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How Policy Flip-Flops Are Making Nigerians Poorer
How Policy Flip-Flops Are Making Nigerians Poorer
By Blaise Udunze
Nigeria’s deepening poverty crisis is no longer speculative; it is now statistically inevitable. Although the latest Consumer Price Index figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) suggest that headline inflation is cooling and growth indicators show tentative improvement, regrettably, more Nigerians are slipping below the poverty line. Reviewing the recent projections from PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026, it is alarming, which reveals that no fewer than two million additional Nigerians are expected to fall into poverty next year. This is expected to push the total number of poor people to about 141 million, roughly 62 percent of the population and the highest level ever recorded in the country’s history.
This grim outlook persists despite eight consecutive months of easing inflation and modest economic recovery, and as one can perceive, the contradiction is telling. The fact remains that macroeconomic signals are improving on paper, yet lived reality continues to deteriorate. It is glaring that the widening gap between policy metrics and human outcomes exposes a deeper truth in the sense that Nigeria’s poverty crisis is not simply the product of external shocks or temporary adjustment pains. It is the cumulative result of fragile policymaking, inconsistent reforms, weak institutional coordination, and a failure to sequence economic changes with adequate social protection. With these, it becomes clearer that poverty in Nigeria is no longer an unintended side effect of reform; it is increasingly its most visible outcome as identified today.
It would be recalled that the current administration in 2023, when it assumed office, promised a bold economic reset. At this point, the nation witnessed the fuel subsidy removal, exchange-rate liberalisation, and tighter fiscal discipline being introduced swiftly and applauded internationally for their courage and long-term logic. Notably, these reforms unleashed an economic storm whose aftershocks continue to batter households and currently resulting to the cost of a bag of rice that sold for about N35,000 two years ago now costs between N65,000 and N80,000, while a crate of eggs has risen from N1,200 to over N6,000 and basic staples like garri, tomatoes, and pepper have drifted beyond the reach of ordinary Nigerians. For millions, the economy did not reset; it snapped.
Inflation, often described by economists as a “silent tax,” has punished productivity, mocked thrift, and rewarded speculation.
Reports from the NBS’s December 2025 disclosed that headline inflation eased to 15.15 percent and according to it, this is due to a rebasing of the Consumer Price Index, down sharply from 34.8 percent a year earlier, this statistical moderation has brought little relief to households. Food inflation, at 10.84 percent year-on-year, and a marginal month-on-month decline may look reassuring on spreadsheets, but for families spending 70 to 80 percent of their income on food, such figures feel detached from reality. These figures are not only implausible but also insulting to those whose lives have been torn apart by the skyrocketing prices. With the realities facing the larger populace, Nigeria must be using another mathematics.
Nigeria may have changed its base year, but it has not changed the harsh arithmetic of survival.
PwC’s data underscores this disconnect, as nominal household spending rose by nearly 20 percent in 2025, real household spending contracted by 2.5 percent, reflecting the erosive impact of rising food, transport, and energy costs. The painful part of it, is that Nigerians are spending more money to consume less, and this is to say that growth, hovering around 4 percent, is not strong enough to absorb shocks or lift households meaningfully. As analysts note, Nigeria would require sustained growth of 7 to 9 percent to make a significant dent in poverty. That is to say that anything less merely slows the descent.
The structural weakness of the economy is compounded by policy inconsistency. Nigeria’s economic landscape is littered with abrupt shifts, subsidy removals without buffers, currency reforms without stabilisation mechanisms and trade policies that oscillate between restriction and openness. For households and small businesses, which employ most Nigerians, this unpredictability makes planning impossible. The economy has constantly being faced with price volatility, income shocks, and lost jobs because these are the ripple effects of every policy reversal. Uncertainty itself has become a poverty multiplier.
