Politics
Governorship Election: Kebbi Looks Good For PDP—Dr Abubakar Alkalii
Published
2 years agoon

Governorship Election: Kebbi Looks Good For PDP—Dr Abubakar Alkali
After the nationwide Presidential and National Assembly elections, attention is now shifted to the statewide Guber and state houses of assembly elections which promises to be another possible switch from the conventional nay traditional pattern of elections in Nigeria. There is the likelihood of surprises in some states, particularly in the South-East and the South-South including some parts of the middle belt owing to the Obi tsunami sweeping across mainly the southern and North central parts of the country.
The two main political parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may not have a smooth sail in some of the states under their control owing largely to the tsunami of the Labour Party in the SE and SS and parts of the North-central. From all indications, there is largely going to be a change of guard party-wise in many states including the North West and North -East although the power of incumbency will still play out in some states.
This Saturday, Gubernatorial elections are expected to hold in 28 out of the 36 states.
The states where the Guber elections will hold this Saturday are as follows:
Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara.
17 state governors have completed their second terms and will not be seeking re-election.
These states are Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Kano, Benue, Niger, Plateau, Taraba, Cross Rivers, Rivers, Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia, Ekiti, Delta.
The 11 states where Governors are seeking re-election: Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Zamfara, Kwara, Nassarawa, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo.
The 8 ‘off-season’ states where Guber elections will not be this Saturday are:
Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Osun, and Ondo
Likely outcome
Below is a state-by-state analysis of the likely outcome of the Guber elections this Saturday.
ABIA– The Labour Party is almost certainly winning this state by a wide margin. This will be part of the Obi tsunami sweeping across the SE and SS geopolitical zone and part of the North-central. The ruling PDP in the state will come a distant second.
ADAMAWA-The APC is fielding the first female Guber candidate in the state Sen Binani. Although she had made history, Sen Aishatu Binani will not be able to overcome the ‘men’ in the PDP. The PDP will win Adamawa but Sen Binani will almost certainly be involved in the incoming Tinubu administration as a minister and member of the federal executive council or something close to that. The PDP will retain this state by a reasonable margin.
AKWA IBOM– Despite the Obi tsunami sweeping across the SE and SS, the PDP will retain this state but Labour will come a close second.
BAUCHI– The PDP will win this state albeit it faces stiff opposition from the APC. If the APC can strike a realistic deal with the NNPP, it may make a better showing but the PDP will win it regardless.
BENUE– The Obedient Labour Party is on the rise in this state but the APC will win it. The APC has the advantage of fielding a very popular and charismatic candidate Rev Fr Hyacinth Alia. The influence of the kingmaker Sen George Akume will come into play here. However, if the PDP can negotiate a workable alliance with Labour, it may cause more problems for the APC.
BORNO: This is a classical APC territory. With the popularity of Governor Zulum and VP – elect Kashim Shettima, it will be a straightforward victory for the APC.
CROSS RIVERS- This state is controlled by the APC after governor Ben Ayade made a bold political suicide of decamping to the APC knowing full well that the state is traditionally PDP. The governor may have thought that he can use his influence as governor to build the APC in the state but this doesn’t appear to be the case. The APC and PDP will divide their votes thus allowing the Labour Party to sneak in and win the state. The state will fall to the Obidients.
DELTA: The Labour Party will win this state and the PDP will come a close second. Obi tsunami is fully grounded in this state and even the go-getter APC candidate DSP Omo-Agege cannot stop the Obidients
EBONYI: The ruling APC will likely lose this state to Labour Party by a wide margin. The Obi tsunami will sweep through Ebonyi with ease.
ENUGU- The Labour Party will easily win this state with PDP coming a distant second. The dark horse Guber candidate of the Labour Party in Enugu state is already banking on his luck
GOMBE: The PDP won the Presidential election convincingly in this state owing to a mix of anti-party activities by some APC leaders and the growing unpopularity of the current governor Inuwa. The PDP will likely have a smooth sale and win the state but it will be a tight race.
JIGAWA: A supposed APC territory although the PDP has a very good ground as well. The only stumbling block to APC’s victory is if the PDP can work out an alliance with the NNPP. This seems too late to happen though.
