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Governorship Election: Kebbi  Looks Good For PDP—Dr Abubakar Alkalii

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Governorship Election: Kebbi  Looks Good For PDP—Dr Abubakar Alkalii

Governorship Election: Kebbi  Looks Good For PDP—Dr Abubakar Alkali

           

After the nationwide Presidential and National Assembly elections, attention is now shifted to the statewide Guber and state houses of assembly elections which promises to be another possible switch from the conventional nay traditional pattern of elections in Nigeria. There is the likelihood of surprises in some states, particularly in the South-East and the South-South including some parts of the middle belt owing to the Obi tsunami sweeping across mainly the southern and North central parts of the country. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The two main political parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may not have a smooth sail in some of the states under their control owing largely to the tsunami of the Labour Party in the SE and SS and parts of the North-central. From all indications, there is largely going to be a change of guard party-wise in many states including the North West and North -East although the power of incumbency will still play out in some states. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  This Saturday, Gubernatorial elections are expected to hold in 28 out of the 36 states.

The states where the Guber elections will hold this Saturday are as follows: 

Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara.

17 state governors have completed their second terms and will not be seeking re-election. 

These states are Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Kano, Benue, Niger, Plateau, Taraba, Cross Rivers, Rivers, Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia, Ekiti, Delta. 

The 11 states where Governors are seeking re-election: Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Zamfara, Kwara, Nassarawa, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo. 

The 8 ‘off-season’ states where Guber elections will not be this Saturday are:

Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Osun, and Ondo 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Likely outcome

Below is a state-by-state analysis of the likely outcome of the Guber elections this Saturday. 

ABIA– The Labour Party is almost certainly winning this state by a wide margin. This will be part of the Obi tsunami sweeping across the SE and SS geopolitical zone and part of the North-central. The ruling PDP in the state will come a distant second.

 

 

 

ADAMAWA-The APC is fielding the first female Guber candidate in the state Sen Binani. Although she had made history, Sen Aishatu Binani will not be able to overcome the ‘men’ in the PDP. The PDP will win Adamawa but Sen Binani will almost certainly be involved in the incoming Tinubu administration as a minister and member of the federal executive council or something close to that. The PDP will retain this state by a reasonable margin.

 

 

 

AKWA IBOM– Despite the Obi tsunami sweeping across the SE and SS, the PDP will retain this state but Labour will come a close second. 

BAUCHI– The PDP will win this state albeit it faces stiff opposition from the APC. If the APC can strike a realistic deal with the NNPP, it may make a better showing but the PDP will win it regardless. 

BENUE– The Obedient Labour Party is on the rise in this state but the APC will win it. The APC has the advantage of fielding a very popular and charismatic candidate Rev Fr Hyacinth Alia. The influence of the kingmaker Sen George Akume will come into play here. However, if the PDP can negotiate a workable alliance with Labour, it may cause more problems for the APC. 

 

 

 

BORNO: This is a classical APC territory. With the popularity of Governor Zulum and VP – elect Kashim Shettima, it will be a straightforward victory for the APC.

 

 

 

 

CROSS RIVERS- This state is controlled by the APC after governor Ben Ayade made a bold political suicide of decamping to the APC knowing full well that the state is traditionally PDP. The governor may have thought that he can use his influence as governor to build the APC in the state but this doesn’t appear to be the case. The APC and PDP will divide their votes thus allowing the Labour Party to sneak in and win the state. The state will fall to the Obidients. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DELTA: The Labour Party will win this state and the PDP will come a close second. Obi tsunami is fully grounded in this state and even the go-getter APC candidate DSP Omo-Agege cannot stop the Obidients 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBONYI: The ruling APC will likely lose this state to Labour Party by a wide margin. The Obi tsunami will sweep through Ebonyi with ease. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ENUGU- The Labour Party will easily win this state with PDP coming a distant second. The dark horse Guber candidate of the Labour Party in Enugu state is already banking on his luck 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOMBE: The PDP won the Presidential election convincingly in this state owing to a mix of anti-party activities by some APC leaders and the growing unpopularity of the current governor Inuwa. The PDP will likely have a smooth sale and win the state but it will be a tight race. 

