency factor.
NIGER- The APC will win this state with a slim margin over the PDP. Labour could change the game in PDP’s favour if it goes into an alliance with the PDP.
OGUN- A traditional APC territory. The APC will win it by a reasonable margin over the PDP.
OYO- The APC won the Presidential election in this state because Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is on the ballot. It will be different in the Guber election where the PDP is likely going to retain the state.
PLATEAU- The only factor stopping the Labour Party from winning this election is an alliance between the APC and the PDP which is highly unlikely. The time is up for the APC in this state as the Obi tsunami is likely going to come to play here.
RIVERS- The APC won the Presidential election in this state but the story will change in the Guber election as Governor Wike will deploy his arsenal to ensure victory for his party, the PDP. The Labour Party has an outside chance in this state.
SOKOTO- This is going to be interesting because the growing resentment of the people of Sokoto state against the Aminu Tambuwal administration will come to play. The people of Sokoto state feel that the Tambuwal administration has not delivered the dividends of democracy to them throughout the 8 years it held sway. Also, the huge grassroots support enjoyed by Sen Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, the APC leader in the state may win it for the APC. Clearly the Tambuwal administration has not connected with the people in the state hence the PDP in the state will struggle this Saturday. The APC will win Sokoto state this Saturday but it will be close as the PDP looks desperate and will maximally use its power of incumbency.
TARABA- You can always expect a PDP victory in Taraba state no matter the odds. The Labour Party will come second.
YOBE- The PDP won the Presidential election in this state but that may change in the Guber election. It is fair to say though, that without the incumbency factor, the state could slip into the hands of the PDP. Indeed an upgrade of political consciousness is apparent in Yobe state. The APC will win it.
ZAMFARA- There is some sort of desperation by the APC to retain power in this state despite the growing unpopularity of the Bello Matawalle administration. The APC administration resorted to scare-mongering to win the Presidential election in the state but that will change this Saturday as the people feel that the state Governor is not doing enough to deal with the very high insecurity in the state just as some feel that he (Governor Matawalle) has a soft spot for the bandits who are on a mission to destroy Zamfara state and are continuously killing many innocent indigenes of the state. The lackadaisical attitude of the Matawalle administration towards tackling banditry in the state has led to the state being dubbed ‘capital of banditry in Nigeria. The people of Zamfara state are obviously not happy and would want to send a very strong and clear message this Saturday.
It will be very close but the PDP will win the state.
Politics
Kogi’s Quiet Shift: Reviewing Governor Ododo’s First 24 Months in Office
Kogi’s Quiet Shift: Reviewing Governor Ododo’s First 24 Months in Office
By Rowland Olonishuwa
On Tuesday, Kogi State paused to mark two years since Alhaji Ahmed Usman Ododo took the oath as Executive Governor. Across government circles, community halls, and everyday conversations, the anniversary was more than a date on the calendar; it was a milestone that invites both reflection and renewed optimism. A moment to look back at how far the state has travelled in just twenty-four months, and where it is heading next.
Since assuming office in January 2024, Ododo has steered the state through a period of measured consolidation, delivering strategic interventions across security, infrastructure, human capital, and economic revitalisation that are beginning to translate into real improvements for residents.
Governor Ododo stepped into office at a time when expectations were high, and confidence in public institutions needed rebuilding.
His response to these was not loud declarations, but steady consolidation, strengthening structures, restoring order in governance, and setting a clear direction. Over time, that calm approach has become his signature: leadership that listens first, plans carefully, and moves with purpose.
Security has remained the most urgent concern for Nigerians, and Kogi residents are no exceptions; the Ododo-led administration has treated it as such. From deploying surveillance drones to support intelligence operations to recruiting and integrating local hunters and vigilante personnel into formal security frameworks, the government has built a layered safety net.
For farmers returning to their fields, travellers moving along highways, and families in rural communities, the impact is simple and deeply personal: fewer fears, quicker response, and growing confidence that the government is present and concerned about the ordinary people.
Infrastructural development has followed the same practical logic. Roads have been rehabilitated, easing movement for traders and commuters. Budget priorities have shifted toward capital projects and human development, while revived facilities like the Confluence Rice Mill now provide farmers with real economic opportunity. For many households, this means better income prospects, stronger local trade, and renewed belief that development is no longer a distant promise.
Health and education are not left out; the Ododo-led administration has expanded free healthcare services and supported students through examination funding and institutional improvements.
Parents who once struggled with medical bills and school fees have felt relief. Young people preparing for their futures now see government investment not as abstract policy but as something that touches their daily lives.
Governance reforms, from civil service strengthening to new legislative frameworks, have quietly improved how government functions. Salaries are more predictable, public offices are more responsive, and local government structures are more coordinated. These may not always make headlines, but they shape how citizens experience leadership every day.
As the second year anniversary celebrations fade into routine today and Governor Ododo enters his third year in office, the true meaning of the anniversary will continue to linger on.
