Tinubu at the Crossroads: The 2027 Calculus, Religious Balance and the Possible Exit of Shettima.

By George Omagbemi Sylvester 

“A Presidency Tested by Power, Perception and Nigeria’s Fragile Unity.”

As Nigeria inches toward the 2027 general elections, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu stands before one of the most consequential political decisions of his presidency: whether to retain Vice President Kashim Shettima or recalibrate his re-election ticket by choosing a Christian running mate. What initially appeared as insider speculation has now evolved into a serious national conversation touching on RELIGION, POWER, ELECTORAL SURVIVAL and the LONG-TERM cohesion of Africa’s most populous democracy.

Reports suggesting that Tinubu may drop Shettima have generated intense debate across political, religious and diplomatic circles. While the presidency has neither confirmed nor denied such intentions, the mere plausibility of the move speaks volumes about the unresolved tensions created by the Muslim-Muslim ticket that brought the All Progressives Congress (APC) to power in 2023. That ticket, though electorally successful, left deep emotional and symbolic scars in a country where religion remains a defining marker of identity, belonging and political legitimacy.

Tinubu’s defenders have long argued that competence should trump identity. Yet politics is not practiced in abstraction. Nigeria’s history shows that perception often matters as much as policy and symbolism can be as powerful as legislation. The 2023 election may have proven that a Muslim-Muslim ticket could win, but it did not prove that it could unite.

Across Nigeria’s Christian communities (particularly in the Middle Belt and parts of the South) there remains a lingering sense of exclusion. This sentiment has been amplified by persistent insecurity, the targeting of Christian villages by armed groups and a widespread belief that the federal government has not demonstrated sufficient urgency or empathy. In this context, the discussion about Tinubu’s 2027 ticket is not merely about Shettima as an individual, but about what the presidency represents and whose voices are visibly acknowledged at the highest level of power.

It is therefore significant that calls for a Christian running mate are not coming only from southern Christian leaders. Influential northern groups, including inter-ethnic and inter-faith coalitions, have publicly urged the president to consider religious balance in 2027. Their argument is not rooted in hostility toward Shettima, but in political realism. Nigeria, they insist, cannot afford to normalize exclusion in a nation already stretched by ethno-religious fault lines.

Political analysts note that the APC’s internal dynamics further complicate the matter. Kashim Shettima represents continuity, loyalty and northern political strength. Removing him risks alienating a key bloc that remains critical to Tinubu’s electoral math. Northern Nigeria, despite economic hardship and security crises, continues to command decisive voting power. Any perception that the vice president was sacrificed to appease international opinion or southern Christian pressure could provoke backlash within the party and beyond it.

Yet retaining Shettima carries its own risks. The 2027 election will not be fought under the same conditions as 2023. Tinubu now campaigns not as an insurgent political strategist but as an incumbent president whose record will be scrutinized domestically and internationally. Economic reforms, subsidy removal, inflation, currency instability and widespread hardship have reshaped voter expectations. In such an environment, symbolism regains importance. A re-election ticket that appears insensitive to diversity could prove costly, particularly among swing voters and younger Nigerians who increasingly frame politics through inclusion and justice rather than tradition.

International perception also plays a subtle but undeniable role. Nigeria’s strategic partners in the West have grown more vocal about religious freedom, minority protection and inclusive governance. While there is no publicly documented evidence of direct foreign pressure on Tinubu to change his ticket, diplomatic conversations around security and human rights inevitably shape elite political thinking. In a global era where democratic credentials influence investment, security cooperation and diplomatic leverage, Nigeria’s internal political signals matter far beyond its borders.

Scholars have long warned that when democratic systems fail to reflect pluralism, legitimacy erodes. Professor Jibrin Ibrahim, a respected political scientist, has argued that “Nigeria’s stability depends not only on elections, but on the perception that power rotates fairly across identities.” Similarly, Professor Amina Mama, writing on governance in divided societies, has emphasized that “symbolic inclusion is not cosmetic; it is foundational to democratic trust.”

Critics of the proposed change counter that competence and loyalty should outweigh religious arithmetic. They warn that dropping Shettima could fracture the APC and create an image of a president who discards allies when convenient. Some religious leaders have even cautioned that such a move could be interpreted as weakness or betrayal, particularly in a political culture that prizes loyalty. From this perspective, Tinubu’s silence on the matter is itself strategic, allowing speculation to circulate without committing to a course of action too early.

What is often missing from the debate, however, is a deeper reflection on Nigeria’s democratic maturity. The recurring obsession with religious balancing on tickets is itself a symptom of unresolved nation-building. In stable democracies, leadership choices rarely provoke existential anxiety about identity. In Nigeria, they do not just because the state has historically failed to guarantee equal protection, opportunity and justice to all citizens. Until those structural issues are addressed, symbolism will continue to carry disproportionate weight.