Nowhere is this fragility more evident than in food systems and rural livelihoods, and this has been where insecurity has merged with policy failure to create a new poverty spiral. Across farmlands in the North and Middle Belt, crops rot unharvested as banditry and insurgency force farmers off their land. Nigeria’s largely agrarian economy has been crippled by violence that disrupts planting cycles, destroys infrastructure, and displaces communities. The result is both income poverty for farmers denied access to their livelihoods and food inflation that erodes purchasing power nationwide.
For record purposes, earlier last year, the NBS Multidimensional Poverty Index showed that 63 percent of Nigerians, about 133 million people, are multidimensionally poor, with poverty heavily concentrated in insecure regions. Findings showed that about 86 million of the poor live in the North, and this is where insecurity is most severe. This record showed that rural poverty stands at 72 percent,c compared to 42 percent in urban areas, and while the states most affected by banditry and insurgency record poverty rates as high as 91 percent. Insecurity is no longer just a security problem; it is one of Nigeria’s most powerful poverty drivers.
The economic cost of insecurity in Nigeria today is staggering. This is because the conservative estimates suggest Nigeria loses about $15 billion annually, which is roughly equivalent to N20 trillion, due to insecurity-induced disruptions across agriculture, trade, manufacturing, and transportation. At the same time, security spending now consumes up to a quarter of the federal budget. In just three years, over N4 trillion has been spent on security, which crowded out investment in health, education, power, and infrastructure. Every naira spent managing perpetual violence is a naira not invested in preventing poverty, even as poverty deepens, the state’s fiscal response reveals a troubling misalignment of priorities. The 2026 federal budget, estimated at N58.47 trillion, ironically allocates just N206.5 billion to projects directly tagged as poverty alleviation and this only amounts to about 0.35 percent of total spending and less than one percent of the capital budget. In a country where over 60 percent of citizens live below the poverty line, this allocation borders on policy negligence.
Worse still, over 96 percent of this already meagre poverty envelope sits under the Service Wide Vote through the National Poverty Reduction with Growth Strategy, largely as recurrent provisions. All ministries, departments, and agencies combined account for barely N6.5 billion in poverty-related projects. This fragmentation reflects a deeper institutional failure, that is to say, poverty reduction exists more as a line item than as a coherent national mission.
Where MDA-level interventions exist, they are largely palliative and scattered, grain distribution in select communities, tricycles and motorcycles for empowerment, and small scale skills acquisition for women and youths. The largest such project, a N2.87 billion tricycle and motorcycle scheme under a federal cooperative college, accounts for nearly half of all MDA-based poverty spending. The fact remains that the various interventions may offer temporary relief, and they do little to address structural drivers of poverty such as job creation, productivity, market access and human capital development.
Even the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation illustrates the problem just as its budget jumped sharply in 2026, much of the increase went into administrative and capital items, office furniture, equipment, international travel, retreats, and systems automation rather than direct poverty-fighting programmes. This reflects a familiar Nigerian paradox: institutions grow, but impact shrinks.
International partners have been blunt in their assessments. The World Bank estimates that Nigeria spends just 0.14 percent of GDP on social protection, which is far below the global and regional averages. Only 44 percent of safety-net benefits actually reach the poor, rendering the system inefficient and largely ineffective. PwC similarly warns that without targeted job creation, productivity-focused reforms, and effective social protection, poverty will continue to rise, undermining domestic consumption and straining public finances further.
Fiscal fragility compounds the crisis. The N58.18 trillion 2026 budget carries a deficit of N23.85 trillion, with debt servicing projected at N15.52 trillion, nearly half of expected revenue. The public debt has ballooned to over N152 trillion. The contradiction here is that Nigeria is borrowing not to expand productive capacity but to keep the machinery of government running. The truth is not far-fetched because, as debt crowds out development spending, households are forced to pay privately for public goods, education, healthcare, water, deepening inequality and entrenching poverty across generations.
To be clear, not all signals are negative. This is because opportunities exist if reforms are sustained and properly sequenced. Regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area could diversify exports and create jobs. But reform momentum without inclusion and institutional capacity risks becoming another missed opportunity.