KADUNA- This state is a test case of Nigeria and a clear example of what happened during the Presidential election where the Labour Party ate into PDP’s votes to deny the PDP victory and allow the APC to sneak in and smile home. If the Labour Party contests the election, the APC will likely win the state because Labour will eat up PDP’s votes in Southern Kaduna. On the other hand, if the Labour Party candidate withdraws or goes into an alliance with the PDP, the APC will be out of Sir Kashim Ibrahim’s house in a jiffy. The PDP has a good chance to win the state.
KANO: The NNPP is on a smooth sail in Kano and will almost certainly clinch victory this Saturday while the APC will come a distant second. Even an alliance between the APC and PDP cannot stop Kwankwaso’s NNPP from winning the state. Abba Kabir Yusuf, the Guber candidate of the NNPP is not far from it when he said Governor Ganduje should start preparing his handover notes.
KATSINA: The current level of insecurity will make the APC lose the state to the PDP. The people of Katsina state feel that the State Government under Aminu Masari is not doing enough to fight insecurity in the state. Bandits are calling the shots and holding innocent villagers to ransom in many villages of katsina state. Recall that Governor Aminu Masari had almost given up on insecurity and surrendered to the bandits when he flatly told the people of Kstsuna state to ‘protect yourselves against the bandits. If you cannot afford a gun, use a catapult.
The PDP will win this state in s very tight race. An alliance between the APC and NNPP could be the game changer for the APC.
KEBBI– There is almost an indescribable resentment against the APC government led by Atiku Bagudu hence it is almost a fait accompli that the PDP will win this state. The people felt Governor Bagudu didn’t deliver the dividend of democracy to them throughout his tenure, not even close.
The PDP won the Presidential election in the state with a reasonable margin of almost 40,000 votes.
KWARA– This is another APC territory. The party had cemented its impending victory this Saturday by consuming some of the smaller parties in the state such as Labour and NNPP under an alliance of inconvenience.
LAGOS: The die is cast here and you can literally feel the tension in Lagos from Abuja. Clearly it is advantage APC over Labour because most of the Obidients may not bother in the Guber election than they did in the Presidential. The towering stature of Peter Obi seems to be the factor rather than the ideology of the Labour Party. 9 out of 10, Obidients voted for Peter Obi not really the Labour Party. This could be linked to the man’s seeming innocent look, charisma on one hand and ethnicity and religion on the other. So the Obidients in Lagos may not have the taste to come out emmasse to vote, climb the skies and ‘push it’ for the Labour Party candidate Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour against incumbent Governor Sanwo-Olu as they did on February 25th for Peter Obi against Asiwaju Tinubu.
The APC also has the power of incumbency to go with. On the other hand, if the Labour Party can strike an alliance with the PDP (which is highly unlikely), it could change the game. Additionally, the President-elect Asiwaju Tinubu will want to deliver his state as it will help his focus to deliver good governance at the national level devoid of distractions from his home state.
NASSARAWA: This is a straight battle between the APC and Labour. The PDP could be the kingmaker. Any of the top two that can get the PDP into an alliance will win the election. APC could win it with the help of the incumbency factor.
NIGER- The APC will win this state with a slim margin over the PDP. Labour could change the game in PDP’s favour if it goes into an alliance with the PDP.
OGUN- A traditional APC territory. The APC will win it by a reasonable margin over the PDP.
OYO- The APC won the Presidential election in this state because Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is on the ballot. It will be different in the Guber election where the PDP is likely going to retain the state.
PLATEAU- The only factor stopping the Labour Party from winning this election is an alliance between the APC and the PDP which is highly unlikely. The time is up for the APC in this state as the Obi tsunami is likely going to come to play here.
RIVERS- The APC won the Presidential election in this state but the story will change in the Guber election as Governor Wike will deploy his arsenal to ensure victory for his party, the PDP. The Labour Party has an outside chance in this state.
SOKOTO- This is going to be interesting because the growing resentment of the people of Sokoto state against the Aminu Tambuwal administration will come to play. The people of Sokoto state feel that the Tambuwal administration has not delivered the dividends of democracy to them throughout the 8 years it held sway. Also, the huge grassroots support enjoyed by Sen Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, the APC leader in the state may win it for the APC. Clearly the Tambuwal administration has not connected with the people in the state hence the PDP in the state will struggle this Saturday. The APC will win Sokoto state this Saturday but it will be close as the PDP looks desperate and will maximally use its power of incumbency.
TARABA- You can always expect a PDP victory in Taraba state no matter the odds. The Labour Party will come second.