The question, therefore, is not simply whether Tinubu will drop Shettima, but what such a decision would signal. Retaining him could be framed as consistency and confidence. Replacing him with a Christian running mate could be framed as reconciliation and responsiveness. Either choice will reshape the political narrative of 2027 and define Tinubu’s legacy as either a consolidator of power or a bridge-builder in a fractured republic.

For Vice President Shettima himself, the speculation is a reminder of the precarious nature of power in Nigerian politics. Vice presidents, historically, have often been expendable pieces on the chessboard of ambition. From Alex Ekwueme to Atiku Abubakar to Yemi Osinbajo, the office has rarely guaranteed political security. The current moment fits that pattern, underscoring how institutions remain weaker than personalities.

As Nigeria approaches another electoral crossroads, the stakes could not be higher. The 2027 election will test not only the APC’s internal coherence but Nigeria’s capacity to learn from its own tensions. A country battling insecurity, poverty and declining trust in public institutions cannot afford leadership decisions that deepen alienation.

In the final analysis, Tinubu’s dilemma reflects Nigeria’s unfinished project. Democracy here is still negotiating its relationship with identity, equity and power. Whether he chooses continuity or recalibration, the decision must rise above short-term electoral calculation and speak to a broader vision of national healing.

History will judge this moment not by political cleverness alone, but by whether leadership choices helped steady a fragile nation or further polarized it. In that sense, the 2027 ticket is not just a campaign tool; it is a statement about the kind of Nigeria its leaders believe is possible; and worth fighting for.

Politics Is Grassroots: How the NWOBI POLITICAL DYNASTY and the Diaspora Are Rewriting APC Mobilisation in Enugu.

By George Omagbemi Sylvester | Published by SaharaWeeklyNG.com

“From Awgu Ward II to the Global Nigerian Diaspora, a New Model of Political Organisation Emerges Under the Leadership of High Chief Francis Ossy Nwobi and Prince Barr. Smart I. Nwobi.”

On Sunday, 18 January 2026, Awgu Ward II in Enugu State became more than a routine political gathering point; it transformed into a symbolic theatre of Nigeria’s evolving democratic mobilisation.

The official flag-off of the All Progressives Congress (APC) E-Registration Exercise in the ward marked a strategic convergence of grassroots politics, elite coordination and diaspora engagement, anchored by two influential figures of the Nwobi political dynasty: High Chief Francis Ossy Nwobi, CEO of Fontana Oil Ltd and Prince Barrister Smart I. Nwobi, CEO of Nwobi Attorneys Chamber South Africa and President of the Nigerian Union South Africa (NUSA).

Their joint appearance and declaration of support for the APC sent a clear political message: MODERN NIGERIAN POLITICS CANNOT SUCCEED WITHOUT SYNCHRONIZING LOCAL LEGITIMACY WITH DIASPORA INFLUENCE.

Grassroots as the Foundation of Power. Addressing party faithful, community leaders and residents of Awgu Ward II, High Chief Francis Ossy Nwobi articulated a philosophy that has increasingly gained traction among political theorists and democratic reform advocates: “Politics is grassroots.” This assertion is not rhetorical. It reflects a long-established principle in political science that durable political authority flows upward from community consent, not downward from elite imposition.

Political scholar Robert Putnam famously argued that democratic success is deeply linked to social capital and civic engagement at the local level. In similar vein, High Chief Nwobi emphasised that his entry into partisan politics was driven not by ambition, but by conviction and specifically, conviction inspired by what he described as the visible governance outcomes and developmental strides of His Excellency, Dr. Barrister Peter Ndubuisi Mbah, the Executive Governor of Enugu State.

By anchoring his support in observed governance performance rather than partisan sentiment, Nwobi framed political participation as a civic responsibility rooted in accountability, not personality worship.

Governor Peter Mbah and the Governance Question. Since assuming office, Governor Peter Mbah has consistently positioned governance around efficiency, institutional reform and results-driven administration. While political opinions may differ across ideological lines, there is broad consensus among policy analysts that performance-based legitimacy is fast replacing rhetoric-based loyalty in Nigeria’s sub-national politics.

Development economists such as Amartya Sen have long argued that the true test of leadership lies not in promises, but in capability expansion; how governance tangibly improves citizens lives. It is within this analytical framework that supporters, including High Chief Nwobi, situate their endorsement of the Enugu State governor.

This framing is crucial for international audiences and it demonstrates a shift away from identity politics toward measurable governance outcomes, a transition many African democracies are still struggling to achieve.

Diaspora Power and Political Modernisation. Perhaps the most strategic dimension of the Awgu Ward II event was the formal recognition of Prince Barrister Smart I. Nwobi as Diaspora National Coordinator and leader of the “Tomorrow Is Here Movement.” This development underscores a growing political reality. The Nigerian diaspora is no longer a peripheral actor in national politics.