This is the central tragedy of Nigeria’s moment. The country is attempting necessary reforms in an environment of weak buffers, fragile institutions, and low trust. Poverty is therefore not accidental. It is the predictable outcome of inconsistency, reforms without protection, stabilisation without security, and budgets without people.
Nigeria faces an undeniable choice. It can continue down a path where fragile policies deepen deprivation and erode trust, or it can build a disciplined, coordinated framework that aligns reforms with social protection, security, and inclusive growth. Poverty is not destiny. But escaping it requires more than courage in reform announcements; it demands consistency, compassion, and the political will to place human welfare at the centre of economic strategy.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
The Enemies Within:
Jonahs Are Not Manageable — Dr. Chris Okafor
…….“To remove Jonah, you must bring Jesus into the matter.”
When a “Jonah” enters a person’s life, confusion, gossip, blackmail, betrayal, and the pull-him-down syndrome often follow. But the moment Jesus Christ is invited into the situation, the storm subsides and stability is restored.
This was the central message delivered by the Generational Prophet of God and Senior Pastor of Grace Nation Global, Dr. Chris Okafor, during the midweek non-denominational Prophetic Healing, Deliverance and Solutions Service (PHDS) held at the international headquarters of Grace Nation Worldwide in Ojodu Berger, Lagos, Nigeria.
The Clergyman also declared that Nothing Happens Without Spiritual Influence
In his sermon titled “The Enemies Within,” Dr. Okafor declared that nothing happens without spiritual involvement. According to him, every visible battle has an invisible root.
Referencing the biblical story of Jonah, the Man of God explained that Jonah’s presence on the ship gave access to a contrary spirit that tormented everyone onboard.
Despite the losses suffered by innocent traders and sailors, the storm persisted because of one man’s disobedience.
However, he noted that when Jesus speaks into a situation, every storm must obey. Just as Christ rebuked the storm and it ceased, so too will the storms in believers’ lives subside when He is invited into their “boat.”
*The Impact of a Jonah*
Dr. Okafor further emphasized that “Jonahs” are difficult to manage. When such individuals are present in one’s circle, progress becomes delayed.
What should ordinarily manifest quickly may be prolonged or frustrated because someone close—someone who understands you deeply—may be operating as a spiritual adversary.
He explained that negative narratives, unnecessary battles, and unexplained setbacks often begin when a “Jonah” gains access to a person’s inner circle.
*The Solution*
“To remove Jonah from the boat of your life,” the Generational Prophet declared, “you must invite Jesus Christ into the matter.”
According to him, when Jesus takes control of the boat, the plans of the enemy are overturned.
What was designed for downfall becomes a testimony. No storm or battle can succeed where Christ reigns, and the enemy is ultimately put to shame.
The midweek service witnessed a strong prophetic atmosphere, with the power of God evident through deliverance, restoration, and divine revelations.
The Generational Prophet ministered deeply in the prophetic, calling out names, villages, and addressing alleged spiritual strongholds, as many lives were reportedly restored—all to the glory of God.
By Sunday Adeyemi
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FROM BORDER TO MARKETS: HOW NIGERIA’S REFORMS ARE REWRITING AND MODERNISING TRADE FACILITATION By O’tega Ogra
FROM BORDER TO MARKETS: HOW NIGERIA’S REFORMS ARE REWRITING AND MODERNISING TRADE FACILITATION
By O’tega Ogra
On the surface, the 2026 World Customs Organization (WCO) Technology Conference in Abu Dhabi, held in the last week of January, followed a familiar script: flags, formal sessions, carefully worded speeches. But beneath the choreography, something more consequential was unfolding. As customs chiefs and trade officials compared notes on the future of borders, Nigeria arrived not with theory, but with a working proposition.
The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) Modernisation Project, being implemented through Trade Modernisation Project (TMP) Limited, unveiled to a global audience of customs administrators and policy leaders a window into how Africa’s largest economy is confronting one of the most complex challenges in public administration: reforming the machinery of trade while it is still running.