 

JIGAWA: A supposed APC territory although the PDP has a very good ground as well. The only stumbling block to APC’s victory is if the PDP can work out an alliance with the NNPP. This seems too late to happen though. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KADUNA- This state is a test case of Nigeria and a clear example of what happened during the Presidential election where the Labour Party ate into PDP’s votes to deny the PDP victory and allow the APC to sneak in and smile home. If the Labour Party contests the election, the APC will likely win the state because Labour will eat up PDP’s votes in Southern Kaduna. On the other hand, if the Labour Party candidate withdraws or goes into an alliance with the PDP, the APC will be out of Sir Kashim Ibrahim’s house in a jiffy. The PDP has a good chance to win the state. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KANO: The NNPP is on a smooth sail in Kano and will almost certainly clinch victory this Saturday while the APC will come a distant second. Even an alliance between the APC and PDP cannot stop Kwankwaso’s NNPP from winning the state. Abba Kabir Yusuf, the Guber candidate of the NNPP is not far from it when he said Governor Ganduje should start preparing his handover notes. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KATSINA: The current level of insecurity will make the APC lose the state to the PDP. The people of Katsina state feel that the State Government under Aminu Masari is not doing enough to fight insecurity in the state. Bandits are calling the shots and holding innocent villagers to ransom in many villages of katsina state. Recall that Governor Aminu Masari had almost given up on insecurity and surrendered to the bandits when he flatly told the people of Kstsuna state to ‘protect yourselves against the bandits. If you cannot afford a gun, use a catapult.

The PDP will win this state in s very tight race. An alliance between the APC and NNPP could be the game changer for the APC. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KEBBI– There is almost an indescribable resentment against the APC government led by Atiku Bagudu hence it is almost a fait accompli that the PDP will win this state. The people felt Governor Bagudu didn’t deliver the dividend of democracy to them throughout his tenure, not even close. 

The PDP won the Presidential election in the state with a reasonable margin of almost 40,000 votes. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KWARA– This is another APC territory. The party had cemented its impending victory this Saturday by consuming some of the smaller parties in the state such as Labour and NNPP under an alliance of inconvenience. 

LAGOS: The die is cast here and  you can literally feel the tension in Lagos from Abuja. Clearly it is advantage APC over Labour because most of the Obidients may not bother in the Guber election than they did in the Presidential. The towering stature of Peter Obi seems to be the factor rather than the ideology of the Labour Party. 9 out of 10, Obidients voted for Peter Obi not really the Labour Party. This could be linked to the man’s seeming innocent look, charisma on one hand and ethnicity and religion on the other. So the Obidients in Lagos may not have the taste to come out emmasse to vote, climb the skies and ‘push it’ for the Labour Party candidate Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour against incumbent Governor Sanwo-Olu as they did on February 25th for Peter Obi against Asiwaju Tinubu. 

The APC also has the power of incumbency to go with. On the other hand, if the Labour Party can strike an alliance with the PDP (which is highly unlikely), it could change the game. Additionally, the President-elect Asiwaju Tinubu will want to deliver his state as it will help his focus to deliver good governance at the national level devoid of distractions from his home state. 

NASSARAWA: This is a straight battle between the APC and Labour. The PDP could be the kingmaker. Any of the top two that can get the PDP into an alliance will win the election. APC could win it with the help of the incumbency factor. 

NIGER- The APC will win this state with a slim margin over the PDP. Labour could change the game in PDP’s favour if it goes into an alliance with the PDP. 

OGUN- A traditional APC territory. The APC will win it by a reasonable margin over the PDP. 

OYO- The APC won the Presidential election in this state because Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is on the ballot. It will be different in the Guber election where the PDP is likely going to retain the state. 

PLATEAU- The only factor stopping the Labour Party from winning this election is an alliance between the APC and the PDP which is highly unlikely. The time is up for the APC in this state as the Obi tsunami is likely going to come to play here. 

RIVERS- The APC won the Presidential election in this state but the story will change in the Guber election as Governor Wike will deploy his arsenal to ensure victory for his party, the PDP. The Labour Party has an outside chance in this state. 