Two years may not have solved every challenge in the Confluence State -no government ever does, by the way- but they have set a tone of stability, responsiveness, and direction. The next phase will demand deeper impact, broader reach, and sustained security gains.
But for many in Kogi State, the story of the past twenty-four months is already clear: steady hands on the wheel, and a journey that is firmly underway.
Olonishuwa is the Editor-in-Chief of Newshubmag.com. He writes from Ilorin
Politics
Lagos Assembly Debunks Abuja House Rumour, Warns Against Election Season Propaganda
Lagos Assembly Debunks Abuja House Rumour, Warns Against Election Season Propaganda
The Lagos State House of Assembly has described as misleading and mischievous the widespread misinformation that it budgeted for the purchase of houses in Abuja for its members in the 2026 Appropriation Law.
This rebuttal is contained in a statement jointly signed by Hon. Stephen Ogundipe, Chairman, House Committee on Information, Strategy, and Security, and Hon. Sa’ad Olumoh, Chairman, House Committee on Economic Planning and Budget.
Describing the report as a deliberate and disturbing falsehood being peddled by patently ignorant people, the statement reads, “There is no provision whatsoever in the 2026 Budget for the purchase of houses in Abuja or anywhere else for members of the Lagos State House of Assembly. The report is a complete fabrication and a product of political mischief intended to misinform the public.
“The Lagos State House of Assembly does not operate in Abuja. Our constitutional responsibilities, constituencies, and legislative duties are entirely within Lagos State. It is, therefore, illogical, irrational, and irresponsible for anyone to suggest that legislators would appropriate public funds for personal housing outside their jurisdiction.”
The statement emphasised that the budget is already in the public domain and accessible for scrutiny by discerning Lagosians and Nigerians alike. It reiterated that the Lagos State Government operates a transparent budget that speaks to the needs of the people and the demands of a megalopolis.
“We view this rumour as part of a wider attempt at election-season propaganda, designed to erode public trust, sow discord, and malign democratic institutions.”
The chairmen further clarified that the 2026 capital expenditure of the House of Assembly is less than 0.04% of the total CAPEX of the state, which clearly demonstrates the culture of prudence, accountability, and fiscal responsibility that guides the legislature. However, they noted, “Historically, the House does not even access up to its approved budget in many fiscal years.”
They stressed that the Assembly remains fully committed to excellence, transparency, good governance, and the collective welfare of the people of Lagos State, in line with the objectives of the 2026 Budget of Shared Prosperity.
“We therefore challenge those behind this harebrained allegation to produce credible evidence or retract their statements forthwith. Failure to do so may attract appropriate legal actions.
“We urge Lagosians and the general public to disregard this baseless rumour and always verify information from official and credible sources.”
Politics
Democracy in the Crosshairs: How Nigeria’s Ruling APC Weaponises Power and Silences Dissent
Democracy in the Crosshairs: How Nigeria’s Ruling APC Weaponises Power and Silences Dissent.
By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by saharaweeklyng.com
“Tinubu’s Government, the EFCC and the Strategic Undermining of Opposition Governors”.
In a striking indictment of Nigeria’s current political reality, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State declared that “you cannot speak truth to power in this dispensation”, directly accusing the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of intolerance for dissent and an erosion of democratic norms.
Makinde’s remarks (made during a public event in Ibadan on January 25, 2026) were more than a local governor’s lament. They crystallised a mounting national frustration: that Nigeria’s political landscape has tilted dangerously toward executive overreach, institutional capture and political engineering.
This narrative is not isolated. Across Nigeria, governors from opposition parties have defected to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in numbers unprecedented in the nation’s democratic history. Critics argue that these defections are not merely voluntary political choices, but part of a strategic pressure campaign leveraging federal power and institutions to fracture opposition influence.
At its centre lies Nigeria’s principal anti-graft agency – the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
The EFCC: Anti-Graft Agency or Political Instrument? Founded to combat corruption, the EFCC’s constitutional mandate is to investigate and prosecute financial and economic crimes across public and private sectors. Its legal independence is enshrined in statute and it has historically pursued high-profile cases, including recovery of nearly $500 million in illicit assets in a single year, demonstrating its capacity for tackling corruption.
However, critics now claim that under the Tinubu administration, the EFCC’s prosecutorial power is being perceived (if not deployed) as a political instrument.
Opposition leaders, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and coalition parties such as the African Democratic Congress (ADC), have publicly accused the federal government of using anti-corruption agencies to intimidate opposition figures and governors, effectively pressuring them into aligning with the APC.
In a statement released in December 2025, opposition figures alleged that institutions such as the EFCC, the Nigerian Police and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission were being selectively wielded to weaken political competitors rather than combat financial crime impartially.