With remittances consistently ranking among Nigeria’s largest sources of foreign exchange, the diaspora has evolved from an economic contributor into a political stakeholder with organisational capacity, global networks and advocacy leverage.

As President of NUSA and a legal practitioner based in South Africa, Prince Smart I. Nwobi embodies what migration scholars describe as transnational political agency, having the ability of migrants to influence political processes across borders. Political sociologist Thomas Faist notes that such actors often serve as bridges between domestic politics and global democratic norms.

In his address, Prince Nwobi pledged both local ward-level mobilisation and diaspora-wide political support for the APC and its flagship leadership in Enugu State. This dual-track approach reflects a sophisticated understanding of contemporary politics: votes are local, but legitimacy is increasingly global.

The APC E-Registration as Institutional Reform. The E-Registration exercise itself represents a critical component of internal party reform. Across democratic systems, party institutionalisation is recognised as essential to political stability. According to Samuel Huntington, weak parties produce unstable democracies, while strong, transparent party systems deepen democratic culture.

By flagging off the E-Registration process in Awgu Ward II, the APC demonstrated an attempt (however incremental) to modernise its membership database, improve internal accountability and expand participation. When viewed through this lens, the event transcended symbolism and became a test case for party renewal at the grassroots level.

The presence of influential local and diaspora leaders added credibility to the exercise, reinforcing public confidence in the process.

A Political Dynasty, Not a Personality Cult. Critically, the narrative emerging from Awgu Ward II was not one of personal glorification, but of institutional continuity and civic duty. The Nwobi political dynasty, as presented, positions itself not as a family empire, but as a political tradition rooted in service, organisation and community legitimacy.

Political historian Alexis de Tocqueville warned that democracies fail when elites detach from the people. In contrast, the Nwobi model (as articulated during the event) seeks relevance through constant engagement with ordinary citizens, reinforcing the democratic chain between leaders and the led.

Implications for Enugu State and Beyond. For Enugu State, the Awgu Ward II mobilisation signals growing internal cohesion within the APC and a recalibration of its grassroots strategy. For Nigeria more broadly, it illustrates an emerging political pattern: diaspora actors are no longer content with commentary; they are now active organisers and mobilisers.

International observers often criticise African politics for elite capture and weak civic participation. Events such as this complicate that narrative, revealing a more nuanced political landscape where local wards and global citizens intersect.

Furthermore: Tomorrow Is Here, If the Grassroots Decide. The official flag-off of the APC E-Registration Exercise in Awgu Ward II on 18 January 2026 was not merely a party activity. It was a political statement and one that reaffirmed a timeless democratic truth. Which is “Power begins with the people.”

Through the combined leadership of High Chief Francis Ossy Nwobi and Prince Barrister Smart I. Nwobi, the event showcased a model of political engagement that merges grassroots legitimacy with diaspora strength, local accountability with global perspective.

As political philosopher Hannah Arendt observed, power exists only where people act together. If Awgu Ward II is any indication, Nigerian politics may be witnessing a gradual, if uneven, return to that foundational principle.

“Tomorrow, indeed, is here and we as grassroots have already moved.” According to Prince, Barrister Smart I Nwobi.

Oyo MattersAFCON 2025: Ajadi Hails Courageous Super Eagles For Winning Bronze, Urges Govt To Focus More On Sports As Youth Development

A leading governorship aspirant on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP) in Oyo State, Ambassador Olufemi Ajadi Oguntoyinbo has congratulated the Super Eagles of Nigeria for winning the Bronze Medal at the 2025 African Cup of Nations which will come to a close today, (Sunday) in Morocco.

This is as he also called on governments and the well to do Nigerians to invest more in sports to serve as part of youth empowerment.

The Super Eagles on Saturday defeated Pharaoh of Egypt in the third place match 4-2 on penalties. With this victory, the team received the Bronze Medal.

In a statement issued on Sunday, Ajadi commended the Super Eagles for winning the third position among the 24 countries that competed at the tournament.

He specifically praised the determination, and commitment of the Super Eagles players to bring honour to the country.

Ajadi called on the team handlers and the Nigeria Football Federation, (NFF) to keep the team together and ensure that they are adequately rewarded to ensure future success.

He also advised the coaching crew of the Super Eagles to employ penalty specialists to train them in penalty shot out as he applauded the goalkeeper in savings some of the penalties.

Ajadi used the medium to admonish the Federal Government and various state governments to prioritize the development of the youths through sporting activities.

The gubernatorial hopeful, who as a philanthropist has put youth developments in the front burner over the years, said that governments and well to do Nigerians should help in the development of the youths to prevent them from going into social malaise.

He urged the government to use sports to engage teeming youths in the country, saying that this will safe them from roaming the streets and mass unemployment.