SOKOTO- This is going to be interesting because the growing resentment of the people of Sokoto state against the Aminu Tambuwal administration will come to play. The people of Sokoto state feel that the Tambuwal administration has not delivered the dividends of democracy to them throughout the 8 years it held sway. Also, the huge grassroots support enjoyed by Sen Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, the APC leader in the state may win it for the APC. Clearly the Tambuwal administration has not connected with the people in the state hence the PDP in the state will struggle this Saturday. The APC will win Sokoto state this Saturday but it will be close as the PDP looks desperate and will maximally use its power of incumbency. 

TARABA- You can always expect a PDP victory in Taraba state no matter the odds. The Labour Party will come second. 

YOBE- The PDP won the Presidential election in this state but that may change in the Guber election. It is fair to say though, that without the incumbency factor, the state could slip into the hands of the PDP. Indeed an upgrade of political consciousness is apparent in Yobe state. The APC will win it. 

ZAMFARA- There is some sort of desperation by the APC to retain power in this state despite the growing unpopularity of the Bello Matawalle administration. The APC administration resorted to scare-mongering to win the Presidential election in the state but that will change this Saturday as the people feel that the state Governor is not doing enough to deal with the very high insecurity in the state just as some feel that he (Governor Matawalle) has a soft spot for the bandits who are on a mission to destroy Zamfara state and are continuously killing many innocent indigenes of the state. The lackadaisical attitude of the Matawalle administration towards tackling banditry in the state has led to the state being dubbed ‘capital of banditry in Nigeria. The people of Zamfara state are obviously not happy and would want to send a very strong and clear message this Saturday. 

It will be very close but the PDP will win the state.

Politics

Amupitan: Why the ADC is Chasing Shadows

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Amupitan: Why the ADC is Chasing Shadows

Sanya Oni

It is no surprise that the African Democratic Congress is insistent on the immediate resignation of the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Prof. Joash Amupitan. First, was for the ‘high crime’ of seeking to play safe over a judgment of the court which demanded that ADC’s feuding parties and INEC under the leadership of Amupitan in particular take no further step to present the court with a fait accompli over a matter before it. Not sufficient to play the judge and jury in its own cause, it also insists on treating the appearance of any position deemed contrary to its own as treasonable.

 

Now, they want the head of the electoral body served on the platter over an alleged pro-President Bola Tinubu tweet in 2023. And so determined to press its case, the ADC, in a statement by its rambunctious National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, would on Saturday, lob yet another charge at the INEC boss for what it claimed were attempts (by who?) to erase the digital trail of the offending tweet – which it also says amounted to a dangerous cover-up that undermined the credibility and neutrality of Nigeria’s electoral system.

 

Talk of an unproven tweet suddenly becoming an issue over which the chief electoral umpire’s integrity is not only being called into question but constituting the grounds for demanding for his head!

 

Of course, save for the party’s army of salesmen with their all-familiar talking points on prime time television, few Nigerians would be surprised by such antics which border on desperation. Before now, the party had, much earlier, raised the alarm over what it described as a calculated plot to impose a one-party state ahead of the 2027 general elections, accusing the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) of using INEC to weaken opposition parties.

 

Let’s take a look at the tragedy of a party which seeks to pride itself as a leading opposition but has done practically nothing to earn its stripes. It started with a horde of angry, internally displaced politicians overrunning the organs of a once-marginal party, the ADC in a spectacular act of a hostile take-over. Unfortunately, if the image presented by the party from the outside at the time was one of cohesion, it certainly did not help that the invaders neither possessed the patience nor the discipline to undertake the required due diligence! Now that it turns out that what they thought they had bought with pride was in every sense, a damaged good, Nigerians as a whole are being blackmailed, accused of being an accessory to their grand act of dereliction.

 

Yet, as the presidential candidate of the party in the 2023, general election, Dumebi Kachikwu, would care to remind, the takeover bid, being a flawed process is akin to erecting a castle on shifting sand. The tenure of the so-called chairman of the party, Ralph Nwosu, with whom the invaders negotiated, had long been rendered invalid by the effluxion of time. Not only that, the constitution of the party also made clear that those seeking the leadership of the party must have spent no less than two years in the party! These are supposed to be the issues before the courts!