YOBE- The PDP won the Presidential election in this state but that may change in the Guber election. It is fair to say though, that without the incumbency factor, the state could slip into the hands of the PDP. Indeed an upgrade of political consciousness is apparent in Yobe state. The APC will win it.
ZAMFARA- There is some sort of desperation by the APC to retain power in this state despite the growing unpopularity of the Bello Matawalle administration. The APC administration resorted to scare-mongering to win the Presidential election in the state but that will change this Saturday as the people feel that the state Governor is not doing enough to deal with the very high insecurity in the state just as some feel that he (Governor Matawalle) has a soft spot for the bandits who are on a mission to destroy Zamfara state and are continuously killing many innocent indigenes of the state. The lackadaisical attitude of the Matawalle administration towards tackling banditry in the state has led to the state being dubbed ‘capital of banditry in Nigeria. The people of Zamfara state are obviously not happy and would want to send a very strong and clear message this Saturday.
It will be very close but the PDP will win the state.
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Sahara weekly online is published by First Sahara weekly international. contact saharaweekly@yahoo.com

Politics
Lagos APC in Turmoil as Chairmanship Aspirants Reject ‘Imposition Plot’ Ahead of Council Polls
Published
3 days agoon
May 10, 2025
Lagos APC in Turmoil as Chairmanship Aspirants Reject ‘Imposition Plot’ Ahead of Council Polls
LAGOS — With barely two months to the July 12 local government elections in Lagos State, crisis is rocking the state chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) amid growing outrage over alleged attempts by party powerbrokers to impose chairmanship candidates across several councils.
What began as routine preparations for the party’s primary elections has exploded into factional disputes, protests, and petitions—threatening to fracture the APC’s long-standing grip on Lagos politics.
Aspirants and stakeholders across multiple Local Government Areas (LGAs) and Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) have accused influential party figures of hijacking the screening and selection process under the guise of “consensus,” which many claim is being used as a smokescreen for imposition.
In Ojokoro LCDA, tension escalated after a group known as the Ojokoro Apex Council declared Mobolaji Sanusi as the consensus candidate in a letter endorsed by former House of Reps members, Ipoola Omisore and Adisa Owolabi. However, controversy erupted when a rival group presented Rosiji Yemisi as their preferred aspirant, sparking accusations of “importing a candidate backed by Speaker Mudashiru Obasa.”
“You can’t force a stranger with no political roots here on us,” said a local party member who requested anonymity. “This is not democracy; it’s dictatorship in disguise.”
Similar unrest flared up in Yaba LCDA, where a coalition of landlords, electorates, and political stakeholders cried foul over an alleged attempt to replace top-ranked aspirant William Babatunde—who scored 85% in the screening exercise—with Babatunde Ojo, who reportedly came 11th.
In a passionate petition addressed to First Lady Oluremi Tinubu, the group warned that repeating the politics of imposition could destabilize the APC’s base and impede development.
“We urge President Tinubu and Her Excellency to intervene and halt this travesty,” said Amoo Ismail, the coalition leader. “We must protect the democratic voice of our communities.”
The discontent isn’t isolated. In Agboyi-Ketu LCDA, Opeyemi Ahmed, media aide to outgoing chairman Dele Osinowo, slammed party leaders in a now-deleted Facebook post. He warned that ignoring internal democracy could backfire in 2027.
“If a few are writing names at the top and using fake strategy to call for consensus at the bottom, then Tinubu should be ready to lose Lagos come 2027,” Ahmed cautioned.
Veteran APC chieftain Fouad Oki added weight to the warnings in a scathing open letter titled “Lagos APC’s Crisis of Democracy”. Oki described the brewing conflict as a “crisis of confidence” and warned of an electoral backlash that could reverberate beyond local elections.
“Unity forged under injustice is brittle. Lasting strength requires inclusivity,” Oki wrote. “Let this be a rallying cry: abandon the politics of imposition or risk losing Lagos to our own internal discord.”
Reacting to the mounting accusations, APC Lagos Publicity Secretary Seye Oladejo denied any wrongdoing, insisting that the primary process had not been concluded. He defended the use of consensus as a valid and constitutionally backed method that had helped reduce post-primary tensions in the past.
“Where consensus fails, delegates will vote. Nobody is being sidelined,” Oladejo stated.