For decades, customs reform was treated largely as a technical exercise—frequent patches here, shoddy fixes there; new software in one corner, revised procedures in another. Nigeria’s presence in Abu Dhabi signalled something different. TMP Limited, working in partnership with the NCS, advanced the argument that trade is a cornerstone of economic development and must be supported by organic, sustainable partner ecosystems. Such ecosystems deliver speed and trust, revenue and credibility, and secure borders without stifling commerce.
That argument resonated in a room increasingly aware that global trade is no longer defined solely by tariffs and treaties, but by data, interoperability, and the quiet efficiency of systems that simply work.
The annual WCO Technology Conference has, in recent years, become a barometer for the direction of global trade governance. This year’s discussions reflected a shared anxiety: supply chains are more fragile, compliance risks are rising, and governments face mounting pressure to collect revenue without discouraging investment. Customs administrations now sit at the intersection of all three.
Nigeria’s response has been to attempt a full reset.
At the heart of this effort is the NCS Modernisation Project, implemented through a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) arrangement with TMP Limited as the concessionaire. The project seeks to replace fragmented technology deployments and manual processes within the Nigeria Customs Service with a single, integrated framework. This is anchored on B’Odogwu, a Unified Customs Management System (UCMS) that brings together cargo clearance, risk management, payments, and inter-agency collaboration. The ambition is sweeping—and so are the stakes.
Alhaji Saleh Ahmadu, OON, Chairman of TMP, framed the initiative as nothing less than an institutional reconstruction, designed to position the NCS at the forefront of global customs administration technology, aligned with international standards and assurance frameworks.
“Digital trade modernisation is not just about upgrading systems,” he told participants in Abu Dhabi. “It is about upgrading trust, predictability, and confidence in how trade flows through our borders.”
That choice of words matters. Nigeria’s economy has long struggled with the perception gap between its size and the ease of doing business. Investors cite delays. Traders complain of opacity. Government points to revenue leakages. In this context, customs reform becomes as much a credibility project as a technical one.
Saleh’s message was timely and direct: modern trade demands modern customs. Data-driven processes, automation, and risk-based controls are no longer luxuries; they are prerequisites for competitiveness in a world where capital moves faster than policy.
The institutional face of this digital transformation is the Comptroller-General of Customs, Bashir Adewale Adeniyi, who led Nigeria’s delegation to Abu Dhabi. His message reflected a subtle but important shift in how customs leadership now understands its role.
“Customs administrations today must evolve from gatekeepers to facilitators of legitimate trade,” Adeniyi said. “Nigeria’s customs modernisation project reflects our determination to place the Nigeria Customs Service at the centre of national economic transformation.”
It is a familiar refrain globally, but one that carries particular weight in Nigeria, where customs revenue remains a critical pillar of public finance. Automation, Adeniyi argued, is not about weakening control; it is about strengthening it through intelligence rather than discretion.
Risk management systems reduce unnecessary physical inspections. Integrated platforms limit human contact. Data analytics improve compliance targeting. When executed well, the result is faster clearance for compliant traders and tighter scrutiny for high-risk consignments.
In Abu Dhabi, peers from Asia, Europe, and Latin America listened closely to Nigeria’s presentation. Reforming customs in a small, open economy is one thing. Doing so in a market of over 200 million people, home to some of Africa’s busiest ports and its largest economy, is quite another.
Nigeria’s engagement emphasised that customs modernisation is embedded within a broader economic reform agenda under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR. Simplifying trade procedures, strengthening revenue assurance, and aligning with international standards form part of a wider effort to reposition the economy for investment-led growth.
What makes the project particularly noteworthy is its insistence on end-to-end coherence. Rather than digitising isolated functions, the reform aims to connect agencies, harmonise data, and reduce duplication across government—an all-of-government approach that acknowledges an uncomfortable truth: trade friction is often created not at the border, but between institutions.
The WCO 2026 Technology Conference offered Nigeria more than a platform; it provided a stress test. Questions from peers were pointed. How will change be sustained across political cycles? How will capacity be built? How will entrenched institutional behaviours be unlearned?