 

Across the states, it is the same story of a party riven with crises from top to bottom. Yet, convinced that their good – as illegitimate as could be – was already theirs for keeps, the caretakers-turned undertakers plodded on, choosing to ignore the feelings of a section of the party hierarchs that needed to be placated. With just enough crude blackmail, impunity, cash and more cash in their armoury to waltz through, the conquistadors actually assumed they were unstoppable.

 

Of course, they pretended that the court processes are merely a side-show. The Federal High Court ruling which required the invaders to show cause why the prayers of the aggrieved ADC members should not be granted was thought of as a joke; the same way the judgment of the appellate court which directed the parties to return to status quo ante bellum was deemed by the ADC invaders a non-binding opinion hence their plans to proceed with a convention fraught with potential legal jeopardy.

 

To the invaders – Mark, Rauf Aregbesola et al, their interpretation, as against that of INEC with its tilt on neutrality – was sacrosanct.

 

While these drag on, trust the lawyers with their boring whining about how Section 83 of the Electoral Act, 2026 ousts the jurisdiction of the courts. Yes, it provides that “No court in Nigeria shall entertain jurisdiction over any suit or matter pertaining the internal affairs of a political party” as if that effectively translates to shutting the doors of mediation to aggrieved party men even on issues bordering on their rights or non-observance of party constitutions. In like manner, it is like the express provisions of Section 6(6)(b) which also provides that: “The judicial powers vested in accordance with the foregoing provisions of this section – shall extend to all matters between persons, or between government or authority and to any persons in Nigeria, and to all actions and proceedings relating thereto, for the determination of any question as to the civil rights and obligations of that person” has suddenly become superfluous in the current electoral cycle!

 

To return to the Amupitan matter: Should anyone be fooled by the orchestrated blackmail by those whose record private and public can’t hold a candle to Amupitan’s? Certainly not with what I had earlier described as a programmed de-legitimisation of the 2027 elections by overrated political actors being already an open book. Sure enough, the matter, in the coming days, would not be whether or not the gentleman from Kogi can take the heat, but how far those in the business of concocting lies would go to undermine the process simply because the odds are not going their way. While they are at it, they have still not told Nigerians how the lone individual – out of 37 odd Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs) and 12 National Commissioners, with two representing each of the six geopolitical zones, has suddenly become the ultimate decider of how things will go in 2027.

 

Reminds of the bad workman perennially blaming his tools.

 

First published in The Nation on April 14, 2026

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Ogun’s Future at Risk, Says MAO, Faults ‘Anointed’ Consensus Candidate Yayi

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*Ogun’s Future at Risk, Says MAO, Faults ‘Anointed’ Consensus Candidate Yayi*

“In a land starved of vision, even the barely capable are crowned as kings.”

 

With this striking illustration, Chairman of the Egba Agenda Forum, High Chief Mustapha Abdulakeem Owolabi (MAO), has condemned the emergence of Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, as the consensus governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ogun State.

 

 

In a strongly worded statement issued on Tuesday, Owolabi described the development as a “quiet and almost shameful orchestration,” insisting that the process reflects calculated imposition rather than the genuine will of the people.

 

 

According to him, while Yayi may have found political footing in Ogun about six years ago through Yewa, his elevation as a statewide consensus candidate without what he termed “a true test of popular mandate” raises fundamental concerns about the state of democracy in Ogun.

 

 

“This is not democracy; it is orchestration,” Owolabi declared.

 

The Egba Agenda Forum chairman further alleged that the move represents a stepping stone in a broader political design, suggesting that Ogun State risks becoming an extension of entrenched political influence beyond its borders.

 

 

He argued that the ambition behind the arrangement is “structured, patient and deliberate,” warning that such consolidation threatens the independence of the state’s political space.

 

 

Owolabi blamed past administrations for laying the groundwork for what he described as the recycling of failure. He accused previous leaders of governing “without building,” entrenching poverty, weakening institutions and replacing sustainable development with dependency.

 

 

“The next generation has learned the system too well,” he said. “They understand that you don’t need to fix the people; you only need to manage them.”