Despite assurances from the party’s leadership, the storm within the Lagos APC appears far from over. With primaries slated for today, the credibility of the process—and the party’s unity—hangs in the balance.
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Politics
PDP in Crisis: The Political Exodus That May End Africa’s Largest Party
Published
3 days agoon
May 10, 2025
PDP in Crisis: The Political Exodus That May End Africa’s Largest Party
By George Omagbemi Sylvester
Never did we imagine that the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), once hailed as Africa’s largest political coalition, would witness such dramatic erosion from within. But in today’s Nigeria, where political loyalty is as volatile as the economy, the PDP is now hanging by a thread. What was once a formidable machinery that ruled Nigeria for 16 unbroken years has become a political shadow, limping from one internal crisis to another, gasping under the weight of ambition, betrayal and irrelevance.
This is no longer mere speculation. This is a full-blown political exodus.
The warning signs have long been in the air, but the silence of the party’s leadership only emboldened the defections. More PDP governors, senators and influential political actors are preparing to “throw in the dirty towel” to use a common Nigerian parlance and “get a change of toiletries” from a more promising political vehicle. The All Progressives Congress (APC), despite its governance failures, has remained the dominant force. Meanwhile, Labour Party (LP) and its ideological frontmen have seized the imagination of Nigeria’s politically conscious youth. Where is the PDP in all this? Nowhere near the pulse of the nation.
The Collapse of a Giant
Once upon a time, PDP stood like a colossus, commanding national attention and holding sway across all six geopolitical zones. In 2007, it controlled 28 out of 36 state governorships. By 2015, that number had dropped to 21. Today in 2025, the PDP controls just 9 states, an embarrassing decline that reveals the party’s waning appeal and fractured internal unity. Analysts have blamed this on the party’s failure to manage its primaries democratically, an outdated power-sharing formula and the overbearing influence of godfathers.
“Power is not something you hold forever. You must constantly renew your legitimacy through the people,” said late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, a former PDP leader known for his integrity. The party has clearly forgotten this principle.
The Atiku Albatross
The PDP’s 2023 presidential campaign was marred by one fatal error: the insistence of fielding Atiku Abubakar, a serial contestant whose political capital has been dwindling with each election cycle. The PDP’s inability to learn from its past mistakes and reinvent itself through younger, credible candidates shows how deeply the party has lost touch with contemporary realities.
Even within the party, Atiku is increasingly seen not as a unifier but a divider. His constant grip on the presidential ticket has frustrated younger aspirants and caused internal blockades that push members away.
“One man cannot hold a whole party to ransom,” said former Senate President Bukola Saraki in a private meeting leaked last year. That message reflects what many insiders are saying in hushed tones.
The Shockwaves of 2027
As the 2027 election cycle begins to take shape, permutations are in full gear. And while Atiku may be warming up for a record-breaking sixth attempt at the presidency, his influence is anything but stable. The PDP is already seeing rebellion from within, particularly from southern blocs who believe it is time the North stopped dominating the party’s presidential ambition.
Key political actors are already exploring alternative alliances. Rumours abound of secret talks between PDP governors and Tinubu’s men. Some are also aligning quietly with Peter Obi’s Labour Party, hoping to hedge their bets.
A recent poll by SBM Intelligence showed that 61% of PDP voters in the South-East and South-South are “open to switching allegiance” if the party fails to restructure before 2026. That’s a political red flag.
Why Governors Are Jumping Ship
What exactly is triggering this mass departure? The reasons are numerous, but four stand out:
Self-Preservation: Most Nigerian governors operate in a transactional political environment. Their loyalty lies not with ideology but with continuity of power. With the PDP unlikely to win the presidency in 2027, many are seeking new alliances to protect their political future.
Lack of Internal Democracy: The PDP has failed repeatedly to conduct transparent and fair primaries. Recent gubernatorial primaries in states like Delta, Rivers and Abia were marred by allegations of imposition and backdoor deals.
Atiku’s Grip: The feeling that Atiku is determined to contest in 2027, regardless of public sentiment, is unsettling. Many believe that as long as he remains a central force in the party, others have no space to thrive.
Tinubu’s Strategic Poaching: The current APC-led administration is systematically targeting opposition strongholds. Governors are being enticed with promises of federal appointments, project funding and legal shields from EFCC investigations.
Can the PDP Survive?