The responses were pragmatic. Reform is being phased. Training programmes are ongoing. International benchmarks are being adopted not as slogans, but as operating standards. There were no claims of perfection—only a clear statement of intent.
“Our engagement here underscores Nigeria’s commitment to international cooperation,” Adeniyi noted. “We are learning, sharing, and contributing to global conversations on the future of customs administration.”
That contribution matters. As Africa moves to deepen regional trade under continental frameworks, customs efficiency will determine whether integration succeeds in practice or remains aspirational on paper. Nigeria’s experience, if successful, could offer a valuable template for other developing economies navigating similar constraints.
In Abu Dhabi, the mood was cautious but curious. Reform fatigue is real in many countries. Yet there was a growing sense that Nigeria’s effort—precisely because of its scale and difficulty—deserves attention.
Borders are rarely glamorous. But they are decisive. In choosing to modernise its borders in public, under global scrutiny, Nigeria is signalling something beyond technical competence. It is signalling seriousness.
And in global trade, seriousness still counts.
O’tega Ogra is Senior Special Assistant to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, responsible for the Office of Digital Engagement, Communications and Strategy in the Presidency.
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Makinde Lashes Out at Wike: “A Vagabond Unfit for PDP” — Reckoning Within Nigeria’s Oldest Opposition Party
Makinde Lashes Out at Wike: “A Vagabond Unfit for PDP” — Reckoning Within Nigeria’s Oldest Opposition Party
By George Omagbemi Sylvester | SaharaWeeklyNG.com
“Governor Seyi Makinde’s explosive rebuke of Nyesom Wike exposes deep fractures within the PDP and signals a defining moment for the future of Nigeria’s opposition politics.”
In the sun-baked political theatre of Ibadan, Oyo State, a seismic rupture has opened within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Nigeria’s once-dominant opposition force. Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde delivered a blistering public indictment of Federal Capital Territory Minister Nyesom Wike; one that goes far beyond intra-party friction, piercing into the soul of Nigerian party politics itself. Makinde unapologetically branded Wike a “vagabond,” openly regretted his past alignment with him during the tumultuous 2023 general elections, and rejected any lingering influence that Wike and his faction might attempt to wield within the PDP’s structure.
Addressing a gathering at the commissioning of the PDP Secretariat in Oke-Ado, Makinde’s remarks cut across polite political disagreement and veered into stark moral condemnation. He spoke not as a factional leader but as a self-declared reformer seeking to reclaim the party from forces he believes have undermined its principles and prospects.
This confrontation is not trivial. It reflects a broader and enduring crisis within the PDP, a party still grappling with the aftershocks of losing federal power over a decade ago and struggling to define its identity ahead of future elections.
The Anatomy of a Rift.
Makinde’s core accusation was two-fold. First, he asserted that elements within the PDP (whom he repeatedly labeled vagabonds) used internal party mechanisms not to strengthen the PDP but to serve interests outside the party’s mandate. Second, Makinde publicly distanced himself from those figures, including Wike, whose conduct he says betrayed the party during the 2023 elections.
Makinde’s account is unambiguous: “When I came into government in 2019, and even up to 2023, I found myself aligned with some of these forces. But I have reflected, repented and resolved never to allow that again.”
His choice of words carries biblical weight (repentance) suggesting not mere political disagreement, but moral recalibration.
For context, many analysts point to the 2015 loss of federal power by the PDP as the genesis of deep internal fractures. That defeat created a leadership vacuum, which subsequent factions sought to fill, sometimes through means that rankled party loyalists. Makinde invoked a traditional Yoruba proverb to illustrate his point: where there is peace in a household, it is not because all is well, but because the disorderly elements have not yet grown up. He applied this proverb directly to PDP’s internal disruption, asserting that those elements had, at one time, “practised their vagabondry” within the party until formally expelled in late 2025.