 

 

He criticized what is often presented as empowerment programmes, describing them as tools of control rather than genuine development initiatives. According to him, with education weakened, healthcare struggling, infrastructure decaying and debt mounting, citizens are left vulnerable to “small relief packages and symbolic gestures” that replace accountability with gratitude.

 

 

“This is not progress. It is recycling failure,” the statement read.

 

The Forum also expressed concern over what it called the systematic weakening of opposition parties, alleging that fractured and destabilized opposition voices leave citizens with “no real alternative only the illusion of choice.”

 

 

“True democracy thrives on vibrant, credible opposition. It demands competition, accountability and the constant testing of ideas,” Owolabi stated. “What we are witnessing is a slow drift toward political monopoly disguised as consensus.”

 

 

He further criticized former aspirants and political actors who, according to him, have abandoned principles in a bid to secure appointments and remain in the good graces of the “anointed.”

 

 

“Principles abandoned, convictions traded, ambition preserved at all costs. Shameful is an understatement,” he said.

 

Owolabi warned that the situation sends the wrong message to emerging political leaders, who he fears are being trained to perfect the same political playbook rather than inspired to chart a new course.

 

“A nation cannot rise on manipulation. A people cannot thrive on crumbs,” he added.

Concluding his statement, the Egba Agenda Forum chairman called on Nigerians to reflect deeply on the direction of the country’s democracy.

 

“‘Nigeria, we hail thee’ but surely, this cannot be the nation our forefathers envisioned, nor the system they hoped to build. If this cycle is not broken, then the future is already compromised. May Nigeria find the courage to demand more.”

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APC Picks Adeola Yayi as Consensus Candidate, Declares ‘New Ogun State Is Born’

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APC Picks Adeola Yayi as Consensus Candidate, Declares ‘New Ogun State Is Born’

 

ABEOKUTA, OGUN STATE — The Ogun State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has adopted Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, as its consensus governorship candidate ahead of the 2027 election.

The decision was announced on Monday, April 13, 2026, during a high-level party congress held in Abeokuta, drawing party leaders and stakeholders from across the state.

Governor Dapo Abiodun, who presided over the gathering, said the consensus arrangement was a strategic move to promote equity and inclusiveness, particularly by addressing what he described as a decades-long marginalisation of Ogun West Senatorial District in the state’s leadership structure.

He noted that the decision reflects a deliberate effort by the party to rotate power fairly among the state’s senatorial zones.

“Nothing will give me more joy than to fulfill the dreams of my predecessors — especially ensuring that Ogun West produces the next governor,” Abiodun said.

“I look forward to a time when I will sit proudly with my successor and my fellow former governors at the swearing-in of a new APC governor.”

Amid applause from party faithful, the governor formally unveiled Adeola as the party’s flagbearer, describing him as the most suitable candidate to lead the state into its next phase of development.

The announcement triggered jubilant reactions, with chants of “Yayi” echoing across the venue.

In his acceptance speech, Adeola expressed gratitude to party leaders and members, describing his emergence as a product of unity, sacrifice, and collective vision.

“I believe in oneness and the unity of our dear state and Ogun West by extension,” he said, pledging to justify the confidence reposed in him.

Adeola highlighted Ogun State’s growing economic relevance, noting its status as one of Nigeria’s most industrialised states. He promised to consolidate existing gains while advancing policies that would further drive development and prosperity.

“I will not let you down. I promise to keep the flag flying and maintain the unity, peace, and progress achieved in Ogun State,” he added.

Using a nautical metaphor, the senator assured party members of steady leadership, saying, “The ship I’m about to take over, I will make sure that it does not derail.”

He also emphasized inclusiveness, pledging to unite all factions within the party and across the state, regardless of political differences.

“By the grace of God, I will do my utmost best to keep every member of our great party together and ensure that we remain one indivisible family,” he said.

Declaring a new chapter for the state, Adeola proclaimed, “A new Ogun State is born,” promising a renewed focus on unity, development, and shared prosperity.

The endorsement, which took place during the APC Strategic Caucus Meeting, is widely seen as a defining moment in Ogun State politics, setting the stage for the 2027 governorship race and signaling strong internal cohesion within the ruling party.

APC Picks Adeola Yayi as Consensus Candidate, Declares ‘New Ogun State Is Born’

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