This is not merely rhetorical noise. The opposition’s grievances centre on several observable patterns:
Reopened or New Investigations Against Opposition Figures: The ADC pointed to recent abnormal reactivation of long-dormant cases or new inquiries into financial activities involving senior opposition politicians. These, they argue, often arise shortly before critical elections or political realignments.
Alleged Differential Treatment: According to opponents of the current administration, individuals who have defected to the APC appear less likely to face sustained legal scrutiny or prosecution in EFCC proceedings, even in cases of credible allegations of mismanagement.
Timing of Actions: The timing of certain high-profile investigations, emerging ahead of the 2027 general elections, reinforces perceptions that anti-graft measures are tailored to political cycles rather than legal merit.
The EFCC and Presidency have publicly denied these allegations, insisting that the commission operates independently and pursues corruption irrespective of political affiliation and that Nigeria’s democratic freedoms (including party choice and mobility) remain intact.
Yet the perception of bias, once systemic, is hard to erase, especially when political actors deploy powerful state machinery with strategic timing and selective intensity.
Defections and Power Realignment: A Democracy at Risk? Since 2023 and particularly through 2025, a remarkable number of state governors and senior political leaders have crossed over from opposition parties (notably the Peoples Democratic Party – PDP) to the APC. Though defections are normal in Nigeria’s fluid political system, the scale and speed in recent years are historically noteworthy, raising critical questions about underlying incentives.
The SaharaWeeklyNG reported Makinde’s comments within the broader context of a political climate where dissenting voices face greater obstacles than at any time in recent democratic memory.
Governors who remain in opposition find themselves squeezed between growing federal assertiveness and dwindling political capital. Some analysts argue that the combination of federal resource control, political appointments and influence over public agencies exerts tangible pressure on subnational leaders to align with the ruling party for political survival. This dynamic, they contend, undermines competitive party politics and weakens Nigeria’s multiparty democracy.
Speaking Truth to Power: What Makinde’s Critique Exposes. Governor Makinde’s core grievance (that it is increasingly difficult, perhaps perilous, to speak truth to power) resonates widely among civil society actors, political analysts and democratic advocates:
“YOU CANNOT SPEAK TRUTH TO POWER IN THIS DISPENSATION,” Makinde declared, specifically citing the government’s handling of contentious tax reform bills as an example where dissent was neither welcomed nor transparently debated.
Makinde’s critique reflects deeper structural concerns:
Exclusion of Key Stakeholders: Opposition leaders and state executives report being marginalised from meaningful consultation on national policies affecting federal-state relations, revenue sharing and fiscal reforms.
Institutional Intimidation: The perception that state politicians become targets of federal legal scrutiny after taking firm oppositional stances (real or perceived) discourages robust democratic debate.
Erosion of Opposition Space: A symbiotic effect of party defections and institutional pressure is a shrinking viable space for genuine political opposition, weakening checks and balances essential to democratic governance.
A respected political scientist, Dr. Aisha Bello of the University of Lagos, recently argued that “when opposition becomes fraught with state leverage instead of ideological competition, the very foundation of democratic contestation collapses,” adding that “a government that shies away from criticism risks inversion into autocracy.”
Another expert, Prof. Chinedu Eze, former dean of political studies at Ahmadu Bello University, warned that “selective use of anti-corruption agencies as political tools corrodes public trust and ultimately delegates justice into the hands of incumbents rather than independent courts.” These observations echo growing public skepticism.
The Way Forward: Strengthening Democracy and Institutions. Nigeria’s path forward depends on restoring confidence in democratic norms and institutional independence.
Transparent EFCC Processes: Civil society groups and legal scholars are advocating for enhanced transparency in anti-graft investigations, including clear prosecutorial thresholds and independent audits of case initiation and closures.
Judicial Oversight: Strengthening the judiciary’s capacity and independence is critical to ensuring that allegations of political weaponisation do not go unchecked. Courts must remain the ultimate arbiters of evidence and guilt.
Political Reforms: Advocates demand reforms to party financing, federal-state fiscal relations, and consultation mechanisms to reduce incentives for defections driven by federal resource leverage.
Public Engagement: A more informed and engaged civil society, anchored by independent media and civic education, must hold both government and opposition accountable for adherence to democratic principles.
Beyond The Present Moment.
Governor Makinde’s assertion that it is no longer tenable to “speak truth to power” under the current administration reflects unsettling trends in Nigeria’s evolving democratic landscape. While the EFCC and the Presidency maintain that anti-corruption efforts are independent and constitutionally grounded, opposition leaders (backed by political data and patterns of defections) argue that state power is being used to consolidate one-party dominance and undermine political pluralism.
At this critical juncture, Nigeria must choose between entrenching competitive democracy or sliding toward a political monopoly where dissent is subdued, institutions compromised, and power concentrated.
For Nigeria’s democratic ideals to survive (and thrive) its leaders and citizens must ensure that speaking truth to power remains not a perilous act of defiance but an honoured pillar of national life.
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