This is the pressing question. The answer lies in whether the party is willing to undergo painful introspection and renewal. It must adopt a bottom-up approach, re-engage with the grassroots, purge itself of godfatherism and allow credible young candidates to emerge.
It also needs to redefine its ideology. The APC may have failed economically, but it succeeded politically by branding itself as a party of change, regardless of how false that branding turned out to be. The PDP has no distinct narrative today.
What the Experts Say
Prof. Ayo Olukotun, a leading political scientist at Obafemi Awolowo University, recently argued: “The PDP is a classic case of political entropy. Without internal reform, it will disintegrate not by collapse, but by irrelevance.”
Similarly, Dr. Remi Adekoya, political analyst and author of “Politics of Identity in Nigeria”, notes: “The PDP has become a party for political pensioners. It is not inspiring to young voters nor innovative in its messaging.”
A Last Chance
If Atiku and the old guard truly care about the future of PDP, they must step back and allow a new leadership to emerge. Nigeria is moving on. The PDP must do the same. The 2027 ticket cannot be an inheritance. It must be earned. And it must reflect the shifting demographics of Nigerian voters, 65% of whom are under the age of 35.
This is not just about Atiku. It is about the soul of the PDP and whether it can reclaim its place in Nigerian political history or fade into obscurity like the National Republican Convention (NRC) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) of the 1990s.
Furthermore
History is not kind to political parties that fail to evolve. The PDP has been served many warnings. The defections we see today are not just acts of betrayal; they are symptoms of decay. If the party does not reinvent itself quickly and decisively, it will not survive the coming storm.
The words of Chinua Achebe ring truer than ever: “A man who brings home ant-infested firewood should not be surprised when lizards come to feast.” The PDP brought this upon itself. The only question now is: will it learn, or will it perish?
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Politics
Lagos Assembly Charges Security Agencies To Redouble Efforts In Combating Extortion By Miscreants
Published
6 days agoon
May 7, 2025
Lagos Assembly Charges Security Agencies To Redouble Efforts In Combating Extortion By Miscreants
Acknowledging that the scourge of brazen extortion by miscreants on Lagos streets was on the increase, the Lagos State House of Assembly has called on the Commissioner of Police, CP Olohunda Moshood Jimoh, and heads of other security agencies to intensify intelligence gathering with the latest security apparatuses, increase surveillance on black spots across the metropolis, and, where necessary, arrest such miscreants, and have the state rehabilitate them.
Hon. Sanni Okanlawon (representing Kosofe Constituency 1) raised the alarm at plenary Tuesday, May 6, under ‘Matter of Urgent Public Importance’ stating; “The unlawful extortion of stranded and innocent motorists by miscreants remains a growing concern that demands urgent attention. Nobody on the streets of Lagos is immune to their activities. If left unchecked, they could render the state unsafe.” He painted different unsavoury scenarios of how the street urchins operate brazenly, which he described as unacceptable, and called for urgent intervention to protect road users.
Supporting the motion, Hon. Kehinde Joseph (Alimosho Constituency II) noted that this particular trend threatens the safety and sanity of road transportation in the state. Hon. Desmond Elliot (Surulere Constituency 1) corroborated this and emphasised the need for active surveillance by security agencies. He also suggested the involvement of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA), noting that many of the offenders act under the influence of illegal substances.
Similarly, Hon. Aro Moshood (Ikorodu Constituency II) urged the Commissioner of Police to set up a tactical team dedicated mainly to road monitoring because “It is high time the government took the bull by the horns.” Commending Hon. Okanlawon for moving the motion, Hon. Adebola Shabi (Lagos Mainland Constituency 2) said local government chairmen have a huge role in combating this menace. Effective strategies, she added, have to be devised while recommending the installation of CCTV cameras at identified black spots.
However, Hon. Obafemi Saheed (Kosofe Constituency 2) disclosed that the government has invested heavily in security through the Lagos State Security Trust Fund, LSSTF, and, therefore, should not sit back and watch miscreants take over the city.
Speaker of the Assembly, Rt. Hon. (Dr.) Mudashiru Obasa commended Hon. Okanlawon and the lawmakers who contributed robustly to the debate. He said that the police and other security agencies, including the Lagos Neighbourhood Safety Corps (LNSC), must collaborate to ensure that Lagos remains safe for residents, commuters, and visitors alike.
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