This “expulsion” refers to actions taken during the PDP’s controversial national convention in Ibadan in late 2025, where several leading figures (including Wike) were voted out of key leadership roles amid factional legal battles. That convention itself was mired in legal challenges and internal strife, reflecting a party deeply fragmented.
Makinde’s words were deliberately provocative. To brand a senior party member and cabinet minister as a vagabond in political parlance is to label him unreliable, unprincipled, and opportunistic, traits that go to the heart of public trust.
Wike: A Political Trajectory Under Scrutiny.
Nyesom Wike is no ordinary foot soldier in Nigerian politics. A seasoned operative and former governor of Rivers State, Wike has cultivated a reputation for bold, sometimes abrasive, political maneuvers. His intervention in party affairs, especially beyond his home state, has drawn admiration from some quarters and ire from others. Yet what Makinde’s critique suggests is that Wike’s conduct has become a flashpoint for deeper questions about loyalty, ideology and the purpose of party politics itself.
Wike’s defenders argue that he has consistently asserted that his actions, including positions taken during the 2023 elections, were guided by principles of fairness and justice which though not without controversy. Earlier reports show that in 2024 he claimed he had “no apologies” for his role in opposing the PDP’s presidential bid, insisting he acted not out of disloyalty but conviction.
To them, Wike represents a school of Nigerian politics that privileges tactical calculations over consensus building, a style that resonates in Nigeria’s often fractious political environment but also deepens fault lines within parties like the PDP.
Expert Analysis: What This Means for Nigerian Politics.
To understand the implications of this confrontation, we must consider scholarly perspectives on party fragmentation and political behavior in Nigeria.
Political analyst Dr. Habeeb Lawal, Lecturer in African Political Studies at the University of Lagos, argues that “the PDP’s identity crisis stems from a broader crisis of political institutionalisation in Nigeria. When politicians prioritise personal ambition over party principles, it weakens not only party cohesion but democratic governance itself.”
Lawal’s analysis underscores a pattern endemic to Nigerian politics: parties often serve as platforms for personal advancement rather than vehicles for ideological consistency or policy advocacy. In that sense, Makinde’s denunciation of Wike is not merely personal, but symptomatic of a larger systemic tension.
Similarly, Professor Modupe Akinola, an expert in political ethics at Ibadan University, suggests that public leaders must be held to standards that transcend mere tactical disagreements. “A party cannot rebuild itself on the foundation of individual power struggles,” she said. “If you cannot articulate a vision for the common good beyond your own political survival, you risk hollowing out the very institution you claim to defend.”
Her insight points to a central dilemma: the PDP’s relevance depends on its ability to project unity without quashing legitimate disagreement, and to tolerate diversity of thought without descending into factional warfare.
Beyond the Words: What Comes Next?
Makinde’s remarks did more than shock; they reframed the conversation around party culture and accountability. He reaffirmed confidence in the Nigerian judiciary as a neutral arbiter, a notable stance considering the party’s history of litigating internal disputes. “Truth will always prevail,” Makinde said, asserting that legal remedies remain central to resolving the PDP’s internal conflicts.
Yet the deeper impact of his declarations will be measured in the weeks and months to come. Will the PDP rally behind a renewed emphasis on discipline and unity? Or will this rupture deepen, inviting further splintering and loss of coherence?
International observers, particularly those who monitor democratic transitions in multi-ethnic societies, will watch closely. Political cohesion in major parties is often a bellwether for democratic resilience. Nigeria’s fragile democracy, still navigating its third decade of uninterrupted civilian rule, cannot afford weakened opposition at a time when accountability and political alternatives are essential.
Parting Thoughts: A Reckoning That Cannot Be Ignored.
What Governor Makinde articulated in Ibadan is more than intra-party quarrel; it is a clarion call for introspection within Nigerian opposition politics. By calling out what he describes as vagabondry, he has invited the PDP (and the broader political class) to confront uncomfortable truths about ambition, loyalty, principle and reform.
Whether this confrontation leads to renewal or further fracture remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: Nigeria’s political story in this era will not be written by those who refuse to address the deep contradictions within their own ranks.
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